Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Measuring voluntary dietary change in response to exercise : a focus on dietary fat

Traditional treatments for weight management have focussed on prescribed dietary restriction or regular exercise, or a combination of both. However recidivism for such prescribed treatments remains high, particularly among the overweight and obese. The aim of this thesis was to investigate voluntary dietary changes in the presence of prescribed mixed-mode exercise, conducted over 16 weeks. With the implementation of a single lifestyle change (exercise) it was postulated that the onerous burden of concomitant dietary and exercise compliance would be reduced, leading to voluntary lifestyle changes in such areas as diet. In addition, the failure of exercise as a single weight loss treatment has been reported to be due to compensatory energy intakes, although much of the evidence is from acute exercise studies, necessitating investigation of compensatory intakes during a long-term exercise intervention. Following 16 weeks of moderate intensity exercise, 30 overweight and obese (BMI≥25.00 kg.m-2) men and women showed small but statistically significant decreases in mean dietary fat intakes, without compensatory increases in other macronutrient or total energy intakes. Indeed total energy intakes were significantly lower for men and women following the exercise intervention, due to the decreases in dietary fat intakes. There was a risk that acceptance of the statistical validity of the small changes to dietary fat intakes may have constituted a Type 1 error, with false rejection of the Null hypothesis. Oro-sensory perceptions to changes in fat loads were therefore investigated to determine whether the measured dietary fat changes were detectable by the human palate. The ability to detect small changes in dietary fat provides sensory feedback for self-initiated dietary changes, but lean and overweight participants were unable to distinguish changes to fat loads of similar magnitudes to that measured in the exercise intervention study. Accuracy of the dietary measurement instrument was improved with the effects of random error (day-to-day variability) minimised with the use of a statistically validated 8-day, multiple-pass, 24 hour dietary recall instrument. However systematic error (underreporting) may have masked the magnitude of dietary change, particularly the reduction in dietary fat intakes. A purported biomarker (plasma Apolipoprotein A-IV) (apoA-IV) was subsequently investigated, to monitor systematic error in self-reported dietary intakes. Changes in plasma apoA-IV concentrations were directly correlated with increased and decreased changes to dietary fat intakes, suggesting that this objective marker may be a useful tool to improve the accuracy of dietary measurement in overweight and obese populations, who are susceptible to dietary underreporting.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Testing against changing correlation

A test for time-varying correlation is developed within the framework of a dynamic conditional score (DCS) model for both Gaussian and Student t-distributions. The test may be interpreted as a Lagrange multiplier test and modified to allow for the estimation of models for time-varying volatility in the individual series. Unlike standard moment-based tests, the score-based test statistic includes information on the level of correlation under the null hypothesis and local power arguments indicate the benefits of doing so. A simulation study shows that the performance of the score-based test is strong relative to existing tests across a range of data generating processes. An application to the Hong Kong and South Korean equity markets shows that the new test reveals changes in correlation that are not detected by the standard moment-based test.

A multi-hypothesis topological SLAM approach for loop closing on edge-ordered graphs

We present a method for topological SLAM that specifically targets loop closing for edge-ordered graphs. Instead of using a heuristic approach to accept or reject loop closing, we propose a probabilistically grounded multi-hypothesis technique that relies on the incremental construction of a map/state hypothesis tree. Loop closing is introduced automatically within the tree expansion, and likely hypotheses are chosen based on their posterior probability after a sequence of sensor measurements. Careful pruning of the hypothesis tree keeps the growing number of hypotheses under control and a recursive formulation reduces storage and computational costs. Experiments are used to validate the approach.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S.Madagascariensis)

Abstract The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Age-related maculopathy : linking aetiology and pathophysiological changes to the ischaemia hypothesis

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) has remained a challenging topic with respect to its aetiology, pathomechanisms, early detection and treatment since the late 19th century when it was first described as its own entity. ARM was previously considered an inflammatory disease, a degenerative disease, a tumor and as the result of choroidal hemodynamic disturbances and ischaemia. The latter processes have been repeatedly suggested to have a key role in its development and progression. In vivo experiments under hypoxic conditions could be models for the ischaemic deficits in ARM. Recent research has also linked ARM with gene polymorphisms. It is however unclear what triggers a person's gene susceptibility. In this manuscript, a linking hypothesis between aetiological factors including ischaemia and genetics and the development of early clinicopathological changes in ARM is proposed. New clinical psychophysical and electrophysiological tests are introduced that can detect ARM at an early stage. Models of early ARM based upon hemodynamic, photoreceptor and post-receptoral deficits are described and the mechanisms by which ischaemia may be involved as a final common pathway are considered. In neovascular age-related macular degeneration (neovascular AMD), ischaemia is thought to promote release of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) which induces chorioretinal neovascularisation. VEGF is critical in the maintenance of the healthy choriocapillaris. In the final section of the manuscript the documentation of the effect of new anti-VEGF treatments on retinal function in neovascular AMD is critically viewed.

The ultra-low friction of the articular surface is pH-dependent and is built on a hydrophobic underlay including a hypothesis on joint lubrication mechanism

In this study, the influence of pH on interfacial energy distributed over the phospholipids-bilayer surface model and the effect of hydrophobicity on coefficient of friction (f) were investigated by using microelectrophoresis. An important clinical implication of deficiency in hydrophobicity is the loss of phospholipids that is readily observed in osteoarthritis joints. This paper establishes the influence of pH on interfacial energy upon an increase f, which might be associated with a decrease of hydrophobicity of the articular surface.

Population structure of Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in southeast Asia: evidence for a single species hypothesis using mitochondrial DNA and wingshape data

Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.