Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Relationships between rainfall intensity, duration and suspended particle washoff from an urban road surface

A basic understanding of the relationships between rainfall intensity, duration of rainfall and the amount of suspended particles in stormwater runoff generated from road surfaces has been gained mainly from past washoff experiments using rainfall simulators. Simulated rainfall was generally applied at constant intensities, whereas rainfall temporal patterns during actual storms are typically highly variable. This paper discusses a rationale for the application of the constant-intensity washoff concepts to actual storm event runoff. The rationale is tested using suspended particle load data collected at a road site located in Toowoomba, Australia. Agreement between the washoff concepts and measured data is most consistent for intermediate-duration storms (duration <5 h and >1 h). Particle loads resulting from these storm events increase linearly with average rainfall intensity. Above a threshold intensity, there is evidence to suggest a constant or plateau particle load is reached. The inclusion of a peak discharge factor (maximum 6 min rainfall intensity) enhances the ability to predict particle loads.

Turbulent velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements in an urban environment of the Brisbane River Flood Plain at Gardens Point on 12-13 January 2011

The flood flow in urbanised areas constitutes a major hazard to the population and infrastructure as seen during the summer 2010-2011 floods in Queensland (Australia). Flood flows in urban environments have been studied relatively recently, although no study considered the impact of turbulence in the flow. During the 12-13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River, some turbulence measurements were conducted in an inundated urban environment in Gardens Point Road next to Brisbane's central business district (CBD) at relatively high frequency (50 Hz). The properties of the sediment flood deposits were characterised and the acoustic Doppler velocimeter unit was calibrated to obtain both instantaneous velocity components and suspended sediment concentration in the same sampling volume with the same temporal resolution. While the flow motion in Gardens Point Road was subcritical, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with a distinctive period between 50 and 80 s. The low frequency fluctuations were linked with some local topographic effects: i.e, some local choke induced by an upstream constriction between stairwells caused some slow oscillations with a period close to the natural sloshing period of the car park. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition, and the same triple decomposition was applied to the water depth, velocity flux, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment flux data. The velocity fluctuation data showed a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range. For the first two tests at z = 0.35 m, the turbulence data suggested some isotropy. At z = 0.083 m, on the other hand, the findings indicated some flow anisotropy. The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. During a test (T4), some long -period oscillations were observed with a period about 18 minutes. The cause of these oscillations remains unknown to the authors. The last test (T5) took place in very shallow waters and high suspended sediment concentrations. It is suggested that the flow in the car park was disconnected from the main channel. Overall the flow conditions at the sampling sites corresponded to a specific momentum between 0.2 to 0.4 m2 which would be near the upper end of the scale for safe evacuation of individuals in flooded areas. But the authors do not believe the evacuation of individuals in Gardens Point Road would have been safe because of the intense water surges and flow turbulence. More generally any criterion for safe evacuation solely based upon the flow velocity, water depth or specific momentum cannot account for the hazards caused by the flow turbulence, water depth fluctuations and water surges.

Exploratory investigation of atmospheric total suspended particulate matter and heavy metals in urban air

Atmospheric concentration of total suspended particulate matter (TSP) and associated heavy metals are a great concern due to their adverse health impacts and contribution to stormwater pollution. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study which investigated the variation of atmospheric TSP and heavy metal concentrations with traffic and land use characteristics during weekdays and weekends. Data for this study was gathered from fifteen sites at the Gold Coast, Australia using a high volume air sampler. The study detected consistently high TSP concentrations during weekdays compared to weekends. This confirms the significant influence of traffic related sources on TSP loads during weekdays. Both traffic and land use related sources equally contribute to TSP during weekends. Almost all the measured heavy metals showed high concentration on weekdays compared to weekends indicating significant contributions from traffic related emissions. Among the heavy metals, Zn concentration was the highest followed by Pb. It is postulated that re-suspension of previously deposited reserves was the main Pb source. Soil related sources were the main contributors of Mn.

Photocatalytic disinfection of bacterial pollutants using suspended and immobilized TiO(2) powders

The photocatalytic disinfection of Enterobacter cloacae and Enterobacter coli using microwave (MW), convection hydrothermal (HT) and Degussa P25 titania was investigated in suspension and immobilized reactors. In suspension reactors, MW-treated TiO(2) was the most efficient catalyst (per unit weight of catalyst) for the disinfection of E. cloacae. However, HT-treated TiO(2) was approximately 10 times more efficient than MW or P25 titania for the disinfection of E. coli suspensions in surface water using the immobilized reactor. In immobilized experiments, using surface water a significant amount of photolysis was observed using the MW- and HT-treated films; however, disinfection on P25 films was primarily attributed to photocatalysis. Competitive action of inorganic ions and humic substances for hydroxyl radicals during photocatalytic experiments, as well as humic substances physically screening the cells from UV and hydroxyl radical attack resulted in low rates of disinfection. A decrease in colony size (from 1.5 to 0.3 mm) was noted during photocatalytic experiments. The smaller than average colonies were thought to occur during sublethal (•) OH and O(2) (•-) attack. Catalyst fouling was observed following experiments in surface water and the ability to regenerate the surface was demonstrated using photocatalytic degradation of oxalic acid as a model test system

Turbulence and suspended sediment measurements in an urban environment during the Brisbane River flood of January 2011

In urbanised areas, the flood flows constitute a hazard to populations and infrastructure as illustrated during major floods in 2011. During the 2011 Brisbane River flood, some turbulent velocity data were collected using acoustic Doppler velocimetry in an inundated street. The field deployment showed some unusual features of flood flow in the urban environment. That is, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with distinctive periods between 50 and 100 s linked with some local topographic effects. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition. The velocity fluctuations included a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range, while the turbulent motion components were much smaller. The suspended sediment data showed some significant longitudinal flux. Altogether the results highlighted that the triple decomposition approach originally developed for period flows is well suited to complicated flows in an inundated urban environment.

Suspended sediment properties and suspended sediment flux estimates in an inundated urban environment during a major flood event

During a major flood event, the inundation of urban environments leads to some complicated flow motion most often associated with significant sediment fluxes. In the present study, a series of field measurements were conducted in an inundated section of the City of Brisbane (Australia) about the peak of a major flood in January 2011. Some experiments were performed to use ADV backscatter amplitude as a surrogate estimate of the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) during the flood event. The flood water deposit samples were predominantly silty material with a median particle size about 25 μm and they exhibited a non-Newtonian behavior under rheological testing. In the inundated urban environment during the flood, estimates of suspended sediment concentration presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. The suspended sediment flux data showed some substantial sediment flux amplitudes consistent with the murky appearance of floodwaters. Altogether the results highlighted the large suspended sediment loads and fluctuations in the inundated urban setting associated possibly with a non-Newtonian behavior. During the receding flood, some unusual long-period oscillations were observed (periods about 18 min), although the cause of these oscillations remains unknown. The field deployment was conducted in challenging conditions highlighting a number of practical issues during a natural disaster.

Dynamics of nitrogen and suspended solids removal in experimental stormwater biofilters under intermittent wetting and drying

This research study comprehensively analyses the dynamics of nitrogen and suspended solids removal in stormwater biofilters. The study focuses on pollutant removal during an event with time, rather than the conventional event-mean analysis. Antecedent dry days (number of days in between rainfall) during which biofilters remain dry and the inflow concentration of pollutants were two other important variables analysed in this study. The research outcome highlights the significance of dry-phase processes and the process of stabilization on filter performance and sets a paradigm shift from the current approach towards an innovative way of performance analysis of biofilters.

Multi-rotor with suspended load: System dynamics and control toolbox

There is an increasing demand for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to carry suspended loads as this can provide significant benefits to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction. The load impact on the underlying system dynamics should not be neglected as significant feedback forces may be induced on the vehicle during certain flight manoeuvres. The constant variation in operating point induced by the slung load also causes conventional controllers to demand increased control effort. Much research has focused on standard multi-rotor position and attitude control with and without a slung load. However, predictive control schemes, such as Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), have not yet been fully explored. To this end, we present a novel controller for safe and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung load in three dimensions. The paper describes a System Dynamics and Control Simulation Toolbox for use with MATLAB/SIMULINK which includes a detailed simulation of the multi-rotor and slung load as well as a predictive controller to manage the nonlinear dynamics whilst accounting for system constraints. It is demonstrated that the controller simultaneously tracks specified waypoints and actively damps large slung load oscillations. A linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) is derived and control performance is compared. Results show the improved performance of the predictive controller for a larger flight envelope, including aggressive manoeuvres and large slung load displacements. The computational cost remains relatively small, amenable to practical implementations.

Structural identification of a laboratory-based steel through truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS)

Structural identification (St-Id) can be considered as the process of updating a finite element (FE) model of a structural system to match the measured response of the structure. This paper presents the St-Id of a laboratory-based steel through-truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span. There are a total of 600 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the superstructure plus additional DOFs in the substructure. The St-Id of the bridge model used the modal parameters from a preliminary modal test in the objective function of a global optimisation technique using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS). Each layer of the St-Id process involved grouping of the structural parameters into a number of updating parameters and running parallel optimisations. The number of updating parameters was increased at each layer of the process. In order to accelerate the optimisation and ensure improved diversity within the population, a patternsearch step was applied to the fittest individuals at the end of each generation of the GA. The GAPS process was able to replicate the mode shapes for the first two lateral sway modes and the first vertical bending mode to a high degree of accuracy and, to a lesser degree, the mode shape of the first lateral bending mode. The mode shape and frequency of the torsional mode did not match very well. The frequencies of the first lateral bending mode, the first longitudinal mode and the first vertical mode matched very well. The frequency of the first sway mode was lower and that of the second sway mode was higher than the true values, indicating a possible problem with the FE model. Improvements to the model and the St-Id process will be presented at the upcoming conference and compared to the results presented in this paper. These improvements will include the use of multiple FE models in a multi-layered, multi-solution, GAPS St-Id approach.

Use of modal flexibility method to detect damage in suspended cables and the effects of cable parameters

Modal flexibility is a widely accepted technique to detect structural damage using vibration characteristics. Its application to detect damage in long span large diameter cables such as those used in suspension bridge main cables has not received much attention. This paper uses the modal flexibility method incorporating two damage indices (DIs) based on lateral and vertical modes to localize damage in such cables. The competency of those DIs in damage detection is tested by the numerically obtained vibration characteristics of a suspended cable in both intact and damaged states. Three single damage cases and one multiple damage case are considered. The impact of random measurement noise in the modal data on the damage localization capability of these two DIs is next examined. Long span large diameter cables are characterized by the two critical cable parameters named bending stiffness and sag-extensibility. The influence of these parameters in the damage localization capability of the two DIs is evaluated by a parametric study with two single damage cases. Results confirm that the damage index based on lateral vibration modes has the ability to successfully detect and locate damage in suspended cables with 5% noise in modal data for a range of cable parameters. This simple approach therefore can be extended for timely damage detection in cables of suspension bridges and thereby enhance their service during their life spans.

Modelling of the evaporation of a droplet suspended in a binary atmosphere

The process of spray drying is applied in a number of contexts. One such application is the production of a synthetic rock used for storage of nuclear waste. To establish a framework for a model of the spray drying process for this application, we here develop a model describing evaporation from droplets of pure water, such that the model may be extended to account for the presence of colloid within the droplet. We develop a spherically-symmetric model and formulate continuum equations describing mass, momentum, and energy balance in both the liquid and gas phases from first principles. We establish appropriate boundary conditions at the surface of the droplet, including a generalised Clapeyron equation that accurately describes the temperature at the surface of the droplet. To account for experiment design, we introduce a simplified platinum ball and wire model into the system using a thin wire problem. The resulting system of equations is transformed in order to simplify a finite volume solution scheme. The results from numerical simulation are compared with data collected for validation, and the sensitivity of the model to variations in key parameters, and to the use of Clausius–Clapeyron and generalised Clapeyron equations, is investigated. Good agreement is found between the model and experimental data, despite the simplicity of the platinum phase model.