Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Greener and leaner : unleashing capacity of railroad concrete ties via limit states concept

New knowledge has raised a concern about the cost-ineffective design methods and the true performance of railroad prestressed concrete ties. Because of previous knowledge deficiencies, railway civil and track engineers have been aware of the conservative design methods for structural components in any railway track that rely on allowable stresses and material strength reductions. In particular, railway sleeper (or railroad tie) is an important component of railway tracks and is commonly made of prestressed concrete. The existing code for designing such components makes use of the permissible stress design concept, whereas the fiber stresses over cross sections at initial and final stages are limited by some empirical values. It is believed that the concrete ties complying with the permissible stress concept possess unduly untapped fracture toughness, based on a number of proven experiments and field data. Collaborative research run by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Railway Engineering and Technologies (Rail CRC) was initiated to ascertain the reserved capacity of Australian railway prestressed concrete ties that were designed using the existing design code. The findings have led to the development of a new limit-states design concept. This paper highlights the conventional and the new limit-states design philosophies and their implication to both the railway community and the public. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Service condition of railroad corridors around the insulated rail joints

Railroad corridors contain large number of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) that act as safety critical elements in the circuitries of the signaling and broken rail identification systems. IRJs are regarded as sources of excitation for the passage of loaded wheels leading to high impact forces; these forces in turn cause dips, cross levels and twists to the railroad geometry in close proximity to the sections containing the IRJs in addition to the local damages to the railhead of the IRJs. Therefore, a systematic monitoring of the IRJs in railroad is prudent to mitigate potential risk of their sudden failure (e.g., broken tie plates) under the traffic. This paper presents a simple method of periodic recording of images using time-lapse photography and total station surveying measurements to understand the ongoing deterioration of the IRJs and their surroundings. Over a 500 day period, data were collected to examine the trends in narrowing of the joint gap due to plastic deformation the railhead edges and the dips, cross levels and twists caused to the railroad geometry due to the settlement of ties (sleepers) around the IRJs. The results reflect that the average progressive settlement beneath the IRJs is larger than that under the continuously welded rail, which leads to excessive deviation of railroad profile, cross levels and twists.

Anterior vertebral stapling for the fusionless correction of scoliosis

Fusionless scoliosis surgery is an emerging treatment for idiopathic scoliosis as it offers theoretical advantages over current forms of treatment. Currently the treatment options for idiopathic scoliosis are observation, bracing and fusion. While brace treatment is non-invasive, and preserves the growth, motion, and function of the spine, it does not correct deformity and is only modestly successful in preventing curve progression. In adolescents who fail brace treatment, surgical treatment with an instrumented spinal fusion usually results in better deformity correction but is associated with substantially greater risk. Furthermore in younger patients requiring surgical treatment, fusion procedures are known to adversely effect the future growth of the chest and spine. Fusionless treatments have been developed to allow effective surgical treatment of patients with idiopathic scoliosis who are too young for fusion procedures. Anterior vertebral stapling is one such fusionless treatment which aims to modulate the growth of vertebra to allow correction of scoliosis whilst maintaining normal spinal motion The Mater Misericordiae Hospital in Brisbane has begun to use anterior vertebral stapling to treat patients with idiopathic scoliosis who are too young for fusion procedures. Currently the only staple approved for clinical use is manufactured by Medtronic Sofamor Danek (Memphis, TN). This thesis explains the biomechanical and anatomical changes that occur following anterior vertebral staple insertion using in vitro experiments performed on an immature bovine model. Currently there is a paucity of published information about anterior vertebral stapling so it is hoped that this project will provide information that will aid in our understanding of the clinical effects of staple insertion. The aims of this experimental study were threefold. The first phase was designed to determine the changes in the bending stiffness of the spine following staple insertion. The second phase was designed to measure the forces experienced by the staple during spinal movements. The third and final phase of testing was designed to describe the structural changes that occur to a vertebra as a consequence of staple insertion. The first phase of testing utilised a displacement controlled testing robot to compare the change in stiffness of a single spinal motion segment following staple insertion for the three basic spinal motions of flexion-extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation. For the second phase of testing strain gauges were attached to staples and used to measure staple forces during spinal movement. In the third and final phase the staples were removed and a testing specimen underwent micro-computed tomography (CT) scanning to describe the anatomical changes that occur following staple insertion. The displacement controlled testing showed that there was a significant decrease in bending stiffness in flexion, extension, lateral bending away from the staple, and axial rotation away from the staple following staple insertion. The strain gauge measurements showed that the greatest staple forces occurred in flexion and the least in extension. In addition, a reduction in the baseline staple compressive force was seen with successive loading cycles. Micro-CT scanning demonstrated that significant damage to the vertebral body and endplate occurred as a consequence of staple insertion. The clinical implications of this study are significant. Based on the findings of this project it is likely that the clinical effect of the anterior vertebral staple evaluated in this project is a consequence of growth plate damage (also called hemiepiphysiodesis) causing a partial growth arrest of the vertebra rather than simply compression of the growth plate. The surgical creation of a unilateral growth arrest is a well established treatment used in the management of congenital scoliosis but has not previously been considered for use in idiopathic scoliosis.

Axial shortening in reinforced concrete members using vibration characteristics - Part 1 - Theory

Differential axial shortening in vertical members of reinforced concrete high-rise buildings occurs due to shrinkage, creep and elastic shortening, which are time dependent effects of concrete. This has to be quantified in order to make adequate provisions and mitigate its adverse effects. This paper presents a novel procedure for quantifying the axial shortening of vertical members using the variations in vibration characteristics of the structure, in lieu of using gauges which can pose problems in use during and after the construction. This procedure is based on the changes in the modal flexiblity matrix which is expressed as a function of the mode shapes and the reciprocal of the natural frequencies. This paper will present the development of this novel procedure.

Axial shortening in reinforced concrete members using vibration characteristics - part 2 - Application

Controlling differential axial shortening in vertical load bearing concrete elements is a major concern for new generation tall buildings with complex geometries and mechanisms. Quantification of axial shortening using gauges to verify the pre-estimated numerical values used at the design stage is a well established method. This method makes adequate provision to mitigate the adverse effects during the construction. However, this method is becoming increasingly unusable due to its drawbacks. This highlights the need a novel method to quantify the axial shortening using ambient measurements. This paper will first brief introduce the method and then illustrate its application to a high-rise building with two outrigger and belt systems. Moreover, this procedure can be used as a health or performance monitoring tool of the building structure, both during and after construction.

Creation of a validated 3D finite element model of an ovine tibia

Introduction Ovine models are widely used in orthopaedic research. To better understand the impact of orthopaedic procedures computer simulations are necessary. 3D finite element (FE) models of bones allow implant designs to be investigated mechanically, thereby reducing mechanical testing. Hypothesis We present the development and validation of an ovine tibia FE model for use in the analysis of tibia fracture fixation plates. Material & Methods Mechanical testing of the tibia consisted of an offset 3-pt bend test with three repetitions of loading to 350N and return to 50N. Tri-axial stacked strain gauges were applied to the anterior and posterior surfaces of the bone and two rigid bodies – consisting of eight infrared active markers, were attached to the ends of the tibia. Positional measurements were taken with a FARO arm 3D digitiser. The FE model was constructed with both geometry and material properties derived from CT images of the bone. The elasticity-density relationship used for material property determination was validated separately using mechanical testing. This model was then transformed to the same coordinate system as the in vitro mechanical test and loads applied. Results Comparison between the mechanical testing and the FE model showed good correlation in surface strains (difference: anterior 2.3%, posterior 3.2%). Discussion & Conclusion This method of model creation provides a simple method for generating subject specific FE models from CT scans. The use of the CT data set for both the geometry and the material properties ensures a more accurate representation of the specific bone. This is reflected in the similarity of the surface strain results.

An integrated rail track degradation model

There has been a worldwide trend to increase axle loads and train speeds. This means that railway track degradation will be accelerated, and track maintenance costs will be increased significantly. There is a need to investigate the consequences of increasing traffic load. The aim of the research is to develop a model for the analysis of physical degradation of railway tracks in response to changes in traffic parameters, especially increased axle loads and train speeds. This research has developed an integrated track degradation model (ITDM) by integrating several models into a comprehensive framework. Mechanistic relationships for track degradation hav~ ?een used wherever possible in each of the models contained in ITDM. This overcc:mes the deficiency of the traditional statistical track models which rely heavily on historical degradation data, which is generally not available in many railway systems. In addition statistical models lack the flexibility of incorporating future changes in traffic patterns or maintenance practices. The research starts with reviewing railway track related studies both in Australia and overseas to develop a comprehensive understanding of track performance under various traffic conditions. Existing railway related models are then examined for their suitability for track degradation analysis for Australian situations. The ITDM model is subsequently developed by modifying suitable existing models, and developing new models where necessary. The ITDM model contains four interrelated submodels for rails, sleepers, ballast and subgrade, and track modulus. The rail submodel is for rail wear analysis and is developed from a theoretical concept. The sleeper submodel is for timber sleepers damage prediction. The submodel is developed by modifying and extending an existing model developed elsewhere. The submodel has also incorporated an analysis for the likelihood of concrete sleeper cracking. The ballast and subgrade submodel is evolved from a concept developed in the USA. Substantial modifications and improvements have been made. The track modulus submodel is developed from a conceptual method. Corrections for more global track conditions have been made. The integration of these submodels into one comprehensive package has enabled the interaction between individual track components to be taken into account. This is done by calculating wheel load distribution with time and updating track conditions periodically in the process of track degradation simulation. A Windows-based computer program ~ssociated with ITDM has also been developed. The program enables the user to carry out analysis of degradation of individual track components and to investigate the inter relationships between these track components and their deterioration. The successful implementation of this research has provided essential information for prediction of increased maintenance as a consequence of railway trackdegradation. The model, having been presented at various conferences and seminars, has attracted wide interest. It is anticipated that the model will be put into practical use among Australian railways, enabling track maintenance planning to be optimized and potentially saving Australian railway systems millions of dollars in operating costs.

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Embracing diversity : empowering preservice teachers for teaching gifted and talented students

This study investigated preservice teachers’ perceptions for teaching and sustaining gifted and talented students while developing, modifying and implementing activities to cater for the diverse learner. Participants were surveyed at the end of a gifted and talented education program on their perceptions to differentiate the curriculum for meeting the needs of the student (n=22). SPSS data analysis with the five-part Likert scale indicated these preservice teachers agreed or strongly agreed they had developed skills in curriculum planning (91%) with well-designed activities (96%), and lesson preparation skills (96%). They also claimed they were enthusiastic for teaching (91%) and understanding of school practices and policies (96%). However, 46% agreed they had knowledge of syllabus documents with 50% claiming an ability to provide written feedback on student’s learning. Furthermore, nearly two-thirds suggested they had educational language from the syllabus and effective student management strategies. Preservice teachers require more direction on how to cater for diversity and begin creating sustainable societies by building knowledge from direct GAT experiences. Designing diagnostic surveys associated with university coursework can be used to determine further development for specific preservice teacher development in GAT education. Preservice teachers need to create opportunities for students to realise their potential by involving cognitive challenges through a differentiated curriculum. Differentiation requires modification of four primary areas of curriculum development (Maker, 1975) content (what we teach), process (how we teach), product (what we expect the students to do or show) and learning environment (where we teach/our class culture). Ashman and Elkins (2009) and Glasson (2008) emphasise the need for preservice teachers, teachers and other professionals to be able to identify what gifted and talented (GAT) students know and how they learn in relation to effective teaching. Glasson (2008) recommends that educators keep up to date with practices in pedagogy, support, monitoring and profiling of GAT students to create an environment conducive to achieving. Oral feedback is one method to communicate to learners about their progress but has advantages and disadvantages for some students. Oral feedback provides immediate information to the student on progress and performance (Ashman & Elkins, 2009). However, preservice teachers must have clear understandings of key concepts to assist the GAT student. Implementing teaching strategies to engage innovate and extend students is valuable to the preservice teacher in focusing on GAT student learning in the classroom (Killen, 2007). Practical teaching strategies (Harris & Hemming, 2008; Tomlinson et al., 1994) facilitate diverse ways for assisting GAT students to achieve learning outcomes. Such strategies include activities to enhance creativity, co-operative learning and problem-solving activities (Chessman, 2005; NSW Department of Education and Training, 2004; Taylor & Milton, 2006) for GAT students to develop a sense of identity, belonging and self esteem towards becoming an autonomous learner. Preservice teachers need to understand that GAT students learn in a different way and therefore should be assessed differently. Assessment can be through diverse options to demonstrate the student’s competence, demonstrate their understanding of the material in a way that highlights their natural abilities (Glasson, 2008; Mack, 2008). Preservice teachers often are unprepared to assess students understanding but this may be overcome with teacher education training promoting effective communication and collaboration in the classroom, including the provision of a variety of assessment strategies to improve teaching and learning (Callahan et al., 2003; Tomlinson et al., 1994). It is also critical that preservice teachers have enthusiasm for teaching to demonstrate inclusion, involvement and the excitement to communicate to GAT students in the learning process (Baum, 2002). Evaluating and reflecting on teaching practices must be part of a preservice teacher’s repertoire for GAT education. Evaluating teaching practices can assist to further enhance student learning (Mayer, 2008). Evaluation gauges the success or otherwise of specific activities and teaching in general (Mayer, 2008), and ensures that preservice teachers and teachers are well prepared and maintain their commitment to their students and the community. Long and Harris (1999) advocate that reflective practices assist teachers in creating improvements in educational practices. Reflective practices help preservice teachers and teachers to improve their ability to pursue improved learning outcomes and professional growth (Long & Harris, 1999). Context This study is set at a small regional campus of a large university in Queensland. As a way to address departmental policies and the need to prepare preservice teachers for engaging a diverse range of learners (see Queensland College of Teachers, Professional Standards for Teachers, 2006), preservice teachers at this campus completed four elective units within their Bachelor of Education (primary) degree. The electives include: 1. Middle years students and schools 2. Teaching strategies for engaging learners 3. Teaching students with learning difficulties, and 4. Middle-years curriculum, pedagogy and assessment. In the university-based component of this unit, preservice teachers engaged in learning about middle years students and schools, and gained knowledge of government policies pertaining to GAT students. Further explored within in this unit was the importance of: collaboration between teachers, parents/carers and school personnel in supporting middle years GAT students; incorporating challenging learning experiences that promoted higher order thinking and problem solving skills; real world learning experiences for students and; the alignment and design of curriculum, pedagogy and assessment that is relevant to the students development, interests and needs. The participants were third-year Bachelor of Education (primary) preservice teachers who were completing an elective unit as part of the middle years of schooling learning with a focus on GAT students. They were assigned one student from a local school. In the six subsequent ninety minute weekly lessons, the preservice teachers were responsible for designing learning activities that would engage and extend the GAT students. Furthermore, preservice teachers made decisions about suitable pedagogical approaches and designed the assessment task to align with the curriculum and the developmental needs of their middle years GAT student. This research aims to describe preservice teachers’ perceptions of their education for teaching gifted and talented students.

A biomechanical investigation of vertebral staples for fusionless scoliosis correction

Background: Fusionless scoliosis surgery is an early-stage treatment for idiopathic scoliosis which claims potential advantages over current fusion-based surgical procedures. Anterior vertebral stapling using a shape memory alloy staple is one such approach. Despite increasing interest in this technique, little is known about the effects on the spine following insertion, or the mechanism of action of the staple. The purpose of this study was to investigate the biomechanical consequences of staple insertion in the anterior thoracic spine, using in vitro experiments on an immature bovine model. Methods: Individual calf spine thoracic motion segments were tested in flexion, extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Changes in motion segment rotational stiffness following staple insertion were measured on a series of 14 specimens. Strain gauges were attached to three of the staples in the series to measure forces transmitted through the staple during loading. A micro-CT scan of a single specimen was performed after loading to qualitatively examine damage to the vertebral bone caused by the staple. Findings: Small but statistically significant decreases in bending stiffness occurred in flexion,extension, lateral bending away from the staple, and axial rotation away from the staple. Each strain-gauged staple showed a baseline compressive loading following insertion which was seen to gradually decrease during testing. Post-test micro-CT showed substantial bone and growth plate damage near the staple. Interpretation: Based on our findings it is possible that growth modulation following staple insertion is due to tissue damage rather than sustained mechanical compression of the motion segment.