Data mining for lifetime prediction of metallic components

The ability to accurately predict the lifetime of building components is crucial to optimizing building design, material selection and scheduling of required maintenance. This paper discusses a number of possible data mining methods that can be applied to do the lifetime prediction of metallic components and how different sources of service life information could be integrated to form the basis of the lifetime prediction model

The user query based learning system for lifetime prediction of metallic components

Real-World Data Mining Applications generally do not end up with the creation of the models. The use of the model is the final purpose especially in prediction tasks. The problem arises when the model is built based on much more information than that the user can provide in using the model. As a result, the performance of model reduces drastically due to many missing attributes values. This paper develops a new learning system framework, called as User Query Based Learning System (UQBLS), for building data mining models best suitable for users use. We demonstrate its deployment in a real-world application of the lifetime prediction of metallic components in buildings

A user driven data mining process model and learning system

This paper deals with the problem of using the data mining models in a real-world situation where the user can not provide all the inputs with which the predictive model is built. A learning system framework, Query Based Learning System (QBLS), is developed for improving the performance of the predictive models in practice where not all inputs are available for querying to the system. The automatic feature selection algorithm called Query Based Feature Selection (QBFS) is developed for selecting features to obtain a balance between the relative minimum subset of features and the relative maximum classification accuracy. Performance of the QBLS system and the QBFS algorithm is successfully demonstrated with a real-world application

Developing a best practice framework for implementing public private partnerships (PPP) in Hong Kong

Public Private Partnership (PPP) is a well established methodology for procuring public works projects. By incorporating the private sector’s expertise, efficiency, innovation, business sense, risk sharing, financing etc. into public works projects, the quality of public services and facilities can be uplifted. Like many jurisdictions, Hong Kong is also keen to take aboard this methodology which is so familiar but yet so distant. Although they have been one of the first jurisdictions to utilise the private sector in public works projects, their comfortable financial reserves has meant that there has been no urge to push the movement until recently. PPP has become increasingly popular amongst governments. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government is no exception. Some of the more active works departments have commissioned studies to investigate the best ways to deliver these projects, others have even trialed the method themselves. The efficiency Unit of the HKSAR government has also become an active arm in conducting research in this area. Although so, the information that is currently available is still very broad. Building from their works there is a need to develop a best practice framework for implementing PPP projects in Hong Kong by incorporating international experiences. To develop a best practice framework will require thorough investigation into the benefits, difficulties and critical success factor of PPP. PPP should also be compared with other procurement methods. In order to do so it is important to clearly understand the local situation by an analysis of projects conducted to date. Lessons learnt can further be derived from other countries and incorporated to those derived locally. Finally the best conditions in terms of project nature, complexity, types, and scales for adopting PPP should be derived. The aim and objectives of this study were achieved via a comprehensive literature review, in-depth case analyses, interview survey with experts from both Hong Kong and overseas, and finally a large scale data collection was conducted via a questionnaire survey with PPP practitioners. These findings were further triangulated before they were used as the basis to form the best practice framework presented in this thesis. The framework was then further validated by PPP experts to ensure it is comprehensive, objective, reliable and practical. This study has presented a methodology that can be adopted for future studies. It has also updated our knowledge on the development trends of PPP as well as opened up the experiences of other jurisdictions. The findings have shown that the local industry is familiar with “what” should be done in PPP projects but they are unsure of “how” these goals can be achieved. This framework has allowed this further knowledge to be delivered to PPP practitioners. As a result, the development of this framework can help to resolve the current economic crisis by encouraging more developments and business opportunities for the private sector. In addition, the correct projects can be delivered by PPP, the advantages of PPP can be maximised, and the general public can benefit from the private sector’s participation.

Practice briefing : Is BOT the best financing model to procure infrastructure projects? A case study of the Hong Kong-Shuhai-Macau Bridge

Abstract: Purpose – Several major infrastructure projects in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) have been delivered by the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model since the 1960s. Although the benefits of using BOT have been reported abundantly in the contemporary literature, some BOT projects were less successful than the others. This paper aims to find out why this is so and to explore whether BOT is the best financing model to procure major infrastructure projects. Design/methodology/approach – The benefits of BOT will first be reviewed. Some completed BOT projects in Hong Kong will be examined to ascertain how far the perceived benefits of BOT have been materialized in these projects. A highly profiled project, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, which has long been promoted by the governments of the People's Republic of China, Macau Special Administrative Region and the HKSAR that BOT is the preferred financing model, but suddenly reverted back to the traditional financing model to be funded primarily by the three governments with public money instead, will be studied to explore the true value of the BOT financial model. Findings – Six main reasons for this radical change are derived from the analysis: shorter take-off time for the project; difference in legal systems causing difficulties in drafting BOT agreements; more government control on tolls; private sector uninterested due to unattractive economic package; avoid allegation of collusion between business and the governments; and a comfortable financial reserve possessed by the host governments. Originality/value – The findings from this paper are believed to provide a better understanding to the real benefits of BOT and the governments' main decision criteria in delivering major infrastructure projects.

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Surviving the Titanic disaster : economic, natural and social determinants

The sinking of the Titanic in April 1912 took the lives of 68 percent of the people aboard. Who survived? It was women and children who had a higher probability of being saved, not men. Likewise, people traveling in first class had a better chance of survival than those in second and third class. British passengers were more likely to perish than members of other nations. This extreme event represents a rare case of a well-documented life and death situation where social norms were enforced. This paper shows that economic analysis can account for human behavior in such situations.

Factors contributing to successful public private partnership projects : comparing Hong Kong with Australia and the United Kingdom

Purpose: With the increasing interest in Public Private Partnership (PPP) there is a need to investigate the factors contributing to successful delivery of PPP projects. Design/methodology/approach: An empirical questionnaire survey was conducted in Hong Kong and Australia. The survey respondents were asked to rate eighteen factors which contribute to delivering successful PPP projects. Findings: The findings from this survey were further compared with the results achieved by a previous researcher (Li, 2003) in a similar survey conducted in the United Kingdom. The comparison showed that amongst the top five success factors ranked by Hong Kong respondents, three were also ranked highly by the Australians and British. These success factors included: ‘Commitment and responsibility of public and private sectors’; ‘Strong and good private consortium’; and ‘Appropriate risk allocation and risk sharing’. Originality/value: These success factors were therefore found to be important for contributing to successful PPP projects irrespective of geographical locations.

The public sector’s perspective on procuring public works projects : comparing the views of practitioners in Hong Kong and Australia

Hong Kong has been one of the early jurisdictions to adopt Public Private Partnership (PPP) model for delivering large public infrastructure projects. The development of this procurement approach in Hong Kong has followed an intricate path. As such, it is believed that there are a number of areas which are interesting to unveil. As part of a comprehensive research study looking at implementing PPPs, interviews with experienced local industrial practitioners from the public sector were conducted to realize their perspective on the topic of procuring public works projects. Amongst these interviews, fourteen were launched government officials and advisers. The interview findings show that the majority of the Hong Kong and Australian interviewees had previously conducted some kind of research in the field of PPP. Both groups of interviewees agreed that “PPPs gain private sector’s added efficiency/expertise/management skills” when compared to projects procured traditionally. Also, both groups of interviewees felt that projects best suited to use PPP are those that have an “Economic business case”. The interviewees believed that “Contractor’s performance” could be used as key performance indicators for PPP projects. A large number of critical success factors were identified by the interviewees for PPP projects; two of these were similar for both groups of interviewees. These included “Project objectives well defined” and “Partnership spirit/commitment/trust”. Finally it was found that in-house guidance materials were more common in the organizations of the Australian interviewees compared to the Hong Kong ones. This paper studies the views of the public sector towards the topic of PPPs in Hong Kong and Australia, which helps to answer some of the queries that both academics and the private sector in these jurisdictions are keen to know. As a result the private sector can be more prepared when negotiating with the public sector and realise their needs better, academics on the other hand are provided a wider perspective of this topic benefiting the research industry at large.

The researcher’s perspective on procuring public works projects

Purpose: As part of a comprehensive research study looking at implementing PPPs, interviews with experienced researchers were conducted to realize their views on private sector involvement in public works projects. Design / methodology / approach: Amongst these interviews, five were launched with academics from Hong Kong and Australia, and two were conducted with Legislative Councillors of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region (HKSAR) government. Findings: The interview findings show that both Hong Kong and Australian interviewees had previously conducted some kind of research in the field of PPP. The interviewees highlighted that “Different risk profiles” and “Private sector more innovative / efficient” were the main differences between projects that were procured by PPP and traditionally. Other differences include risk transfer. In a PPP arrangement the public sector passes on a substantial amount of the project risks to the private sector, whereas in a traditional case the public sector would take the largest responsibility in bearing these risks. Another common feature of the private sector is that they tend to be more efficient and innovative when compared to the public sector hence their expertise is often reflected in PPP projects. The interviewees agreed that the key performance indicators for PPP projects were unique depending on the individual project. The critical success factors mentioned by both groups of interviewees included “Transparent process”, “Project dependent” and “Market need”. Due to the fact that PPP projects tend to be large scaled costly projects, adequate transparency in the process is necessary in order to demonstrate that a fair selection and tendering process is conducted. A market need for the project is also important to ensure that the project will be financially secure and that the private sector can make a reasonable profit to cover their project expenditure. Originality / value: The findings from this study have enabled a comparative analysis between the views of researchers in two completely different jurisdictions. With the growing popularity to implement PPP projects, it is believed that the results presented in this paper would be of interest to the industry at large.

Suitability of procuring large public works by PPP in Hong Kong

Purpose : The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (referred to as Hong Kong from here onwards) is an international leading commercial hub particularly in Asia. In order to keep up its reputation a number of large public works projects have been considered. Public Private Partnership (PPP) has increasingly been suggested for these projects, but the suitability of using this procurement method in Hong Kong is yet to be studied empirically. The findings presented in this paper will specifically consider whether PPPs should be used to procure public works projects in Hong Kong by studying the attractive and negative factors for adopting PPP. Design/methodology/approach : As part of this study a questionnaire survey was conducted with industrial practitioners. The respondents were requested to rank the importance of fifteen attractive factors and thirteen negative factors for adopting PPP. Findings : The results found that in general the top attractive factors ranked by respondents from Hong Kong were efficiency related, these included (1) ‘Provide an integrated solution (for public infrastructure / services)’; (2) ‘Facilitate creative and innovative approaches’; and (3) ‘Solve the problem of public sector budget restraint’. It was found that Australian respondents also shared similar findings to those in Hong Kong, but the United Kingdom respondents showed a higher priority to those economic driven attractive factors. Also, the ranking of the attractive and negative factors for adopting PPP showed that on average the attractive factors were scored higher than the negative factors. Originality/value : The results of this research have enabled a comparison of the attractive and negative factors for adopting PPP between three administrative systems. These findings have confirmed that PPP is a suitable means to procure large public projects which are believed to be useful and interesting to PPP researchers and practitioners.

Grounded Light

A promenade performance. This research produced a unique combination of performance using electronically augmented costuming, site-specific discrete electronic lighting and video projection and sustained mountainside/top choreography. The work was examined and expanded in two subsequent peer reviewed papers which scoped out the emerging field of ‘Grounded Media’. Curator and writer Kevin Murray further accorded and enhanced these ideas in subsequent critical writing and the work was also featured in a two page major profile in RealtimeThe work was commissioned by the long established Floating Land Festival and involved extensive on-site work as well as a residency, production and artist talk series at the Noosa Art Gallery. A documentary film of the work was subsequently presented in the three-month exhibition ‘Lines of Sight’ for the Nishi Ogi Machi Media Festival, Nishiogikubo Station Platform 1, Tokyo, Japan, curated by Youkobo Art Space.

Economics of maritime disasters : essays on the Titanic and Lusitania

This work seeks to fill some of the gap existing in the economics and behavioural economics literature pertaining to the decision making process of individuals under extreme environmental situations (life and death events). These essays specifically examine the sinking’s of the R.M.S. Titanic, on 14th April of 1912, and the R.M.S. Lusitania, on 7th May 1915, using econometric (multivariate) analysis techniques. The results show that even under extreme life and death conditions, social norms matter and are reflected in the survival probabilities of individuals onboard the Titanic. However, results from the comparative analysis of the Titanic and Lusitania show that social norms take time to organise and be effective. In the presence of such time constraints, the traditional “homo economicus” model of individual behaviour becomes evident as a survival of the fittest competition.