Development priority zoning (DPZ)-led scenario simulation for regional land use change : the case of Suichang County, China

China has experienced an extraordinary level of economic development since the 1990s, following excessive competition between different regions. This has resulted in many resource and environmental problems. Land resources, for example, are either abused or wasted in many regions. The strategy of development priority zoning (DPZ), proposed by the Chinese National 11th Five-Year Plan, provides an opportunity to solve these problems by coordinating regional development and protection. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the DPZ strategy should be integrated with regional land use policy. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model for assessing land use change in China led by the DPZ strategy. Land use is characterized by the prioritization of land development, land utilization, land harness and land protection (D-U-H-P). By using the Delphi method, a corresponding suitable prioritization of D-U-H-P for the four types of DPZ, including optimized development zones (ODZ), key development zones (KDZ), restricted development zones (RDZ), and forbidden development zones (FDZ) are identified. Suichang County is used as a case study in which to conduct the simulation of land use change under the RDZ strategy. The findings enable a conceptualization to be made of DPZ-led land use change and the identification of further implications for land use planning generally. The SD model also provides a potential tool for local government to combine DPZ strategy at the national level with land use planning at the local level.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

An Analysis of Cancer Patients' Survival and Influent Factors from 1993 to 1999 in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县1993~1999年恶性肿瘤患者的生存率及其影响因素分析]

To understand the survival status of cancer patients and influencing factors, an analysis was undertaken using data of 6450 cancer patients living in Linqu County, Shandong, diagnosed between 1993 and 1999. Survival rates were calculated using life table method with SAS 9.0 software. Overall 1-5 year survival rates for all patients were 53.16%, 28.65%, 21.57%, 18.36% and 17.87%, respectively. Cancers with a 5-year survival rate over 25% included ovarium, breast, uterus, stomach and colorectal cancers. Cancers with a 5-year survival lower than 10% were cancers on liver, cervical, lung and bones.Survival rates differed significantly across gender, age of onset, economic status, year of diagnosis and evidence of diagnosis. Patients' economic status, age of diagnosis and year of diagnosis seem to have strong effects on survival. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤患者生存现状,探讨影响生存率的因素. [方法] 对临朐县1993～1999年发病的6450例肿瘤患者的生存资料进行分析,利用SAS9.0软件寿命表法计算生存率. [结果] 临朐县1993～1999年的恶性肿瘤患者1～5年生存率分别为53.16%、28.65%、21.57%、18.36%和17.87%,5年生存率超过25%的恶性肿瘤有卵巢癌、乳腺癌、宫体癌、胃癌、结直肠癌,5年生存率低于10%的有肝癌、宫颈癌、肺癌、骨恶性肿瘤.不同性别、发病年龄、经济状况、诊断时间和诊断依据的恶性肿瘤生存率有显著性差异. [结论] 患者经济条件、诊断年龄和诊断时间影响恶性肿瘤生存率.

An analysis on trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与 死亡趋势分析]

Purpose To investigate the trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu county, and to provide scientific evidence for the government to design and adjust polices on cancer prevention and control. [Methods] The cancer registration data of new cases from 1995 to 2004 and death cases from 1998 to 2004 were used to analyse the incidence and mortality and the trend in Linqu county. Results Cancer general incidence significantly increased from 1995 to 2004 (P<0.05). The increasing speed incidence in male was faster than that in female. The incidence of lung cancer, colon/rectum cancer and pancreas cancer increased significantly (P<0.05), especially of lung cancer with an acceleration incidence rate of 2.12/100,000 peryear in average. The general mortality increased gradually from 1998 to 2004 with no significance (P>0.05). Both incidence and mortality in population aged 80 or over increased significantly (P<0.05). Conclusion The cancer incidence is rising during recent 10 years , and the prevention and control for lung cancer are getting increasingly important. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势,为政府制订和调整防治对策提供科学依据. [方法] 利用临朐县1995～2004年恶性肿瘤发病登记资料和1998～2004年的死亡登记资料,计算各种癌症发病率和死亡率,并做趋势分析. [结果] 1995～2004年临朐县恶性肿瘤总发病率呈明显上升趋势(P＜0.05),男性发病率上升速度高于女性.肺癌、肠癌、胰腺癌发病率上升显著(P＜0.05),以肺癌最为迅速(年均升高2.12/10万).1998～2004年恶性肿瘤总死亡率略有上升,但无显著性(P＞0.05);80岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤发病率与死亡率均呈上升趋势. [结论] 临朐县恶性肿瘤发病率近10年来呈现上升趋势,肺癌防治地位日益突出.

Nondelegable duty : the implications of Woodland v Essex County Council

English law has long recognised that nondelagable duties exist, but it does not have a single theory to explain when or why - arguable, one might add, until now. That is the value of the reasons for judgement in Woodland v Essex County Council.