Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland Annual Report 2008

Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland is an internationally recognised research group that is developing into an international leader in research and education. It provides a stimulus for research, education and clinical application within the international orthopaedic and trauma communities. Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland develops and promotes the innovative use of engineering and technology, in collaboration with surgeons, to provide new techniques, materials, procedures and medical devices. Its integration with clinical practice and strong links with hospitals ensure that the research will be translated into practical outcomes for patients. The group undertakes clinical practice in orthopaedics and trauma and applies core engineering, modelling and clinical skills to challenges in medicine. The research is built on a strong foundation of knowledge in biomedical engineering and incorporates expertise in cell biology, mathematical modelling, human anatomy and physiology and clinical medicine in orthopaedics and trauma. New knowledge is being developed and applied to the full range of orthopaedic diseases and injuries, such as knee and hip replacements, fractures and spinal deformities.

Modulation of dermal microvascular endithelial cell responses to growth factors and haemostatic factors in the presence of vitronectin

In order to effect permanent closure in burns patients suffering from full thickness wounds, replacing their skin via split thickness autografting, is essential. Dermal substitutes in conjunction with widely meshed split thickness autografts (+/- cultured keratinocytes) reduce scarring at the donor and recipient sites of burns patients by reducing demand for autologous skin (both surface area and thickness), without compromising dermal delivery at the wound face. Tissue engineered products such as Integra consist of a dermal template which is rapidly remodelled to form a neodermis, at which time the temporary silicone outer layer is removed and replaced with autologous split thickness skin. Whilst provision of a thick tissue engineered dermis at full thickness burn sites reduces scarring, it is hampered by delays in vascularisation which results in clinical failure. The ultimate success of any skin graft product is dependent upon a number of basic factors including adherence, haemostasis and in the case of viable tissue grafts, success is ultimately dependent upon restoration of a normal blood supply, and hence this study. Ultimately, the goal of this research is to improve the therapeutic properties of tissue replacements, through impregnation with growth factors aimed at stimulating migration and proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells into the donor tissue post grafting. For the purpose of my masters, the aim was to evaluate the responsiveness of a dermal microvascular endothelial cell line to growth factors and haemostatic factors, in the presence of the glycoprotein vitronectin. Vitronectin formed the backbone for my hypothesis and research due to its association with both epithelial and, more specifically, endothelial migration and proliferation. Early work using a platform technology referred to as VitroGro (Tissue Therapies Ltd), which is comprised of vitronectin bound BP5/IGF-1, aided keratinocyte proliferation. I hypothesised that this result would translate to another epithelium - endothelium. VitroGro had no effect on endothelial proliferation or migration. Vitronectin increases the presence of Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF) and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) receptors, enhancing cell responsiveness to their respective ligands. So, although Human Microvascular Endothelial Cell line 1 (HMEC-1) VEGF receptor expression is generally low, it was hypothesised that exposure to vitronectin would up-regulate this receptor. HMEC-1 migration, but not proliferation, was enhanced by vitronectin bound VEGF, as well as vitronectin bound Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), both of which could be used to stimulate microvascular endothelial cell migration for the purpose of transplantation. In addition to vitronectin's synergy with various growth factors, it has also been shown to play a role in haemostasis. Vitronectin binds thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT) to form a trimeric complex that takes on many of the attributes of vitronectin, such as heparin affinity, which results in its adherence to endothelium via heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSP), followed by unaltered transcytosis through the endothelium, and ultimately its removal from the circulation. This has been documented as a mechanism designed to remove thrombin from the circulation. Equally, it could be argued that it is a mechanism for delivering vitronectin to the matrix. My results show that matrix-bound vitronectin dramatically alters the effect that conformationally altered antithrombin three (cATIII) has on proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells. cATIII stimulates HMEC-1 proliferation in the presence of matrix-bound vitronectin, as opposed to inhibiting proliferation in its absence. Binding vitronectin to tissues and organs prior to transplant, in the presence of cATIII, will have a profound effect on microvascular infiltration of the graft, by preventing occlusion of existing vessels whilst stimulating migration and proliferation of endothelium within the tissue.

Repair and regeneration of osteochondral defects in the articular joints

People suffering from pain due to osteoarthritic or rheumatoidal changes in the joints are still waiting for a better treatment. Although some studies have achieved success in repairing small cartilage defects, there is no widely accepted method for complete repair of osteochondral defects. Also joint replacements have not yet succeeded in replacing of natural cartilage without complications. Therefore, there is room for a new medical approach, which outperforms currently used methods. The aim of this study is to show potential of using a tissue engineering approach for regeneration of osteochondral defects. The critical review of currently used methods for treatment of osteochondral defects is also provided. In this study, two kinds of hybrid scaffolds developed in Hutmacher's group have been analysed. The first biphasic scaffold consists of fibrin and PCL. The fibrin serves as a cartilage phase while the porous PCL scaffold acts as the subchondral phase. The second system comprises of PCL and PCL-TCP. The scaffolds were fabricated via fused deposition modeling which is a rapid prototyping system. Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal cells were isolated from New Zealand White rabbits, cultured in vitro and seeded into the scaffolds. Bone regenerations of the subchondral phases were quantified via micro CT analysis and the results demonstrated the potential of the porous PCL and PCL-TCP scaffolds in promoting bone healing. Fibrin was found to be lacking in this aspect as it degrades rapidly. On the other hand, the porous PCL scaffold degrades slowly hence it provides an effective mechanical support. This study shows that in the field of cartilage repair or replacement, tissue engineering may have big impact in the future. In vivo bone and cartilage engineering via combining a novel composite, biphasic scaffold technology with a MSC has been shown a high potential in the knee defect regeneration in the animal models. However, the clinical application of tissue engineering requires the future research work due to several problems, such as scaffold design, cellular delivery and implantation strategies.

Femoral impaction grafting in revision total hip arthroplasty

Between 1987 and 1999, 540 revision total hip replacements in 487 patients were performed at our institution with the femoral impaction grafting technique with a cemented femoral stem. All patients were prospectively followed for 2-15years post-operatively with no loss to follow-up. 494 hips remained successfully in situ at an average 6.7years. The ten year survival rate was 98.0% (95% CI 96.2 to 99.8) with aseptic loosening as the endpoint and 84.2% (95% CI 78.5 to 89.9) for re-operation for any reason. Indication for surgery and the use of any kind of reinforcement significantly influenced outcome (p<0.001). This is the largest known series of revision THR with femoral impaction grafting and the results support continued use of this technique.

In vitro physical stimulation of tissue-engineered and native cartilage

Because of the limited availability of donor cartilage for resurfacing defects in articular surfaces, there is tremendous interest in the in vitro bioengineering of cartilage replacements for clinical applications. However, attaining mechanical properties in engineered cartilaginous constructs that approach those of native cartilage has not been previously achieved when constructs are cultured under free-swelling conditions. One approach toward stimulating the development of constructs that are mechanically more robust is to expose them to physical environments that are similar, in certain ways, to those encountered by native cartilage. This is a strategy motivated by observations in numerous short-term experiments that certain mechanical signals are potent stimulators of cartilage metabolism. On the other hand, excess mechanical loading can have a deleterious effect on cartilage. Culture conditions that include a physical stimulation component are made possible by the use of specialized bioreactors. This chapter addresses some of the issues involved in using bioreactors as integral components of cartilage tissue engineering and in studying the physical regulation of cartilage. We first consider the generation of cartilaginous constructs in vitro. Next we describe the rationale and design of bioreactors that can impart either mechanical deformation or fluid-induced mechanical signals.

Complications related to therapeutic anticoagulation in total hip arthroplasty

Bleeding related wound complications cause significant morbidity in lower limb arthroplasty surgery. Patients who require therapeutic anticoagulation in the peri operative period are potentially at higher risk of these complications. This is a retrospective case control study reviewing all primary total hip replacements performed in a single center over a five year period and comparing outcomes of the patients on warfarin with a double-matched control group of patients not on warfarin. The warfarin group had significantly higher risk of deep joint infection (9% vs 2.2%), haematoma/ wound ooze (28% vs 4%) and superficial infection (13.5% vs 2.2%). Managing the total hip arthroplasty patient with therapeutic anticoagulation is a balance between the risk of thromboembolic disease and bleeding related complications. Improved understanding of this risk will better allow the patient to make an informed decision regarding their elective arthroplasty surgery.

Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland Annual Report 2011

Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland, a Centre for Research and Education in Musculoskeletal Disorders, is an internationally recognised research group that is developing into an international leader in research and education. It provides a stimulus for research, education and clinical application within the international orthopaedic and trauma communities. Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland develops and promotes the innovative use of engineering and technology, in collaboration with surgeons, to provide new techniques, materials, procedures and medical devices. Its integration with clinical practice and strong links with hospitals ensure that the research will be translated into practical outcomes for patients. The group undertakes clinical practice in orthopaedics and trauma and applies core engineering skills to challenges in medicine. The research is built on a strong foundation of knowledge in biomedical engineering, and incorporates expertise in cell biology, mathematical modelling, human anatomy and physiology and clinical medicine in orthopaedics and trauma. New knowledge is being developed and applied to the full range of orthopaedic diseases and injuries, such as knee and hip replacements, fractures and spinal deformities.

Open and networked initiatives and the digital transformation of academic publishing in China

Many aspects of China's academic publishing system differ from the systems found in liberal market based economies of the United States, Western Europe and Australia. A high level of government intervention in both the publishing industry and academia and the challenges associated with attempting to make a transition from a centrally controlled towards a more market based publishing industry are two notable differences; however, as in other countries, academic communities and publishers are being transformed by digital technologies. This research explores the complex yet dynamic digital transformation of academic publishing in China, with a specific focus of the open and networked initiatives inspired by Web 2.0 and social media. The thesis draws on two case studies: Science Paper Online, a government-operated online preprint platform and open access mandate; and New Science, a social reference management website operated by a group of young PhD students. Its analysis of the innovations, business models, operating strategies, influences, and difficulties faced by these two initiatives highlights important characteristics and trends in digital publishing experiments in China. The central argument of this thesis is that the open and collaborative possibilities of Web 2.0 inspired initiatives are emerging outside the established journal and monograph publishing system in China, introducing innovative and somewhat disruptive approaches to the certification, communication and commercial exploitation of knowledge. Moreover, emerging publishing models are enabling and encouraging a new system of practising and communicating science in China, putting into practice some elements of the Open Science ethos. There is evidence of both disruptive change to old publishing structures and the adaptive modification of emergent replacements in the Chinese practice. As such, the transformation from traditional to digital and interactive modes of publishing, involves both competition and convergence between new and old publishers, as well as dynamics of co-evolution involving new technologies, business models, social norms, and government reform agendas. One key concern driving this work is whether there are new opportunities and new models for academic publishing in the Web 2.0 age and social media environment, which might allow the basic functions of communication and certification to be achieved more effectively. This thesis enriches existing knowledge of open and networked transformations of scholarly publishing by adding a Chinese story. Although the development of open and networked publishing platforms in China remains in its infancy, the lessons provided by this research are relevant to practitioners and stakeholders interested in understanding the transformative dynamics of networked technologies for publishing and advocating open access in practice, not only in China, but also internationally.

Orthopaedics and trauma Queensland annual report 2012

Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland, the Centre for Research and Education in Musculoskeletal Disorders, is an internationally recognised research group that continues to develop its reputation as an international leader in research and education. It provides a stimulus for research, education and clinical application within the international orthopaedic and trauma communities. Orthopaedics and Trauma Queensland develops and promotes the innovative use of engineering and technology, in collaboration with surgeons, to provide new techniques, materials, procedures and medical devices. Its integration with clinical practice and strong links with hospitals ensure that the research will be translated into practical outcomes for patients. The group undertakes clinical practice in orthopaedics and trauma and applies core engineering skills to challenges in medicine. The research is built on a strong foundation of knowledge in biomedical engineering, and incorporates expertise in cell biology, mathematical modelling, human anatomy and physiology and clinical medicine in orthopaedics and trauma. New knowledge is being developed and applied to the full range of orthopaedic diseases and injuries, such as knee and hip replacements, fractures and spinal deformities.

The interface of acute and aged care : the role of the nurse in a provincial area

Objective This study was to investigate issues that arose from pre-admission to post-discharge, for people in Toowoomba, Queensland over the age of 65 admitted to an acute facility. This paper concentrates on a significant concern that emerged from the large amount of data collected during this project, that is,the role of the nurse in the continuum of health care involving elderly people. Method The study involved a multi-site, multi-agency and multi-method (qualitative and quantitative) approach. Data was collected from regional service providers, the Department of Health and Aged Care (DHAC), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Home and Community Care (HACC), the Aged Care Assessment Team (ACAT), elderly people who had been discharged from regional hospitals and their carers, residents of regional aged care facilities, area health professionals and elderly regional hospital inpatients. Results The data indicated that nurses in this provincial area currently play a limited role in preadmission planning, being mostly concerned with elective surgery, especially joint replacements. While nurses deliver the majority of care during hospitalisation, they do not appear to be cognizant of the needs of the elderly regarding post-acute discharge. Conclusion The recent introduction of the model of nurse case management in the acute sector appears to be a positive development that will streamline and optimise the health care of the elderly across the continuum in the Toowoomba area. The paper recommends some strategies, such as discharge liaison nurses based in Emergency Departments and the expansion of the nurse case management role, which would optimise care for the elderly person at the interface of care.