Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

Geographic Variation of Notified Ross River Virus Infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (chi2(df = 2) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Infra-red pupil detection for use in a face recognition system

This paper presents a new method of eye localisation and face segmentation for use in a face recognition system. By using two near infrared light sources, we have shown that the face can be coarsely segmented, and the eyes can be accurately located, increasing the accuracy of the face localisation and improving the overall speed of the system. The system is able to locate both eyes within 25% of the eye-to-eye distance in over 96% of test cases.

Exploratory spatial analysis of social and environmental factors associated with the incidence of Ross River Virus in Brisbane, Australia

We used geographic information systems and a spatial analysis approach to explore the pattern of Ross River virus (RRV) incidence in Brisbane, Australia. Climate, vegetation and socioeconomic data in 2001 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Brisbane City Council and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Information on the RRV cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Spatial and multiple negative binomial regression models were used to identify the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of RRV transmission. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeastern, northwestern, and southeastern regions in Brisbane. Multiple negative binomial regression models showed that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane seemed to be determined by a combination of local ecologic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

The same river twice

This article reviews an exhibition of art works at the Institute for Modern Art that dealt with the idea of history. The review suggests that history is an unstable product of our collective imaginations and is constantly open to revisions and individual perspectives. Each of the artists deal with these issues by reinterpreting past events. The artists were Pierre Huyghe, Thomas Demand, Mike Kelley, paul McCarthy, Jeremy Deller, Danius Kesminas, Gerard Byrne, Emma Kay, and Omer Fast.

The trials and tribulations of partnerships in refugee settlement services in Australia

The ascendency of neoliberal ideas in education and social policy in the 1980s and 1990s was succeeded in the new millennium by a ‘new’ social democratic commitment with emphases on community empowerment, building social capital and a ‘whole of government’ approach to partnering with civil society to meet community needs. In Australia this approach has resulted in the development of partnerships between schools and community organisations formed as part of a targeted, holistic approach to service delivery to meet the settlement and educational needs of refugee youth. Drawing on interviews conducted with community workers and government officers involved in the school-community partnerships, we document how these partnerships are working ‘on the ground’ in Queensland schools. We analyse our findings against the international literature on changing notions of neoliberal governance, and discuss the implications of the shift to the ‘partnering state’ for schools and community organisations working with refugee young people.

Members abroad - Australia - Brisbane and the Gold Coast

Brisbane's sub-tropical climate, vegetation and urban history as a British settlement, endow the region with many characteristics that are familiar in KwaZulu-Natal. Brisbane settlement, firstly as a penal conlony to accommodate the hardiest criminals dispatched from Sydney, was established in 1825 on a wide river, several kilometers upstream from Moreton Bay with the Pacific Ocean beyond. The penal colony was short lived and was soon opened up to free settlement in 1842. The growth of the fledgling town was characterized by brick warehouse and service buildings to the port that was established on its riverbanks, resembling those of the old Point Road area in Durban. Government and administration buildings heralded Brisbane as the captial city of the State of Queensland, annexed from New South Wales in 1859. Morphological studies reveal that Brisbane had reached its first zenith around 1930 as a commerical city of four and five storey buildings. The urban form remained stagnant until the post-1960's building boom and the developments from this period on, consolidated land amalgamations largely ignoring the urban characteristics of the established city. Public space was poorly observed, resulting in a city that had turned its back on the river. It is only in recent times that the currency of good urban design, under the custodial direction of the City Council, has fostered a re-engagemed urban realm that, enabled by the recent building boom, has delivered high quality urban environments

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.