Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

To be well is to be not unwell : the new battleground inside our children’s heads

A number of factors are thought to increase the risk of serious psychiatric disorder, including a family history of mental health issues and/or childhood trauma. As a result, some mental health advocates argue for a pre-emptive approach that includes the use of powerful anti-psychotic medication with young people considered at-risk of developing bipolar disorder or psychosis. This controversial approach is enabled and, at the same time, obscured by medical discourses that speak of promoting and maintaining youth “wellbeing”, however, there are inherent dangers both to the pre-emptive approach and in its positioning within the discourse of wellbeing. This chapter critically engages with these dangers by drawing on research with “at-risk” children and young people enrolled in special schools for disruptive behaviour. The stories told by these highly diagnosed and heavily medicated young people act as a cautionary tale to counter the increasingly common perception that pills and “Dr Phil’s” can cure social ills.

A thematic approach to integrating maths and science for pre-service primary teachers via sustainability

Efforts to improve mathematics and science content knowledge have in many institutions required redefining teacher education through new teaching and learning. See, for example, Peard & Pumadevi (2007) for an account of one such attempt involving the development of a Foundations Unit, Scientific and Quantitative Literacy. This unit is core for all first year pre-service primary teacher education students at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and two Education Institutes in Malaysia, Institute Perguruan Raja Melewar (IPRM), and Institute Perguruan Teknik (IPT) Kuala Lumpur. Since then, QUT has modified the unit to adopt a thematic approach to the same content. An aim of the unit rewrite was the development of a positive attitude and disposition to the teaching and learning of mathematics and science, with a curiosity and willingness to speculate about and explore the world. Numeracy was specifically identified within the mathematics encountered and appropriately embedded in the science learning area. The importance of the ability to engage in communication of and about mathematics and science was considered crucial to the development of pre-service primary teachers. Cognisance was given to the appropriate selection and use of technology to enhance learning - digital technologies were embedded in the teaching, learning and assessment of the unit to avoid being considered as an optional extra. This was achieved around the theme of “the sustainable school”. This „sustainability‟ theme was selected due to its prominence in Australia‟s futures-oriented National Curriculum which will be implemented in 2011. This paper outlines the approach taken to the implementation of the unit and discusses early indicators of its effectiveness.

A thematic approach to integrating maths and science for pre-service primary teachers via sustainability

Efforts to improve mathematics and science content knowledge have in many institutions required redefining teacher education through new teaching and learning. See, for example, Peard & Pumadevi (2007) for an account of one such attempt involving the development of a Foundations Unit, Scientific and Quantitative Literacy. This unit is core for all first year pre-service primary teacher education students at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and two Education Institutes in Malaysia, Institute Perguruan Raja Melewar (IPRM), and Institute Perguruan Teknik (IPT) Kuala Lumpur. Since then, QUT has modified the unit to adopt a thematic approach to the same content. An aim of the unit rewrite was the development of a positive attitude and disposition to the teaching and learning of mathematics and science, with a curiosity and willingness to speculate about and explore the world. Numeracy was specifically identified within the mathematics encountered and appropriately embedded in the science learning area. The importance of the ability to engage in communication of and about mathematics and science was considered crucial to the development of pre-service primary teachers. Cognisance was given to the appropriate selection and use of technology to enhance learning - digital technologies were embedded in the teaching, learning and assessment of the unit to avoid being considered as an optional extra. This was achieved around the theme of “the sustainable school”. This ‘sustainability’ theme was selected due to its prominence in Australia’s futures-oriented National Curriculum which will be implemented in 2011. This paper outlines the approach taken to the implementation of the unit and discusses early indicators of its effectiveness.

A fuzzy neural network approach for contractor pre-qualification

Nonlinearity, uncertainty and subjectivity are the three predominant characteristics of contractors prequalification which cause the process more of an art than a scientific evaluation. A fuzzy neural network (FNN) model, amalgamating both the fuzzy set and neural network theories, has been developed aiming to improve the objectiveness of contractor prequalification. Through the FNN theory, the fuzzy rules as used by the prequalifiers can be identified and the corresponding membership functions can be transformed. Eighty-five cases with detailed decision criteria and rules for prequalifying Hong Kong civil engineering contractors were collected. These cases were used for training (calibrating) and testing the FNN model. The performance of the FNN model was compared with the original results produced by the prequalifiers and those generated by the general feedforward neural network (GFNN, i.e. a crisp neural network) approach. Contractor’s ranking orders, the model efficiency (R2) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were examined during the testing phase. These results indicate the applicability of the neural network approach for contractor prequalification and the benefits of the FNN model over the GFNN model. The FNN is a practical approach for modelling contractor prequalification.

A critical regionalist approach to housing design in Vietnam : socio-environmental organisation of living spaces in pre- and post-reform houses

Vietnam has a unique culture which is revealed in the way that people have built and designed their traditional housing. Vietnamese dwellings reflect occupants’ activities in their everyday lives, while adapting to tropical climatic conditions impacted by seasoning monsoons. It is said that these characteristics of Vietnamese dwellings have remained unchanged until the economic reform in 1986, when Vietnam experienced an accelerated development based on the market-oriented economy. New housing types, including modern shop-houses, detached houses, and apartments, have been designed in many places, especially satisfying dwellers’ new lifestyles in Vietnamese cities. The contemporary housing, which has been mostly designed by architects, has reflected rules of spatial organisation so that occupants’ social activities are carried out. However, contemporary housing spaces seem unsustainable in relation to socio-cultural values because they has been influenced by globalism that advocates the use of homogeneous spatial patterns, modern technologies, materials and construction methods. This study investigates the rules of spaces in Vietnamese houses that were built before and after the reform to define the socio-cultural implications in Vietnamese housing design. Firstly, it describes occupants’ views of their current dwellings in terms of indoor comfort conditions and social activities in spaces. Then, it examines the use of spaces in pre-reform Vietnamese housing through occupants’ activities and material applications. Finally, it discusses the organisation of spaces in both pre- and post-reform housing to understand how Vietnamese housing has been designed for occupants to live, act, work, and conduct traditional activities. Understanding spatial organisation is a way to identify characteristics of the lived spaces of the occupants created from the conceived space, which is designed by designers. The characteristics of the housing spaces will inform the designers the way to design future Vietnamese housing in response to cultural contexts. The study applied an abductive approach for the investigation of housing spaces. It used a conceptual framework in relation to Henri Lefebvre’s (1991) theory to understand space as the main factor constituting the language of design, and the principles of semiotics to examine spatial structure in housing as a language used in the everyday life. The study involved a door-knocking survey to 350 households in four regional cities of Vietnam for interpretation of occupancy conditions and levels of occupants’ comfort. A statistical analysis was applied to interpret the survey data. The study also required a process of data selection and collection of fourteen cases of housing in three main climatic regions of the country for analysing spatial organisation and housing characteristics. The study found that there has been a shift in the relationship of spaces from the pre- to post-reform Vietnamese housing. It also indentified that the space for guest welcoming and family activity has been the central space of the Vietnamese housing. Based on the relationships of the central space with the others, theoretical models were proposed for three types of contemporary Vietnamese housing. The models will be significant in adapting to Vietnamese conditions to achieve socioenvironmental characteristics for housing design because it was developed from the occupants’ requirements for their social activities. Another contribution of the study is the use of methodological concepts to understand the language of living spaces. Further work will be needed to test future Vietnamese housing designs from the applications of the models.

Anisotropic damage mechanics as a novel approach to improve pre-and post-failure borehole stability analysis

Anisotropic damage distribution and evolution have a profound effect on borehole stress concentrations. Damage evolution is an irreversible process that is not adequately described within classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Therefore, we propose a constitutive model, based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics, that accounts for anisotropic damage distribution, anisotropic damage threshold and anisotropic damage evolution. We implemented this constitutive model numerically, using the finite element method, to calculate stress–strain curves and borehole stresses. The resulting stress–strain curves are distinctively different from linear elastic-brittle and linear elastic-ideal plastic constitutive models and realistically model experimental responses of brittle rocks. We show that the onset of damage evolution leads to an inhomogeneous redistribution of material properties and stresses along the borehole wall. The classical linear elastic-brittle approach to borehole stability analysis systematically overestimates the stress concentrations on the borehole wall, because dissipative strain-softening is underestimated. The proposed damage mechanics approach explicitly models dissipative behaviour and leads to non-conservative mud window estimations. Furthermore, anisotropic rocks with preferential planes of failure, like shales, can be addressed with our model.

Preparing pre-service teachers to teach primary science : an integrated approach using the theme of sustainability

An integrated approach to assessment afforded pre-service teachers the opportunity to learn about a local sustainability issue through three learning areas: science and technology,the arts and studies of society and environment (SOSE). Three sustainability issues chosen by the pre-service teachers are presented in this paper highlighting the science concepts explored. Affordances and constraints of the integrated task are discussed in the conclusion.

Nonlinear analysis for the pre- and post-yield behaviour of a hybrid structure by a higher-order element with the refined plastic hinge approach

Efficient and accurate geometric and material nonlinear analysis of the structures under ultimate loads is a backbone to the success of integrated analysis and design, performance-based design approach and progressive collapse analysis. This paper presents the advanced computational technique of a higher-order element formulation with the refined plastic hinge approach which can evaluate the concrete and steel-concrete structure prone to the nonlinear material effects (i.e. gradual yielding, full plasticity, strain-hardening effect when subjected to the interaction between axial and bending actions, and load redistribution) as well as the nonlinear geometric effects (i.e. second-order P-d effect and P-D effect, its associate strength and stiffness degradation). Further, this paper also presents the cross-section analysis useful to formulate the refined plastic hinge approach.

Pre-operative nutritional support in children with end-stage liver disease accepted for liver transplantation: An approach to management

Pre-operative nutritional support was studied in 28 children with end-stage liver disease awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation. Nasogastric supplemental administration of a standard semi-elemental enteral nutritional formula was compared with a similar formula enriched with branched chain amino acids, and with a group receiving oral nutrition only. The duration of treatment in all groups was similar (mean 90 days). Energy intakes in the supplemented groups were 120-150% of recommended daily intakes (RDI), whereas ad libitum intakes in the oral group ranged 58-100% RDI. A significant improvement in mean Z-score for body weight (denoting catch-up) was noted only in those children who received nasogastric supplements enriched with branched-chain amino acids. The standard enterally-fed group maintained their body weight and Z-scores did not change significantly. In contrast, body weight Z-scores in those fed orally declined significantly. Nutritional supportive therapy of malnourished children with end-stage liver disease can minimize or improve nutritional status in children awaiting liver transplantation. The use of nutritional formulae rich in branche-chain amino acids may have nutritional advantages in children with chronic liver disease which require further study and evaluation.

Nonlinear analysis for the pre- and post-yield behaviour of a composite structure with the refined plastic hinge approach

The computational technique of the full ranges of the second-order inelastic behaviour evaluation of steel-concrete composite structure is not always sought forgivingly, and therefore it hinders the development and application of the performance-based design approach for the composite structure. To this end, this paper addresses of the advanced computational technique of the higher-order element with the refined plastic hinges to capture the all-ranges behaviour of an entire steel-concrete composite structure. Moreover, this paper presents the efficient and economical cross-section analysis to evaluate the element section capacity of the non-uniform and arbitrary composite section subjected to the axial and bending interaction. Based on the same single algorithm, it can accurately and effectively evaluate nearly continuous interaction capacity curve from decompression to pure bending technically, which is the important capacity range but highly nonlinear. Hence, this cross-section analysis provides the simple but unique algorithm for the design approach. In summary, the present nonlinear computational technique can simulate both material and geometric nonlinearities of the composite structure in the accurate, efficient and reliable fashion, including partial shear connection and gradual yielding at pre-yield stage, plasticity and strain-hardening effect due to axial and bending interaction at post-yield stage, loading redistribution, second-order P-δ and P-Δ effect, and also the stiffness and strength deterioration. And because of its reliable and accurate behavioural evaluation, the present technique can be extended for the design of the high-strength composite structure and potentially for the fibre-reinforced concrete structure.

Supporting pre-tender construction planning with virtual prototyping

Purpose – Virtual prototyping technologies linked to building information models are commonplace within the aeronautical and automotive industries. Their use within the construction industry is now emerging. The purpose of this paper is to show how these technologies have been adopted on the pre-tender planning for a typical construction project. Design/methodology/approach – The research methodology taken was an “action research” approach where the researchers and developers were actively involved in the production of the virtual prototypes on behalf of the contractor thereby gaining consistent access to the decisions of the planning staff. The experiences from the case study were considered together with similar research on other construction projects. Findings – The findings from the case studies identify the role of virtual prototyping in components modelling, site modelling, construction equipment modelling, temporary works modelling, construction method visualization and method verification processes. Originality/value – The paper presents a state-of-the-art review and discusses the implications for the tendering process as these technologies are adopted. The adoption of the technologies will lead to new protocols and changes in the procurement of buildings and infrastructure.

Taking a 'reality' check : expanding pre-service teachers' views on pedagogy and diversity

The outcomes of a two-pronged 'real-world' learning project, which aimed to expand the views of pre-service teachers about learning, pedagogy and diversity, will be discussed in this paper. Seventy-two fourth-year and 22 first-year students, enrolled in a Bachelor of Education degree in Queensland, Australia, were engaged in community sites outside of university lectures, and separate from their practicum. Using Butin's conceptual framework for service learning, we show evidence that this approach can enable pre-service teachers to see new realities about the dilemmas and ambiguities of performing as learners and as teachers. We contend that when such 'real-world' experiences have different foci at different times in their four-year degree, pre-service teachers have more opportunities to develop sophisticated understandings of pedagogy in diverse contexts for diverse learners.

Teacher educators embrace philosophy: reflections on a new way of looking at preparing pre-service teachers

Over the last decade in Australia, the role of the teacher has changed. Teachers are now expected to model and foster in their students a wide range of skills such as critical thinking, self-regulated learning, knowledge of self and others and lifelong learning. These changes are having a significant impact on the design of pre-service teacher education programmes, with university educators re-evaluating the teacher training curriculum and embedded pedagogical processes in order to consider how they might develop these skills in pre-service teachers. One approach is to consider the processes and practices inherent in philosophical inquiry. This paper reports on three participants’ reflections of a 12-week philosophy programme that was conducted for teacher educators at Queensland’s University of Technology (QUT) in 2008. The programme was facilitated by teachers from Buranda State School who have been teaching philosophy in their P-7 school for more than ten years. This paper provides insight into teacher educators’ reflections on the philosophy programme and the associated changes and challenges of implementing such a programme in pre-service teacher education degrees.

Mainstreaming sustainability into pre-service teacher edcuation in Australia

There is a growing interest in and support for education for sustainability in Australian schools. Australian Government schemes such as the Australian Sustainable Schools Initiative (AuSSI), along with strategies such as Educating for a Sustainable Future: A National Environmental Education Statement for Australian Schools(NEES(Australian Government and Curriculum Corporation (2005) and Living Sustainably: The Australian Government’s National Action Plan for Education for Sustainability (Australian Government 2009), recognise the need and offer support for education for sustainability in Australian schools. The number of schools that have engaged with AuSSI indicates that this interest also exists within Australian schools. Despite this, recent research indicates that pre-service teacher education institutions and programs are not doing all they can to prepare teachers for teaching education for sustainability or for working within sustainable schools. The education of school teachers plays a vital role in achieving changes in teaching and learning in schools. Indeed, the professional development of teachers in education for sustainability has been identified as ‘the priority of priorities’. Much has been written about the need to ‘reorient teacher education towards sustainability’. Teacher education is seen as a key strategy that is yet to be effectively utilised to embed education for sustainability in schools. Mainstreaming sustainability in Australian schools will not be achieved without the preparation of teachers for this task. The Mainstreaming Sustainability model piloted in this study seeks to engage a range of stakeholder organisations and key agents of change within a system to all work simultaneously to bring about a change, such as the mainstreaming of sustainability. The model is premised on the understanding that sustainability will be mainstreamed within teacher education if there is engagement with key agents of change across the wider teacher education system and if the key agents of change are ‘deeply’ involved in making the change. The model thus seeks to marry broad engagement across a system with the active participation of stakeholders within that system. Such a systemic approach is a way of bringing together diverse viewpoints to make sense of an issue and harness that shared interpretation to define boundaries, roles and relationships leading to a better defined problem that can be acted upon more effectively. Like action research, the systemic approach is also concerned with modelling change and seeking plausible solutions through collaboration between stakeholders. This is important in ensuring that outcomes are useful to the researchers/stakeholders and the system being researched as it creates partnerships and commitments to the outcomes by stakeholder participants. The study reported on here examines whether the ‘Mainstreaming Sustainability’ model might be effective as a means to mainstream sustainability in pre-service teacher education. This model, developed in an earlier study, was piloted in the Queensland teacher education system in order to examine its effectiveness in creating organisational and systemic change. The pilot project in Queensland achieved a number of outcomes. The project: • provided useful insights into the effectiveness of the Mainstreaming Sustainability model in bringing about change while also building research capacity within the system • developed capacities within the teacher education community: o developing competencies in education for sustainability o establishing more effective interactions between decision-makers and other stakeholders o establishing a community of inquiry • changed teaching and learning approaches used in participating teacher education institutions through: o curriculum and resource development o the adoption of education for sustainability teaching and learning processes o the development of institutional policies • improved networks within the teacher education system through: o identifying key agents of change within the system o developing new, and building on existing, partnerships between schools, teacher education institutions and government agencies • engaged relevant stakeholders such as government agencies and non-government organisations to understand and support the change Our findings indicate that the Mainstreaming Sustainability model is able to facilitate organisational and systemic change – over time – if: • the individuals involved have the conceptual and personal capacities needed to facilitate change, that is, to be a key agent of change • stakeholders are engaged as participants in the process of change, not simply as ‘interested parties’ • there is a good understanding of systemic change and the opportunities for leveraging change within systems. In particular, in seeking to mainstream sustainability in pre-service teacher education in Queensland it has become clear that one needs to build capacity for change within participants such as knowledge of education for sustainability, conceptual skills in systemic thinking, action research and organisational change, and leadership skills. It is also of vital importance that key agents of change – those individuals who are ‘hubs’ within a system and can leverage for change across a wide range of the system – are identified and engaged with as early as possible. Key agents of change can only be correctly identified, however, if the project leaders and known participants have clearly identified the boundary to their system as this enables the system, sub-system and environment of the system to be understood. Through mapping the system a range of key organisations and stakeholders will be identified, including government and nongovernment organisations, teacher education students, teacher education academics, and so on. On this basis, key agents of change within the system and sub-system can be identified and invited to assist in working for change. A final insight is that it is important to have time – and if necessary the funding to ‘buy time’ – in seeking to bring about system-wide change. Seeking to bring about system-wide change is an ambitious project, one that requires a great deal of effort and time. These insights provide some considerations for those seeking to utilise the Mainstreaming Sustainability model to bring about change within and across a pre-service teacher education system.