Bayesian network for risk of diarrhea associated with the use of recycled water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.

An evaluation of alternative media for pebble matrix filtration using clay balls and recycled crushed glass

Protecting slow sand filters (SSFs) from high-turbidity waters by pretreatment using pebble matrix filtration (PMF) has previously been studied in the laboratory at University College London, followed by pilot field trials in Papua New Guinea and Serbia. The first full-scale PMF plant was completed at a water-treatment plant in Sri Lanka in 2008, and during its construction, problems were encountered in sourcing the required size of pebbles and sand as filter media. Because sourcing of uniform-sized pebbles may be problematic in many countries, the performance of alternative media has been investigated for the sustainability of the PMF system. Hand-formed clay balls made at a 100-yearold brick factory in the United Kingdom appear to have satisfied the role of pebbles, and a laboratory filter column was operated by using these clay balls together with recycled crushed glass as an alternative to sand media in the PMF. Results showed that in countries where uniform-sized pebbles are difficult to obtain, clay balls are an effective and feasible alternative to natural pebbles. Also, recycled crushed glass performed as well as or better than silica sand as an alternative fine media in the clarification process, although cleaning by drainage was more effective with sand media. In the tested filtration velocity range of ð0:72–1:33Þ m=h and inlet turbidity range of (78–589) NTU, both sand and glass produced above 95% removal efficiencies. The head loss development during clogging was about 30% higher in sand than in glass media.

Assessment of recycled concrete aggregate for road base and sub-base

Population increase and economic developments can lead to construction as well as demolition of infrastructures such as buildings, bridges, roads, etc and used concrete is the main waste product of them. Recycling of waste concrete to obtain the recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for base and/or sub-base materials in road construction is a foremost application to be promoted to gain economical and sustainable benefits. As the mortar, bricks, glass and asphalt present in different constituents in RCA, it exhibits inconsistent properties and performance. In this study, six different types of RCA samples were subjected classification tests such as particle size distribution, plasticity, compaction test and California Bearing Ratio (CBR). Results were compared with those of the standard road materials used in Queensland, Australia and found that ‘RM1-100/RM3-0’ and ‘RM1-80/RM3-20’ samples are sitting in the margin of the minimum required specifications of base materials while others are lower than that.

Laboratory study on the performance of recycled concrete aggregates blended with reclaimed asphalt pavement as pavement granular material

Production of recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) from construction and demolition (C&D) waste has become popular all over the world since the availability of land spaces are limited to dispose. Therefore it is important to seek alternative applications for RCA. The use of RCA in base and sub-base layers in granular pavement is a viable solution. In mechanistic pavement design, rutting (permanent deformation) is considered as the major failure mechanisms of the pavement. The rutting is the accumulation of permanent deformation of pavement layers caused by the repetitive vehicle load. In Queensland, Australia, it is accepted to have the maximum of 20% of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) in RCA and therefore, it is important to investigate the effect of RAP on the permanent deformation properties of RCA. In this study, a series of repeated load triaxial (RLT) tests were conducted on RCA blended with different percentage of RAP to investigate the permanent deformation and resilient modulus properties of RCA. The vertical deformation and resilient modulus values were used to determine the response of RCA for the cyclic loading under standard pressure and loading conditions.

Assessment of recycled concrete aggregates as a pavement material

Population increase and economic developments can lead to construction as well as demolition of infrastructures such as buildings, bridges, roads, etc resulting in used concrete as a primary waste product. Recycling of waste concrete to obtain the recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for base and/or sub-base materials in road construction is a foremost application to be promoted to gain economical and sustainability benefits. As the mortar, bricks, glass and reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) present as constituents in RCA, it exhibits inconsistent properties and performance. In this study, six different types of RCA samples were subjected classification tests such as particle size distribution, plasticity, compaction test, unconfined compressive strength (UCS) and California bearing ratio (CBR) tests. Results were compared with those of the standard road materials used in Queensland, Australia. It was found that material type ‘RM1-100/RM3-0’ and ‘RM1-80/RM3-20’ samples are in the margin of the minimum required specifications of base materials used for high volume unbound granular roads while others are lower than that the minimum requirement.

Handmade clay balls and recycled crush glass as alternative media in water filtration

For many years materials such as quarried sand, anthracite, and granular activated carbon have been the principal media-products traditionally used in water and wastewater filtration plants. Pebble Matrix Filtration (PMF) is a novel non-chemical, sustainable pre-treatment method of protecting Slow Sand Filters (SSF) from high turbidity during heavy monsoon periods. PMF uses sand and pebbles as the filter media and the sustainability of this new technology might depend on availability and supply of pebbles and sand, both finite resources. In many countries there are two principal methods of obtaining pebbles and sand, namely dredging from rivers and beaches, and due to the scarcity of these resources in some countries the cost of pebbles is often 4-5 times higher than that of sand. In search for an alternative medium to pebbles after some preliminary laboratory tests conducted in Colombo-Sri Lanka, Poznan-Poland and Cambridge-UK, a 100-year-old brick factory near Sudbury, Suffolk, has produced hand-made clay pebbles satisfying the PMF quality requirements. As an alternative to sand, crushed recycled glass from a UK supplier was used and the PMF system was operated together with hand-made clay balls in the laboratory for high turbidity removal effectively. The results of laboratory experiments with alternative media are presented in this paper. There are potential opportunities for recycled crushed glass and clay ball manufacturing processes in some countries where they can be used as filter media.

Investigation on characteristics and performance of recycled concrete aggregates as granular materials for unbound pavements

This research was a step forward in investigating the characteristics of recycled concrete aggregates to use as an unbound pavement material. The results present the guidelines for successfully application of recycled concrete aggregates in high traffic volume roads. Outcomes of the research create more economical and environmental benefits through reducing the depletion of natural resources and effectively manage the generated concrete waste before disposal as land fill.

Effects of moisture content on resilient properties of recycled concrete aggregates (RCAs)

In pavement design, resilient modulus of a pavement material is one of the key design parameters. Resilient modulus of a granular pavement material can be measured using repeated load Triaxial (RLT) test or estimated using empirical models. For conventional granular pavement materials, a significant amount of resilient modulus data and empirical models to estimate this key design parameter are available. However, RCA is a relatively new granular pavement material and therefore no such data or empirical models are available. In this study, a number of RLT tests were conducted on RCA sample to investigate the effects of moisture content on its resilient modulus (Mr). It was observed that the resilient modulus of RCA increased with a number of loading cycles but decreased as the moisture content was increased. Further, using RLT test results, empirical models to estimate the resilient modulus of RCA were enhanced and validated.

Feasibility studies on using microwave-heating techniques for recycling lead waste

Lead is present everywhere in the environment and has been defined as one of the greatest threats to the human health. In this paper, attempts have been made to study a way of recycling the lead produced from waste usage and disposed of in such a way as to avoid degrading the surrounding environment. In order to contain the waste, recycled asphalt material is mixed with the lead and then heated with microwave energy. This is an attempt to solidify and reduce the lead contaminants and use the final product as sub-base material in road pavement construction. The microwave heating of the specimens is carried out with 30%, 50%, 80% and 100% of power at 800W. The optimum power mode is used to compare with the conventional heating of asphalt with sulfur additive. The results are characterized by compact density, permeability, and subjected to toxicity test with regards to lead concentration. A mechanical test to evaluate the stability is also performed on the three methods of solidification and to prove that microwave zapping method allow to convert into an environmentally stable material for recycling without having to be deposited in a landfill site.

Methodologies for investigating relationships between concept development and the development of problem solving abilities

This paper is the second in a pair that Lesh, English, and Fennewald will be presenting at ICME TSG 19 on Problem Solving in Mathematics Education. The first paper describes three shortcomings of past research on mathematical problem solving. The first shortcoming can be seen in the fact that knowledge has not accumulated – in fact it has atrophied significantly during the past decade. Unsuccessful theories continue to be recycled and embellished. One reason for this is that researchers generally have failed to develop research tools needed to reliably observe, document, and assess the development of concepts and abilities that they claim to be important. The second shortcoming is that existing theories and research have failed to make it clear how concept development (or the development of basic skills) is related to the development of problem solving abilities – especially when attention is shifted beyond word problems found in school to the kind of problems found outside of school, where the requisite skills and even the questions to be asked might not be known in advance. The third shortcoming has to do with inherent weaknesses in observational studies and teaching experiments – and the assumption that a single grand theory should be able to describe all of the conceptual systems, instructional systems, and assessment systems that strongly molded and shaped by the same theoretical perspectives that are being used to develop them. Therefore, this paper will describe theoretical perspectives and methodological tools that are proving to be effective to combat the preceding kinds or shortcomings. We refer to our theoretical framework as models & modeling perspectives (MMP) on problem solving (Lesh & Doerr, 2003), learning, and teaching. One of the main methodologies of MMP is called multi-tier design studies (MTD).

Urban rural water exchange : PRW in the Lockyer Valley

A significant amount (ca. 15-25 GL/a) of PRW (Purified Recycled Water) from urban areas is foreseen as augmentation of the depleted groundwater resources of the Lockyer Valley (approx. 80 km west of Brisbane). Theresearch project uses field investigations, lab trials and modelling techniques to address the key challenges: (i) how to determine benefits of individual users from the augmentation of a natural common pool resource; (ii) how to minimise impacts of applying different quality water on the Lockyer soils, to creeks and on aquifier materials; (iii) how to minimuse mobilisation of salts in the unsaturated and saturated zones as a result of increased deep drainage; (iv) determination of potential for direct aquifer recharge using injection wells?

Understanding the Aquifier : 3D Visualisation and Groundwater Time-Series Animation in Lockyer Valley

The Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, hosts intensive irrigated agriculture using groundwater from over 5000 alluvial bores. A current project is considering introduction of PRW (purified recycled water) to augment groundwater supplies. To assess this, a valley-wide MODFLOW simulation model is being developed plus a new unsaturated zone flow model. To underpin these models and provide a realistic understanding of the aquifer framework a 3D visualisation model has been developed using Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) software produced at QUT.

Analysis of alternative water sources for use in the manufacture of concrete

In Australia and many other countries worldwide, water used in the manufacture of concrete must be potable. At present, it is currently thought that concrete properties are highly influenced by the water type used and its proportion in the concrete mix, but actually there is little knowledge of the effects of different, alternative water sources used in concrete mix design. Therefore, the identification of the level and nature of contamination in available water sources and their subsequent influence on concrete properties is becoming increasingly important. Of most interest, is the recycled washout water currently used by batch plants as mixing water for concrete. Recycled washout water is the water used onsite for a variety of purposes, including washing of truck agitator bowls, wetting down of aggregate and run off. This report presents current information on the quality of concrete mixing water in terms of mandatory limits and guidelines on impurities as well as investigating the impact of recycled washout water on concrete performance. It also explores new sources of recycled water in terms of their quality and suitability for use in concrete production. The complete recycling of washout water has been considered for use in concrete mixing plants because of the great benefit in terms of reducing the cost of waste disposal cost and environmental conservation. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of using washout water on the properties of fresh and hardened concrete. This was carried out by utilizing a 10 week sampling program from three representative sites across South East Queensland. The sample sites chosen represented a cross-section of plant recycling methods, from most effective to least effective. The washout water samples collected from each site were then analysed in accordance with Standards Association of Australia AS/NZS 5667.1 :1998. These tests revealed that, compared with tap water, the washout water was higher in alkalinity, pH, and total dissolved solids content. However, washout water with a total dissolved solids content of less than 6% could be used in the production of concrete with acceptable strength and durability. These results were then interpreted using chemometric techniques of Principal Component Analysis, SIMCA and the Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods PROMETHEE and GAIA were used to rank the samples from cleanest to unclean. It was found that even the simplest purifying processes provided water suitable for the manufacture of concrete form wash out water. These results were compared to a series of alternative water sources. The water sources included treated effluent, sea water and dam water and were subject to the same testing parameters as the reference set. Analysis of these results also found that despite having higher levels of both organic and inorganic properties, the waters complied with the parameter thresholds given in the American Standard Test Method (ASTM) C913-08. All of the alternative sources were found to be suitable sources of water for the manufacture of plain concrete.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.