289 resultados para Predicting future earnings growth

em Queensland University of Technology - ePrints Archive


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Background: Topical administration of growth factors (GFs) has displayed some potential in wound healing, but variable efficacy, high doses and costs have hampered their implementation. Moreover, this approach ignores the fact that wound repair is driven by interactions between multiple GFs and extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins. The Problem: Deep dermal partial thickness burn (DDPTB) injuries are the most common burn presentation to pediatric hospitals and also represent the most difficult burn injury to manage clinically. DDPTB often repair with a hypertrophic scar. Wounds that close rapidly exhibit reduced scarring. Thus treatments that shorten the time taken to close DDTPB’s may coincidently reduce scarring. Basic/Clinical Science Advances: We have observed that multi-protein complexes comprised of IGF and IGF-binding proteins bound to the ECM protein vitronectin (VN) significantly enhance cellular functions relevant to wound repair in human skin keratinocytes. These responses require activation of both the IGF-1R and the VN-binding αv integrins. We have recently evaluated the wound healing potential of these GF:VN complexes in a porcine model of DDTPB injury. Clinical Care Relevance: This pilot study demonstrates that GF:VN complexes hold promise as a wound healing therapy. Enhanced healing responses were observed after treatment with nanogram doses of the GF:VN complexes in vitro and in vivo. Critically healing was achieved using substantially less GF than studies in which GFs alone have been used. Conclusion: These data suggest that coupling GFs to ECM proteins, such as VN, may ultimately prove to be an improved technique for the delivery of novel GF-based wound therapies.

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The purpose of this study was to challenge the broadly based focus of injury prevention strategies towards concern with the needs of young adolescents who engage in multiple anti-social and delinquent behaviours. Five hundred and forty 13-14 year olds reported on injuries and truancy, violence, illegal road behaviours, drug, and alcohol use. Engagement in these behaviours was found to contribute to the likelihood of an injury. Those engaging in the most anti-social and delinquent behaviours were around five times more likely to report medically-treated injuries in the past three months. Their likelihood of future injury was 1.8 times more likely when they were followed up three months later. The engagement in multiple delinquent and illegal behaviours thus significantly increased the likelihood of injury and identifies a particularly vulnerable group. The findings also suggest that reaching these young people represents a key target for change strategies in injury prevention programs.

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Edith Penrose’s theory of firm growth postulates that a firm’s current growth rate will be influenced by the adjustment costs of, and changes to a firm’s productive opportunity set arising from, previous growth. Although she explicitly considered the impact of previous organic growth on current organic growth, she was largely silent about the impact of previous acquisitive growth. In this paper we extend Penrose’s work to examine that the relative impact of organic and acquisitive growth on the adjustment costs and productive opportunity set of the firm. Employing a panel of commercially active enterprises in Sweden over a 10 year period our results suggest the following. First, previous organic growth acts as a constraint on current organic growth. Second, previous acquisitive growth has a positive effect on current organic growth. We conclude that organic growth and acquisitive growth constitute two distinct strategic options facing the firm, which have a differential impact on the future organic growth of the firm.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

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This thesis explores the business environment for self-publishing musicians at the end of the 20th century and the start of the 21st century from theoretical and empirical standpoints. The exploration begins by asking three research questions: what are the factors affecting the sustainability of an Independent music business; how many of those factors can be directly influenced by an Independent musician in the day-to-day operations of their musical enterprise; and how can those factors be best manipulated to maximise the benefit generated from digital music assets? It answers these questions by considering the nature of value in the music business in light of theories of political economy, then quantitative and qualitative examinations of the nature of participation in the music business, and then auto-ethnographic approaches to the application of two technologically enabled tools available to Independent musicians. By analyzing the results of five different examinations of the topic it answers each research question with reference to four sets of recurring issues that affect the operations of a 21st century music business: the musicians’ personal characteristics, their ability to address their business’s informational needs; their ability to manage the relationships upon which their business depends; and their ability to resolve the remaining technological problems that confront them. It discusses ways in which Independent self-publishing musicians can and cannot deal with these four issues on a day-to-day basis and highlights aspects for which technological solutions do not exist as well as ways in which technology is not as effective as has been claimed. It then presents a self-critique and proposes some directions for further study before concluding by suggesting some common features of 21st century Independent music businesses. This thesis makes three contributions to knowledge. First, it provides a new understanding of the sources of musical value, shows how this explains changes in the music industries over the past 30 years, and provides a framework for predicting future developments in those industries. Second, it shows how the technological discontinuity that has occurred around the start of the 21st century has and has not affected the production and distribution of digital cultural artefacts and thus the attitudes, approaches, and business prospects of Independent musicians. Third, it argues for new understandings of two methods by which self-publishing musicians can grow a business using production methods that are only beginning to be more broadly understood: home studio recording and fan-sourced production. Developed from the perspective of working musicians themselves, this thesis identifies four sets of issues that determine the probable success of musicians’ efforts to adopt new technologies to capture the value of the musicians’ creativity and thereby foster growth that will sustain an Independent music business in the 21st century.

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The publication of the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) introduced the notion that a life-threatening illness can be a stressor and catalyst for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Since then a solid body of research has been established investigating the post-diagnosis experience of cancer. These studies have identified a number of short and long-term life changes resulting from a diagnosis of cancer and associated treatments. In this chapter, we discuss the psychosocial response to the cancer experience and the potential for cancer-related distress. Cancer can represent a life-threatening diagnosis that may be associated with aggressive treatments and result in physical and psychological changes. The potential for future trauma through the lasting effects of the disease and treatment, and the possibility of recurrence, can be a source of continued psychological distress. In addition to the documented adverse repercussions of cancer, we also outline the recent shift that has occurred in the psycho-oncology literature regarding positive life change or posttraumatic growth that is commonly reported after a diagnosis of cancer. Adopting a salutogenic framework acknowledges that the cancer experience is a dynamic psychosocial process with both negative and positive repercussions. Next, we describe the situational and individual factors that are associated with posttraumatic growth and the types of positive life change that are prevalent in this context. Finally, we discuss the implications of this research in a therapeutic context and the directions of future posttraumatic growth research with cancer survivors. This chapter will present both quantitative and qualitative research that indicates the potential for personal growth from adversity rather than just mere survival and return to pre-diagnosis functioning. It is important to emphasise however, that the presence of growth and prevalence of resilience does not negate the extremely distressing nature of a cancer diagnosis for the patient and their families and the suffering that can accompany treatment regimes. Indeed, it will be explained that for growth to occur, the experience must be one that quite literally shatters previously held schemas in order to act as a catalyst for change.

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The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

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Cat’s claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry) is a major environmental weed in Australia. Two forms (‘long’ and ‘short’ pod) of the weed occur in Australia. This investigation aimed to evaluate and compare germination behavior and occurrence of polyembryony in the two forms of the weed. Seeds were germinated in growth chambers set to 10/20 °C, 15/25 °C, 20/30 °C, 30/45 °C and 25 °C. Germination and polyembryony were monitored over a period of 12 weeks. For all the treatments in this study, seeds from the short pod form exhibited significantly higher germination rates and higher occurrence of polyembryony than those from the long pod form. Seeds from the long pod form did not germinate at the lowest temperature of 10/20 °C; in contrast, those of the short pod form germinated under this condition, albeit at a lower rate. Results from this study could explain why the short pod form of D. unguis-cati is the more widely distributed form in Australia, while the long pod form is confined to a few localities. The results have implication in predicting future ranges of both forms of the invasive D. unguis-cati, as well as inform management decisions for control of the weed.

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One of the objectives of general-purpose financial reporting is to provide information about the financial position, financial performance and cash flows of an entity that is useful to a wide range of users in making economic decisions. The current focus on potentially increased relevance of fair value accounting weighed against issues of reliability has failed to consider the potential impact on the predictive ability of accounting. Based on a sample of international (non-U.S.) banks from 24 countries during 2009-2012, we test the usefulness of fair values in improving the predictive ability of earnings. First, we find that the increasing use of fair values on balance-sheet financial instruments enhances the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings and cash flows. Second, we provide evidence that the fair value hierarchy classification choices affect the ability of earnings to predict future cash flows and future earnings. More precisely, we find that the non-discretionary fair value component (Level 1 assets) improves the predictability of current earnings whereas the discretionary fair value components (Level 2 and Level 3 assets) weaken the predictive power of earnings. Third, we find a consistent and strong association between factors reflecting country-wide institutional structures and predictive power of fair values based on discretionary measurement inputs (Level 2 and Level 3 assets and liabilities). Our study is timely and relevant. The findings have important implications for standard setters and contribute to the debate on the use of fair value accounting.

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While purporting to enhance Australia’s sustainability, the federal government’s Population Strategy rejects the assessment of the limiting factors to future population growth, thus avoiding urgent threshold issues such as resource depletion and environmental destruction. A more forward-thinking and whole-system perspective would assess and incorporate critical biophysical limits into governance processes with suitable prioritisation. It would encourage communities to examine their individual and collective responsibilities in the context of these limits in order to most equitably optimise outcomes; and it would employ both a resource-based examination of minimum population requirements, and an impact-based assessment of maximum thresholds. This carrying capacity approach to planning could help guide society towards a more sustainable future.

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Rapid urbanisation and resulting continuous increase in traffic has been recognised as key factors in the contribution of increased pollutant loads to urban stormwater and in turn to receiving waters. Urbanisation primarily increases anthropogenic activities and the percentage of impervious surfaces in urban areas. These processes are collectively responsible for urban stormwater pollution. In this regard, urban traffic and land use related activities have been recognised as the primary pollutant sources. This is primarily due to the generation of a range of key pollutants such as solids, heavy metals and PAHs. Appropriate treatment system design is the most viable approach to mitigate stormwater pollution. However, limited understanding of the pollutant process and transport pathways constrains effective treatment design. This highlights necessity for the detailed understanding of traffic and other land use related pollutants processes and pathways in relation to urban stormwater pollution. This study has created new knowledge in relation to pollutant processes and transport pathways encompassing atmospheric pollutants, atmospheric deposition and build-up on ground surfaces of traffic generated key pollutants. The research study was primarily based on in-depth experimental investigations. This thesis describes the extensive knowledge created relating to the processes of atmospheric pollutant build-up, atmospheric deposition and road surface build-up and establishing their relationships as a chain of processes. The analysis of atmospheric deposition revealed that both traffic and land use related sources contribute total suspended particulate matter (TSP) to the atmosphere. Traffic sources become dominant during weekdays whereas land use related sources become dominant during weekends due to the reduction in traffic sources. The analysis further concluded that atmospheric TSP, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals (HMs) concentrations are highly influenced by total average daily heavy duty traffic, traffic congestion and the fraction of commercial and industrial land uses. A set of mathematical equation were developed to predict TSP, PAHs and HMs concentrations in the atmosphere based on the influential traffic and land use related parameters. Dry deposition samples were collected for different antecedent dry days and wet deposition samples were collected immediately after rainfall events. The dry deposition was found to increase with the antecedent dry days and consisted of relatively coarser particles (greater than 1.4 ìm) when compared to wet deposition. The wet deposition showed a strong affinity to rainfall depth, but was not related to the antecedent dry period. It was also found that smaller size particles (less than 1.4 ìm) travel much longer distances from the source and deposit mainly with the wet deposition. Pollutants in wet deposition are less sensitive to the source characteristics compared to dry deposition. Atmospheric deposition of HMs is not directly influenced by land use but rather by proximity to high emission sources such as highways. Therefore, it is important to consider atmospheric deposition as a key pollutant source to urban stormwater in the vicinity of these types of sources. Build-up was analysed for five different particle size fractions, namely, <1 ìm, 1-75 ìm, 75-150 ìm, 150-300 ìm and >300 ìm for solids, PAHs and HMs. The outcomes of the study indicated that PAHs and HMs in the <75 ìm size fraction are generated mainly by traffic related activities whereas the > 150 ìm size fraction is generated by both traffic and land use related sources. Atmospheric deposition is an important source for HMs build-up on roads, whereas the contribution of PAHs from atmospheric sources is limited. A comprehensive approach was developed to predict traffic and other land use related pollutants in urban stormwater based on traffic and other land use characteristics. This approach primarily included the development of a set of mathematical equations to predict traffic generated pollutants by linking traffic and land use characteristics to stormwater quality through mathematical modelling. The outcomes of this research will contribute to the design of appropriate treatment systems to safeguard urban receiving water quality for future traffic growth scenarios. The „real world. application of knowledge generated was demonstrated through mathematical modelling of solids in urban stormwater, accounting for the variability in traffic and land use characteristics.

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Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and one which is increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the characteristics of users of emergency health services with an aim to identify those that appear to contribute to demand growth. This study utilises data on patients treated by Emergency Departments (ED) and Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) across Queensland. ED data was derived from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period 2001-02 through to 2010-11. Ambulance data was extracted from the QAS’ Ambulance Information Management System (AIMS) and electronic Ambulance Report Form (eARF) for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. Due to discrepancies and comparability issues for ED data, this monograph compares data from the 2003-04 time period with 2010-11 data for 21 of the reporting EDs. Also a snapshot of users for the 2010-11 financial year for 31 reporting EDs is used to describe the characteristics of users and to compare those characteristics with population demographics. For QAS data, the 2002-03 and 2009-10 time periods were selected for detailed analyses to identify trends. • Demand for emergency health care services is increasing, representing both increased population and increased relative utilisation. Per capita demand for ED attention has increased by 2% per annum over the last decade and for ambulance attention by 3.7% per annum. • The growth in ED demand is prominent in more urgent triage categories with actual decline in less urgent patients. An estimated 55% of patients attend hospital EDs outside of normal working hours. There is no evidence that patients presenting out of hours are significantly different to those presenting within working hours; they have similar triage assessments and outcomes. • Patients suffering from injuries and poisoning comprise 28% of the ED workload (an increase of 65% in the study period), whilst declines of 32% in cardiovascular and circulatory conditions, and musculoskeletal problems have been observed. • 25.6% of patients attending EDs are admitted to hospital. 19% of admitted patients and 7% of patients who die in the ED are triage category 4 or 5 on arrival. • The average age of ED patients is 35.6 years. Demand has grown in all age groups and amongst both men and women. Men have higher utilisation rates for ED in all age groups. The only group where the growth rate in women has exceeded men is in the 20-29 age group; this growth is particularly in the injury and poisoning categories. • Considerable attention has been paid publicly to ED performance criteria. It is worth noting that 50% of all patients were treated within 33 minutes of arrival. • Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people appears to exceed those of European and other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is generally less than that of Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of different age and socioeconomic profiles. • Demand for ambulance service is also increasing at a rate that exceeds population growth. Utilisation rates have increased by an average of 5% per annum in Queensland compared to 3.6% nationally, and the utilisation rate in Queensland is 27% higher than the national average. • The growth in ambulance utilisation has also been amongst the more urgent categories of dispatch and utilisation rates are higher in rural and regional areas than in the metropolitan area. The demand for ambulance increases with age but the growth in demand for ambulance service has been more prominent in younger age groups. These findings contribute significantly to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It shows that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that the congestion of emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unable to be substantiated. The consistency of the growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only the changing demographics of the Australian population but also the changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors. The growth is also amongst patients with acute injury and poisoning which is inconsistent with rates of chronic disease as a fundamental driver. We have also interviewed patients in regard to their decision making choices for acute health care and the factors that influence these decisions and this will be the subject of a third Monograph and publications.

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The publication of the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) introduced the notion that a life-threatening illness can be a stressor and catalyst for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Since then a solid body of research has been established investigating the post-diagnosis experience of cancer. These studies have identified a number of short and long-term life changes resulting from a diagnosis of cancer and associated treatments. In this chapter, we discuss the psychosocial response to the cancer experience and the potential for cancer-related distress. Cancer can represent a life-threatening diagnosis that may be associated with aggressive treatments and result in physical and psychological changes. The potential for future trauma through the lasting effects of the disease and treatment, and the possibility of recurrence, can be a source of continued psychological distress. In addition to the documented adverse repercussions of cancer, we also outline the recent shift that has occurred in the psycho-oncology literature regarding positive life change or posttraumatic growth that is commonly reported after a diagnosis of cancer. Adopting a salutogenic framework acknowledges that the cancer experience is a dynamic psychosocial process with both negative and positive repercussions. Next, we describe the situational and individual factors that are associated with posttraumatic growth and the types of positive life change that are prevalent in this context. Finally, we discuss the implications of this research in a therapeutic context and the directions of future posttraumatic growth research with cancer survivors. This chapter will present both quantitative and qualitative research that indicates the potential for personal growth from adversity rather than just mere survival and return to pre-diagnosis functioning. It is important to emphasise however, that the presence of growth and prevalence of resilience does not negate the extremely distressing nature of a cancer diagnosis for the patient and their families and the suffering that can accompany treatment regimes. Indeed, it will be explained that for growth to occur, the experience must be one that quite literally shatters previously held schemas in order to act as a catalyst for change.

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The publication of the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) introduced the notion that a life-threatening illness can be a stressor and catalyst for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Since then a solid body of research has been established investigating the post-diagnosis experience of cancer. These studies have identified a number of short and long-term life changes resulting from a diagnosis of cancer and associated treatments. In this chapter, we discuss the psychosocial response to the cancer experience and the potential for cancer-related distress. Cancer can represent a life-threatening diagnosis that may be associated with aggressive treatments and result in physical and psychological changes. The potential for future trauma through the lasting effects of the disease and treatment, and the possibility of recurrence, can be a source of continued psychological distress. In addition to the documented adverse repercussions of cancer, we also outline the recent shift that has occurred in the psycho-oncology literature regarding positive life change or posttraumatic growth that is commonly reported after a diagnosis of cancer. Adopting a salutogenic framework acknowledges that the cancer experience is a dynamic psychosocial process with both negative and positive repercussions. Next, we describe the situational and individual factors that are associated with posttraumatic growth and the types of positive life change that are prevalent in this context. Finally, we discuss the implications of this research in a therapeutic context and the directions of future posttraumatic growth research with cancer survivors. This chapter will present both quantitative and qualitative research that indicates the potential for personal growth from adversity rather than just mere survival and return to pre-diagnosis functioning. It is important to emphasise however, that the presence of growth and prevalence of resilience does not negate the extremely distressing nature of a cancer diagnosis for the patient and their families and the suffering that can accompany treatment regimes. Indeed, it will be explained that for growth to occur, the experience must be one that quite literally shatters previously held schemas in order to act as a catalyst for change.

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In March 2008, the Australian Government announced its intention to introduce a national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), now expected to start in 2015. This impending development provides an ideal setting to investigate the impact an ETS in Australia will have on the market valuation of Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) firms. This is the first empirical study into the pricing effects of the ETS in Australia. Primarily, we hypothesize that firm value will be negatively related to a firm's carbon intensity profile. That is, there will be a greater impact on firm value for high carbon emitters in the period prior (2007) to the introduction of the ETS, whether for reasons relating to the existence of unbooked liabilities associated with future compliance and/or abatement costs, or for reasons relating to reduced future earnings. Using a sample of 58 Australian listed firms (constrained by the current availability of emissions data) which comprise larger, more profitable and less risky listed Australian firms, we first undertake an event study focusing on five distinct information events argued to impact the probability of the proposed ETS being enacted. Here, we find direct evidence that the capital market is indeed pricing the proposed ETS. Second, using a modified version of the Ohlson (1995) valuation model, we undertake a valuation analysis designed not only to complement the event study results, but more importantly to provide insights into the capital market's assessment of the magnitude of the economic impact of the proposed ETS as reflected in market capitalization. Here, our results show that the market assesses the most carbon intensive sample firms a market value decrement relative to other sample firms of between 7% and 10% of market capitalization. Further, based on the carbon emission profile of the sample firms we imply a ‘future carbon permit price’ of between AUD$17 per tonne and AUD$26 per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted. This study is more precise than industry reports, which set a carbon price of between AUD$15 to AUD$74 per tonne.