Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Sustainable housing development through integrated strata utility and transport infrastructure

A comprehensive study was conducted on potential systems of integrated building utilities and transport power solutions that can simultaneously contain rising electricity, hot water and personal transport costs for apartment residents. The research developed the Commuter Energy and Building Utilities System (CEBUS) and quantified the economic, social and environmental benefits of incorporating such a system in future apartment developments. A decision support tool was produced to assist the exploration of the CEBUS design variants. A set of implementation guidelines for CEBUS was also developed for the property development industry.

Micropolar flow in a porous channel with high mass transfer

Two dimensional flow of a micropolar fluid in a porous channel is investigated. The flow is driven by suction or injection at the channel walls, and the micropolar model due to Eringen is used to describe the working fluid. An extension of Berman's similarity transform is used to reduce the governing equations to a set of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. The latter are solved for large mass transfer via a perturbation analysis where the inverse of the cross-flow Reynolds number is used as the perturbing parameter. Complementary numerical solutions for strong injection are also obtained using a quasilinearisation scheme, and good agreement is observed between the solutions obtained from the perturbation analysis and the computations.

Third-sector discourses and the future of (un)employment : skilled labor, new technologies, and the meaning of work

In this paper we analyse a 600,000 word corpus comprised of policy statements produced within supranational, national, state and local legislatures about the nature and causes of(un)employment. We identify significant rhetorical and discursive features deployed by third sector (un)employment policy authors that function to extend their legislative grasp to encompass the most intimate aspects of human association.

Modelling ideal turbulent vortex breakdown

In this computational study we investigate the role of turbulence in ideal axisymmetric vortex breakdown. A pipe geometry with a slight constriction near the inlet is used to stabilise the location of the breakdown within the computed domain. Eddy-viscosity and differential Reynolds stress models are used to model the turbulence. Changes in upstream turbulence levels, flow Reynolds and Swirl numbers are considered. The different computed solutions are monitored for indications of different breakdown flow configurations. Trends in vortex breakdown due to turbulent flow conditions are identified and discussed.

Decentred optical axes and aberrations along principal visual field meridians

Suggestions that peripheral imagery may affect the development of refractive error have led to interest in the variation in refraction and aberration across the visual field. It is shown that, if the optical system of the eye is rotationally symmetric about an optical axis which does not coincide with the visual axis, measurements of refraction and aberration made along the horizontal and vertical meridians of the visual field will show asymmetry about the visual axis. The departures from symmetry are modelled for second-order aberrations, refractive components and third-order coma. These theoretical results are compared with practical measurements from the literature. The experimental data support the concept that departures from symmetry about the visual axis in the measurements of crossed-cylinder astigmatism J45 and J180 are largely explicable in terms of a decentred optical axis. Measurements of the mean sphere M suggest, however, that the retinal curvature must differ in the horizontal and vertical meridians.

Blur limits for defocus, astigmatism and trefoil

We investigated the limits at which blur due to defocus, crossed-cylinder astigmatism, and trefoil became noticeable, troublesome or objectionable. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35 and 0.6 logMAR) were presented on white backgrounds. Subjects were cyclopleged and had effectively 5 mm pupils. Blur was induced with a deformable, adaptive-optics mirror operating under open-loop conditions. Mean defocus blur limits of six subjects with uncorrected intrinsic higher-order ocular aberrations ranged from 0.18 ± 0.08 D (noticeable blur criterion, 0.1 logMAR) to 1.01 ± 0.27 D (objectionable blur criterion, 0.6 logMAR. Crossed-cylinder astigmatic blur limits were approximately 90% of those for defocus, but with considerable meridional influences. In two of the subjects, the intrinsic aberrations of the eye were subsequently corrected before the defocus and astigmatic blur were added. This resulted in only minor reductions in their blur limits. When assessed with trefoil blur and corrected intrinsic ocular aberrations, the ratio of objectionable to noticeable blur limits in these two subjects was much higher for trefoil (3.5) than for defocus (2.5) and astigmatism (2.2).

Building an effective trade practices commission : the role of Professor Robert Baxt AO

Bob Baxt, the third Chairman of the Trade Practices Commission, served for a single three year term from 1988 to 1991. He followed Bob McComas, who had deliberately adopted a non-litigious approach to preserving the competitive process, believing that he understood business as an insider and that much of what it did was not anti-competitive, when correctly viewed. Baxt was far more pro-active in his approach, and more closely aligned with that of the first Chairman, Ron Bannerman. Baxt sought to push the frontiers of investigation and precedent, and perhaps, more significantly, sought to influence his Ministers, the government, public servants and public opinion about the need to expand the coverage of the Trade Practices Act, increase penalties and properly resource the Commission so that it could perform its assigned roles. This article examines Baxt’s early and on-going role in teaching Australian students and professionals through his interdisciplinary Trade Practices Workshops, the political context of Baxt’s tenure, including his relations with the Attorney-General ,Michael Duffy, and his skilful handling of the Queensland Wire case.

QUT Medical Engineering Research Facility (MERF) annual report 2009

DIRECTOR’S OVERVIEW by Professor Mark Pearcy This report for 2009 is the first full year report for MERF. The development of our activities in 2009 has been remarkable and is testament to the commitment of the staff to the vision of MERF as a premier training and research facility. From the beginnings in 2003, when a need was identified for the provision of specialist research and training facilities to enable close collaboration between researchers and clinicians, to the realisation of the vision in 2009 has been an amazing journey. However, we have learnt that there is much more that can be achieved and the emphasis will be on working with the university, government and external partners to realise the full potential of MERF by further development of the Facility. In 2009 we conducted 28 workshops in the Anatomical and Surgical Skills Laboratory providing training for surgeons in the latest techniques. This was an excellent achievement for the first full year as our reputation for delivering first class facilities and support grows. The highlight, perhaps, was a course run via our video link by a surgeon in the USA directing the participants in MERF. In addition, we have continued to run a small number of workshops in the operating theatre and this promises to be an avenue that will be of growing interest. Final approval was granted for the QUT Body Bequest Program late in 2009 following the granting of an Anatomical Accepting Licence. This will enable us to expand our capabilities by provide better material for the workshops. The QUT Body Bequest Program will be launched early in 2010. The Biological Research Facility (BRF) conducted over 270 procedures in 2009. This is a wonderful achievement considering less then 40 were performed in 2008. The staff of the BRF worked very hard to improve the state of the old animal house and this resulted in approval for expanded use by the ethics committees of both QUT and the University of Queensland. An external agency conducted an Occupational Health and Safety Audit of MERF in 2009. While there were a number of small issues that require attention, the auditor congratulated the staff of MERF on achieving a good result, particularly for such an early stage in the development of MERF. The journey from commissioning of MERF in 2008 to the full implementation of its activities in 2009 has demonstrated the potential of this facility and 2010 will be an exciting year as its activities are recognised and further expanded building development is pursued.

The effect of graded levels of exercise on energy intake and balance in free-living men, consuming their normal diet

Objective: To assess the effect of graded increases in exercised-induced energy expenditure (EE) on appetite, energy intake (EI), total daily EE and body weight in men living in their normal environment and consuming their usual diets. Design: Within-subject, repeated measures design. Six men (mean (s.d.) age 31.0 (5.0) y; weight 75.1 (15.96) kg; height 1.79 (0.10) m; body mass index (BMI) 23.3(2.4) kg/m2), were each studied three times during a 9 day protocol, corresponding to prescriptions of no exercise, (control) (Nex; 0 MJ/day), medium exercise level (Mex; ~1.6 MJ/day) and high exercise level (Hex; ~3.2 MJ/day). On days 1-2 subjects were given a medium fat (MF) maintenance diet (1.6 ´ resting metabolic rate (RMR)). Measurements: On days 3-9 subjects self-recorded dietary intake using a food diary and self-weighed intake. EE was assessed by continual heart rate monitoring, using the modified FLEX method. Subjects' HR (heart rate) was individually calibrated against submaximal VO2 during incremental exercise tests at the beginning and end of each 9 day study period. Respiratory exchange was measured by indirect calorimetry. Subjects completed hourly hunger ratings during waking hours to record subjective sensations of hunger and appetite. Body weight was measured daily. Results: EE amounted to 11.7, 12.9 and 16.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=48.26; P<0.001 (s.e.d=0.55)) on the Nex, Mex and Hex treatments, respectively. The corresponding values for EI were 11.6, 11.8 and 11.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=0.10; P=0.910 (s.e.d.=0.10)), respectively. There were no treatment effects on hunger, appetite or body weight, but there was evidence of weight loss on the Hex treatment. Conclusion: Increasing EE did not lead to compensation of EI over 7 days. However, total daily EE tended to decrease over time on the two exercise treatments. Lean men appear able to tolerate a considerable negative energy balance, induced by exercise, over 7 days without invoking compensatory increases in EI.

Effects of Sweetness and Energy in Drinks on Food Intake Following Exercise

Exercise is known to cause physiological changes that could affect the impact of nutrients on appetite control. This study was designed to assess the effect of drinks containing either sucrose or high-intensity sweeteners on food intake following exercise. Using a repeated-measures design, three drink conditions were employed: plain water (W), a low-energy drink sweetened with artificial sweeteners aspartame and acesulfame-K (L), and a high-energy, sucrose-sweetened drink (H). Following a period of challenging exercise (70% VO2 max for 50 min), subjects consumed freely from a particular drink before being offered a test meal at which energy and nutrient intakes were measured. The degree of pleasantness (palatability) of the drinks was also measured before and after exercise. At the test meal, energy intake following the artificially sweetened (L) drink was significantly greater than after water and the sucrose (H) drinks (p < 0.05). Compared with the artificially sweetened (L) drink, the high-energy (H) drink suppressed intake by approximately the energy contained in the drink itself. However, there was no difference between the water (W) and the sucrose (H) drink on test meal energy intake. When the net effects were compared (i.e., drink + test meal energy intake), total energy intake was significantly lower after the water (W) drink compared with the two sweet (L and H) drinks. The exercise period brought about changes in the perceived pleasantness of the water, but had no effect on either of the sweet drinks. The remarkably precise energy compensation demonstrated after the higher energy sucrose drink suggests that exercise may prime the system to respond sensitively to nutritional manipulations. The results may also have implications for the effect on short-term appetite control of different types of drinks used to quench thirst during and after exercise.

Low-cost hardware speech enhancement for improved speech recognition in automotive environments

Voice recognition is one of the key enablers to reduce driver distraction as in-vehicle systems become more and more complex. With the integration of voice recognition in vehicles, safety and usability are improved as the driver’s eyes and hands are not required to operate system controls. Whilst speaker independent voice recognition is well developed, performance in high noise environments (e.g. vehicles) is still limited. La Trobe University and Queensland University of Technology have developed a low-cost hardware-based speech enhancement system for automotive environments based on spectral subtraction and delay–sum beamforming techniques. The enhancement algorithms have been optimised using authentic Australian English collected under typical driving conditions. Performance tests conducted using speech data collected under variety of vehicle noise conditions demonstrate a word recognition rate improvement in the order of 10% or more under the noisiest conditions. Currently developed to a proof of concept stage there is potential for even greater performance improvement.

Thomas Young's contribution to visual optics : the Bakerian lecture "On the mechanism of the eye"

Thomas Young (1773-1829) carried out major pioneering work in many different subjects. In 1800 he gave the Bakerian Lecture of the Royal Society on the topic of the “mechanism of the eye”: this was published in the following year (Young, 1801). Young used his own design of optometer to measure refraction and accommodation, and discovered his own astigmatism. He considered the different possible origins of accommodation and confirmed that it was due to change in shape of the lens rather than to change in shape of the cornea or an increase in axial length. However, the paper also dealt with many other aspects of visual and ophthalmic optics, such as biometric parameters, peripheral refraction, longitudinal chromatic aberration, depth-of-focus and instrument myopia. These aspects of the paper have previously received little attention. We now give detailed consideration to these and other less-familiar features of Young’s work and conclude that his studies remain relevant to many of the topics which currently engage visual scientists.

Professor Emeritus Leo G Carney Optometry's quiet achiever

Perhaps more than any other sub-discipline in optometry and vision science, the academic field of cornea and contact lenses is populated by an assortment of extroverted and flamboyant characters who constantly travel the world, entertaining clinicians with dazzling audiovisual presentations, informing them about the latest advances in the field and generally promoting their own scientific agendas. The antithesis of this is Leo Carney (Figure 1), a highly accomplished researcher, teacher, mentor and administrator, who has quietly and with great dignity carved out an impressive career in academic optometry. Indeed, Leo Carney is optometry's quintessential ‘quiet achiever’