Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Sex-based comparisons of myofibrillar protein synthesis after resistance exercise in the fed state

Sex-based comparisons of myofibrillar protein synthesis after resistance exercise in the fed state. J Appl Physiol 112: 1805-1813, 2012. First published March 1, 2012; doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.00170.2012.- We made sex-based comparisons of rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) and anabolic signaling after a single bout of high-intensity resistance exercise. Eight men (20 ± 10 yr, BMI = 24.3 ± 2.4) and eight women (22 ± 1.8 yr, BMI = 23.0 ± 1.9) underwent primed constant infusions of L-[ring-13C6]phenylalanine on consecutive days with serial muscle biopsies. Biopsies were taken from the vastus lateralis at rest and 1, 3, 5, 24, 26, and 28 h after exercise. Twenty-five grams of whey protein was ingested immediately and 26 h after exercise. We also measured exercise-induced serum testosterone because it is purported to contribute to increases in myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) postexercise and its absence has been hypothesized to attenuate adaptative responses to resistance exercise in women. The exercise-induced area under the testosterone curve was 45-fold greater in men than women in the early (1 h) recovery period following exercise (P < 0.001). MPS was elevated similarly in men and women (2.3- and 2.7-fold, respectively) 1-5 h postexercise and after protein ingestion following 24 h recovery. Phosphorylation of mTORSer2448 was elevated to a greater extent in men than women acutely after exercise (P = 0.003), whereas increased phosphorylation of p70S6K1Thr389 was not different between sexes. Androgen receptor content was greater in men (main effect for sex, P = 0.049). Atrogin-1 mRNA abundance was decreased after 5 h recovery in both men and women (P < 0.001), and MuRF-1 expression was elevated in men after protein ingestion following 24 h recovery (P = 0.003). These results demonstrate minor sex-based differences in signaling responses and no difference in the MPS response to resistance exercise in the fed state. Interestingly, our data demonstrate that exerciseinduced increases in MPS are dissociated from postexercise testosteronemia and that stimulation of MPS occurs effectively with low systemic testosterone concentrations in women.

The role of prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase signaling in the development and progression of cancer

Prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase signaling via arachidonic acid metabolism affects a number of tumor cell survival pathways such as cell proliferation, apoptosis, tumor cell invasion and metastasis, and angiogenesis. However, the effects of these respective synthases differ considerably with respect to the pathways described. While prostacyclin synthase is generally believed to be anti-tumor, a pro-carcinogenic role for thromboxane synthase has been demonstrated in a variety of cancers. The balance of oppositely-acting COX-derived prostanoids influences many processes throughout the body, such as blood pressure regulation, clotting, and inflammation. The PGI2/TXA2 ratio is of particular interest in-vivo, with the corresponding synthases shown to be differentially regulated in a variety of disease states. Pharmacological inhibition of thromboxane synthase has been shown to significantly inhibit tumor cell growth, invasion, metastasis and angiogenesis in a range of experimental models. In direct contrast, prostacyclin synthase overexpression has been shown to be chemopreventive in a murine model of the disease, suggesting that the expression and activity of this enzyme may protect against tumor development. In this review, we discuss the aberrant expression and known functions of both prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase in cancer. We discuss the effects of these enzymes on a range of tumor cell survival pathways, such as tumor cell proliferation, induction of apoptosis, invasion and metastasis, and tumor cell angiogenesis. As downstream signaling pathways of these enzymes have also been implicated in cancer states, we examine the role of downstream effectors of PGIS and TXS activity in tumor growth and progression. Finally, we discuss current therapeutic strategies aimed at targeting these enzymes for the prevention/treatment of cancer. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reply to comment on 'Bi nanolines on Si(001): Registry with the substrate'

The registry of bismuth dimers, integral components of the bismuth nanoline on Si(001), is examined. In contrast to the currently accepted view, the bismuth dimers are found to be in registry with the two-dimensional lattice created by the silicon dimers. The consequences of this finding are briefly explored.

The genetic associations of acute anterior uveitis and their overlap with the genetics of ankylosing spondylitis

Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) involves inflammation of the iris and ciliary body of the eye. It occurs both in isolation and as a complication of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). It is strongly associated with HLA-B*27, but previous studies have suggested that further genetic factors may confer additional risk. We sought to investigate this using the Illumina Exomechip microarray, to compare 1504 cases with AS and AAU, 1805 with AS but no AAU and 21 133 healthy controls. We also used a heterogeneity test to test the differences in effect size between AS with AAU and AS without AAU. In the analysis comparing AS+AAU+ cases versus controls, HLA-B*27 and HLA-A*02:01 were significantly associated with the presence of AAU (P<10−300 and P=6 × 10−8, respectively). Secondary independent association with PSORS1C3 (P=4.7 × 10−5) and TAP2 (P=1.1 × 10−5) were observed in the major histocompatibility complex. There was a new suggestive association with a low-frequency variant at zinc-finger protein 154 in the AS without AAU versus control analysis (zinc-finger protein 154 (ZNF154), P=2.2 × 10−6). Heterogeneity testing showed that rs30187 in ERAP1 has a larger effect on AAU compared with that in AS alone. These findings also suggest that variants in ERAP1 have a differential impact on the risk of AAU when compared with AS, and hence the genetic risk for AAU differs from AS.