A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Vibrational spectroscopy of phthalocyanine and naphthalocyanine in sandwich-type (na)phthalocyaninato and porphyrinato rare earth complexes : (Part 10) The infrared and Raman characteristics of phthalocyanine in heteroleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth complexes with decreased molecular symmetry

The infrared (IR) spectroscopic data for a series of eleven heteroleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth complexes MIII(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] (M = Sm–Lu, Y) [H2Pc = unsubstituted phthalocyanine, H2Pc(α-OC5H11)4 = 1,8,15,22-tetrakis(3-pentyloxy)phthalocyanine] have been collected with 2 cm−1 resolution. Raman spectroscopic properties in the range of 500–1800 cm−1 for these double-decker molecules have also been comparatively studied using laser excitation sources emitting at 632.8 and 785 nm. Both the IR and Raman spectra for M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] are more complicated than those of homoleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth analogues due to the decreased molecular symmetry of these double-decker compounds, namely C4. For this series, the IR Pc√− marker band appears as an intense absorption at 1309–1317 cm−1, attributed to the pyrrole stretching. With laser excitation at 632.8 nm, Raman vibrations derived from isoindole ring and aza stretchings in the range of 1300–1600 cm−1 are selectively intensified. In contrast, when excited with laser radiation of 785 nm, the ring radial vibrations of isoindole moieties and dihedral plane deformations between 500 and 1000 cm−1 for M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] intensify to become the strongest scatterings. Both techniques reveal that the frequencies of pyrrole stretching, isoindole breathing, isoindole stretchings, aza stretchings and coupling of pyrrole and aza stretchings depend on the rare earth ionic size, shifting to higher energy along with the lanthanide contraction due to the increased ring-ring interaction across the series. The assignments of the vibrational bands for these compounds have been made and discussed in relation to other unsubstituted and substituted bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth analogues, such as M(Pc)2 and M(OOPc)2 [H2OOPc = 2,3,9,10,16,17,23,24-octakis(octyloxy)phthalocyanine].

Vibrational spectroscopy of phthalocyanine and naphthalocyanine in sandwich-type (na)phthalocyaninato and porphyrinato rare earth complexes: Part 14. The infrared and Raman characteristics of phthalocyanine in “pinwheel-like” homoleptic bis[1,8,15,22-tetrakis(3-pentyloxy)phthalocyaninato] rare earth(III) double-decker complexes

The infrared (IR) spectroscopic data and Raman spectroscopic properties for a series of 13 “pinwheel-like” homoleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth complexes M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2 [M = Y and Pr–Lu except Pm; H2Pc(α-OC5H11)4 = 1,8,15,22-tetrakis(3-pentyloxy)phthalocyanine] have been collected and comparatively studied. Both the IR and Raman spectra for M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2 are more complicated than those of homoleptic bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth analogues, namely M(Pc)2 and M[Pc(OC8H17)8]2, but resemble (for IR) or are a bit more complicated (for Raman) than those of heteroleptic counterparts M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4], revealing the decreased molecular symmetry of these double-decker compounds, namely S8. Except for the obvious splitting of the isoindole breathing band at 1110–1123 cm−1, the IR spectra of M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2 are quite similar to those of corresponding M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] and therefore are similarly assigned. With laser excitation at 633 nm, Raman bands derived from isoindole ring and aza stretchings in the range of 1300–1600 cm−1 are selectively intensified. The IR spectra reveal that the frequencies of pyrrole stretching and pyrrole stretching coupled with the symmetrical CH bending of –CH3 groups are sensitive to the rare earth ionic size, while the Raman technique shows that the bands due to the isoindole stretchings and the coupled pyrrole and aza stretchings are similarly affected. Nevertheless, the phthalocyanine monoanion radical Pc′− IR marker band of bis(phthalocyaninato) complexes involving the same rare earth ion is found to shift to lower energy in the order M(Pc)2 > M(Pc)[Pc(α-OC5H11)4] > M[Pc(α-OC5H11)4]2, revealing the weakened π–π interaction between the two phthalocyanine rings in the same order.

Raman spectroscopic characteristics of phthalocyanine and naphthalocyanine in sandwich-type phthalocyaninato and porphyrinato rare earth complexes Part 5. – Raman spectroscopic characteristics of naphthalocyanine in mixed [tetrakis(4-tert-butylphenyl)porphyrinato]-(naphthalocyaninato) rare earth double-deckers

Raman spectra were recorded in the range 400–1800 cm−1 for a series of 15 mixed \[tetrakis(4-tert-butylphenyl)porphyrinato](2,3-naphthalocyaninato) rare earth double-deckers M(TBPP)(Nc) (M = Y; La–Lu except Pm) using laser excitation at 632.8 and 785 nm. Comparisons with bis(naphthalocyaninato) rare earth counterparts reveal that the vibrations of the metallonaphthalocyanine M(Nc) fragment dominate the Raman features of M(TBPP)(Nc). When excited with radiation of 632.8 nm, the most intense vibration appears at about 1595 cm−1, due to the naphthalene stretching. These complexes exhibit the marker Raman band for Nc•− as a medium-intense band in the range 1496–1507 cm−1, attributed to the coupling of pyrrole and aza stretching, while the marker Raman band of Nc2− in intermediate-valence Ce(TBPP)(Nc) appears as a strong band at 1493 cm−1 and is due to the isoindole stretchings. By contrast, when excited with radiation of 785 nm that is in close resonance with the main Q absorption band of the naphthalocyanine ligand, the ring radial vibrations at ca 680 and 735 cm−1 for MIII(TBPP)(Nc) are selectively intensified and are the most intense bands. For the cerium double-decker, the most intense vibration also acting as the marker Raman band of Nc2− appears at 1497 cm−1 with contributions from both pyrrole CC and aza CN stretches. The same vibrational modes show weak to medium intensity scattering at 1506–1509 cm−1 for MIII(TBPP)(Nc) and this is the marker Raman band of Nc•− when thus excited. The scatterings due to the Nc breathings, ring radial vibration, aza group stretchings, naphthalene stretchings, benzoisoindole stretchings and the coupling of pyrrole CC and aza CN stretchings in MIII(TBPP)(Nc) are all slightly blue shifted along with the decrease in rare earth ionic radius, confirming the effects of increased ring–ring interactions on the Raman characteristics of naphthalocyanine in the mixed ring double-deckers.