Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Listening to nature : techniques for large-scale monitoring of ecosystems using acoustics

Climate change and human activity are subjecting the environment to unprecedented rates of change. Monitoring these changes is an immense task that demands new levels of automated monitoring and analysis. We propose the use of acoustics as a proxy for the time consuming auditing of fauna, especially for determining the presence/absence of species. Acoustic monitoring is deceptively simple; seemingly all that is required is a sound recorder. However there are many major challenges if acoustics are to be used for large scale monitoring of ecosystems. Key issues are scalability and automation. This paper discusses our approach to this important research problem. Our work is being undertaken in collaboration with ecologists interested both in identifying particular species and in general ecosystem health.

Prevalence and occurrence of zoonotic bacterial pathogens in surface waters determined by quantitative PCR

The prevalence and concentrations of Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella spp. and enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) were investigated in surface waters in Brisbane, Australia using quantitative PCR (qPCR) based methodologies. Water samples were collected from Brisbane City Botanic Gardens (CBG) Pond, and two urban tidal creeks (i.e., Oxley Creek and Blunder Creek). Of the 32 water samples collected, 8 (25%), 1 (3%), 9 (28%), 14 (44%), and 15 (47%) were positive for C. jejuni mapA, Salmonella invA, EHEC O157 LPS, EHEC VT1, and EHEC VT2 genes, respectively. The presence/absence of the potential pathogens did not correlate with either E. coli or enterococci concentrations as determined by binary logistic regression. In conclusion, the high prevalence, and concentrations of potential zoonotic pathogens along with the concentrations of one or more fecal indicators in surface water samples indicate a poor level of microbial quality of surface water, and could represent a significant health risk to users. The results from the current study would provide valuable information to the water quality managers in terms of minimizing the risk from pathogens in surface waters.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models. ----- ----- Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Fecal indicators and bacterial pathogens in bottled water from Dhaka, Bangladesh

Forty-six bottled water samples representing 16 brands from Dhaka, Bangladesh were tested for the numbers of total coliforms, fecal indicator bacteria (i.e., thermotolerant Escherichia coli and Enterococcus spp.) and potential bacterial pathogens (i.e., Aeromonas hydrophil, Pseudomonas aeruginos, Salmonella spp., and Shigella spp.). Among the 16 brands tested, 14 (86%), ten (63%) and seven (44%) were positive for total coliforms, E. coil and Enterococcus spp., respectively. Additionally, a further nine (56%), eight (50%), six (37%), and four (25%) brands were PCR positive for A. hydrophila lip, P. aeruginosa ETA, Salmonella spp. invA, and Shigella spp. ipaH genes, respectively. The numbers of bacterial pathogens in bottled water samples ranged from 28 ± 12 to 600 ± 45 (A. hydrophila lip gene), 180 ± 40 to 900 ± 200 (Salmonella spp. invA gene), 180 ± 40 to 1,300 ± 400 (P. aeruginosa ETA gene) genomic units per L of water. Shigella spp. ipaH gene was not quantifiable. Discrepancies were observed in terms of the occurrence of fecal indicators and bacterial pathogens. No correlations were observed between fecal indicators numbers and presence/absence of A. hydrophila lip (p = 0.245), Salmonella spp. invA (p = 0.433), Shigella spp. ipaH gene (p = 0.078), and P. aeruginosa ETA (p = 0.059) genes. Our results suggest that microbiological quality of bottled waters sold in Dhaka, Bangladesh is highly variable. To protect public health, stringent quality control is recommended for the bottled water industry in Bangladesh. Key words: bottled water, fecal indicator bacteria, quantitative PCR, bacterial pathogens, public health risk.

Taxonomic resolution and quantification of freshwater macroinvertebrate samples from an Australian dryland river : The benefits and costs of using species abundance data

In studies using macroinvertebrates as indicators for monitoring rivers and streams, species level identifications in comparison with lower resolution identifications can have greater information content and result in more reliable site classifications and better capacity to discriminate between sites, yet many such programmes identify specimens to the resolution of family rather than species. This is often because it is cheaper to obtain family level data than species level data. Choice of appropriate taxonomic resolution is a compromise between the cost of obtaining data at high taxonomic resolutions and the loss of information at lower resolutions. Optimum taxonomic resolution should be determined by the information required to address programme objectives. Costs saved in identifying macroinvertebrates to family level may not be justified if family level data can not give the answers required and expending the extra cost to obtain species level data may not be warranted if cheaper family level data retains sufficient information to meet objectives. We investigated the influence of taxonomic resolution and sample quantification (abundance vs. presence/absence) on the representation of aquatic macroinvertebrate species assemblage patterns and species richness estimates. The study was conducted in a physically harsh dryland river system (Condamine-Balonne River system, located in south-western Queensland, Australia), characterised by low macroinvertebrate diversity. Our 29 study sites covered a wide geographic range and a diversity of lotic conditions and this was reflected by differences between sites in macroinvertebrate assemblage composition and richness. The usefulness of expending the extra cost necessary to identify macroinvertebrates to species was quantified via the benefits this higher resolution data offered in its capacity to discriminate between sites and give accurate estimates of site species richness. We found that very little information (<6%) was lost by identifying taxa to family (or genus), as opposed to species, and that quantifying the abundance of taxa provided greater resolution for pattern interpretation than simply noting their presence/absence. Species richness was very well represented by genus, family and order richness, so that each of these could be used as surrogates of species richness if, for example, surveying to identify diversity hot-spots. It is suggested that sharing of common ecological responses among species within higher taxonomic units is the most plausible mechanism for the results. Based on a cost/benefit analysis, family level abundance data is recommended as the best resolution for resolving patterns in macroinvertebrate assemblages in this system. The relevance of these findings are discussed in the context of other low diversity, harsh, dryland river systems.

Weighted rank regression for clustered data analysis

We consider ranked-based regression models for clustered data analysis. A weighted Wilcoxon rank method is proposed to take account of within-cluster correlations and varying cluster sizes. The asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is established. A method to estimate covariance of the estimators is also given, which can bypass estimation of the density function. Simulation studies are carried out to compare different estimators for a number of scenarios on the correlation structure, presence/absence of outliers and different correlation values. The proposed methods appear to perform well, in particular, the one incorporating the correlation in the weighting achieves the highest efficiency and robustness against misspecification of correlation structure and outliers. A real example is provided for illustration.

How Australia’s Indigenous people are positioned within health service sites by our presence and by our absence

De Certeau (1984) constructs the notion of belonging as a sentiment which develops over time through the everyday activities. He explains that simple everyday activities are part of the process of appropriation and territorialisation and suggests that over time belonging and attachment are established and built on memory, knowledge and the experiences of everyday activities. Based on the work of de Certeau, non-Indigenous Australians have developed attachment and belonging to places based on the dispossession of Aboriginal people and on their everyday practices over the past two hundred years. During this time non-Indigenous people have marked their appropriation and territorialisation with signs, symbols, representations and images. In marking their attachment, they also define how they position Australia’s Indigenous people by both our presence and our absence. This paper will explore signs and symbols within spaces and places in health services and showcase how they reflect the historical, political, cultural, social and economic values, and power relations of broader society. It will draw on the voices of Aboriginal women to demonstrate their everyday experiences of such sites. It will conclude by highlighting how Aboriginal people assert their identities and un-ceded sovereignty within such health sites and actively resist on-going white epistemological notions of us and the logic of patriarchal white sovereignty.

From Absence to Presence, from Silence to Voice: Victims in Transitional Justice Since the Nuremberg Trials

As much as victims have been absent in traditional and national criminal justice for a long time, they were invisible in transitional and international criminal justice after World War II. The Nuremberg Trials were dominated by the perpetrators, and documents were mainly used instead of victim testimony. Contemporaries shared the perspective that transitional justice, both international and national procedures should channel revenge by the victims and their families into the more peaceful venues of courts and legal procedures. Since then, victims have gained an ever more important role in transitional, post-conflict and international criminal justice. Non-judicial tribunals, Truth and Reconciliation Commissions, and international criminal courts and tribunals are relying on the testimony of victims and thus provide a prominent role for victims who often take centre stage in such procedures and trials. International criminal law and the human rights regime have provided victims with several routes to make themselves heard and fight against impunity. This paper tracks the road from absence to presence, and from invisibility to the visibility of victims during the second half of the last and the beginning of the present century. It shows in which ways their presence has shaped and changed transitional and international justice, and in particular how their absence or presence is linked to amnesties.

Evidence for a dual function of EphB4 as tumor promoter and suppressor regulated by the absence or presence of the ephrin-B2 ligand

Overexpression of the receptor tyrosine kinase EphB4 is common in epithelial cancers and linked to tumor progression by promoting angiogenesis, increasing survival and facilitating invasion and migration. However, other studies have reported loss of EphB4 suggesting a tumor suppressor function in some cancers. These opposing roles may be regulated by (i) the presence of the primary ligand ephrin-B2 that regulates pathways involved in tumor suppression or (ii) the absence of ephrin-B2 that allows EphB4 signaling via ligand-independent pathways that contribute to tumor promotion. To explore this theory, EphB4 was overexpressed in the prostate cancer cell line 22Rv1 and the mammary epithelial cell line MCF-10A. Overexpressed EphB4 localized to lipid-rich regions of the plasma membrane and confirmed to be ligand-responsive as demonstrated by increased phosphorylation of ERK1/2 and internalization. EphB4 overexpressing cells demonstrated enhanced anchorage-independent growth, migration and invasion, all characteristics associated with an aggressive phenotype, and therefore supporting the hypothesis that overexpressed EphB4 facilitates tumor promotion. Importantly, these effects were reversed in the presence of ephrin-B2 which led to a reduction in EphB4 protein levels, demonstrating that ligand-dependent signaling is tumor suppressive. Furthermore, extended ligand stimulation caused a significant decrease in proliferation that correlated with a rise in caspase-3/7 and -8 activities. Together, these results demonstrate that overexpression of EphB4 confers a transformed phenotype in the case of MCF-10A cells and an increased metastatic phenotype in the case of 22Rv1 cancer cells and that both phenotypes can be restrained by stimulation with ephrin-B2, in part by reducing EphB4 levels.

FGF-2 induces the proliferation of human periodontal ligament cells and modulates their osteoblastic phenotype by affecting Runx2 expression in the presence and absence of osteogenic inducers

The exact phenotype of human periodontal ligament cells (hPDLCs) remains a controversial area. Basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF‑2) exhibits various functions and its effect on hPDLCs is also controversial. Therefore, the present study examined the effect of FGF‑2 on the growth and osteoblastic phenotype of hPDLCs with or without osteogenic inducers (dexamethasone and β‑glycerophosphate). FGF‑2 was added to defined growth culture medium and osteogenic inductive culture medium. Cell proliferation, osteogenic differentiation and mineralization were measured. The selected differentiation markers, Runx2, collagen type Ⅰ, α1 (Col1a1), osteocalcin (OCN) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), were investigated by reverse transcription‑quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT‑qPCR). Runx2 and OCN protein expression was measured by western blotting. FGF‑2 significantly increased the proliferation of hPDLCs, but did not affect alkaline phosphatase activity. RT‑qPCR analysis revealed enhanced mRNA expression of Runx2, OCN and EGFR, but suppressed Col1a1 gene expression in the absence of osteogenic inducers, whereas all these gene levels had no clear trend in their presence. The Runx2 protein expression was clearly increased, but the OCN protein level showed no evident trend. The mineralization assay demonstrated that FGF‑2 inhibited mineralized matrix deposition with osteogenic inducers. These results suggested that FGF‑2 induces the growth of immature hPDLCs, which is a competitive inhibitor of epithelial downgrowth, and suppresses their differentiation into mineralized tissue by affecting Runx2 expression. Therefore, this may lead to the acceleration of periodontal regeneration.

Modulation of dermal microvascular endithelial cell responses to growth factors and haemostatic factors in the presence of vitronectin

In order to effect permanent closure in burns patients suffering from full thickness wounds, replacing their skin via split thickness autografting, is essential. Dermal substitutes in conjunction with widely meshed split thickness autografts (+/- cultured keratinocytes) reduce scarring at the donor and recipient sites of burns patients by reducing demand for autologous skin (both surface area and thickness), without compromising dermal delivery at the wound face. Tissue engineered products such as Integra consist of a dermal template which is rapidly remodelled to form a neodermis, at which time the temporary silicone outer layer is removed and replaced with autologous split thickness skin. Whilst provision of a thick tissue engineered dermis at full thickness burn sites reduces scarring, it is hampered by delays in vascularisation which results in clinical failure. The ultimate success of any skin graft product is dependent upon a number of basic factors including adherence, haemostasis and in the case of viable tissue grafts, success is ultimately dependent upon restoration of a normal blood supply, and hence this study. Ultimately, the goal of this research is to improve the therapeutic properties of tissue replacements, through impregnation with growth factors aimed at stimulating migration and proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells into the donor tissue post grafting. For the purpose of my masters, the aim was to evaluate the responsiveness of a dermal microvascular endothelial cell line to growth factors and haemostatic factors, in the presence of the glycoprotein vitronectin. Vitronectin formed the backbone for my hypothesis and research due to its association with both epithelial and, more specifically, endothelial migration and proliferation. Early work using a platform technology referred to as VitroGro (Tissue Therapies Ltd), which is comprised of vitronectin bound BP5/IGF-1, aided keratinocyte proliferation. I hypothesised that this result would translate to another epithelium - endothelium. VitroGro had no effect on endothelial proliferation or migration. Vitronectin increases the presence of Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF) and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) receptors, enhancing cell responsiveness to their respective ligands. So, although Human Microvascular Endothelial Cell line 1 (HMEC-1) VEGF receptor expression is generally low, it was hypothesised that exposure to vitronectin would up-regulate this receptor. HMEC-1 migration, but not proliferation, was enhanced by vitronectin bound VEGF, as well as vitronectin bound Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), both of which could be used to stimulate microvascular endothelial cell migration for the purpose of transplantation. In addition to vitronectin's synergy with various growth factors, it has also been shown to play a role in haemostasis. Vitronectin binds thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT) to form a trimeric complex that takes on many of the attributes of vitronectin, such as heparin affinity, which results in its adherence to endothelium via heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSP), followed by unaltered transcytosis through the endothelium, and ultimately its removal from the circulation. This has been documented as a mechanism designed to remove thrombin from the circulation. Equally, it could be argued that it is a mechanism for delivering vitronectin to the matrix. My results show that matrix-bound vitronectin dramatically alters the effect that conformationally altered antithrombin three (cATIII) has on proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells. cATIII stimulates HMEC-1 proliferation in the presence of matrix-bound vitronectin, as opposed to inhibiting proliferation in its absence. Binding vitronectin to tissues and organs prior to transplant, in the presence of cATIII, will have a profound effect on microvascular infiltration of the graft, by preventing occlusion of existing vessels whilst stimulating migration and proliferation of endothelium within the tissue.