Quarantine and surveillance strategies for plant pathogen detection and control

Incursions of plant pests and diseases pose serious threats to food security, agricultural productivity and the natural environment. One of the challenges in confidently delimiting and eradicating incursions is how to choose from an arsenal of surveillance and quarantine approaches in order to best control multiple dispersal pathways. Anthropogenic spread (propagules carried on humans or transported on produce or equipment) can be controlled with quarantine measures, which in turn can vary in intensity. In contrast, environmental spread processes are more difficult to control, but often have a temporal signal (e.g. seasonality) which can introduce both challenges and opportunities for surveillance and control. This leads to complex decisions regarding when, where and how to search. Recent modelling investigations of surveillance performance have optimised the output of simulation models, and found that a risk-weighted randomised search can perform close to optimally. However, exactly how quarantine and surveillance strategies should change to reflect different dispersal modes remains largely unaddressed. Here we develop a spatial simulation model of a plant fungal-pathogen incursion into an agricultural region, and its subsequent surveillance and control. We include structural differences in dispersal via the interplay of biological, environmental and anthropogenic connectivity between host sites (farms). Our objective was to gain broad insights into the relative roles played by different spread modes in propagating an invasion, and how incorporating knowledge of these spread risks may improve approaches to quarantine restrictions and surveillance. We find that broad heuristic rules for quarantine restrictions fail to contain the pathogen due to residual connectivity between sites, but surveillance measures enable early detection and successfully lead to suppression of the pathogen in all farms. Alternative surveillance strategies attain similar levels of performance by incorporating environmental or anthropogenic dispersal risk in the prioritisation of sites. Our model provides the basis to develop essential insights into the effectiveness of different surveillance and quarantine decisions for fungal pathogen control. Parameterised for authentic settings it will aid our understanding of how the extent and resolution of interventions should suitably reflect the spatial structure of dispersal processes.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Sexual selection in a tropical fruit fly : role of a plant derived chemical in mate choice

The specific mechanisms by which selective pressures affect individuals are often difficult to resolve. In tephritid fruit flies, males respond strongly and positively to certain plant derived chemicals. Sexual selection by female choice has been hypothesized as the mechanism driving this behaviour in certain species, as females preferentially mate with males that have fed on these chemicals. This hypothesis is, to date, based on studies of only very few species and its generality is largely untested. We tested the hypothesis on different spatial scales (small cage and seminatural field-cage) using the monophagous fruit fly, Bactrocera cacuminata. This species is known to respond to methyl eugenol (ME), a chemical found in many plant species and one upon which previous studies have focused. Contrary to expectation, no obvious female choice was apparent in selecting ME-fed males over unfed males as measured by the number of matings achieved over time, copulation duration, or time of copulation initiation. However, the number of matings achieved by ME-fed males was significantly greater than unfed males 16 and 32 days after exposure to ME in small cages (but not in a field-cage). This delayed advantage suggests that ME may not influence the pheromone system of B. cacuminata but may have other consequences, acting on some other fitness consequence (e.g., enhancement of physiology or survival) of male exposure to these chemicals. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of our findings to explore alternate hypotheses to explain the patterns of response of dacine fruit flies to specific plant-derived chemicals.

Influence of host plant structure and microclimate on the abundance and behaviour of Tephritid fly

Microclimate and host plant architecture significantly influence the abundance and behavior of insects. However, most research in this field has focused at the invertebrate assemblage level, with few studies at the single-species level. Using wild Solanum mauritianum plants, we evaluated the influence of plant structure (number of leaves and branches and height of plant) and microclimate (temperature, relative humidity, and light intensity) on the abundance and behavior of a single insect species, the monophagous tephritid fly Bactrocera cacuminata (Hering). Abundance and oviposition behavior were signficantly influenced by the host structure (density of foliage) and associated microclimate. Resting behavior of both sexes was influenced positively by foliage density, while temperature positively influenced the numbers of resting females. The number of ovipositing females was positively influenced by temperature and negatively by relative humidity. Feeding behavior was rare on the host plant, as was mating. The relatively low explanatory power of the measured variables suggests that, in addition to host plant architecture and associated microclimate, other cues (e.g., olfactory or visual) could affect visitation and use of the larval host plant by adult fruit flies. For 12 plants observed at dusk (the time of fly mating), mating pairs were observed on only one tree. Principal component analyses of the plant and microclimate factors associated with these plants revealed that the plant on which mating was observed had specific characteristics (intermediate light intensity, greater height, and greater quantity of fruit) that may have influenced its selection as a mating site.

Phylogenetic placement of the sugarcane orange rust pathogen Puccinia kuehnii in a historical and regional context

Sugarcane orange rust, caused by Puccinia kuehnii, was once considered a minor disease in the Australian sugar industry. However, in 2000 a new race of the pathogen devastated the high-performing sugarcane cultivar Q124, and caused the industry Aus$150–210 million in yield losses. At the time of the epidemic, very little was known about the genetic and pathogenic diversity of the fungus in Australia and neighbouring sugar industries. DNA sequence data from three rDNA regions were used to determine the genetic relationships between isolates within two P. kuehnii collections. The first collection comprised only recent Australian field isolates and limited sequence variation was detected within this population. In the second study, Australian isolates were compared with isolates from Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, China and historical herbarium collections. Greater sequence variation was detected in this collection and phylogenetic analyses grouped the isolates into three clades. All isolates from commercial cane fields clustered together including the recent Australianfield isolates and the Australian historical isolate from 1898.The other two clades included rust isolates from wild and garden canes in Indonesia and PNG. These rusts appeared morphologically similar to P. kuehnii and could potentially pose a quarantine threat to the Australian sugar industry. The results have revealed greater diversity in sugarcane rusts than previously thought.

Somatic embryogenesis, organogenesis and plant regeneration in taro (Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta)

Callus was initiated in three different ‘‘esculenta’’ taro cultivars by culturing corm slices in the dark on half-strength MS medium supplemented with 2.0 mg/l 2,4- dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) for 20 days followed by subculture of all corm slices to half-strength MS medium containing 1.0 mg/l thidiazuron (TDZ). Depending on the cultivar, 20–30% of corm slices produced compact, yellow, nodular callus on media containing TDZ. Histological studies revealed the presence of typical embryogenic cells which were small, isodiametric with dense cytoplasms. Somatic embryos formed when callus was transferred to hormone-free medium and *72% of the embryos germinated into plantlets on this medium. Simultaneous formation of roots and shoots during germination, and the presence of shoot and root poles revealed by histology, confirmed that these structures were true somatic embryos. Plants derived from somatic embryos appeared phenotypically normal following 2 months growth in a glasshouse. This method is a significant advance on those previously reported for the esculenta cultivars of taro due to its efficiency and reproducibility.

Initiation of embryogenic cell suspensions of taro (Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta) and plant regeneration

Embryogenic callus was initiated by culturing in vitro taro corm slices on agar-solidified half-strength MS medium containing 2.0 mg/L 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) for 20 days followed by transfer to 1.0 mg/L thidiazuron (TDZ). Callus was subsequently proliferated on solid medium containing 1.0 mg/L TDZ, 0.5 mg/L 2,4- D and 800 mg/L glutamine before transfer to liquid medium containing the same components but with reduced glutamine (100 mg/L). After 3 months in liquid culture on an orbital shaker, cytoplasmically dense cell aggregates began to form. Somatic embryogenesis was induced by plating suspension cells onto solid media containing reduced levels of hormones (0.1 mg/L TDZ, 0.05 mg/L 2,4-D), high concentrations of sucrose (40–50 g/L) and biotin (1.0 mg/L). Embryo maturation and germination was then induced on media containing 0.05 mg/L benzyladenine (BA) and 0.1 mg/L indole-3-acetic acid (IAA). Histological studies of the developing embryos revealed the presence of typical shoot and root poles suggesting that these structures were true somatic embryos. The rate of somatic embryos formation was 500–3,000 per mL settledcell volume while approximately 60% of the embryos regenerated into plants.

A cost-based optimization of a fiberboard pressing plant using Monte-Carlo simulation (a reliability program)

In this research the reliability and availability of fiberboard pressing plant is assessed and a cost-based optimization of the system using the Monte- Carlo simulation method is performed. The woodchip and pulp or engineered wood industry in Australia and around the world is a lucrative industry. One such industry is hardboard. The pressing system is the main system, as it converts the wet pulp to fiberboard. The assessment identified the pressing system has the highest downtime throughout the plant plus it represents the bottleneck in the process. A survey in the late nineties revealed there are over one thousand plants around the world, with the pressing system being a common system among these plants. No work has been done to assess or estimate the reliability of such a pressing system; therefore this assessment can be used for assessing any plant of this type.