Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Contemporary New Zealand coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score: TRISS(NZ)

Aims – To develop local contemporary coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score in New Zealand, TRISS(NZ), and to evaluate their performance at predicting survival against the original TRISS coefficients. Methods – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until presentation at Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Coefficients were estimated using ordinary and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results – 1735 eligible patients were identified, 1672 (96%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 63 (4%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1250 (75%) were male and average age was 38 years (range: 15-94 years). TRISS information was available for 1565 patients of whom 204 (13%) died. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.901 (95%CI: 0.879-0.923) for the TRISS(NZ) model and 0.890 (95% CI: 0.866-0.913) for TRISS (P<0.001). Insufficient data were available to determine coefficients for penetrating mechanism TRISS(NZ) models. Conclusions – Both TRISS models accurately predicted survival for blunt mechanism trauma. However, TRISS(NZ) coefficients were statistically superior to TRISS coefficients. A strong case exists for replacing TRISS coefficients in the New Zealand benchmarking software with these updated TRISS(NZ) estimates.

Tackling the burden of injury in Australasia : developing a binational trauma registry

Existing trauma registries in Australia and New Zealand play an important role in monitoring the management of injured patients. Over the past decade, such monitoring has been translated into changes in clinical processes and practices. Monitoring and changes have been ad hoc, as there are currently no Australasian benchmarks for “optimal” injury management. A binational trauma registry is urgently needed to benchmark injury management to improve outcomes for injured patients.

Golf can be dangerous : be forewarned!

In Pollard v Trude [2008] QSC 119 (20 May 2008) the plaintiff claimed for personal injuries suffered when he was struck by a golf ball during the course of a tournament. The plaintiff was a member of a group of four, playing in a two-day tournament at Indooroopilly Golf Club. All four players had teed off at the second hole of the course and when the defendant took his second shot; his ball struck one of the trees bordering the fairway and deflected, hitting the plaintiff who was waiting to take his third stroke. As the ball was in flight, the defendant had called out "Watch out Errol", or words to that effect, to the plaintiff. The plaintiff suffered injury to his eye, leaving his vision impaired. The plaintiff sued in negligence, alleging that by failing to shout "fore" as is traditionally done in golf, the defendant had failed to warn the appellant and this was a breach of their duty. The claim in negligence was dismissed by the Queensland Supreme Court, holding that there had been no breach of the duty.

Shifting : one-inclusion mistake bounds and sample compression

We present new expected risk bounds for binary and multiclass prediction, and resolve several recent conjectures on sample compressibility due to Kuzmin and Warmuth. By exploiting the combinatorial structure of concept class F, Haussler et al. achieved a VC(F)/n bound for the natural one-inclusion prediction strategy. The key step in their proof is a d = VC(F) bound on the graph density of a subgraph of the hypercube—oneinclusion graph. The first main result of this paper is a density bound of n [n−1 <=d-1]/[n <=d] < d, which positively resolves a conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth relating to their unlabeled Peeling compression scheme and also leads to an improved one-inclusion mistake bound. The proof uses a new form of VC-invariant shifting and a group-theoretic symmetrization. Our second main result is an algebraic topological property of maximum classes of VC-dimension d as being d contractible simplicial complexes, extending the well-known characterization that d = 1 maximum classes are trees. We negatively resolve a minimum degree conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth—the second part to a conjectured proof of correctness for Peeling—that every class has one-inclusion minimum degree at most its VCdimension. Our final main result is a k-class analogue of the d/n mistake bound, replacing the VC-dimension by the Pollard pseudo-dimension and the one-inclusion strategy by its natural hypergraph generalization. This result improves on known PAC-based expected risk bounds by a factor of O(logn) and is shown to be optimal up to an O(logk) factor. The combinatorial technique of shifting takes a central role in understanding the one-inclusion (hyper)graph and is a running theme throughout.

Shifting : one-inclusion mistake bounds and sample compression

We present new expected risk bounds for binary and multiclass prediction, and resolve several recent conjectures on sample compressibility due to Kuzmin and Warmuth. By exploiting the combinatorial structure of concept class F, Haussler et al. achieved a VC(F)/n bound for the natural one-inclusion prediction strategy. The key step in their proof is a d=VC(F) bound on the graph density of a subgraph of the hypercube—one-inclusion graph. The first main result of this report is a density bound of n∙choose(n-1,≤d-1)/choose(n,≤d) < d, which positively resolves a conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth relating to their unlabeled Peeling compression scheme and also leads to an improved one-inclusion mistake bound. The proof uses a new form of VC-invariant shifting and a group-theoretic symmetrization. Our second main result is an algebraic topological property of maximum classes of VC-dimension d as being d-contractible simplicial complexes, extending the well-known characterization that d=1 maximum classes are trees. We negatively resolve a minimum degree conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth—the second part to a conjectured proof of correctness for Peeling—that every class has one-inclusion minimum degree at most its VC-dimension. Our final main result is a k-class analogue of the d/n mistake bound, replacing the VC-dimension by the Pollard pseudo-dimension and the one-inclusion strategy by its natural hypergraph generalization. This result improves on known PAC-based expected risk bounds by a factor of O(log n) and is shown to be optimal up to a O(log k) factor. The combinatorial technique of shifting takes a central role in understanding the one-inclusion (hyper)graph and is a running theme throughout

Heroes & harmony

The first practice-led research project 'Heroes of the Club', through collaboration with business and community, involved portraying the stories on canvas of heroes of the Australian Surf Life Saving movement. The second project 'Crossing the intersection… art and life' researched a post-modernist approach to a fusion of the aesthetics of Abstract Expressionism and Pop Art. This study resulted in a body of work 'Long Playing' which sought to harmoniously reconcile two apparent polarities of style and context between high and low art characteristics, through personal narrative and with reference to artistic tradition.

Online environmental citizenship : blogs, green marketing and consumer sentiment in the 21st Century

Over the last three decades, the rise in consumer generated content has enabled more environmentally conscious points of view to effect mainstream opinion (Kalafatis, Pollard, East & Tsogas, 1999; Barber, Taylor & Strick, 2009). Consequently, more people are buying into environmentalist ideology and organizing themselves to influence social change. Focus has shifted from attracting public awareness to concern for green ideas, discourse, and environmental citizenship, the latter becoming the guideline by which debates on such topics are regulated (Follows & Jobber, 2000; Dobson, 2003).

The lost boys : creating appealing and engaging fiction for adolescent male reluctant readers & Duende a young adult novella

Reading plays an important role in establishing lifelong learning and providing the reader with an avenue to new experiences and a language with which to express their ideas and feelings (Owen 2003; Hamston & Love 2005). In particular adolescents need a language that allows them to 'play with their identities in a safe and controlled manner to explore who they want to be in this ever changing world' (Koss & Teale 2009, 569). Block (1995) advances that there is a distinct correlation between what we read and how we live in the world, and argues 'if what we read influences our identity in the world, the ways we are able to imagine and live in the world, then there is some responsibility to address these various texts, their readers and possible reading experiences' (Koss & Teale 2009, 569). Within my research I attempt to take on this responsibility by establishing a connection between reluctant adolescent male readers, and their reading experiences and by using their opinions to create a novella that seeks to more fully engage them. Centred within the larger debate about boys and books are two central discussions: why don't boys read and what should boys read? While a number of reasons why adolescent boys don't read are mentioned in this paper and it might not be possible to fully account for why many are reluctant readers, it is possible to argue that specific forms of literature addressing certain themes and topics relevant to the age group might appeal to reluctant readers. The conceptual framework for this research was structured using a mixed-method approach consisting of four phases. In positioning my research for determining literature that reluctant readers may want to read I draw on a variety of material which tends to support the longevity of S.E Hinton's (1967) argument that 'teenagers today, want to read about teenagers today' (cited in Smith & Wilhelm 2002, 6). My practice-based research was conducted within a high school in Brisbane, Australia. Six participants were selected and required to read three recently published Australian Young Adult novels, and opinion was collected via semi-structured interviews on these case studies. Grounded Theory (Charmaz 2003; Charmaz 2006; Glaser & Strauss 2011) informed the design of the questions, and the process of concurrent interviews and analysis of opinion. This analysis led to construction of my theory: adolescent male reluctant readers want to read about female relationships and family conflict within a story that consists of an adventure that, although unlikely to happen, could happen. From this study there are two main contributions, which have theoretical and practical implications for stakeholders with a vested interest in the discussion regarding boys and books. First, this study, through the research methodology, presents key findings that indicate that reluctant readers are interested in realistic texts addressing themes that will help with the construction of, and understanding of, their own lives. Secondly, the grounded theory derived from these findings is applied to my own praxis and my creative artefact (Duende) is included with this exegesis as a text intended to create a connection between engaging texts and adolescent male reluctant readers.