Automated risk mitigation in business processes

This paper proposes a concrete approach for the automatic mitigation of risks that are detected during process enactment. Given a process model exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to the risk of approval fraud, we enact this process and as soon as the likelihood of the associated risk(s) is no longer tolerable, we generate a set of possible mitigation actions to reduce the risks' likelihood, ideally annulling the risks altogether. A mitigation action is a sequence of controlled changes applied to the running process instance, taking into account a snapshot of the process resources and data, and the current status of the system in which the process is executed. These actions are proposed as recommendations to help process administrators mitigate process-related risks as soon as they arise. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL environment and its performance evaluated. The results show that it is possible to mitigate process-related risks within a few minutes.

Brownfield re-development : Perceptions and risk mitigation strategies

Scarcity of large parcels of land in well-serviced areas has motivated people to re-develop brownfield land. Most of brownfield land has high risk of contamination from wide range of industrial activities such as gas works, factories, railway land and waste tips. In addition, people who live in brownfield re-development areas may be exposed to health hazards. This paper discusses public perceptions on the brownfield sites and also the risk and mitigation strategy to promote brownfield re-development. Data is gathered from face to face survey of fifty respondents who work in Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) and interview with an expert on remediation of contaminated land. From this preliminary study, it is found that majority of the population are not aware of any brownfield sites near their residence and those who are aware showed very little concern on their proximity to the site. Further discussion on the paper based on a simple cross tabulation analysis. The main risk mitigation strategy of re-development of brownfield site is by updating the registration through Environmental Management Register (EMR) and Contaminated Land Register (CLR). In addition, insurance may offer to cover cost overruns on remediation cost.

Risk mitigation of post-earthquake fire in urban buildings

Post-earthquake fire (PEF) is considered one of the most high risk and complicated problems affecting buildings in urban areas and can cause even more damage than the earthquake itself. However, most standards and codes ignore the implications of PEF and so buildings are not normally designed with PEF in mind. What is needed is for PEF factors to be routinely scrutinized and codified as part of the design process. A systematic application is presented as a means of mitigating the risk of PEF in urban buildings. This covers both existing buildings, in terms of retrofit solutions, and those yet to be designed, where a PEF factor is proposed. To ensure the mitigation strategy meets the defined criteria, a minimum time is defined – the safety guaranteed time target – where the safety of the inhabitants in a building is guaranteed.

What does built environment research have to do with risk mitigation, resilience and disaster recovery?

One could argue that the nature of our housing stock is a key determining factor in the ability of our citizens to manage risk, be resilient to various natural and human events, and to recover from these events. Recent research has been examining current challenges posed by our housing stock and exploring potential solutions from a range of perspectives. The aim of this paper is to discuss key findings from recent built environment research in Australia to initiate cross-sectorial discussion and debate about the implications and opportunities for other sectors such as emergency management and insurance. Three recent building research projects are discussed: - Heat waves The impact of heat waves on houses and occupants, and proposed changes to building regulations, air conditioning standards and building design, to reduce risks associated with heat waves. - Net zero energy homes Exploration of the potential benefits of a strategic optimization of building quality, energy and water efficiency, and household or community level distributed energy and water services for disaster management and recovery. - Building information Mapping of the flow of information about residential buildings, and the potential for national or regional building files (in a similar manner to personal medical records) to assist all parties to make more informed decisions that impact on housing sustainability and community resilience. The paper discusses how sustainability, environmental performance and resilience are inter-related, and can be supported by building files. It concludes with a call for increased cross-sectorial collaboration to explore opportunities for a whole-of-systems approach to our built environment that addresses a range of economic and environmental challenges as well as disaster and emergency management.

Can Risk Management boost the supply of Affordable Housing Development and Management?

A shortage of affordable housing is a major problem in Australia today. This is mainly due to the limited supply of affordable housing that is provided by the non-government housing sector. Some private housing developers see the provision of affordable housing for lower income people as a high risk investment which offers a lower return than broader market-based housing. The scarcity of suitable land, a limited government ‘subsidy’, and increasing housing costs have not provided sufficient development incentives to encourage their investment despite the existing high demand for affordable housing. This study analyses the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit housing providers in South East Queensland, and draws conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences. In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment/response in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. These developers use an informal risk management process as part of their normal business process in accordance with industry standards. A simple qualitative matrix has been used to analyse probability and impacts using a qualitative scale - low, medium and high. For housing providers who have considered investing in affordable housing but have not yet implemented any such projects, affordable housing development is seen as an opportunity that needs to be approached with caution. The risks associated with such projects and the levels of acceptance of these are not consistently identified by current housing providers. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. This study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.

Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

A software framework for risk-aware business process management

With the large diffusion of Business Process Managemen (BPM) automation suites, the possibility of managing process-related risks arises. This paper introduces an innovative framework for process-related risk management and describes a working implementation realized by extending the YAWL system. The framework covers three aspects of risk management: risk monitoring, risk prevention, and risk mitigation. Risk monitoring functionality is provided using a sensor-based architecture, where sensors are defined at design time and used at run-time for monitoring purposes. Risk prevention functionality is provided in the form of suggestions about what should be executed, by who, and how, through the use of decision trees. Finally, risk mitigation functionality is provided as a sequence of remedial actions (e.g. reallocating, skipping, rolling back of a work item) that should be executed to restore the process to a normal situation.

Accident risk identification and its impact analyses for strategic construction safety management

The study presented in this paper reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, in order to understand the relationships between the risk factors and injury severity (e.g. fatalities, hospitalized injuries, or non-hospitalized injuries) and to develop a strategic prevention plan to reduce the likelihood of fatalities where an accident is unavoidable. The study specifically aims to: (1) verify the relationships among risk factors, accident types, and injury severity, (2) determine significant risk factors associated with each accident type that are highly correlated to injury severity, and (3) analyze the impact of the identified key factors on accident and fatality occurrence. The analysis results explained that safety managers’ roles are critical to reducing human-related risks—particularly misjudgement of hazardous situations—through safety training and education, appropriate use of safety devices and proper safety inspection. However, for environment-related factors, the dominant risk factors were different depending on the different accident types. The outcomes of this study will assist safety managers to understand the nature of construction accidents and plan for strategic risk mitigation by prioritizing high frequency risk factors to effectively control accident occurrence and manage the likelihood of fatal injuries on construction sites.

Assessing the suitability of existing spatial data for disaster planning and mitigation in Queensland

The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in 2003 gave in-principle approval to a best-practice report recommending a holistic approach to managing natural disasters in Australia incorporating a move from a traditional response-centric approach to a greater focus on mitigation, recovery and resilience with community well-being at the core. Since that time, there have been a range of complementary developments that have supported the COAG recommended approach. Developments have been administrative, legislative and technological, both, in reaction to the COAG initiative and resulting from regular natural disasters. This paper reviews the characteristics of the spatial data that is becoming increasingly available at Federal, state and regional jurisdictions with respect to their being fit for the purpose for disaster planning and mitigation and strengthening community resilience. In particular, Queensland foundation spatial data, which is increasingly accessible by the public under the provisions of the Right to Information Act 2009, Information Privacy Act 2009, and recent open data reform initiatives are evaluated. The Fitzroy River catchment and floodplain is used as a case study for the review undertaken. The catchment covers an area of 142,545 km2, the largest river catchment flowing to the eastern coast of Australia. The Fitzroy River basin experienced extensive flooding during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods. The basin is an area of important economic, environmental and heritage values and contains significant infrastructure critical for the mining and agricultural sectors, the two most important economic sectors for Queensland State. Consequently, the spatial datasets for this area play a critical role in disaster management and for protecting critical infrastructure essential for economic and community well-being. The foundation spatial datasets are assessed for disaster planning and mitigation purposes using data quality indicators such as resolution, accuracy, integrity, validity and audit trail.

Managing risk in process-aware information systems

This research contributes a fully-operational approach for managing business process risk in near real-time. The approach consists of a language for defining risks on top of process models, a technique to detect such risks as they eventuate during the execution of business processes, a recommender system for making risk-informed decisions, and a technique to automatically mitigate the detected risks when they are no longer tolerable. Through the incorporation of risk management elements in all stages of the lifecycle of business processes, this work contributes to the effective integration of the fields of Business Process Management and Risk Management.

Human health risk of toxic chemical pollutants generated from traffic and land use activities

The research project developed a quantitative approach to assess the risk to human health from heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater based on traffic and land use factors. The research outcomes are expected to strengthen the scientifically robust management and reuse of urban stormwater. The innovative methodology developed can be applied to evaluate human health risk in relation to toxic chemical pollutants in urban stormwater runoff and for the development of effective risk mitigation strategies.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

Harmonising procurement policy environment - identifying key themes towards the development of a conceptual model

Capital works procurement and its regulatory policy environment within a country can be complex entities. For example, by virtue of Australia’s governmental division between the Commonwealth, states and local jurisdictions and the associated procurement networks and responsibilities at each level, the tendering process is often convoluted. There are four inter-related key themes identified in the literature in relation to procurement disharmony, including decentralisation, risk & risk mitigation, free trade & competition, and tendering costs. This paper defines and discusses these key areas of conflict that adversely impact upon the business environments of industry through a literature review, policy analysis and consultation with capital works procurement stakeholders. The aim of this national study is to identify policy differences between jurisdictions in Australia, and ascertain whether those differences are a barrier to productivity and innovation. This research forms an element of a broader investigation with an aim of developing efficient, effective and nationally harmonised procurement systems. Keywords: capital works, procurement policy reform Acknowledgement: The research described in this paper carried out by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 1 rainfall simulation to evaluate pollutant build-up and wash-off from selected land uses

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement. ---------------- The Port currently has a network of stormwater sample collection points where event based samples together with grab samples are tested for a range of water quality parameters. Whilst this information provides a ‘snapshot’ of the pollutants being washed from the catchment/s, it does not allow for a quantifiable assessment of total contaminant loads being discharged to the waters of Moreton Bay. It also does not represent pollutant build-up and wash-off from the different land uses across a broader range of rainfall events which might be expected. As such, it is difficult to relate stormwater quality to different pollutant sources within the Port environment. ----------------- Consequently, this would make the source tracking of pollutants to receiving waters extremely difficult and in turn the ability to implement appropriate mitigation measures. Also, without this detailed understanding, the efficacy of the various stormwater quality mitigation measures implemented cannot be determined with certainty. --------------- Current knowledge on port stormwater runoff quality Currently, little knowledge exists with regards to the pollutant generation capacity specific to port land uses as these do not necessarily compare well with conventional urban industrial or commercial land use due to the specific nature of port activities such as inter-modal operations and cargo management. Furthermore, traffic characteristics in a port area are different to a conventional urban area. Consequently, as data inputs based on an industrial and commercial land uses for modelling purposes is questionable. ------------------ A comprehensive review of published research failed to locate any investigations undertaken with regards to pollutant build-up and wash-off for port specific land uses. Furthermore, there is very limited information made available by various ports worldwide about the pollution generation potential of their facilities. Published work in this area has essentially focussed on the water quality or environmental values in the receiving waters such as the downstream bay or estuary. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is the undertaking of ‘cutting edge’ research to strengthen the environmental custodianship of the Port area. This project aims to develop a port specific stormwater quality model to allow informed decision making in relation to stormwater quality improvement in the context of the increased growth of the Port. --------------- Stage 1 of the research project focussed on the assessment of pollutant build-up and wash-off using rainfall simulation from the current Port of Brisbane facilities with the longer-term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. Investigation of complex processes such as pollutant wash-off using naturally occurring rainfall events has inherent difficulties. These can be overcome using simulated rainfall for the investigations. ----------------- The deliverables for Stage 1 included the following: * Pollutant build-up and wash-off profiles for six primary land uses within the Port of Brisbane to be used for water quality model development. * Recommendations with regards to future stormwater quality monitoring and pollution mitigation measures. The outcomes are expected to deliver the following benefits to the Port of Brisbane: * The availability of Port specific pollutant build-up and wash-off data will enable the implementation of customised stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. * The water quality data collected would form the baseline data for a Port specific water quality model for mitigation and predictive purposes. * To be at the cutting-edge in terms of water quality management and environmental best practice in the context of port infrastructure. ---------------- Conclusions: The important conclusions from the study are: * It confirmed that the Port environment is unique in terms of pollutant characteristics and is not comparable to typical urban land uses. * For most pollutant types, the Port land uses exhibited lower pollutant concentrations when compared to typical urban land uses. * The pollutant characteristics varied across the different land uses and were not consistent in terms of the land use. Hence, the implementation of stereotypical structural water quality improvement devices could be of limited value. * The <150m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant build-up as well as wash-off. Therefore, if suspended solids are targeted as the surrogate parameter for water quality improvement, this specific particle size range needs to be removed. ------------------- Recommendations: Based on the study results the following preliminary recommendations are made: * Due to the appreciable variation in pollutant characteristics for different port land uses, any water quality monitoring stations should preferably be located such that source areas can be easily identified. * The study results having identified significant pollutants for the different land uses should enable the development of a more customised water quality monitoring and testing regime targeting the critical pollutants. * A ‘one size fits all’ approach may not be appropriate for the different port land uses due to the varying pollutant characteristics. As such, pollution mitigation will need to be specifically tailored to suit the specific land use. * Any structural measures implemented for pollution mitigation to be effective should have the capability to remove suspended solids of size <150m. * Based on the results presented and the particularly the fact that the Port land uses cannot be compared to conventional urban land uses in relation to pollutant generation, consideration should be given to the development of a port specific water quality model.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 2 development of a port specific water quality model

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement, where necessary. To this end, the Port of Brisbane Corporation aimed to develop a port specific stormwater model for the Fisherman Islands facility. The need has to be considered in the context of the proposed future developments of the Port area. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is that it seeks to undertake research to assist the Port in strengthening the environmental custodianship of the Port area through ‘cutting edge’ research and its translation into practical application. ------------------ The project was separated into two stages. The first stage developed a quantitative understanding of the generation potential of pollutant loads in the existing land uses. This knowledge was then used as input for the stormwater quality model developed in the subsequent stage. The aim is to expand this model across the yet to be developed port expansion area. This is in order to predict pollutant loads associated with stormwater flows from this area with the longer term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. ----------------- Study approach: Stage 1 of the overall study confirmed that Port land uses are unique in terms of the anthropogenic activities occurring on them. This uniqueness in land use results in distinctive stormwater quality characteristics different to other conventional urban land uses. Therefore, it was not scientifically valid to consider the Port as belonging to a single land use category or to consider as being similar to any typical urban land use. The approach adopted in this study was very different to conventional modelling studies where modelling parameters are developed using calibration. The field investigations undertaken in Stage 1 of the overall study helped to create fundamental knowledge on pollutant build-up and wash-off in different Port land uses. This knowledge was then used in computer modelling so that the specific characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off can be replicated. This meant that no calibration processes were involved due to the use of measured parameters for build-up and wash-off. ---------------- Conclusions: Stage 2 of the study was primarily undertaken using the SWMM stormwater quality model. It is a physically based model which replicates natural processes as closely as possible. The time step used and catchment variability considered was adequate to accommodate the temporal and spatial variability of input parameters and the parameters used in the modelling reflect the true nature of rainfall-runoff and pollutant processes to the best of currently available knowledge. In this study, the initial loss values adopted for the impervious surfaces are relatively high compared to values noted in research literature. However, given the scientifically valid approach used for the field investigations, it is appropriate to adopt the initial losses derived from this study for future modelling of Port land uses. The relatively high initial losses will reduce the runoff volume generated as well as the frequency of runoff events significantly. Apart from initial losses, most of the other parameters used in SWMM modelling are generic to most modelling studies. Development of parameters for MUSIC model source nodes was one of the primary objectives of this study. MUSIC, uses the mean and standard deviation of pollutant parameters based on a normal distribution. However, based on the values generated in this study, the variation of Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for Port land uses within the given investigation period does not fit a normal distribution. This is possibly due to the fact that only one specific location was considered, namely the Port of Brisbane unlike in the case of the MUSIC model where a range of areas with different geographic and climatic conditions were investigated. Consequently, the assumptions used in MUSIC are not totally applicable for the analysis of water quality in Port land uses. Therefore, in using the parameters included in this report for MUSIC modelling, it is important to note that it may result in under or over estimations of annual pollutant loads. It is recommended that the annual pollutant load values given in the report should be used as a guide to assess the accuracy of the modelling outcomes. A step by step guide for using the knowledge generated from this study for MUSIC modelling is given in Table 4.6. ------------------ Recommendations: The following recommendations are provided to further strengthen the cutting edge nature of the work undertaken: * It is important to further validate the approach recommended for stormwater quality modelling at the Port. Validation will require data collection in relation to rainfall, runoff and water quality from the selected Port land uses. Additionally, the recommended modelling approach could be applied to a soon-to-be-developed area to assess ‘before’ and ‘after’ scenarios. * In the modelling study, TSS was adopted as the surrogate parameter for other pollutants. This approach was based on other urban water quality research undertaken at QUT. The validity of this approach should be further assessed for Port land uses. * The adoption of TSS as a surrogate parameter for other pollutants and the confirmation that the <150 m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant wash-off gives rise to a number of important considerations. The ability of the existing structural stormwater mitigation measures to remove the <150 m particle size range need to be assessed. The feasibility of introducing source control measures as opposed to end-of-pipe measures for stormwater quality improvement may also need to be considered.