Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

The molecular structure of the vanadate mineral mottramite [PbCu(VO4)(OH)] from Tsumeb, Namibia – a vibrational spectroscopic study

We have studied a mineral sample of mottramite PbCu(VO4)(OH) from Tsumeb, Namibia using a combination of scanning electron microscopy with EDX, Raman and infrared spectroscopy. Chemical analysis shows principally the elements V, Pb and Cu. Ca occurs as partial substitution of Pb as well as P and As in substitution to V. Minor amounts of Si and Cr were also observed. The Raman band of mottramite at 829 cm-1, is assigned to the ν1 symmetric (VO-4) ) stretching mode. The complexity of the spectra is attributed to the chemical composition of the Tsumeb mottramite. The ν3 antisymmetric vibrational mode of mottramite is observed as very low intensity bands at 716 and 747 cm-1. The series of Raman bands at 411, 439, 451 cm-1 and probably also the band at 500 cm-1 are assigned to the (VO-4) ν2 bending mode. The series of Raman bands at 293, 333 and 366 cm-1 are attributed to the (VO-4) ) ν4 bending modes. The ν3, ν3 and ν4 regions are complex for both minerals and this is attributed to symmetry reduction of the vanadate unit from Td to Cs.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Optical absorption near infrared and EPR studies of mottramite

Mottramite mineral originated from Tsumeb Corporation Mine, Tsumeb, Otavi, Namibia, is used in the present work. The mineral contains of vanadium and copper to the extent of 22.73% and 16.84% by weight respectively as V2O5 and CuO. An EPR study of sample confirms the presence of Cu(II) with g = 2.2. Optical absorption spectrum of mottramite indicates that Cu(II) is present in rhombic environment. NIR results are due to water fundamentals.

Near infrared spectroscopy of the smithsonite minerals

The importance of NIR spectroscopy has been successfully demonstrated in the present study of smithsonite minerals. The fundamental observations in the NIR spectra, in addition to the anions of OH- and CO32- are Fe and Cu in terms of cation content. These ions exhibit broad absorption bands ranging from 13000 to 7000cm-1 (0.77 to 1.43 µm). One broad diagnostic absorption feature centred at 9000 cm-1 (1.11 µm) is the result of ferrous ion spin allowed transition, (5T2g ® 5Eg). The splitting of this band (>1200 cm-1) is a common feature in all the spectra of the studied samples. The light green coloured sample from Namibia show two Cu(II) bands in NIR at 8050 and 10310 cm-1 (1.24 and 0.97 µm) are assigned to 2B1g ® 2A1g and 2B1g ® 2B2g transitions. The effects of structural cations substitution (Ca2+, Fe2+, Cu2+, Cd2+ and Zn2+) on band shifts in the electronic spectra1 region of 11000-7500 cm-1 (0.91-1.33 µm) and vibrational modes of OH- and CO32- anions in 7300 to 4000 cm-1 (1.37-2.50 µm) region were used to distinguish between the smithsonites.

A cross-cultural approach towards designing digital noticeboards with a remote aboriginal community

This working paper reflects upon the opportunities and challenges of designing a form of digital noticeboard system with a remote Aboriginal community that supports their aspirations for both internal and external communication. The project itself has evolved from a relationship built through ecological work between scientists and the local community on the Groote Eylandt archipelago to study native populations of animal species over the long term. In the course of this work the aspiration has emerged to explore how digital noticeboards might support communication on the island and externally. This paper introduces the community, the context and the history of the project. We then reflect upon the science project, its outcomes and a framework empowering the Aboriginal viewpoint, in order to draw lessons for extending what we see as a pragmatic and relationship based approach towards cross-cultural design.

"You help me improve my English, I'll teach you Physics!" Cuban teachers overseas

Lending teachers for two-year periods is one of the ways in which Cuba has been able to collaborate with other countries in their efforts to improve educational planning and practice. My field research in 2001 in Jamaica (March and November) and in Namibia (December) enabled me to obtain information about how Cuban teachers are being utilized, and about the educational implications of this project. In Jamaica, I interviewed 15 Cuban teachers in several schools and one in the vocational institute, as well as the Cuban project supervisor in charge of the 51 Cuban teachers. I also talked with officials at the Jamaican Ministry of Education to obtain an idea of the developmental needs in the various subjects that the Cubans had been asked to teach. In Namibia I interviewed personnel in the National Sports Directorate and the Cuban manager in charge of the sports education project. The chapter draws on these interviews to build a picture of how the program of collaboration is organized, and considers its postcolonial significance, in theory and in practice, as an example of South-South collaboration. The chapter contributes to a multilevel style of comparative education analysis based on microlevel qualitative fieldwork within a framework that compares cross-cultural issues and national policies. The discussion of the educational situation of the host countries suggests why Cuban teachers can contribute to meeting curricular needs, particularly in the areas of the sciences, mathematics, Spanish, and sports. The friendly and joking remark of one of the Cuban teachers to school students in Jamaica: “You help me improve my English, I’ll teach you Physics!” highlights the reciprocal potential of these cooperation projects, discussed in several chapters of this book.

Collaborative extension of biodiversity monitoring protocols in the bird watching community

Citizen science projects have demonstrated the advantages of people with limited relevant prior knowledge participating in research. However, there is a difference between engaging the general public in a scientific project and entering an established expert community to conduct research. This paper describes our ongoing acoustic biodiversity monitoring collaborations with the bird watching community. We report on findings gathered over six years from participation in bird walks, observing conservation efforts, and records of personal activities of experienced birders. We offer an empirical study into extending existing protocols through in-context collaborative design involving scientists and domain experts.

Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.