Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function K(q)K(q) of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal multifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter HH from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent h(2)h(2) from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is also found that K(2)K(2) and elevation series are negatively correlated. It shows a relationship between topography and rainfall variability.

Chemical functionalities of high and low sulfur Australian coals : a case study using micro attenuated total reflectance–fourier transform infrared (ATR–FTIR) spectrometry

The macerals in bituminous coals with varying organic sulfur content from the Early Permian Greta Coal Measures at three locations (Southland Colliery, Drayton Colliery and the Cranky Corner Basin), in and around the Sydney Basin (Australia), have been studied using light-element electron microprobe (EMP) analysis and micro-ATR–FTIR. Electron microprobe analysis of individual macerals reveals that the vitrinite in both the Cranky Corner Basin and Drayton Colliery (Puxtrees seam) samples have similar carbon contents (ca. 78% C in telocollinite), suggesting that they are of equivalent rank. However, the Cranky Corner coals have anomalously low vitrinite reflectance (down to 0.45%) vs. the Drayton materials (ca. 0.7%). They also have very high organic S content (3–6.5%) and lower O content (ca. 10%) than the equivalent macerals in the Drayton sample (0.7% S and 15.6% O). A study was carried out to investigate the impacts of the high organic S on the functional groups of the macerals in these two otherwise iso-rank, stratigraphically-equivalent seams. An iso-rank low-S coal from the overlying Wittingham Coal Measures near Muswellbrook and coals of slightly higher rank from the Greta Coal Measures at Southland Colliery near Cessnock were also evaluated using the same techniques to extend the data set. Although the telocollinite in the Drayton and Cranky Corner coals have very similar carbon content (ca.78% C), the ATR–FTIR spectra of the vitrinite and inertinite macerals in these respectively low S and high S coals show some distinct differences in IR absorbance from various aliphatic and aromatic functional groups. The differences in absorbance of the aliphatic stretching bands (2800–3000 cm−1) and the aromatic carbon (CC) peak at 1606 cm−1 are very obvious. Compared to that of the Drayton sample (0.7% S and 15% O), the telocollinite of the Cranky Corner coal (6% S and 10% O) clearly shows: (i) less absorbance from OH groups, represented by a broad region around 3553 cm−1, (ii) much stronger aliphatic C–H absorbance (stretching modes around 3000–2800 cm−1 and bending modes around 1442 cm−1) and (iii) less absorbance from aromatic carbon functional groups (peaking at 1606 cm−1). Evaluation of the iso-rank Drayton and Cranky Corner coals shows that: (i) the aliphatic C–H absorbances decrease with increasing oxygen content but increase with increasing organic S content and (ii) the aromatic H to aliphatic H ratio (Har/Hali) for the telocollinite increases with (organic) O%, but decreases progressively with increasing organic S. The high organic S content in the maceral appears to be accompanied by a greater proportion of aliphatic functional groups, possibly as a result of some of the O within maceral ring structures in the high S coal samples being replaced.

Insights into historical drainage evolution based on the phylogeography of the chevron snakehead fish (Channa striata) in the Mekong Basin

1. The phylogeography of freshwater taxa is often integrally linked with landscape changes such as drainage re-alignments that may present the only avenue for historical dispersal for these taxa. Classical models of gene flow do not account for landscape changes and so are of little use in predicting phylogeography in geologically young freshwater landscapes. When the history of drainage formation is unknown, phylogeographical predictions can be based on current freshwater landscape structure, proposed historical drainage geomorphology, or from phylogeographical patterns of co-distributed taxa. 2. This study describes the population structure of a sedentary freshwater fish, the chevron snakehead (Channa striata), across two river drainages on the Indochinese Peninsula. The phylogeographical pattern recovered for C. striata was tested against seven hypotheses based on contemporary landscape structure, proposed history and phylogeographical patterns of codistributed taxa. 3. Consistent with the species ecology, analysis of mitochondrial and microsatellite loci revealed very high differentiation among all sampled sites. A strong signature of historical population subdivision was also revealed within the contemporary Mekong River Basin (MRB). Of the seven phylogeographical hypotheses tested, patterns of co-distributed taxa proved to be the most adequate for describing the phylogeography of C. striata. 4. Results shed new light on SE Asian drainage evolution, indicating that the Middle MRB probably evolved via amalgamation of at least three historically independent drainage sections and in particular that the Mekong River section centred around the northern Khorat Plateau in NE Thailand was probably isolated from the greater Mekong for an extensive period of evolutionary time. In contrast, C. striata populations in the Lower MRB do not show a phylogeographical signature of evolution in historically isolated drainage lines, suggesting drainage amalgamation has been less important for river landscape formation in this region.

Application of a digital elevation model for flood modeling for the Pagsangaan River in Leyte

Flood related scientific and community-based data are rarely systematically collected and analysed in the Philippines. Over the last decades the Pagsangaan River Basin, Leyte, has experienced several flood events. However, documentation describing flood characteristics such as extent, duration or height of these floods are close to non-existing. To address this issue, computerized flood modelling was used to reproduce past events where there was data available for at least partial calibration and validation. The model was also used to provide scenario-based predictions based on A1B climate change assumptions for the area. The most important input for flood modelling is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the river basin. No accurate topographic maps or Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR)-generated data are available for the Pagsangaan River. Therefore, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), Version 1, was chosen as the DEM. Although the horizontal spatial resolution of 30 m is rather desirable, it contains substantial vertical errors. These were identified, different correction methods were tested and the resulting DEM was used for flood modelling. The above mentioned data were combined with cross-sections at various strategic locations of the river network, meteorological records, river water level, and current velocity to develop the 1D-2D flood model. SOBEK was used as modelling software to create different rainfall scenarios, including historic flooding events. Due to the lack of scientific data for the verification of the model quality, interviews with local stakeholders served as the gauge to judge the quality of the generated flood maps. According to interviewees, the model reflects reality more accurately than previously available flood maps. The resulting flood maps are now used by the operations centre of a local flood early warning system for warnings and evacuation alerts. Furthermore these maps can serve as a basis to identify flood hazard areas for spatial land use planning purposes.

Namoi : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Namoi River winds its way through 42 000 square kilometres of blacksoil plain in the north east of New South Wales. Fed by the rivers of the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, it contributes about one quarter of the Darling River’s flow. The river, its floodplain, wetlands, swamps and waterholes, are the traditional lands of the Gamilaraay* people. The Namoi is a very different river to the one the Gamilaraay people once knew and fished...

Katarapko : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

Once known as Crabb’s Creek, Katarapko Creek is a small anabranch of the Murray River, located between the towns of Berri and Loxton in the Riverland region of South Australia. Its 9 000 hectare grey clay floodplain is covered with blackbox, saltbush and lignum. The creek’s horseshoe lagoons, marshes and islands are the traditional lands of the Meru peoples. They fished the creek and surrounding waterways and hunted the wetlands. The ebb and flow of water guided their travels and featured in their stories. The Meru have seen their land and the river change...

Goulburn : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Goulburn River’s cold, clear waters rush westward down from the steep hills and mountains of the Great Dividing Range toward Seymour. The river then turns northward and meanders through hills and plains until the river meets the Murray upstream of Echuca. These are the traditional lands of the Taungurung, Bangerang and Yorta Yorta peoples. However, the Goulburn River today is not the river the Taungurung, Bangerang and Yorta Yorta once knew and fished...

Upper Murrumbidgee : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Upper Murrumbidgee cuts its way through the Snowy Mountains in south‐eastern New South Wales, snaking its way south, then turning north before dropping into the lowland and heading west to join the Murray downstream of Swan Hill. The Upper ‘Bidgee floodplain is only a couple of hundred metres wide, a stark contrast to the kilometres‐wide floodplains in other parts of the Murray‐ Darling Basin. When the floods come, they come up quickly and roar through the narrow valleys. These are the traditional lands of the Ngunnawal and Ngarigo peoples. They fished the river and surrounding waterways and hunted the wetlands. The seasonal rise and fall of the water guided their travels and featured in their stories. The Ngunnawal and Ngarigo people have seen their land and the river change...

Murray : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Murray River is the boundary between NSW and Victoria. The river both defines boundaries and unites them with the waters that sustain townships, irrigation and the floodplain forests, including the 70 000ha of the iconic Barmah and Millewa Forest. The river and its floodplain are the traditional lands of the Yorta Yorta and Bangerang people. The Murray is a very different river to the one the Yorta Yorta and Bangerang peoples once knew and fished...