Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Survey design: Insights from a public sector ERP success story

Research on the impact of Information Systems (IS) reported in both academic literature and popular press has reported confounding results. Some studies have reported encouraging results of IS, while others have reported nil or detrimental results. The contradictory results of these research studies can be partially attributed to the weaknesses in survey instruments. In an attempt to increase the validity of conclusions of IS assessment studies, survey instrument design should follow a rigorous and scientific procedure. This paper illustrates key validity and reliability issues in measuring Information Systems performance, using examples from a study designed to assess Enterprise Resource Planning systems success. The article emphasizes on the importance of the survey method and the theoretical considerations of item derivation, scale development and item evaluation. Examples are provided from the ERP assessment study to supplement the readers understanding of the theoretical concepts of survey design.

Australian national survey: preliminary findings

The National survey was the third phase in an ongoing initiative to identify critical success factors in ICT mediated supply chains. This study has been designed to harness the tacit and explicit knowledge to be found on the subject from the widest range of appropriate sources. At its core is the assumption that, provided with the fullest list of candidate success factors, a representative sample of experienced industry-based practitioners will (with the aid of statistical analysis) reveal a set of critical success factors. A postal survey has been judged to be the most appropriate mechanism for achieving this outcome.

Brite innovation survey : executive summary

This report summarises the fi ndings of an innovation survey of the Australian construction industry undertaken by the BRITE Project of the CRC for Construction Innovation in 2004. The BRITE Innovation Survey can be viewed in full at www.brite.crcci.info.The objective of the BRITE project is to improve the incidence and quality of innovation in the Australian construction industry. Many stakeholders in the industry are sceptical about the potential for innovation and its likely benefi ts. Many also lack the linkages and capabilities required for successful innovation. The BRITE Project is redressing this situation through demonstration and benchmarking activities. The term ‘innovation’ is defi ned as a new or signifi cantly improved technology or advanced business practice. Innovation may be technological or organisational, and it may be new to the world, or just new to the industry or business concerned. The defi nition includes the adoption of existing advancements developed outside a particular business. The survey sample was drawn from 3,500 businesses in the road/bridge and commercial building sectors in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, covering main contractors, trade contractors, consultants, suppliers and clients. Onethird of this population was sampled and a response rate of almost 30% was achieved. The survey collected information about respondents’ perceptions of innovation determinants in the industry, comprising various aspects of business strategy and business environment.

Report : school survey to collect data on material performance

A survey of a number of schools in a number of different climates was carried out to determine the condition of building components of interest in the project. Schools in Melbourne, the Victorian Surf Coast, Brisbane, Townsville and the Sunshine Coast were inspected. A rating system was devised to categorise the components and the results collated in tables. Analysis of the data (where sufficient examples permitted) resulted in formulae to predict the service of the components and a database was derived.

Management of sharps in ambulance care : a state-wide survey of paramedic knowledge and reported practice

Paramedics are at high risk of exposure to infectious diseases because they frequently undertake procedures such as the use and disposal of sharps as components of everyday practice. While the literature demonstrates that the management of sharps is problematic across all health disciplines, there is a paucity of research examining sharps management practices in the Australian pre-hospital paramedic context. This study examines knowledge and practices of sharps control among paramedics in Queensland, Australia. A mail survey focusing on infection control knowledge and practices was sent to all clinical personnel of the Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) (N = 2274). A total of 1258 surveys were returned, a response rate of 55.3%. Participants responded to 12 true/false statements on the management of sharps and three questions about recapping practices. Most respondents were knowledgeable about the correct management of sharps, with a mean of 11.28 (out of 12, SD = 1.32). When gauging reported practices, more than half (59.1%, n = 736) of participants reported recapping a needle, and 38.5% (n = 479) reported never having done so. These results reflect good knowledge of general management of sharps among respondents, but suggest deficits regarding reported practices. The results suggest that a comprehensive ambulance in-service education programme focusing particularly on sharps management is required. The study highlights the need for further research on sharps management practices in the field, identification of barriers to safe sharps practices in pre-hospital settings, and 'best practice' for translating good sharps management knowledge into practice.

Older patients request more information : a survey of use of written patient education materials in general practice

Objectives: To determine GPs' reported use of written education materials with older patients and older patients' reported receipt of these materials. To determine GPs' and older patients' perceptions of written materials.---------- Method: Using self-report questionnaires, two populations were surveyed; a randomised sample of 50 GPs (29 males and 21 females) practising in Brisbane's southern suburbs and a convenience sample of 188 older community-dwelling people (aged over 64 years).----------- Results: All GPs reported using written materials with patients, although 28% had not given any to the Last 10 patients. This increased to 46% when patients were older. Twenty percent of patients wanted more written information from their GP, while some GPs believed that older patients preferred verbal information and gave out written information only when they perceived patient interest. All GPs reported giving written materials at the time of consultation and over two thirds discussed the content with patients. Just over 50% of patients reported receiving written information from GPs in the Last six months and only hall of these again discussed it directly with their GP. Overall, patients were more positive than GPs about the value of written education materials.---------- Conclusions: Older patients' desire for written information may be better met if they are more assertive in requesting this of GPs and GPs may better serve their patients' needs if they make written information more readily available to them. Better access to materials and more financial incentives to give them out might also increase GPs' use of written materials.