Market access of Papua New Guinea bananas (Musa spp.) with particular respect to banana fly (Bactrocera musae (Tryon)) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

International market access for fresh commodities is regulated by international accepted phytosanitary guidelines, the objectives of which are to reduce the biosecurity risk of plant pest and disease movement. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has identified banana as a potential export crop and to help meet international market access requirements, this thesis provides information for the development of a pest risk analysis (PRA) for PNG banana fruit. The PRA is a three step process which first identifies the pests associated with a particular commodity or pathway, then assesses the risk associated with those pests, and finally identifies risk management options for those pests if required. As the first step of the PRA process, I collated a definitive list on the organisms associated with the banana plant in PNG using formal literature, structured interviews with local experts, grey literature and unpublished file material held in PNG field research stations. I identified 112 organisms (invertebrates, vertebrate, pathogens and weeds) associated with banana in PNG, but only 14 of these were reported as commonly requiring management. For these 14 I present detailed information summaries on their known biology and pest impact. A major finding of the review was that of the 14 identified key pests, some research information occurs for 13. The single exception for which information was found to be lacking was Bactrocera musae (Tryon), the banana fly. The lack of information for this widely reported ‘major pest on PNG bananas’ would hinder the development of a PNG banana fruit PRA. For this reason the remainder of the thesis focused on this organism, particularly with respect to generation of information required by the PRA process. Utilising an existing, but previously unanalysed fruit fly trapping database for PNG, I carried out a Geographic Information System analysis of the distribution and abundance of banana in four major regions of PNG. This information is required for a PRA to determine if banana fruit grown in different parts of the country are at different risks from the fly. Results showed that the fly was widespread in all cropping regions and that temperature and rainfall were not significantly correlated with banana fly abundance. Abundance of the fly was significantly correlated (albeit weakly) with host availability. The same analysis was done with four other PNG pest fruit flies and their responses to the environmental factors differed to banana fly and each other. This implies that subsequent PRA analyses for other PNG fresh commodities will need to investigate the risk of each of these flies independently. To quantify the damage to banana fruit caused by banana fly in PNG, local surveys and one national survey of banana fruit infestation were carried out. Contrary to expectations, infestation was found to be very low, particularly in the widely grown commercial cultivar, Cavendish. Infestation of Cavendish fingers was only 0.41% in a structured, national survey of over 2 700 banana fingers. Follow up laboratory studies showed that fingers of Cavendish, and another commercial variety Lady-finger, are very poor hosts for B. musae, with very low host selection rates by female flies and very poor immature survival. An analysis of a recent (within last decade) incursion of B. musae into the Gazelle Peninsula of East New Britain Province, PNG, provided the final set of B. musae data. Surveys of the fly on the peninsular showed that establishment and spread of the fly in the novel environment was very rapid and thus the fly should be regarded as being of high biosecurity concern, at least in tropical areas. Supporting the earlier impact studies, however, banana fly has not become a significant banana fruit problem on the Gazelle, despite bananas being the primary starch staple of the region. The results of the research chapters are combined in the final Discussion in the form of a B. musae focused PRA for PNG banana fruit. Putting the thesis in a broader context, the Discussion also deals with the apparent discrepancy between high local abundance of banana fly and very low infestation rates. This discussion focuses on host utilisation patterns of specialist herbivores and suggests that local pest abundance, as determined by trapping or monitoring, need not be good surrogate for crop damage, despite this linkage being implicit in a number of international phytosanitary protocols.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water and lack of sanitation and hygiene in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) by age group for South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate the disease burden attributable to an exposure by comparing the observed risk factor distribution with a theoretical lowest possible population distribution. A scenario-based approach was applied for estimating diarrhoeal disease burden from unsafe WSH. Six exposure scenarios were defined based on the type of water and sanitation infrastructure and environmental faecal-oral pathogen load. For ‘intestinal parasites’ and schistosomiasis, the burden was assumed to be 100% attributable to exposure to unsafe WSH. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Disease burden from diarrhoeal diseases, intestinal parasites and schistosomiasis, measured by deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results 13 434 deaths were attributable to unsafe WSH accounting for 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 2.7%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. The burden was especially high in children under 5 years, accounting for 9.3% of total deaths in this age group and 7.4% of burden of disease. Overall, the burden due to unsafe WSH was equivalent to 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.5 - 2.7%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, ranking this risk factor seventh for the country. Conclusions Unsafe WSH remains an important risk factor for disease in South Africa, especially in children under 5. High priority needs to be given to the provision of safe and sustainable sanitation and water facilities and to promoting safe hygiene behaviours, particularly among children.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimizing search strategies for invasive pests: Learn before you leap

Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Socioeconomic inequalities in diet and bodyweight: Evidence, causes, and intervention options

Diets low in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, and high in saturated fat, salt, and sugar are the major contributors to the burden of chronic diseases globally. Previous research, and studies in this issue of Public Health Nutrition (PHN), show that unhealthy diets are more commonly observed among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, and are key contributors to their higher rates of chronic disease. Most research examining socioeconomic inequalities in diet and bodyweight has been descriptive, and has focused on identifying the nature, extent, and direction of the inequalities. These types of studies are clearly necessary and important. We need however to move beyond description of the problem and focus much more on the question of why inequalities in diet and bodyweight exist. Furthering our understanding of this question will provide the necessary evidence-base to develop effective interventions to reduce the inequalities. The challenge of tackling dietary inequalities however doesn’t finish here: a maximally effective approach will also require equity-based policies that address the unequal population-distribution of social and economic resources, which is the fundamental root-cause of dietary and bodyweight inequalities.

Distribution of conjunctival ultraviolet autoflourescence in a population-based study : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe the distribution of conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF) in an adult population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island, South Pacific Ocean. In all, 641 people, aged 15 to 89 years, were recruited. UVAF and standard (control) photographs were taken of the nasal and temporal interpalpebral regions bilaterally. Differences between the groups for non-normally distributed continuous variables were assessed using the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney ranksum test. Trends across categories were assessed using Cuzick's non-parametric test for trend or Kendall's rank correlation τ. RESULTS: Conjunctival UVAF is a non-parametric trait with a positively skewed distribution. Median amount of conjunctival UVAF per person (sum of four measurements; right nasal/temporal and left nasal/temporal) was 28.2 mm(2) (interquartile range 14.5-48.2). There was an inverse, linear relationship between UVAF and advancing age (P<0.001). Males had a higher sum of UVAF compared with females (34.4 mm(2) vs 23.2 mm(2), P<0.0001). There were no statistically significant differences in area of UVAF between right and left eyes or between nasal and temporal regions. CONCLUSION: We have provided the first quantifiable estimates of conjunctival UVAF in an adult population. Further data are required to provide information about the natural history of UVAF and to characterise other potential disease associations with UVAF. UVR protective strategies should be emphasised at an early age to prevent the long-term adverse effects on health associated with excess UVR.

Temporal and spatial distribution and habitat associations of an urban population of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Two ultrasound survey methods were used to determine the presence and activity patterns of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) in the city of Hamilton. First, 13 monthly surveys conducted at 18 green spaces found C. tuberculatus in only one urban forest reserve, Hammond Bush, where they were found consistently throughout the year. Bat activity was strongly related to temperature. Second, twice-yearly citywide surveys conducted over 2 years determined the distribution and habitat associations of C. tuberculatus. Bats were found only in the southern part of the city and were strongly associated with the Waikato River. Bat activity was negatively correlated with housing and street light density and positively correlated with topographical complexity. In Hamilton, topographical complexity indicates the presence of gullies. Gullies probably provide foraging and roosting opportunities and connect the river to distant forest patches. These results suggest that urban habitats can be useful for bats if gullies can link these to distant habitat fragments.

A population survey of the penetrance of contact lens wear in Australia : rationale, methodology and results

Purpose: A population based, cross-sectional telephone survey was conducted to estimate the total penetrance of contact lens wear in Australia. Methods: A total of 42,749 households around Australia were randomly selected from the national electronic telephone directory based on postcode distribution. Before contact was attempted, letters of introduction were sent. The number of individuals and contact lens wearers in each household was ascertained and lens wearers were interviewed to determine details of lens type and mode of wear using a structured questionnaire. Results: Of households contacted, 59.2% (19,171/32,405) agreed to participate. Response rates were only marginally higher amongst households that first received a letter of introduction. In these households, 35,914 individuals were identified, of which, 1,798 were contact lens wearers. The penetrance of contact lens wear during the study period was 5.01% (95% CI: 4.78-5.24). Soft hydrogel lenses had the largest penetrance in the community, (66.7% of all wearers), however, their market share decreased significantly over the study period with increased uptake of newly introduced lens types. Conclusions: The penetrance of contact lens wear concurs with market estimates and equates to approximately 680,000 contact lens wearers aged between 15 and 64 years in Australia. The low response rate obtained in this study highlights the difficulty in contemporary use of telephone survey methodology

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

The population approach to falls injury prevention in older people : findings of a two community trial

Background: There is a sound rationale for the population-based approach to falls injury prevention but there is currently insufficient evidence to advise governments and communities on how they can use population-based strategies to achieve desired reductions in the burden of falls-related injury.---------- Aim: To quantify the effectiveness of a streamlined (and thus potentially sustainable and cost-effective), population-based, multi-factorial falls injury prevention program for people over 60 years of age.---------- Methods: Population-based falls-prevention interventions were conducted at two geographically-defined and separate Australian sites: Wide Bay, Queensland, and Northern Rivers, NSW. Changes in the prevalence of key risk factors and changes in rates of injury outcomes within each community were compared before and after program implementation and changes in rates of injury outcomes in each community were also compared with the rates in their respective States.---------- Results: The interventions in neither community substantially decreased the rate of falls-related injury among people aged 60 years or older, although there was some evidence of reductions in occurrence of multiple falls reported by women. In addition, there was some indication of improvements in fall-related risk factors, but the magnitudes were generally modest.---------- Conclusion: The evidence suggests that low intensity population-based falls prevention programs may not be as effective as those are intensively implemented.

Settlement geography of African refugee communities in Southeast Queensland : an analysis of residential distribution and secondary migration

Before 2001, most Africans immigrating to Australia were white South Africans and Zimbabweans who arrived as economic and family-reunion migrants (Cox, Cooper & Adepoju, 1999). Black African communities are a more recent addition to the Australian landscape, with most entering Australia as refugees after 2001. African refugees are a particularly disadvantaged immigrant group, which the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs (in the Community Relations Commission of New South Wales, 2006) suggests require high levels of settlement support (p.23). Decision makers and settlement service providers need to have settlement data on the communities so that they can be effective in planning, budgeting and delivering support where it is most needed. Settlement data are also useful for determining the challenges that these communities face in trying to establish themselves in resettlement. There has been no verification of existing secondary data sources, however, or previous formal study of African refugee settlement geography in Southeast Queensland. This research addresses the knowledge gap by using a mixed-method approach to identify and describe the distribution and population size of eight African communities in Southeast Queensland, examine secondary migration patterns in these communities and assess the relationship between these geographic features and housing, a critical factor in successful settlement. Significant discrepancies exist between the primary data gathered in the study and existing secondary data relating to population size and distribution of the communities. Results also reveal a tension between the socio-cultural forces and the housing and economic imperatives driving secondary migration in the communities, and a general lack of engagement by African refugees with structured support networks. These findings have a wide range of implications for policy and for groups that provide settlement support to these communities.

Spatial distribution of suicide in Queensland, Australia

Background: There has been a lack of investigation into the spatial distribution and clustering of suicide in Australia, where the population density is lower than many countries and varies dramatically among urban, rural and remote areas. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution of suicide at a Local Governmental Area (LGA) level and identify the LGAs with a high relative risk of suicide in Queensland, Australia, using geographical information system (GIS) techniques.---------- Methods: Data on suicide and demographic variables in each LGA between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. An age standardised mortality (ASM) rate for suicide was calculated at the LGA level. GIS techniques were used to examine the geographical difference of suicide across different areas.---------- Results: Far north and north-eastern Queensland (i.e., Cook and Mornington Shires) had the highest suicide incidence in both genders, while the south-western areas (i.e., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) had the lowest incidence in both genders. In different age groups (≤24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and ≥65 years), ASM rates of suicide varied with gender at the LGA level. Mornington and six other LGAs with low socioeconomic status in the upper Southeast had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk.---------- Conclusions: There was a notable difference in ASM rates of suicide at the LGA level in Queensland. Some LGAs had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk. The determinants of the geographical difference of suicide should be addressed in future research.