Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

GPU accelerated MCMC for modelling terrorist activity

The use of graphical processing unit (GPU) parallel processing is becoming a part of mainstream statistical practice. The reliance of Bayesian statistics on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods makes the applicability of parallel processing not immediately obvious. It is illustrated that there are substantial gains in improved computational time for MCMC and other methods of evaluation by computing the likelihood using GPU parallel processing. Examples use data from the Global Terrorism Database to model terrorist activity in Colombia from 2000 through 2010 and a likelihood based on the explicit convolution of two negative-binomial processes. Results show decreases in computational time by a factor of over 200. Factors influencing these improvements and guidelines for programming parallel implementations of the likelihood are discussed.

Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Endogenous and exogenous effects in self-exciting process models of terrorist activity

A model based on the cluster process representation of the self-exciting process model in White and Porter 2013 and Ruggeri and Soyer 2008is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self-exciting or cluster process model. The details of the model derivation and implementation are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database from 2000–2012. Results are discussed in terms of practical interpretation along with implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory.

Public health and clinical dilemmas resulting from imprecise vitamin D tests

Objective: To determine whether there are clinical and public health dilemmas resulting from the reproducibility of routine vitamin D assays. Methods: Blinded agreement studies were conducted in eight clinical laboratories using two commonly used assays to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels in Australasia and Canada (DiaSorin Radioimmunoassay (RIA) and DiaSorin LIAISON® one). Results: Only one laboratory measured 25(OH)D with excellent precision. Replicate 25(OH)D measurements varied by up to 97% and 15% of paired results differed by more than 50%. Thirteen percent of subjects received one result indicating insufficiency [25-50 nmol/l] and another suggesting adequacy [>50 nmol/l]). Agreement ranged from poor to excellent for laboratories using the manual RIA, while the precision of the semi-automated Liaison® system was consistently poor. Conclusions: Recent interest in the relevance of vitamin D to human health has increased demand for 25(OH)D testing and associated costs. Our results suggest clinicians and public health authorities are making decisions about treatment or changes to public health policy based on imprecise data. Clinicians, researchers and policy makers should be made aware of the imprecision of current 25(OH)D testing so that they exercise caution when using these assays for clinical practice, and when interpreting the findings of epidemiological studies based on vitamin D levels measured using these assays. Development of a rapid, reproducible, accurate and robust assay should be a priority due to interest in populationbased screening programs and research to inform public health policy about the amount of sun exposure required for human health. In the interim, 25(OH)D results should routinely include a statement of measurement uncertainty.

Vitamin D and injury prevention

Vitamin D, along with calcium, may help decrease the risk of falls and fractures in older adults. Sunlight and other sources of ultraviolet radiation are not recommended because they increase the risk of skin cancers and sun-induced eye disorders. Rather, vitamin D and calcium needs should be met through foods and dietary supplements. As a preventive measure to reduce the risk of falls and fractures, it is recommended that older adults meet the 2005 Dietary Guidelines and consume 1000 IU of vitamin D, preferably as vitamin D3.

Dark humour invigorates familiar fables ; a review

THEATRE: Grimm Tales. By Carol Ann Duffy and Tim Supple. Queensland Theatre Company, Brisbane. November 16. QUEENSLAND Theatre Company concludes its season with Grimm Tales, Carol Ann Duffy and Tim Supple's adaptation of classic cautionary tales as set down by the Brothers Grimm in the 19th century. This programming decision is clearly designed to present fun family entertainment as Christmas approaches. In Grimm Tales, well-known stories such as Hansel and Gretel, Snow White and Rumpelstiltskin pack a little more punch than in your standard picture book. Duffy and Supple's play is by no means the sort of poetic, postmodern or politicised adaptation of the fairytale we see from writers such as Angela Carter, and it is not intended to be subversive or to question the social and gender assumptions that underpin the tales. Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar. End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar. Rather, a return to the grislier original incarnations of the tales - the wicked stepsisters who lop off parts of their feet to fit the slipper and win the prince, or the hare so confused by the hedgehog's stratagem to make him think he is losing the race, he runs himself to death - has a comic effect. In this production, directed by Michael Futcher, heightened performances from some of Brisbane's best comic and physical actors, live music and an open, acknowledged relationship with the audience establish the atmosphere for the piece. While the production is a little sombre and slow to start with the first tale, Hansel and Gretel, the knowingness and almost slapstick quality with which the cast plays out the gruesome, scatological or silly moments in the other tales are well pitched to carry the comedy. The action is supported by a fantastic set by Greg Clarke of wooden planked walls, stairs and walkways which, with the help of David Walter's lighting design, is transformed into forests, ballrooms and castles as the cast moves up, over and under it. The overall highlight is probably the cast Futcher has brought together. Established QTC actors Eugene Gilfedder, Lucas Stibbard and Scott Witt, and emerging QTC actor Melanie Zanetti, join Liz Buchanan, Dan Crestani and Emma Pursey, all well known for their independent work in Brisbane but making their mainstage debut for the QTC. Every one of them metamorphoses with ease from character to character, human to animal, and central player to support. There is nothing particularly new in Grimm Tales, and it doesn't try to do anything more (or, indeed, less) than entertain, but skilful direction and a strong cast ensure it succeeds on those terms.

Michael Winterbottom

Considered either individually or as a body of work, the films of British director Michael Winterbottom pose a range of challenges to audiences Covering a vast range of genres, themes and issue, and often explicitly political, confronting or estranging, these films never allow a viewer to be passive.

Tailoring secretion of proteoglycan 4 (PRG4) in tissue-engineered cartilage

Articular cartilage provides a low-friction surface for joint articulation, with boundary lubrication facilitated by proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), which is secreted by chondrocytes of the superficial zone. Chondrocytes from different zones are phenotypically distinct, and their phenotypes in vitro are influenced by the system in which they are cultured. We hypothesized that culturing cells from the superficial (S) zone in two-dimensional monolayer or three-dimensional alginate would affect their synthesis of PRG4, and that subsequently seeding them atop alginate-recovered cells from the middle/ deep (M) zone in various proportions would result in tissue-engineered constructs with varying levels of PRG4 secretion and matrix accumulation. During monolayer culture, S cells retained their PRG4-secreting phenotype, whereas in alginate culture the percentage of cells secreting PRG4 decreased with time. Constructs formed with increasing percentages of S cells decreased in thickness and matrix accumulation, depending on both the culture conditions before construct formation and the S-cell density. PRG4-secreting cells were localized to the S-cell seeded construct surface, with secretion rates of 0.1–4 pg/cell/day or 0.1–1 pg/cell/day for constructs formed with monolayer-recovered or alginate-recovered S cells, respectively. Tailoring secretion of PRG4 in cartilage constructs may be useful for enhancing low-friction properties at the articular surface, while maintaining other surfaces free of PRG4 for enhancing integration with surrounding tissues.

Rooms on view : home and design exhibition

The expression of a narrative realized through a constructed interior environment provides a significant and engaging response that falls between the realms of design and theatre in which the space itself provides the role of actor.

Book review: "Qualitative Health Psychology. Theories and Methods" Michael Murray and Kerry Chamberlain (Eds.)

Qualitative Health Psychology aims to contribute to the debate about the nature of psychology and of science through ‘an examination of the role of qualitative research within health psychology’ (p. 3). The editors, in bringing together contributors from the UK, Ireland, Canada, Brazil, New Zealand and Australia, have compiled a text that reflects different uses of qualitative health research in diverse social and cultural contexts. Structured into three parts, the book encompasses key theoretical and methodological issues in qualitative research in its attempt to encourage broad epistemological debate within health psychology.