Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

The Validity of the Brief Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (bMAST) as a Problem Drinking Severity Measure

Objective: The Brief Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (bMAST) is a 10-item test derived from the 25-item Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST). It is widely used in the assessment of alcohol dependence. In the absence of previous validation studies, the principal aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the bMAST as a measure of the severity of problem drinking. Method: There were 6,594 patients (4,854 men, 1,740 women) who had been referred for alcohol-use disorders to a hospital alcohol and drug service who voluntarily participated in this study. Results: An exploratory factor analysis defined a two-factor solution, consisting of Perception of Current Drinking and Drinking Consequences factors. Structural equation modeling confirmed that the fit of a nine-item, two-factor model was superior to the original one-factor model. Concurrent validity was assessed through simultaneous administration of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and associations with alcohol consumption and clinically assessed features of alcohol dependence. The two-factor bMAST model showed moderate correlations with the AUDIT. The two-factor bMAST and AUDIT were similarly associated with quantity of alcohol consumption and clinically assessed dependence severity features. No differences were observed between the existing weighted scoring system and the proposed simple scoring system. Conclusions: In this study, both the existing bMAST total score and the two-factor model identified were as effective as the AUDIT in assessing problem drinking severity. There are additional advantages of employing the two-factor bMAST in the assessment and treatment planning of patients seeking treatment for alcohol-use disorders. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs 68: 771-779,2007)

Governors highway safety associations and transportation planning: Exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 mandated the consideration of safety in the regional transportation planning process. As part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 8-44, "Incorporating Safety into the Transportation Planning Process," we conducted a telephone survey to assess safety-related activities and expertise at Governors Highway Safety Associations (GHSAs), and GHSA relationships with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). The survey results were combined with statewide crash data to enable exploratory modeling of the relationship between GHSA policies and programs and statewide safety. The modeling objective was to illuminate current hurdles to ISTEA implementation, so that appropriate institutional, analytical, and personnel improvements can be made. The study revealed that coordination of transportation safety across DOTs, MPOs, GHSAs, and departments of public safety is generally beneficial to the implementation of safety. In addition, better coordination is characterized by more positive and constructive attitudes toward incorporating safety into planning.

Characterization and Mapping of Patterned Ground in the Saginaw Lowlands, Michigan: Possible Evidence for Late-Wisconsin Permafrost

We identified, mapped, and characterized a widespread area (gt;1,020 km2) of patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands of Michigan, a wet, flat plain composed of waterlain tills, lacustrine deposits, or both. The polygonal patterned ground is interpreted as a possible relict permafrost feature, formed in the Late Wisconsin when this area was proximal to the Laurentide ice sheet. Cold-air drainage off the ice sheet might have pooled in the Saginaw Lowlands, which sloped toward the ice margin, possibly creating widespread but short-lived permafrost on this glacial lake plain. The majority of the polygons occur between the Glacial Lake Warren strandline (~14.8 cal. ka) and the shoreline of Glacial Lake Elkton (~14.3 cal. ka), providing a relative age bracket for the patterned ground. Most of the polygons formed in dense, wet, silt loam soils on flat-lying sites and take the form of reticulate nets with polygon long axes of 150 to 160 m and short axes of 60 to 90 m. Interpolygon swales, often shown as dark curvilinears on aerial photographs, are typically slightly lower than are the polygon centers they bound. Some portions of these interpolygon swales are infilled with gravel-free, sandy loam sediments. The subtle morphology and sedimentological characteristics of the patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands suggest that thermokarst erosion, rather than ice-wedge replacement, was the dominant geomorphic process associated with the degradation of the Late-Wisconsin permafrost in the study area and, therefore, was primarily responsible for the soil patterns seen there today.