The effects of sensing and seizing of market opportunities and reconfiguring activities on the organisational resource base

This study has important implications for marketing theory and practice. In an era of turbulent market environments, the organisational ability to sense and seize market opportunities and to reconfigure the resource base accordingly, has significant effects on performance. This paper uses a dynamic capability framework to explain more explicitly the intricacies of the relationship between sensing and seizing of market opportunities and reconfiguring the resource base (i.e. dynamic capabilities) and the resource base. We investigate how the attributes of dynamic capability deployment, timing, frequency and speed, influence the resource base. We test the proposed framework using survey data from 228 large organisations. Findings show that the timing and frequency of dynamic capability deployment have significant effects on the resource base.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Changing musical emotion : a computational rule system for modifying score and performance

When communicating emotion in music, composers and performers encode their expressive intentions through the control of basic musical features such as: pitch, loudness, timbre, mode, and articulation. The extent to which emotion can be controlled through the systematic manipulation of these features has not been fully examined. In this paper we present CMERS, a Computational Music Emotion Rule System for the control of perceived musical emotion that modifies features at the levels of score and performance in real-time. CMERS performance was evaluated in two rounds of perceptual testing. In experiment I, 20 participants continuously rated the perceived emotion of 15 music samples generated by CMERS. Three music works, each with five emotional variations were used (normal, happy, sad, angry, and tender). The intended emotion by CMERS was correctly identified 78% of the time, with significant shifts in valence and arousal also recorded, regardless of the works’ original emotion.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Quantifying N2O and CO2 emissions from subtropical pasture

Greenhouse gas emissions from a well established, unfertilized tropical grass-legume pasture were monitored over two consecutive years using high resolution automatic sampling. Nitrous oxide emissions were highest during the summer months and were highly episodic, related more to the size and distribution of rain events than WFPS alone. Mean annual emissions were significantly higher during 2008 (5.7 ± 1.0 g N2O-N/ha/day) than 2007 (3.9 ± 0.4 and g N2O-N/ha/day) despite receiving nearly 500 mm less rain. Mean CO2 (28.2 ± 1.5 kg CO2 C/ha/day) was not significantly different (P < 0.01) between measurement years, emissions being highly dependent on temperature. A negative correlation between CO2 and WFPS at >70% indicated a threshold for soil conditions favouring denitrification. The use of automatic chambers for high resolution greenhouse gas sampling can greatly reduce emission estimation errors associated with temperature and WFPS changes.

Nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated cotton soils of northern Australia

An automated gas sampling methodology has been used to estimate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from heavy black clay soil in northern Australia where split applications of urea were applied to furrow irrigated cotton. Nitrous oxide emissions from the beds were 643 g N/ha over the 188 day measurement period (after planting), whilst the N2O emissions from the furrows were significantly higher at 967 g N/ha. The DNDC model was used to develop a full season simulation of N2O and N2 emissions. Seasonal N2O emissions were equivalent to 0.83% of applied N, with total gaseous N losses (excluding NH3) estimated to be 16% of the applied N.