Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

In situ preparation and protein delivery of silicate/alginate composite microspheres with core-shell structure

It is predicted that with increased life expectancy in the developed world, there will be a greater demand for synthetic materials to repair or regenerate lost, injured or diseased bone (Hench & Thompson 2010). There are still few synthetic materials having true bone inductivity, which limits their application for bone regeneration, especially in large-size bone defects. To solve this problem, growth factors, such as bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs), have been incorporated into synthetic materials in order to stimulate de novo bone formation in the center of large-size bone defects. The greatest obstacle with this approach is that the rapid diffusion of the protein from the carrier material, leading to a precipitous loss of bioactivity; the result is often insufficient local induction or failure of bone regeneration (Wei et al. 2007). It is critical that the protein is loaded in the carrier material in conditions which maintains its bioactivity (van de Manakker et al. 2009). For this reason, the efficient loading and controlled release of a protein from a synthetic material has remained a significant challenge. The use of microspheres as protein/drug carriers has received considerable attention in recent years (Lee et al. 2010; Pareta & Edirisinghe 2006; Wu & Zreiqat 2010). Compared to macroporous block scaffolds, the chief advantage of microspheres is their superior protein-delivery properties and ability to fill bone defects with irregular and complex shapes and sizes. Upon implantation, the microspheres are easily conformed to the irregular implant site, and the interstices between the particles provide space for both tissue and vascular ingrowth, which are important for effective and functional bone regeneration (Hsu et al. 1999). Alginates are natural polysaccharides and their production does not have the implicit risk of contamination with allo or xeno-proteins or viruses (Xie et al. 2010). Because alginate is generally cytocompatible, it has been used extensively in medicine, including cell therapy and tissue engineering applications (Tampieri et al. 2005; Xie et al. 2010; Xu et al. 2007). Calcium cross-linked alginate hydrogel is considered a promising material as a delivery matrix for drugs and proteins, since its gel microspheres form readily in aqueous solutions at room temperature, eliminating the need for harsh organic solvents, thereby maintaining the bioactivity of proteins in the process of loading into the microspheres (Jay & Saltzman 2009; Kikuchi et al. 1999). In addition, calcium cross-linked alginate hydrogel is degradable under physiological conditions (Kibat PG et al. 1990; Park K et al. 1993), which makes alginate stand out as an attractive candidate material for the protein carrier and bone regeneration (Hosoya et al. 2004; Matsuno et al. 2008; Turco et al. 2009). However, the major disadvantages of alginate microspheres is their low loading efficiency and also rapid release of proteins due to the mesh-like networks of the gel (Halder et al. 2005). Previous studies have shown that a core-shell structure in drug/protein carriers can overcome the issues of limited loading efficiencies and rapid release of drug or protein (Chang et al. 2010; Molvinger et al. 2004; Soppimath et al. 2007). We therefore hypothesized that introducing a core-shell structure into the alginate microspheres could solve the shortcomings of the pure alginate. Calcium silicate (CS) has been tested as a biodegradable biomaterial for bone tissue regeneration. CS is capable of inducing bone-like apatite formation in simulated body fluid (SBF) and its apatite-formation rate in SBF is faster than that of Bioglass® and A-W glass-ceramics (De Aza et al. 2000; Siriphannon et al. 2002). Titanium alloys plasma-spray coated with CS have excellent in vivo bioactivity (Xue et al. 2005) and porous CS scaffolds have enhanced in vivo bone formation ability compared to porous β-tricalcium phosphate ceramics (Xu et al. 2008). In light of the many advantages of this material, we decided to prepare CS/alginate composite microspheres by combining a CS shell with an alginate core to improve their protein delivery and mineralization for potential protein delivery and bone repair applications

Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Catalytic effects of subsurface carbon in the chemisorption of hydrogen on a Mg(0001) surface: an ab-initio study

Ab initio density functional theory (DFT) calculations are performed to explore possible catalytic effects on the dissociative chemisorption of hydrogen on a Mg(0001) surface when carbon is incorporated into Mg materials. The computational results imply that a C atom located initially on a Mg(0001) surface can migrate into the subsurface and occupy an fcc interstitial site, with charge transfer to the C atom from neighboring Mg atoms. The effect of subsurface C on the dissociation of H2 on the Mg(0001) surface is found to be relatively marginal: a perfect sublayer of interstitial C is calculated to lower the barrier by 0.16 eV compared with that on a pure Mg(0001) surface. Further calculations reveal, however, that sublayer C may have a significant effect in enhancing the diffusion of atomic hydrogen into the sublayers through fcc channels. This contributes new physical understanding toward rationalizing the experimentally observed improvement in absorption kinetics of H2 when graphite or single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) are introduced into the Mg powder during ball milling.

Photocatalysis on supported gold and silver nanoparticles under ultraviolet and visible light irradiation

Studies of the optical properties and catalytic capabilities of noble metal nanoparticles (NPs), such as gold (Au) and silver (Ag), have formed the basis for the very recent fast expansion of the field of green photocatalysis: photocatalysis utilizing visible and ultraviolet light, a major part of the solar spectrum. The reason for this growth is the recognition that the localised surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) effect of Au NPs and Ag NPs can couple the light flux to the conduction electrons of metal NPs, and the excited electrons and enhanced electric fields in close proximity to the NPs can contribute to converting the solar energy to chemical energy by photon-driven photocatalytic reactions. Previously the LSPR effect of noble metal NPs was utilized almost exclusively to improve the performance of semiconductor photocatalysts (for example, TiO2 and Ag halides), but recently, a conceptual breakthrough was made: studies on light driven reactions catalysed by NPs of Au or Ag on photocatalytically inactive supports (insulating solids with a very wide band gap) have demonstrated that these materials are a class of efficient photocatalysts working by mechanisms distinct from those of semiconducting photocatalysts. There are several reasons for the significant photocatalytic activity of Au and Ag NPs. (1) The conduction electrons of the particles gain the irradiation energy, resulting in high energy electrons at the NP surface which is desirable for activating molecules on the particles for chemical reactions. (2) In such a photocatalysis system, both light harvesting and the catalysing reaction take place on the nanoparticle, and so charge transfer between the NPs and support is not a prerequisite. (3) The density of the conduction electrons at the NP surface is much higher than that at the surface of any semiconductor, and these electrons can drive the reactions on the catalysts. (4) The metal NPs have much better affinity than semiconductors to many reactants, especially organic molecules. Recent progress in photocatalysis using Au and Ag NPs on insulator supports is reviewed. We focus on the mechanism differences between insulator and semiconductor-supported Au and Ag NPs when applied in photocatalytic processes, and the influence of important factors, light intensity and wavelength, in particular estimations of light irradiation contribution, by calculating the apparent activation energies of photo reactions and thermal reactions.

The Escherichia coli O157:H7 EhaB autotransporter protein binds to laminin and collagen I and induces a serum IgA response in O157:H7 challenged cattle

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) are a subgroup of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli that cause gastrointestinal disease with the potential for life-threatening sequelae. Cattle serve as the natural reservoir for EHEC and outbreaks occur sporadically as a result of contaminated beef and other farming products. While certain EHEC virulence mechanisms have been extensively studied, the factors that mediate host colonization are poorly defined. Previously, we identified four proteins (EhaA,B,C,D) from the prototypic EHEC strain EDL933 that belong to the autotransporter (AT) family. Here we characterize the EhaB AT protein. EhaB was shown to be located at the cell surface and overexpression in E. coli K-12 resulted in significant biofilm formation under continuous flow conditions. Overexpression of EhaB in E. coli K12 and EDL933 backgrounds also promoted adhesion to the extracellular matrix proteins collagen I and laminin. An EhaB-specific antibody revealed that EhaB is expressed in E. coli EDL933 following in vitro growth. EhaB also cross-reacted with serum IgA from cattle challenged with E. coli O157:H7, indicating that EhaB is expressed in vivo and elicits a host IgA immune response.

The contribution of three components of nutrition knowledge to socio-economic differences in food purchasing choices

Objectives: To assess socio-economic differences in three components of nutrition knowledge, i.e. knowledge of (i) the relationship between diet and disease, (ii) the nutrient content of foods and (iii) dietary guideline recommendations; furthermore, to determine if socio-economic differences in nutrition knowledge contribute to inequalities in food purchasing choices. Design: The cross-sectional study considered household food purchasing,nutrition knowledge, socio-economic and demographic information. Household food purchasing choices were summarised by three indices, based on self-reported purchasing of sixteen groceries, nineteen fruits and twenty-one vegetables. Socio-economic position (SEP) was measured by household income and education. Associations between SEP, nutrition knowledge and food purchasing were examined using general linear models adjusted for age, gender, household type and household size. Setting: Brisbane, Australia in 2000. Subjects: Main household food shoppers (n 1003, response rate 66?4 %), located in fifty small areas (Census Collectors Districts). Results: Shoppers in households of low SEP made food purchasing choices that were less consistent with dietary guideline recommendations: they were more likely to purchase grocery foods comparatively higher in salt, sugar and fat, and lower in fibre, and they purchased a narrower range of fruits and vegetables. Those of higher SEP had greater nutrition knowledge and this factor attenuated most associations between SEP and food purchasing choices. Among nutrition knowledge factors, knowledge of the relationship between diet and disease made the greatest and most consistent contribution to explaining socio-economic differences in food purchasing. Conclusions: Addressing inequalities in nutrition knowledge is likely to reduce socio-economic differences in compliance with dietary guidelines. Improving knowledge of the relationship between diet and disease appears to be a particularly relevant focus for health promotion aimed to reduce socio-economic differences in diet and related health inequalities.