A comparative analysis of risk stratification tools for emergency department patients with chest pain

Background: Appropriate disposition of emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain is dependent on clinical evaluation of risk. A number of chest pain risk stratification tools have been proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using risk assessment tools from the National Heart Foundation of Australia (HFA), the Goldman risk score and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score (TIMI RS). Methods: This prospective observational study evaluated ED patients aged ≥30 years with non-traumatic chest pain for which no definitive non-ischemic cause was found. Data collected included demographic and clinical information, investigation findings and occurrence of MACE by 30 days. The outcome of interest was the comparative predictive performance of the risk tools for MACE at 30 days, as analyzed by receiver operator curves (ROC). Results: Two hundred eighty-one patients were studied; the rate of MACE was 14.1%. Area under the curve (AUC) of the HFA, TIMI RS and Goldman tools for the endpoint of MACE was 0.54, 0.71 and 0.67, respectively, with the difference between the tools in predictive ability for MACE being highly significant [chi2 (3) = 67.21, N = 276, p < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The TIMI RS and Goldman tools performed better than the HFA in this undifferentiated ED chest pain population, but selection of cutoffs balancing sensitivity and specificity was problematic. There is an urgent need for validated risk stratification tools specific for the ED chest pain population.

Correlation of macrophage location and plaque stress distribution using USPIO-enhanced MRI in a patient with symptomatic severe carotid stenosis: A new insight into risk stratification

High resolution, USPIO-enhanced MR imaging can be used to identify inflamed atherosclerotic plaque. We report a case of a 79-year-old man with a symptomatic carotid stenosis of 82%. The plaque was retrieved for histology and finite element analysis (FEA) based on the preoperative MR imaging was used to predict maximal Von Mises stress on the plaque. Macrophage location correlated with maximal predicted stresses on the plaque. This supports the hypothesis that macrophages thin the fibrous cap at points of highest stress, leading to an increased risk of plaque rupture and subsequent stroke.

Limited utility of exercise stress testing in the evaluation of suspected acute coronary syndrome in patients aged less than 40 years with intermediate risk features

Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome

Identification of 23 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci using the iCOGS custom genotyping

Prostate cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in males in developed countries. To identify common prostate cancer susceptibility alleles, we genotyped 211,155 SNPs on a custom Illumina array (iCOGS) in blood DNA from 25,074 prostate cancer cases and 24,272 controls from the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Twenty-three new prostate cancer susceptibility loci were identified at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). More than 70 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, explaining ~30% of the familial risk for this disease, have now been identified. On the basis of combined risks conferred by the new and previously known risk loci, the top 1% of the risk distribution has a 4.7-fold higher risk than the average of the population being profiled. These results will facilitate population risk stratification for clinical studies.

Serum HE4 as a prognostic marker in endometrial cancer : a population based study

Objective HE4 has emerged as a promising biomarker in gynaecological oncology. The purpose of this study was to evaluate serum HE4 as a biomarker for high-risk phenotypes in a population-based endometrial cancer cohort. Methods Peri-operative serum HE4 and CA125 were measured in 373 patients identified from the prospective Australian National Endometrial Cancer Study (ANECS). HE4 and CA125 were quantified on the ARCHITECT instrument in a clinically accredited laboratory. Receiver operator curves (ROC), Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and chi-squared and Mann–Whitney tests were used for statistical analysis. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier and Cox multivariate regression analyses. Results Median CA125 and HE4 levels were higher in stage III and IV tumours (p < 0.001) and in tumours with outer-half myometrial invasion (p < 0.001). ROC analysis demonstrated that HE4 (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.76) was a better predictor of outer-half myometrial invasion than CA125 (AUC = 0.65), particularly in patients with low-grade endometrioid tumours (AUC 0.77 vs 0.64 for CA125). Cox multivariate analysis demonstrated that elevated HE4 was an independent predictor of recurrence-free survival (HR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.19–4.83, p = 0.014) after adjusting for stage and grade of disease, particularly in the endometrioid subtype (HR = 2.86, 95% CI 1.25–6.51, p = 0.012). Conclusion These findings demonstrate the utility of serum HE4 as a prognostic biomarker in endometrial cancer in a large, population-based study. In particular they highlight the utility of HE4 for pre-operative risk stratification to identify high-risk patients within low-grade endometrioid endometrial cancer patients who might benefit from lymphadenectomy.

The window of opportunity: A relevant concept for axial spondyloarthritis

The window of opportunity is a concept critical to rheumatoid arthritis treatment. Early treatment changes the outcome of rheumatoid arthritis treatment, in that response rates are higher with earlier disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment and damage is substantially reduced. Axial spondyloarthritis is an inflammatory axial disease encompassing both nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis and established ankylosing spondylitis. In axial spondyloarthritis, studies of magnetic resonance imaging as well as tumor necrosis factor inhibitor treatment and withdrawal studies all suggest that early effective suppression of inflammation has the potential to reduce radiographic damage. This potential would suggest that the concept of a window of opportunity is relevant not only to rheumatoid arthritis but also to axial spondyloarthritis. The challenge now remains to identify high-risk patients early and to commence treatment without delay. Developments in risk stratification include new classification criteria, identification of clinical risk factors, biomarkers, genetic associations, potential antibody associations and an ankylosing spondylitis-specific microbiome signature. Further research needs to focus on the evidence for early intervention and the early identification of high-risk individuals.

Fatigue crack growth under pulsatile pressure and plaque rupture

Identification of vulnerable plaque pre-rupture is extremely important for patient risk stratification. The mechanism of plaque rupture is still not entirely clear, but it is thought to be a process involving multiple factors. From a biomechanical viewpoint, plaque rupture is usually seen as a structural failure when the plaque cannot resist the hemodynamic blood pressure and shear stress exerted on it. However, the cardiovascular system is naturally a cyclical hemodynamic environment, and myocardial infarction can be a symptomatically quiescent but potentially progressive process when plaque ruptures at stresses much lower than its strength. Therefore, fatigue accumulation is a possible mechanism for plaque rupture. In this study, a crack growth model was developed, and the previously-mentioned hypothesis was tested by conducting a comparative study between 18 symptomatic and 16 asymptomatic patients with carotid stenosis.

Study of carotid arterial plaque stress for symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

Stroke is one of the leading causes of death in the world, resulting mostly from the sudden ruptures of atherosclerosis carotid plaques. Until now, the exact plaque rupture mechanism has not been fully understood, and also the plaque rupture risk stratification. The advanced multi-spectral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has allowed the plaque components to be visualized in-vivo and reconstructed by computational modeling. In the study, plaque stress analysis using fully coupled fluid structure interaction was applied to 20 patients (12 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic) reconstructed from in-vivo MRI, followed by a detailed biomechanics analysis, and morphological feature study. The locally extreme stress conditions can be found in the fibrous cap region, 85% at the plaque shoulder based on the present study cases. Local maximum stress values predicted in the plaque region were found to be significantly higher in symptomatic patients than that in asymptomatic patients (200±43. kPa vs. 127±37. kPa, p=0.001). Plaque stress level, defined by excluding 5% highest stress nodes in the fibrous cap region based on the accumulative histogram of stress experienced on the computational nodes in the fibrous cap, was also significantly higher in symptomatic patients than that in asymptomatic patients (154±32. kPa vs. 111±23. kPa, p<0.05). Although there was no significant difference in lipid core size between the two patient groups, symptomatic group normally had a larger lipid core and a significantly thinner fibrous cap based on the reconstructed plaques using 3D interpolation from stacks of 2D contours. Plaques with a higher stenosis were more likely to have extreme stress conditions upstream of plaque throat. The combined analyses of plaque MR image and plaque stress will advance our understanding of plaque rupture, and provide a useful tool on assessing plaque rupture risk.

Normalized wall index specific and MRI-based stress analysis of atherosclerotic carotid plaques: A study comparing acutely symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

Background: Biomechanical stresses play an important role in determining plaque stability. Quantification of these simulated stresses can be potentially used to assess plaque vulnerability and differentiate different patient groups. Methods and Results: 54 asymptomatic and 45 acutely symptomatic patients underwent in vivo multicontrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the carotid arteries. Plaque geometry used for finite element analysis was derived from in vivo MRI at the sites of maximum and minimum plaque burden. In total, 198 slices were used for the computational simulations. A pre-shrink technique was used to refine the simulation. Maximum principle stress at the vulnerable plaque sites (ie, critical stress) was extracted for the selected slices and a comparison was performed between the 2 groups. Critical stress in the slice with maximum plaque burden is significantly higher in acutely symptomatic patients as compared to asymptomatic patients (median, inter quartile range: 198.0 kPa (119.8-359.0 kPa) vs 138.4 kPa (83.8-242.6 kPa), P=0.04). No significant difference was found in the slice with minimum plaque burden between the 2 groups (196.7 kPa (133.3-282.7 kPa) vs 182.4 kPa (117.2-310.6 kPa), P=0.82). Conclusions: Acutely symptomatic carotid plaques have significantly high biomechanical stresses than asymptomatic plaques. This might be potentially useful for establishing a biomechanical risk stratification criteria based on plaque burden in future studies.

Finite element analysis of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques: A comparison of mechanical stresses within carotid plaques of acute and recently symptomatic patients with carotid artery disease

Objectives: There is considerable evidence that patients with carotid artery stenosis treated immediately after the ischaemic cerebrovascular event have a better clinical outcome than those who have delayed treatment. Biomechanical assessment of carotid plaques using high-resolution MRI can help examine the relationship between the timing of carotid plaque symptomology and maximum simulated plaque stress concentration. Methods: Fifty patients underwent high-resolution multisequence in vivo MRI of their carotid arteries. Patients with acute symptoms (n=25) underwent MRI within 72 h of the onset of ischaemic cerebrovascular symptoms, whereas recently symptomatic patients (n=25) underwent MRI from 2 to 6 weeks after the onset of symptoms. Stress analysis was performed based on the geometry derived from in vivo MRI of the symptomatic carotid artery at the point of maximum stenosis. The peak stresses within the plaques of the two groups were compared. Results: Patient demographics were comparable for both groups. All the patients in the recently symptomatic group had severe carotid stenosis in contrast to patients with acute symptoms who had predominantly mild to moderate carotid stenosis. The simulated maximum stresses in patients with acute symptoms was significantly higher than in recently symptomatic patients (median (IQR): 313310 4 dynes/cm 2 (295 to 382) vs 2523104 dynes/cm 2 (236 to 311), p=0.02). Conclusions: Patients have extremely unstable, high-risk plaques, with high stresses, immediately after an acute cerebrovascular event, even at lower degrees of carotid stenoses. Biomechanical stress analysis may help us refine our risk-stratification criteria for the management of patients with carotid artery disease in future.

Stress analysis of carotid plaque based on in vivo MRI of acute symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

Stress analysis within carotid plaques based on in vivo MR imaging has shown to be useful for the identification of vulnerable atheroma. This study is to investigate whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based-biomechanical stress analysis of carotid plaques can differentiate acute symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. 54 asymptomatic and 45 acute symptomatic patients underwent in vivo multi-contrast MRI of the carotid arteries. Plaque geometry used for finite element analysis was derived from in vivo MR images at the site of maximum and minimum plaque burden. In total 198 slices were used for the computational simulations. A pre shrink technique was used to refine the simulation. Maximum principle stress at the vulnerable plaque sites (i.e. critical stress) was extracted for the selected slices and a comparison was performed between the two groups. Critical stress at the site of maximum plaque burden is significantly higher in acute symptomatic patients as compared to asymptomatic patients [median: 198.0kPa (inter quartile range (IQR) = (119.8 - 359.0) vs. 138.4kPa (83.8, 242.6), p=0.04]. No significant difference was found at the minimum plaque burden site between the two groups [196.7kPa (133.3- 282.7) vs. 182.4kPa (117.2 - 310. 6), p=0.82). Stress analysis at the site of maximal plaque burden can be effectively used for differentiating acute symptomatic carotid plaques from asymptomatic plaques. This maybe potentially used for development of biomechanical risk stratification criteria based on plaque burden in future studies.