Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

Child eating behaviour outcomes of an early feeding intervention to reduce risk indicators for child obesity : the NOURISH RCT

Objective Describe parent-reported child eating behaviour and maternal parenting impact outcomes of an infant feeding intervention to reduce child obesity risk. Design and Methods An assessor masked Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) with concealed allocation of individual mother-infant dyads. The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 months (SD=1.0) at baseline. Outcomes were assessed six months post-intervention when the children were 2-years old. Mothers reported on child eating behaviours using the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ), food preferences and dietary intake using a 24-hour telephone recall. Parenting was assessed using five scales validated for use in Australia. Results Intervention effects were evident on the CEBQ overall (MANOVA P=.002) and 4/8 subscales: child satiety responsiveness (P=.03), fussiness (P=.01), emotional overeating (P<.01), and food responsiveness (P=.06). Intervention children ‘liked’ more fruits (P<.01) and fewer non-core foods and beverages (Ps=.06, .03). The intervention mothers reported greater ‘autonomy encouragement’ (P=.002) Conclusions Anticipatory guidance on protective feeding practices appears to have modest positive impacts on child eating behaviours that are postulated to reduce future obesity risk.

Predicting occupant risk indicators for frontal impacts with redirective crash cushions

Crash cushions are devices deployed on the road network in order to shield fixed roadside hazards and the non-crashworthy ends of road safety barriers. However crash cushions vary in terms of configuration and operation, meaning that different devices may also vary in terms of ability to mitigate occupant risk. In this study, data derived from crash testing of eleven redirective crash cushions is used as the base input to a numerical procedure for calculation of occupant risk indicators Occupant Impact Velocity (OIV), Occupant Ridedown Acceleration (ORA) and longitudinal Acceleration Severity Index (ASI) for a range of simulated impacting vehicles (mass 800 kg to 2,500 kg) impacting each crash cushion at a range of impact speeds (18 m/s to 32 m/s). The results may be interpreted as demonstrating firstly that enhanced knowledge of the performance of a device over a range of impact conditions, i.e., beyond the crash testing, may assist in determining the crash cushion most suited to a particular application; secondly that a more appropriate conformance test for occupant risk would be a frontal impact by a small (light) vehicle travelling parallel to and aligned with the centreline of the crash cushion; and thirdly that current documented numerical procedures for calculating occupant risk indicators may require review.

Comparing cooperative and non-cooperative crash risk assessment

Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the assessment of the road risk describing a particular driving situation. In this paper, we compare the performance of a cooperative risk assessment approach against a non-cooperative approach; we used an advanced simulation framework, allowing for accurate and detailed, close-to-reality simulations. Risk is estimated, in both cases, with combinations of indicators based on the TTC. For the non-cooperative approach, vehicles are equipped only with an AAC-like forward-facing ranging sensor. On the other hand, for the cooperative approach, vehicles share information through 802.11p IVC and create an augmented map representing their environment; risk indicators are then extracted from this map. Our system shows that the cooperative risk assessment provides a systematic increase of forward warning to most of the vehicles involved in a freeway emergency braking scenario, compared to a non-cooperative system.

Examining the stability of transport behaviours for high-risk early adolescents

Transport related injury is a leading cause of death and disability for adolescents and represents a substantial burden on public health and the community as a whole. Adolescents appear to have a growing risk of harm due to the co-existence of increasing alcohol use and engagement in risky transport behaviours. Understanding more about the development and stability of these behaviours by young adolescents over time could be beneficial in targeting transport injury prevention interventions for high-risk adolescents. In Australia alcohol use begins to increase significantly through the early and middle adolescent years even though the majority of these young people are still in school. Aim This paper reports on changes over a six month period in alcohol use, anger management experiences and transport risk taking behaviours including riding a bicycle without a helmet and under-age driving for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk early adolescents. Year 9 students (N=1,005) from 20 schools in Queensland, Australia completed a baseline survey in the first half of 2012 and at a six month follow up. Respondents at both times were asked about their engagement in risk taking behaviours measured by Mak’s adolescent delinquency scale, which included five transport related items. They were also asked to rate their alcohol use for the preceding three month period. The stability of these risk taking indicators was measured by comparing baseline results with the six month follow up. Results High-risk adolescents were more likely to report change in their alcohol use and transport behaviours when compared with non high-risk adolescents over a six month period. There were no significant changes in control of anger for either group. Demographic characteristics were not shown to have any significant effect on the stability of risk indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. Differences were found in the stability of risk taking indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. The findings of this paper have implications in targeting transport risk behaviour change interventions to meet the needs of high-risk adolescents.

Case-control study of early childhood caries in Australia

The aim of this case-control study of 617 children was to investigate early childhood caries (ECC) risk indicators in a non-fluoridated region in Australia. ECC cases were recruited from childcare facilities, public hospitals and private specialist clinics to source children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. Non-ECC controls were recruited from the same childcare facilities. A multinomial logistic modelling approach was used for statistical analysis. The results showed that a large percentage of children tested positive for Streptococcus mutans if their mothers also tested positive. A common risk indicator found in ECC children from childcare facilities and public hospitals was visible plaque (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.0-15.9, and OR 8.7, 95% CI 2.3-32.9, respectively). Compared to ECC-free controls, the risk indicators specific to childcare cases were enamel hypoplasia (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.0-18.3), difficulty in cleaning child's teeth (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.2-19.8), presence of S. mutans (OR 4.8, 95% CI 0.7-32.6), sweetened drinks (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.2-13.6) and maternal anxiety (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.1-25.0). Risk indicators specific to public hospital cases were S. mutans presence in child (OR 7.7, 95% CI 1.3-44.6) or mother (OR 8.1, 95% CI 0.9-72.4), ethnicity (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.4-22.1), and access of mother to pension or health care card (OR 20.5, 95% CI 3.5-119.9). By contrast, a history of chronic ear infections was found to be protective for ECC in childcare children (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09-0.82). The biological, socioeconomic and maternal risk indicators demonstrated in the present study can be employed in models of ECC that can be usefully applied for future longitudinal studies.

Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

Cumulative effects on the change of residual value in PPP projects: A comparative case study

Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been adopted widely to provide public facilities and services. According to the PPP agreement, PPP projects would be transferred to the public sector. However, problems related to the subsequent management of ongoing PPP projects have not been studied thoroughly. Residual value risk (RVR) can occur if the public sector cannot obtain the project in the desired conditions as required in the agreement when a project is being transferred. RVR has been identified as an important risk in PPPs and has greatly influenced the outputs of the projects. In order to further observe the change of residual value (RV) during the process of PPP projects and to reveal the internal mechanism for reducing the RVR, a comparative case study of two PPP projects in mainland China and Hong Kong was conducted. Based on the case study, different factors leading to RVR and a series of key risk indicators (KRIs) were identified. The comparison demonstrates that RVR is an important risk that could influence the success of PPP projects. The cumulative effects during the concession period can play significant roles in the occurrence of RVR. Additionally, the cumulative effects in different cases can make the RVR different because of different stakeholders’ efforts on the projects and ways to treat RVR. Finally, alternatives for the public sector to treat RVR were proposed. The findings of this research can reduce RVR and improve the performance of PPP projects.

Multiple indicators of ambient and personal ultraviolet radiation exposure and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (United States)

Recent epidemiologic studies have suggested that ultraviolet radiation (UV) may protect against non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but few, if any, have assessed multiple indicators of ambient and personal UV exposure. Using the US Radiologic Technologists study, we examined the association between NHL and self-reported time outdoors in summer, as well as average year-round and seasonal ambient exposures based on satellite estimates for different age periods, and sun susceptibility in participants who had responded to two questionnaires (1994–1998, 2003–2005) and who were cancer-free as of the earlier questionnaire. Using unconditional logistic regression, we estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals for 64,103 participants with 137 NHL cases. Self-reported time outdoors in summer was unrelated to risk. Lower risk was somewhat related to higher average year-round and winter ambient exposure for the period closest in time, and prior to, diagnosis (ages 20–39). Relative to 1.0 for the lowest quartile of average year-round ambient UV, the estimated OR for successively higher quartiles was 0.68 (0.42–1.10); 0.82 (0.52–1.29); and 0.64 (0.40–1.03), p-trend = 0.06), for this age period. The lower NHL risk associated with higher year-round average and winter ambient UV provides modest additional support for a protective relationship between UV and NHL.

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).

Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Microbial risk from rainwater tanks in South East Queensland

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater in South East Queensland (SEQ). A total of 84 rainwater samples were analysed for the presence of faecal indicators (using culture based methods) and zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogens using binary and quantitative PCR (qPCR). The concentrations of Salmonella invA, and Giardia lamblia β-giradin genes ranged from 65-380 genomic units/1000 mL and 9-57 genomic units/1000 mL of water, respectively. After converting gene copies to cell/cyst number, the risk of infection from G. lamblia and Salmonella spp. associated with the use of rainwater for bi-weekly garden hosing was calculated to be below the threshold value of 1 extra infection per 10,000 persons per year. However, the estimated risk of infection from drinking the rainwater daily was 44-250 (for G. lamblia) and 85-520 (for Salmonella spp.) infections per 10,000 persons per year. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically discussed. Nevertheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.

Infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of poor feeding practices in India : secondary data analysis of National Family Health Survey 2005–06

Background: In India, poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of malnutrition and infant and child mortality. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of selected feeding practices in India. Methods: The sample consisted of 20,108 children aged 0 to 23 months from the National Family Health Survey India 2005–06. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Only 23.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.2% had ever breastfed their infant, 89.8% were currently breastfeeding, and 14.8% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 46.4% were exclusively breastfed, and 56.7% of those aged 6 to 9 months received complementary foods. The risk factors for not exclusively breastfeeding were higher household wealth index quintiles (OR for richest = 2.03), delivery in a health facility (OR = 1.35), and living in the Northern region. Higher numbers of antenatal care visits were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.58). The rates of timely initiation of breastfeeding were higher among women who were better educated (OR for secondary education or above = 0.79), were working (OR = 0.79), made more antenatal clinic visits (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.48), and were exposed to the radio (OR = 0.76). The rates were lower in women who were delivered by cesarean section (OR = 2.52). The risk factors for bottle-feeding included cesarean delivery (OR = 1.44), higher household wealth index quintiles (OR = 3.06), working by the mother (OR=1.29), higher maternal education level (OR=1.32), urban residence (OR=1.46), and absence of postnatal examination (OR=1.24). The rates of timely complementary feeding were higher for mothers who had more antenatal visits (OR=0.57), and for those who watched television (OR=0.75). Conclusions: Revitalization of the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative in health facilities is recommended. Targeted interventions may be necessary to improve infant feeding practices in mothers who reside in urban areas, are more educated, and are from wealthier households.

Construction safety : development of an assessment tool to reduce risk on building sites

Australian construction and building workers are exposed to serious workplace risks - including injury, illness and death - and although there have been improvements in occupational health and safety (OHS) performance over the past 20 years, the injury and fatality rate in the Australian construction industry remains a matter of concern. The concept of safety culture is rapidly being adopted in the industry, including recognising the critical role that organisational leaders play in overall safety performance. This paper reviews recent research in construction safety leadership and provides some examples and applications relevant to risk reduction in the workforce. By focusing on developing safety competency in those that fulfil safety critical roles, and clearly articulating the relevant safety management tasks, leaders can positively influence the organisation’s safety culture. Finally, some promising research on Safety Effectiveness Indicators (SEIs) may be an industry-friendly solution to reducing workplace risks across the industry, by providing a credible, accurate, and timely measure of safety performance.