A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

The ecology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritdae) : what do we know to assist pest management?

The distribution, systematics and ecology of Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly are reviewed. Bactrocera tryoni is a member of the B. tryoni complex of species, which currently includes four named species, viz. B. tryoni s.s., B. neohumeralis, B. melas and B. aquilonis. The species status of B. melas and B. aquilonis are unclear (they may be junior synonyms of B. tryoni) and their validity, or otherwise, needs to be confirmed as a matter of urgency. While Queensland fruit fly is regarded as a tropical species, it cannot be assumed that its distribution will spread further south under climate change scenarios. Increasing aridity and hot dry summers, as well as more complex, indirect interactions resulting from elevated CO2, make predicting the future distribution and abundance of B. tryoni difficult. The ecology of B. tryoni is reviewed with respect to current control approaches (with the exception of Sterile Insect Technique which is covered in a companion paper). We conclude that there are major gaps in the knowledge required to implement most non-insecticide based management approaches. Priority areas for future research include host plant interactions, protein and cue-lure foraging and use, spatial dynamics, development of new monitoring tools, investigating the use of natural enemies and better integration of fruit flies into general horticultural IPM systems.

Determination of stress-strain characteristics of railhead steel using image analysis

True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predicted plastic strains. Coupons obtained at varying depths of the railhead were, therefore, tested under axial tension and the strains were measured using strain gauges as well as an image analysis technique, known as the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The head hardened steel exhibit existence of three distinct zones of yield strength; the yield strength as the ratio of the average yield strength provided in the standard (σyr=780MPa) and the corresponding depth as the ratio of the head hardened zone along the axis of symmetry are as follows: (1.17 σyr, 20%), (1.06 σyr, 20%- 80%) and (0.71 σyr, > 80%). The stress-strain curves exhibit limited plastic zone with fracture occurring at strain less than 0.1.

Numerical solution of stress intensity factors of multiple cracks in great number with eigen COD boundary integral equations

Based on the eigen crack opening displacement (COD) boundary integral equations, a newly developed computational approach is proposed for the analysis of multiple crack problems. The eigen COD particularly refers to a crack in an infinite domain under fictitious traction acting on the crack surface. With the concept of eigen COD, the multiple cracks in great number can be solved by using the conventional displacement discontinuity boundary integral equations in an iterative fashion with a small size of system matrix. The interactions among cracks are dealt with by two parts according to the distances of cracks to the current crack. The strong effects of cracks in adjacent group are treated with the aid of the local Eshelby matrix derived from the traction BIEs in discrete form. While the relatively week effects of cracks in far-field group are treated in the iteration procedures. Numerical examples are provided for the stress intensity factors of multiple cracks, up to several thousands in number, with the proposed approach. By comparing with the analytical solutions in the literature as well as solutions of the dual boundary integral equations, the effectiveness and the efficiencies of the proposed approach are verified.

Choosing your niche : the social ecology of the International Baccalaureate Diploma in Australia.

The International Baccalaureate’s branding and reputation targets academic high achievers aiming for university entrance. This is an empirical examination of the growing popularity of this transnational secondary credential amongst local populations in Australia, focusing on its uptake across the community, and the discourses underpinning its spread and popularity. This paper reports on online surveys of 179 parents and 231 students in schools offering the IB as an alternative to Australian state curricula. It sets out to understand the social ecology of who chooses the IB and who it chooses. Statistically significant differences between IB and non-IB choosers were found in terms of family income, parent education, student aspirations, transnational lifestyles, and neoconservative, neoliberal and cosmopolitan beliefs. The analysis demonstrates how the reproduction of advantage is accomplished through choice behaviours in stratified educational markets.

Vitamin D status and skin cancer risk independent of time outdoors : 11-year prospective study in and Australian community

Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol  l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol  l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol  l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.

The development of an effective vaccine against Chlamydia : utilisation of a non-toxic mucosal adjuvant to generate a protective mucosal response

Chlamydia is responsible for a wide range of diseases with enormous global economic and health burden. As the majority of chlamydial infections are asymptomatic, a vaccine has greatest potential to reduce infection and disease prevalence. Protective immunity against Chlamydia requires the induction of a mucosal immune response, ideally, at the multiple sites in the body where an infection can be established. Mucosal immunity is most effectively stimulated by targeting vaccination to the epithelium, which is best accomplished by direct vaccine application to mucosal surfaces rather than by injection. The efficacy of needle-free vaccines however is reliant on a powerful adjuvant to overcome mucosal tolerance. As very few adjuvants have proven able to elicit mucosal immunity without harmful side effects, there is a need to develop non-toxic adjuvants or safer ways to administered pre-existing toxic adjuvants. In the present study we investigated the novel non-toxic mucosal adjuvant CTA1-DD. The immunogenicity of CTA1-DD was compared to our "gold-standard" mucosal adjuvant combination of cholera toxin (CT) and cytosine-phosphate-guanosine oligodeoxynucleotide (CpG-ODN). We also utilised different needle-free immunisation routes, intranasal (IN), sublingual (SL) and transcutaneous (TC), to stimulate the induction of immunity at multiple mucosal surfaces in the body where Chlamydia are known to infect. Moreover, administering each adjuvant by different routes may also limit the toxicity of the CT/CpG adjuvant, currently restricted from use in humans. Mice were immunised with either adjuvant together with the chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) to evaluate vaccine safety and quantify the induction of antigen-specific mucosal immune responses. The level of protection against infection and disease was also assessed in vaccinated animals following a live genital or respiratory tract infectious challenge. The non-toxic CTA1-DD was found to be safe and immunogenic when delivered via the IN route in mice, inducing a comparable mucosal response and level of protective immunity against chlamydial challenge to its toxic CT/CpG counterpart administered by the same route. The utilisation of different routes of immunisation strongly influenced the distribution of antigen-specific responses to distant mucosal surfaces and also abrogated the toxicity of CT/CpG. The CT/CpG-adjuvanted vaccine was safe when administered by the SL and TC routes and conferred partial immunity against infection and pathology in both challenge models. This protection was attributed to the induction of antigen-specific pro-inflammatory cellular responses in the lymph nodes regional to the site of infection and rather than in the spleen. Development of non-toxic adjuvants and effective ways to reduce the side effects of toxic adjuvants has profound implications for vaccine development, particularly against mucosal pathogens like Chlamydia. Interestingly, we also identified two contrasting vaccines in both infection models capable of preventing infection or pathology exclusively. This indicated that the development of pathology following an infection of vaccinated animals was independent of bacterial load and was instead the result of immunopathology, potentially driven by the adaptive immune response generated following immunisation. While both vaccines expressed high levels of interleukin (IL)-17 cytokines, the pathology protected group displayed significantly reduced expression of corresponding IL-17 receptors and hence an inhibition of signalling. This indicated that the balance of IL-17-mediated responses defines the degree of protection against infection and tissue damage generated following vaccination. This study has enabled us to better understand the immune basis of pathology and protection, necessary to design more effective vaccines.

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

E-mail in the workplace : the role of stress appraisals and normative response pressure in the relationship between email stressors and employee strain

In many organizations, e-mail is an effective and dominant workplace application tool; however, research identifying its role as a potential workplace stressor remains limited. Utilizing the Transactional Model of Stress (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984), 215 full-time administrative and academic staff at a university were surveyed about workplace e-mail. The aim was to study the effects of potential e-mail stressors on emotional exhaustion as mediated and moderated by person and situation variables. Results indicated that 2 distinct e-mail stressors—high quantity and poor quality (in terms of high emotionality and ambiguity) of workplace e-mail—were associated both with stress appraisals (e-mail overload and e-mail uncertainty) and with emotional exhaustion. Furthermore, the effects of the 2 e-mail stressors on emotional exhaustion were mediated by appraised e-mail overload. Perceived normative response pressure—a relevant aspect of the specific work environment—added to the explanation of emotional exhaustion and accentuated the positive effect of e-mail ambiguity on emotional exhaustion, although effects involving normative response pressure were not explained by the stress appraisals.

Regulatory focus moderates the relationship between task control and physiological and psychological markers of stress : a work simulation study

This experiment examined whether trait regulatory focus moderates the effects of task control on stress reactions during a demanding work simulation. Regulatory focus describes two ways in which individuals self-regulate toward desired goals: promotion and prevention. As highly promotion-focused individuals are oriented toward growth and challenge, it was expected that they would show better adaptation to demanding work under high task control. In contrast, as highly prevention-focused individuals are oriented toward safety and responsibility they were expected to show better adaptation under low task control. Participants (N = 110) completed a measure of trait regulatory focus and then three trials of a demanding inbox activity under either low, neutral, or high task control. Heart rate variability (HRV), affective reactions (anxiety & task dissatisfaction), and task performance were measured at each trial. As predicted, highly promotion-focused individuals found high (compared to neutral) task control stress-buffering for performance. Moreover, highly prevention-focused individuals found high (compared to low) task control stress-exacerbating for dissatisfaction. In addition, highly prevention-focused individuals found low task control stress-buffering for dissatisfaction, performance, and HRV. However, these effects of low task control for highly prevention-focused individuals depended on their promotion focus.

Extinction risk analysis of exploited green turtle stocks in the Indo-Pacific

In parts of the Indo-Pacific, large-scale exploitation of the green turtle Chelonia mydas continues to pose a serious threat to the persistence of this species; yet very few studies have assessed the pattern and extent of the impact of such harvests. We used demographic and genetic data in an age-based model to investigate the viability of an exploited green turtle stock from Aru, south-east Indonesia. We found that populations are decreasing under current exploitation pressures. The effects of increasingly severe exploitation activities at foraging and nesting habitat varied depending on the migratory patterns of the stock. Our model predicted a rapid decline of the Aru stock in Indonesia under local exploitation pressure and a shift in the genetic composition of the stock. We used the model to investigate the influence of different types of conservation actions on the persistence of the Aru stock. The results show that local management actions such as nest protection and reducing harvests of adult nesting and foraging turtles can have considerable conservation outcomes and result in the long-term persistence of genetically distinct management units. © 2010 The Authors. Animal Conservation © 2010 The Zoological Society of London.

Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

Prevalence and risk factors of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran

Purpose: To determine the prevalence and risk factors of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, using random cluster sampling, 3065 Shiraz schoolchildren were selected in this study. The participants totaled 2683; 1872 elementary and middle school and 811 high school students. For the primary and middle schoolchildren, cycloplegic refraction and for the high school students, non-cycloplegic autorefraction was measured. Myopia, defined as spherical equivalent (SE) refraction -0.50 diopter (D) or worse, hyperopia as SE +2.00D and +0.50D or more for cycloplegic and noncycloplegic refractions respectively, and astigmatism as cylinder -0.75D or worse. Results: The prevalence of refractive errors in elementary and middle school students was: myopia 4.35 % (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.89 -5.81), hyperopia 5.04 % (95%CI, 3.49 -6.58) and astigmatism 11.79 % (95%CI, 10.21 -13.38). For high school students, these rates were 22.4 % (95%CI, 18.44 -26.36), 10.52 % (95%CI, 6.75 -14.29) and 20.99% (95%CI, 16.55 -25.44), respectively.The prevalence of myopia increased with age in primary and middle school students (OR=1.15, 95% CI, 0.98 to1.33, p=0.073). Conclusions: The result of this study indicated a relatively low prevalence of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz according to the protocol by "Refractive Error Study in Children" (RESC) in other investigations.

Employee reactions to behavioural control under conditions of stress: The moderating role of self-efficacy

Extensive research conducted in the occupational stress literature has failed to provide convincing support for the stress-buffering effects of work control on employee adjustment. Drawing on research conducted in the laboratory context, it was proposed that the stress-buffering effects of work control on employee adjustment would be more marked at high, rather than low, levels of self-efficacy. In a sample of 100 customer service representatives, a significant three-way interaction among role conflict, work control and self-efficacy (measured at Time 1) was observed on (low) depersonalization (measured at Time 2). Consistent with expectations, work control reduced the negative effects of work stress on this outcome measure only for employees who perceived high levels of self-efficacy at work. In addition, there was evidence to suggest that self-efficacy moderated the main effects of work control on job satisfaction and somatic health. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the job strain model, and also in relation to workplace interventions designed to improve levels of employee adjustment.

The MS risk allele of CD40 is associated with reduced cell-membrane bound expression in antigen presenting cells: Implications for gene function

Human genetic and animal studies have implicated the costimulatory molecule CD40 in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). We investigated the cell specific gene and protein expression variation controlled by the CD40 genetic variant(s) associated with MS, i.e. the T-allele at rs1883832. Previously we had shown that the risk allele is expressed at a lower level in whole blood, especially in people with MS. Here, we have defined the immune cell subsets responsible for genotype and disease effects on CD40 expression at the mRNA and protein level. In cell subsets in which CD40 is most highly expressed, B lymphocytes and dendritic cells, the MS-associated risk variant is associated with reduced CD40 cell-surface protein expression. In monocytes and dendritic cells, the risk allele additionally reduces the ratio of expression of full-length versus truncated CD40 mRNA, the latter encoding secreted CD40. We additionally show that MS patients, regardless of genotype, express significantly lower levels of CD40 cell-surface protein compared to unaffected controls in B lymphocytes. Thus, both genotype-dependent and independent down-regulation of cell-surface CD40 is a feature of MS. Lower expression of a co-stimulator of T cell activation, CD40, is therefore associated with increased MS risk despite the same CD40 variant being associated with reduced risk of other inflammatory autoimmune diseases. Our results highlight the complexity and likely individuality of autoimmune pathogenesis, and could be consistent with antiviral and/or immunoregulatory functions of CD40 playing an important role in protection from MS. © 2015 Field et al.