Characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with hallux valgus : a systematic review

Objective Factors associated with the development of hallux valgus (HV) are multifactorial and remain unclear. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with HV. Design Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and CINAHL) were searched to December 2010. Cross-sectional studies with a valid definition of HV and a non-HV comparison group were included. Two independent investigators quality rated all included papers. Effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated (standardized mean differences (SMDs) for continuous data and risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous data). Where studies were homogeneous, pooling of SMDs was conducted using random effects models. Results A total of 37 papers (34 unique studies) were quality rated. After exclusion of studies without reported measurement reliability for associated factors, data were extracted and analysed from 16 studies reporting results for 45 different factors. Significant factors included: greater first intermetatarsal angle (pooled SMD = 1.5, CI: 0.88–2.1), longer first metatarsal (pooled SMD = 1.0, CI: 0.48–1.6), round first metatarsal head (RR: 3.1–5.4), and lateral sesamoid displacement (RR: 5.1–5.5). Results for clinical factors (e.g., first ray mobility, pes planus, footwear) were less conclusive regarding their association with HV. Conclusions Although conclusions regarding causality cannot be made from cross-sectional studies, this systematic review highlights important factors to monitor in HV assessment and management. Further studies with rigorous methodology are warranted to investigate clinical factors associated with HV.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

The role of immunoglobulins and their transporters in urogenital Chlamydial infections

Chlamydia trachomatis infections of the male and female reproductive tracts are the world's leading sexually transmitted bacterial disease, and can lead to damaging pathology, scarring and infertility. The resolution of chlamydial infection requires the development of adaptive immune responses to infection, and includes cell-mediated and humoral immunity. Whilst cluster of differentiation (CD)4+ T cells are known to be essential in clearance of infection [1], they are also associated with immune cell infiltration, autoimmunity and infertility in the testes [2-3]. Conversely, antibodies are less associated with inflammation, are readily transported into the reproductive tracts, and can offer lumenal neutralization of chlamydiae prior to infection. Antibodies, or immunoglobulins (Ig), play a supportive role in the resolution of chlamydial infections, and this thesis sought to define the function of IgA and IgG, against a variety of chlamydial antigens expressed during the intracellular and extracellular stages of the chlamydial developmental cycle. Transport of IgA and IgG into the mucosal lumen is facilitated by receptor-mediated transcytosis yet the expression profile (under normal conditions and during urogenital chlamydial infection) of the polymeric immunoglobulin receptor (pIgR) and the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) remains unknown. The expression profile of pIgR and FcRn in the murine male reproductive tract was found to be polarized to the lower and upper reproductive tract tissues respectively. This demonstrates that the two receptors have a tissue tropism, which must be considered when targeting pathogens that colonize different sites. In contrast, the expression of pIgR and FcRn in the female mouse was found to be distributed in both the upper and lower reproductive tracts. When urogenitally infected with Chlamydia muridarum, both male and female reproductive tracts up-regulated expression of pIgR and down-regulated expression of FcRn. Unsurprisingly, the up-regulation of pIgR increased the concentration of IgA in the lumen. However, down-regulation of FcRn, prevented IgG uptake and led to an increase or pooling of IgG in lumenal secretions. As previous studies have identified the importance of pIgR-mediated delivery of IgA, as well as the potential of IgA to bind and neutralize intracellular pathogens, IgA against a variety of chlamydial antigens was investigated. The protection afforded by IgA against the extracellular antigen major outer membrane protein (MOMP), was found to be dependent on pIgR expression in vitro and in vivo. It was also found that in the absence of pIgR, no protection was afforded to mice previously immunized with MOMP. The protection afforded from polyclonal IgA against the intracellular chlamydial antigens; inclusion membrane protein A (IncA), inclusion membrane proteins (IncMem) and secreted chlamydial protease-like activity factor (CPAF) were produced and investigated in vitro. Antigen-specific intracellular IgA was found to bind to the respective antigen within the infected cell, but did not significantly reduce inclusion formation (p > 0.05). This suggests that whilst IgA specific for the selected antigens was transported by pIgR to the chlamydial inclusion, it was unable to prevent growth. Similarly, immunization of male mice with intracellular chlamydial antigens (IncA or IncMem), followed by depletion CD4+ T cells, and subsequent urogenital C. muridarum challenge, provided minimal pIgR-mediated protection. Wild type male mice immunized with IncA showed a 57 % reduction (p < 0.05), and mice deficient in pIgR showed a 35 % reduction (p < 0.05) in reproductive tract chlamydial burden compared to control antigen, and in the absence of CD4+ T cells. This suggests that pIgR and secretory IgA (SIgA) were playing a protective role (21 % pIgR-mediated) in unison with another antigen-specific immune mechanism (36 %). Interestingly, IgA generated during a primary respiratory C. muridarum infection did not provide a significant amount of protection to secondary urogenital C. muridarum challenge. Together, these data suggest that IgA specific for an extracellular antigen (MOMP) can play a strong protective role in chlamydial infections, and that IgA targeting intracellular antigens is also effective but dependent on pIgR expression in tissues. However, whilst not investigated here, IgA targeting and blocking other intracellular chlamydial antigens, that are more essential for replication or type III secretion, may be more efficacious in subunit vaccines. Recently, studies have demonstrated that IgG can neutralize influenza virus by trafficking IgG-bound virus to lysosomes [4]. We sought to determine if this process could also traffic chlamydial antigens for degradation by lysosomes, despite Chlamydia spp. actively inhibiting fusion with the host endocytic pathway. As observed in pIgR-mediated delivery of anti-IncA IgA, FcRn similarly transported IgG specific for IncA which bound the inclusion membrane. Interestingly, FcRn-mediated delivery of anti-IncA IgG significantly decreased inclusion formation by 36 % (p < 0.01), and induced aberrant inclusion morphology. This suggests that unlike IgA, IgG can facilitate additional host cellular responses which affect the intracellular niche of chlamydial growth. Fluorescence microscopy revealed that IgG also bound the inclusion, but unlike influenza studies, did not induce the recruitment of lysosomes. Notably, anti-IncA IgG recruited sequestosomes to the inclusion membrane, markers of the ubiquitin/proteasome pathway and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I loading. To determine if the protection against C. muridarum infection afforded by IncA IgG in vitro translated in vivo, wild type mice and mice deficient in functional FcRn and MHC-I, were immunized, depleted of CD4+, and urogenitally infected with C. muridarum. Unlike in pIgR-deficient mice, the protection afforded from IncA immunization was completely abrogated in mice lacking functional FcRn and MHC-I/CD8+. Thus, both anti-IncA IgA and IgG can bind the inclusion in a pIgR and FcRn-mediated manner, respectively. However, only IgG mediates a higher reduction in chlamydial infection in vitro and in vivo suggesting more than steric blocking of IncA had occurred. Unlike anti-MOMP IgA, which reduced chlamydial infection of epithelial cells and male mouse tissues, IgG was found to enhance infectivity in vitro, and in vivo. Opsonization of EBs with MOMP-IgG enhanced inclusion formation of epithelial cells in a MOMP-IgG dose-dependent and FcRn-dependent manner. When MOMP-IgG opsonized EBs were inoculated into the vagina of female mice, a small but non-significant (p > 0.05) enhancement of cervicovaginal C. muridarum shedding was observed three days post infection in mice with functional FcRn. Interestingly, infection with opsonized EBs reduced the intensity of the peak of infection (day six) but protracted the duration of infection by 60 % in wild type mice only. Infection with EBs opsonized in IgG also significantly increased (p < 0.05) hydrosalpinx formation in the oviducts and induced lymphocyte infiltration uterine horns. As MOMP is an immunodominant antigen, and is widely used in vaccines, the ability of IgG specific to extracellular chlamydial antigens to enhance infection and induce pathology needs to be considered. Together, these data suggest that immunoglobulins play a dichotomous role in chlamydial infections, and are dependent on antigen specificity, FcRn and pIgR expression. FcRn was found to be highly expressed in upper male reproductive tract, whilst pIgR was dominantly expressed in the lower reproductive tract. Conversely, female mice expressed FcRn and pIgR in both the lower and upper reproductive tracts. In response to a normal chlamydial infection, pIgR is up-regulated increasing secretory IgA release, but FcRn is down-regulated preventing IgG uptake. Similarly to other studies [5-6], we demonstrate that IgA and IgG generated during primary chlamydial infections plays a minor role in recall immunity, and that antigen-specific subunit vaccines can offer more protection. We also show that both IgA and IgG can be used to target intracellular chlamydial antigens, but that IgG is more effective. Finally, IgA against the extracellular antigen MOMP can afford protection, whist IgG plays a deleterious role by increasing infectivity and inducing damaging immunopathology. Further investigations with additional antigens or combination subunit vaccines will enhance our understanding the protection afforded by antibodies against intracellular and extracellular pathogenic antigens, and help improve the development of an efficacious chlamydial vaccine.

Pooled biological specimens for human biomonitoring of environmental chemicals : opportunities and limitations

Biomonitoring has become the ‘gold standard’ in assessing chemical exposures, and plays an important role in risk assessment. The pooling of biological specimens – combining multiple individual specimens into a single sample – can be used in biomonitoring studies to monitor levels of exposure and identify exposure trends, or to identify susceptible populations in a cost-effective manner. Pooled samples provide an estimate of central tendency, and may also reveal information about variation within the population. The development of a pooling strategy requires careful consideration of the type and number of samples collected, the number of pools required, and the number of specimens to combine per pool in order to maximize the type and robustness of the data. Creative pooling strategies can be used to explore exposure-outcome associations, and extrapolation from other larger studies can be useful in identifying elevated exposures in specific individuals. The use of pooled specimens is advantageous as it saves significantly on analytical costs, may reduce the time and resources required for recruitment, and in certain circumstances, allows quantification of samples approaching the limit of detection. In addition, use of pooled samples can provide population estimates while avoiding ethical difficulties that may be associated with reporting individual results.

Early post-operative mortality after major lower limb amputation: A systematic review of population and regional based studies

OBJECTIVE: Lower limb amputation is often associated with a high risk of early post-operative mortality. Mortality rates are also increasingly being put forward as a possible benchmark for surgical performance. The primary aim of this systematic review is to investigate early post-operative mortality following a major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies, and reported factors that might influence these mortality outcomes. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, Cinahl and Psycinfo were searched for publications in any language on 30 day or in hospital mortality after major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies. PRISMA guidelines were followed. A self developed checklist was used to assess quality and susceptibility to bias. Summary data were extracted for the percentage of the population who died; pooling of quantitative results was not possible because of methodological differences between studies. RESULTS: Of the 9,082 publications identified, results were included from 21. The percentage of the population undergoing amputation who died within 30 days ranged from 7% to 22%, the in hospital equivalent was 4-20%. Transfemoral amputation and older age were found to have a higher proportion of early post-operative mortality, compared with transtibial and younger age, respectively. Other patient factors or surgical treatment choices related to increased early post-operative mortality varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early post-operative mortality rates vary from 4% to 22%. There are very limited data presented for patient related factors (age, comorbidities) that influence mortality. Even less is known about factors related to surgical treatment choices, being limited to amputation level. More information is needed to allow comparison across studies or for any benchmarking of acceptable mortality rates. Agreement is needed on key factors to be reported.

RcppArmadillo : accelerating R with high-performance C++ linear algebra

The R statistical environment and language has demonstrated particular strengths for interactive development of statistical algorithms, as well as data modelling and visualisation. Its current implementation has an interpreter at its core which may result in a performance penalty in comparison to directly executing user algorithms in the native machine code of the host CPU. In contrast, the C++ language has no built-in visualisation capabilities, handling of linear algebra or even basic statistical algorithms; however, user programs are converted to high-performance machine code, ahead of execution. A new method avoids possible speed penalties in R by using the Rcpp extension package in conjunction with the Armadillo C++ matrix library. In addition to the inherent performance advantages of compiled code, Armadillo provides an easy-to-use template-based meta-programming framework, allowing the automatic pooling of several linear algebra operations into one, which in turn can lead to further speedups. With the aid of Rcpp and Armadillo, conversion of linear algebra centered algorithms from R to C++ becomes straightforward. The algorithms retains the overall structure as well as readability, all while maintaining a bidirectional link with the host R environment. Empirical timing comparisons of R and C++ implementations of a Kalman filtering algorithm indicate a speedup of several orders of magnitude.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Airborne culturable fungi in naturally ventilated primary school environments in a subtropical climate

There is currently a lack of reference values for indoor air fungal concentrations to allow for the interpretation of measurement results in subtropical school settings. Analysis of the results of this work established that, in the majority of properly maintained subtropical school buildings, without any major affecting events such as floods or visible mould or moisture contamination, indoor culturable fungi levels were driven by outdoor concentration. The results also allowed us to benchmark the “baseline range” concentrations for total culturable fungi, Penicillium spp., Cladosporium spp. and Aspergillus spp. in such school settings. The measured concentration of total culturable fungi and three individual fungal genera were estimated using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Pooling of these estimates provided a predictive distribution for concentrations at an unobserved school. The results indicated that “baseline” indoor concentration levels for indoor total fungi, Penicillium spp., Cladosporium spp. and Aspergillus spp. in such school settings were generally ≤ 1450, ≤ 680, ≤ 480 and ≤ 90 cfu/m3, respectively, and elevated levels would indicate mould damage in building structures. The indoor/outdoor ratio for most classrooms had 95% credible intervals containing 1, indicating that fungi concentrations are generally the same indoors and outdoors at each school. Bayesian fixed effects regression modeling showed that increasing both temperature and humidity resulted in higher levels of fungi concentration.

The effect of national governance codes on firm disclosure practices : evidence from analyst earnings forecasts

This study examines whether voluntary national governance codes have a significant effect on company disclosure practices. Two direct effects of the codes are expected: 1) an overall improvement in company disclosure practices, which is greater when the codes have a greater emphasis on disclosure; and 2) a leveling out of disclosure practices across companies (i.e., larger improvements in companies that were previously poorer disclosers) due to the codes new comply-or-explain requirements. The codes are also expected to have an indirect effect on disclosure practices through their effect on company governance practices. The results show that the introduction of the codes in eight East Asian countries has been associated with lower analyst forecast error and a leveling out of disclosure practices across companies. The codes are also found to have an indirect effect on company disclosure practices through their effect on board independence. This study shows that a regulatory approach to improving disclosure practices is not always necessary. Voluntary national governance codes are found to have both a significant direct effect and a significant indirect effect on company disclosure practices. In addition, the results indicate that analysts in Asia do react to changes in disclosure practices, so there is an incentive for small companies and family-owned companies to further improve their disclosure practices.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Impact of the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program Act 1999 on initial public offering prospectus earnings forecasts

Commencing 13 March 2000, the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program Act 1999 (Cth) introduced changes to the regulation of corporate fundraising in Australia. In particular, it effected a reduction in the litigation risk associated with initial public offering prospectus disclosure.We find that the change is associated with a reduction in forecast frequency and an increase in forecast value relevance, but not with forecast error or bias. These results confirm previous findings that changes in litigation risk affect the level but not the quality of disclosure. They also suggest that the reforms’ objectives of reducing fundraising costs while improving investor protection, have been achieved.

On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.