Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Significant Dot: The 1769 transit of Venus - a tale of astronomy, medicine and empire

This article places the 6 June 2012 transit of Venus in the context of James Cook’s voyage from England to the South Pacific to observe the 1769 transit of Venus. A description is given on how to use a computer program called Stellarium to ‘observe’ the 1769 transit of Venus exactly as Cook saw it from the island of Tahiti in the South Pacific.

Attitudes Towards Modern Living: The Mid-century Showrooms of Herman Miller and Knoll Associates

The independent manufacturer’s furniture showroom, as defined by Herman Miller and Knoll in the mid-twentieth century, presented a highly controlled and controllable context in which both companies and their designers familiarized American architects, designers and consumers with new ideas about living with modern furniture and architecture. Embracing consumerism within a modernist idiom, these mid-century furniture showrooms provided a unique interior typology wherein the reconciliation of modernism, mass-produced goods and personal expression was not only possible, but also accessible. Challenging long-held practices and beliefs within the nation’s conservative home furnishings market, Herman Miller and Knoll superseded retail buyers by reaching out directly to customers. The independently-run showrooms allowed both companies to engage their customers in a sophisticated and sustained proposition about the role of modern furniture and architecture in daily life. Examining the showrooms designed for Herman Miller and Knoll Associates during the latter 1940s and early 1950s, this article explores the ways in which these spaces were utilized as both laboratories and showcases, demonstrating the adaptability of modern furniture and interiors to individual lifestyles. Key words Charles and Ray Eames display design furniture Herman Miller Knoll Associates modernism showrooms

The Mid-Century Showroom: Knoll, Herman Miller and the Retail Exhibition of Modern American Design

Although occasionally illustrated and referenced in contemporary histories of modern furniture and design, there is surprisingly little critical discussion or consideration of the role of the showroom in the promotion and dissemination of modern design during the mid-twentieth century. In these years, when the American lifestyle was popularly articulated and forcefully propagandized, the furniture showroom served as a principle site of professional and public indoctrination. Appropriating display techniques from modern exhibition design to showcase the American lifestyle as an abstracted, spatially integrated art form, the showroom provided an unencumbered landscape ideally suited to camera’s lens and the public’s imagination. Leading modern American furniture manufacturers, such as Herman Miller and Knoll Associates collaborated with major cultural institutions as well as department stores and retailers to maximize exposure and consumer demand for their products. Through such integrated marketing and merchandising strategies, showrooms also contributed to the broader social project to educate American consumers about modern design and the advantages of modern living. Related to the many model home programs and “good design” exhibitions of the 1950s, the furniture showroom occupies a unique place within the history and discourse of the postwar era. The peculiarities of the furniture showroom and its position as a point of intersection between the trade and the consumer, the commercial and the cultural, and the aesthetic and the ideological form the focus of this study.