Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.

Particle number and mass emission factors from combustion of wood samples collected from Queensland forest

Knowledge of particle emission characteristics associated with forest fires and in general, biomass burning, is becoming increasingly important due to the impact of these emissions on human health. Of particular importance is developing a better understanding of the size distribution of particles generated from forest combustion under different environmental conditions, as well as provision of emission factors for different particle size ranges. This study was aimed at quantifying particle emission factors from four types of wood found in South East Queensland forests: Spotted Gum (Corymbia citriodora), Red Gum (Eucalypt tereticornis), Blood Gum (Eucalypt intermedia), and Iron bark (Eucalypt decorticans); under controlled laboratory conditions. The experimental set up included a modified commercial stove connected to a dilution system designed for the conditions of the study. Measurements of particle number size distribution and concentration resulting from the burning of woods with a relatively homogenous moisture content (in the range of 15 to 26 %) and for different rates of burning were performed using a TSI Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) in the size range from 10 to 600 nm and a TSI Dust Trak for PM2.5. The results of the study in terms of the relationship between particle number size distribution and different condition of burning for different species show that particle number emission factors and PM2.5 mass emission factors depend on the type of wood and the burning rate; fast burning or slow burning. The average particle number emission factors for fast burning conditions are in the range of 3.3 x 1015 to 5.7 x 1015 particles/kg, and for PM2.5 are in the range of 139 to 217 mg/kg.

Long-term trends in fine particle number concentrations in the urban atmosphere of Brisbane : the relevance of traffic emissions and new particle formation

The measurement of submicrometre (< 1.0 m) and ultrafine particles (diameter < 0.1 m) number concentration have attracted attention since the last decade because the potential health impacts associated with exposure to these particles can be more significant than those due to exposure to larger particles. At present, ultrafine particles are not regularly monitored and they are yet to be incorporated into air quality monitoring programs. As a result, very few studies have analysed their long-term and spatial variations in ultrafine particle concentration, and none have been in Australia. To address this gap in scientific knowledge, the aim of this research was to investigate the long-term trends and seasonal variations in particle number concentrations in Brisbane, Australia. Data collected over a five-year period were analysed using weighted regression models. Monthly mean concentrations in the morning (6:00-10:00) and the afternoon (16:00-19:00) were plotted against time in months, using the monthly variance as the weights. During the five-year period, submicrometre and ultrafine particle concentrations increased in the morning by 105.7% and 81.5% respectively whereas in the afternoon there was no significant trend. The morning concentrations were associated with fresh traffic emissions and the afternoon concentrations with the background. The statistical tests applied to the seasonal models, on the other hand, indicated that there was no seasonal component. The spatial variation in size distribution in a large urban area was investigated using particle number size distribution data collected at nine different locations during different campaigns. The size distributions were represented by the modal structures and cumulative size distributions. Particle number peaked at around 30 nm, except at an isolated site dominated by diesel trucks, where the particle number peaked at around 60 nm. It was found that ultrafine particles contributed to 82%-90% of the total particle number. At the sites dominated by petrol vehicles, nanoparticles (< 50 nm) contributed 60%-70% of the total particle number, and at the site dominated by diesel trucks they contributed 50%. Although the sampling campaigns took place during different seasons and were of varying duration these variations did not have an effect on the particle size distributions. The results suggested that the distributions were rather affected by differences in traffic composition and distance to the road. To investigate the occurrence of nucleation events, that is, secondary particle formation from gaseous precursors, particle size distribution data collected over a 13 month period during 5 different campaigns were analysed. The study area was a complex urban environment influenced by anthropogenic and natural sources. The study introduced a new application of time series differencing for the identification of nucleation events. To evaluate the conditions favourable to nucleation, the meteorological conditions and gaseous concentrations prior to and during nucleation events were recorded. Gaseous concentrations did not exhibit a clear pattern of change in concentration. It was also found that nucleation was associated with sea breeze and long-range transport. The implications of this finding are that whilst vehicles are the most important source of ultrafine particles, sea breeze and aged gaseous emissions play a more important role in secondary particle formation in the study area.

Year 6 students' idiosyncratic notions of unitising, reunitising and regrouping decimal number places

Having flexible notions of the unit (e.g., 26 ones can be thought of as 2.6 tens, 1 ten 16 ones, 260 tenths, etc.) should be a major focus of elementary mathematics education. However, often these powerful notions are relegated to computations where the major emphasis is on "getting the right answer" thus procedural knowledge rather than conceptual knowledge becomes the primary focus. This paper reports on 22 high-performing students' reunitising processes ascertained from individual interviews on tasks requiring unitising, reunitising and regrouping; errors were categorised to depict particular thinking strategies. The results show that, even for high-performing students, regrouping is a cognitively complex task. This paper analyses this complexity and draws inferences for teaching.

Development of a particle number and particle mass vehicle emissions inventory for an urban fleet

Motor vehicles are major emitters of gaseous and particulate pollution in urban areas, and exposure to particulate pollution can have serious health effects, ranging from respiratory and cardiovascular disease to mortality. Motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions span a broad size range from 0.003-10µm, and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, no comprehensive inventories currently exist in the international published literature covering this wide size range. This paper presents the first published comprehensive inventory of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted. The inventory was developed for urban South-East Queensland by combining two techniques from distinctly different disciplines, from aerosol science and transport modelling. A comprehensive set of particle emission factors were combined with traffic modelling, and tailpipe particle emissions were quantified for particle number (ultrafine particles), PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 for light and heavy duty vehicles and buses. A second aim of the paper involved using the data derived in this inventory for scenario analyses, to model the particle emission implications of different proportions of passengers travelling in light duty vehicles and buses in the study region, and to derive an estimate of fleet particle emissions in 2026. It was found that heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the study region were major emitters of particulate matter pollution, and although they contributed only around 6% of total regional vehicle kilometres travelled, they contributed more than 50% of the region’s particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions. With the freight task in the region predicted to double over the next 20 years, this suggests that HDVs need to be a major focus of mitigation efforts. HDVs dominated particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions; and LDV PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Buses contributed approximately 1-2% of regional particle emissions.

Increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles due to interruption of steady traffic flow

We assess the increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles driving at steady speed when forced to stop and accelerate from rest. Considering the example of a signalized pedestrian crossing on a two-way single-lane urban road, we use a complex line source method to calculate the total emissions produced by a specific number and mix of light petrol cars and diesel passenger buses and show that the total emissions during a red light is significantly higher than during the time when the light remains green. Replacing two cars with one bus increased the emissions by over an order of magnitude. Considering these large differences, we conclude that the importance attached to particle number emissions in traffic management policies be reassessed in the future.

Measuring episodic memory: A novel approach with an indefinite number of alternative forms

Both clinical practice and clinical research settings can require successive administrations of a memory test, particularly when following the trajectory of suspected memory decline in older adults. However, relatively few verbal episodic memory tests have alternative forms. We set out to create a broad based memory test to allow for the use of an essentially unlimited number of alternative forms. Four tasks for inclusion in such a test were developed. These tasks varied the requirement for recall as opposed to recognition, the need to form an association between unrelated words, and the need to discriminate the most recent list from earlier lists, all of which proved useful. A total of 115 participants completed the battery of tests and were used to show that the test could differentiate between older and younger adults; a sub-sample of 73 participants completed alternative forms of the tests to determine test-retest reliability and the amount of learning to learn.

Uncertainty budget in the measurement of typical airborne number, surface area and mass particle distributions

The effects of particulate matter on environment and public health have been widely studied in recent years. A number of studies in the medical field have tried to identify the specific effect on human health of particulate exposure, but agreement amongst these studies on the relative importance of the particles’ size and its origin with respect to health effects is still lacking. Nevertheless, air quality standards are moving, as the epidemiological attention, towards greater focus on the smaller particles. Current air quality standards only regulate the mass of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The most reliable method used in measuring Total Suspended Particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 is the gravimetric method since it directly measures PM concentration, guaranteeing an effective traceability to international standards. This technique however, neglects the possibility to correlate short term intra-day variations of atmospheric parameters that can influence ambient particle concentration and size distribution (emission strengths of particle sources, temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed and mixing height) as well as human activity patterns that may also vary over time periods considerably shorter than 24 hours. A continuous method to measure the number size distribution and total number concentration in the range 0.014 – 20 μm is the tandem system constituted by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). In this paper, an uncertainty budget model of the measurement of airborne particle number, surface area and mass size distributions is proposed and applied for several typical aerosol size distributions. The estimation of such an uncertainty budget presents several difficulties due to i) the complexity of the measurement chain, ii) the fact that SMPS and APS can properly guarantee the traceability to the International System of Measurements only in terms of number concentration. In fact, the surface area and mass concentration must be estimated on the basis of separately determined average density and particle morphology. Keywords: SMPS-APS tandem system, gravimetric reference method, uncertainty budget, ultrafine particles.

Development of a particle number and particle mass emissions inventory for an urban fleet : a study in South-East Queensland

Motor vehicles are a major source of gaseous and particulate matter pollution in urban areas, particularly of ultrafine sized particles (diameters < 0.1 µm). Exposure to particulate matter has been found to be associated with serious health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Particle emissions generated by motor vehicles span a very broad size range (from around 0.003-10 µm) and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, there exist scientific challenges in analysing and interpreting the large data sets on motor vehicle emission factors, and no understanding is available of the application of different particle metrics as a basis for air quality regulation. To date a comprehensive inventory covering the broad size range of particles emitted by motor vehicles, and which includes particle number, does not exist anywhere in the world. This thesis covers research related to four important and interrelated aspects pertaining to particulate matter generated by motor vehicle fleets. These include the derivation of suitable particle emission factors for use in transport modelling and health impact assessments; quantification of motor vehicle particle emission inventories; investigation of the particle characteristic modality within particle size distributions as a potential for developing air quality regulation; and review and synthesis of current knowledge on ultrafine particles as it relates to motor vehicles; and the application of these aspects to the quantification, control and management of motor vehicle particle emissions. In order to quantify emissions in terms of a comprehensive inventory, which covers the full size range of particles emitted by motor vehicle fleets, it was necessary to derive a suitable set of particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM1 (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters < 1 µm, < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm respectively). The very large data set of emission factors analysed in this study were sourced from measurement studies conducted in developed countries, and hence the derived set of emission factors are suitable for preparing inventories in other urban regions of the developed world. These emission factors are particularly useful for regions with a lack of measurement data to derive emission factors, or where experimental data are available but are of insufficient scope. The comprehensive particle emissions inventory presented in this thesis is the first published inventory of tailpipe particle emissions prepared for a motor vehicle fleet, and included the quantification of particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted by vehicles, based on measurement data. The inventory quantified particle emissions measured in terms of particle number and different particle mass size fractions. It was developed for the urban South-East Queensland fleet in Australia, and included testing the particle emission implications of future scenarios for different passenger and freight travel demand. The thesis also presents evidence of the usefulness of examining modality within particle size distributions as a basis for developing air quality regulations; and finds evidence to support the relevance of introducing a new PM1 mass ambient air quality standard for the majority of environments worldwide. The study found that a combination of PM1 and PM10 standards are likely to be a more discerning and suitable set of ambient air quality standards for controlling particles emitted from combustion and mechanically-generated sources, such as motor vehicles, than the current mass standards of PM2.5 and PM10. The study also reviewed and synthesized existing knowledge on ultrafine particles, with a specific focus on those originating from motor vehicles. It found that motor vehicles are significant contributors to both air pollution and ultrafine particles in urban areas, and that a standardized measurement procedure is not currently available for ultrafine particles. The review found discrepancies exist between outcomes of instrumentation used to measure ultrafine particles; that few data is available on ultrafine particle chemistry and composition, long term monitoring; characterization of their spatial and temporal distribution in urban areas; and that no inventories for particle number are available for motor vehicle fleets. This knowledge is critical for epidemiological studies and exposure-response assessment. Conclusions from this review included the recommendation that ultrafine particles in populated urban areas be considered a likely target for future air quality regulation based on particle number, due to their potential impacts on the environment. The research in this PhD thesis successfully integrated the elements needed to quantify and manage motor vehicle fleet emissions, and its novelty relates to the combining of expertise from two distinctly separate disciplines - from aerosol science and transport modelling. The new knowledge and concepts developed in this PhD research provide never before available data and methods which can be used to develop comprehensive, size-resolved inventories of motor vehicle particle emissions, and air quality regulations to control particle emissions to protect the health and well-being of current and future generations.

Strategies for comparing decimal numbers with the same whole-number part

The strategies employed by 130 Grade 5 Brisbane students in comparing decimal numbers which have the same whole-number part were compared with those identified in similar studies conducted in the USA, France and Israel. Three new strategies were identified. Similar to USA results, the most common comparison errors stemmed from the incorrect whole-number strategy in which length is confused with size. The findings of this present study tend to support Resnick et al.’s (1989) hypothesis that the introduction of decimal-fraction recording before common-fraction recording seems to promote better comparison of decimal numbers.

Construction of multiplicative abstract schema for decimal-number numeration

This paper reports on an intervention study planned to help Year 6 students construct the multiplicative structure underlying decimal-number numeration. Three types of intervention were designed from a numeration model developed from a large study of 173 Year 6 students’ decimal-number knowledge. The study found that students could acquire multiplicative structure as an abstract schema if instruction took account of prior knowledge as informed by the model.