Beware of geeks bearing gifts? Online latent and untapped outlets for farmers' markets in South East Wales

This chapter sets out to identify related issues surrounding the use of Information and Computer Technology (ICT) in developing relationships between local food producers and consumers (both individuals and businesses). Three surveys were conducted in South- East Wales to consider the overlapping issues. The first concerned the role of ICT in relationships between farmers’ market (FMs) vendors and their traditional customers. The second survey examined potential new markets for farmers in the propensity of restaurants and hotels to buy locally, the types and sources of purchases made and the modes of advertising of these businesses. The final survey focused on the potential to expand local web- based selling of farmers’ produce in the future, by examining the potential market of high ICT- use small hotels. Despite the development of tailored ICT facilities, farmers’ market vendors and current individual customers are antipathetic to them. In addition, whilst there is a desire for more local produce particularly amongst independent local restaurants and hotels, this has not been capitalised upon and there is much work to be done even amongst high ICT-use small hotels, to expand the range and scope of farmers’ markets. This raises the need for creation and utilisation of enhanced logistics, payment and marketing management capacity available through a web- based presence, linked to promotion of FMs in business- to- business (B2B) links with local restaurants and hotels. This linked quantitative research highlights the potential value in substantial development of both web portals and supporting logistics to exploit this potential in the future.

Introduction

In this volume we compile and comment on a collection of some of the most important works on nascent entrepreneurship that have appeared in the last two decades. We do not go further back than that because up until1992 hardly any systematic research on the pre-operational stage of business creation was undertaken. In that year, the terms 'nascent entrepreneur' and 'nascent venture' appear for the first time in the research literature (Reynolds and Miller, Chapter l, 1992; Reynolds and White, 1992). This signals the emergence of a new research paradigm designed to study• business creation processes empirically at very early stages, before an operational firm has come into existence. The most central feature of this type of research is that it identifies a statistically representative sample of nascent entrepreneurs (NEs)- people engaged in ongoing but not yet operational business start-ups- via screening interviews with a very large random sample of adults. The overarching research questions pursued in this emerging research tradition are the following: 1. What proportion of individuals (in various population subgroups) are trying to start a new business at any given time? 2. What led them to engage in the creation of a new business? 3. What characteristics and behaviors associated with the founder(s), the venture, the environment and the process are associated with persistence, progress and success in trying to start a new business?

The largest eruptions in Earth's history

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) host the most frequently recurring, largest volume basaltic & silicic eruptions on Earth. The largest volume (>1000 km^3 DRE) and magnitude (>M8) eruptions produce areally extensive (10^4-10^5 km^2) basaltic flow fields and sills, and silicic ignimbrites that are the main LIP building blocks. Basaltic and silicic eruptions have comparable magnitudes, but silicic ignimbrite volumes may be significantly underestimated due to unrecognized and correlated, but voluminous co-ignimbrite ash deposits. Magma composition is no barrier to individual eruption volume. Despite similar magnitudes, flood basaltic and silicic eruptions are very different in eruption mechanism, duration, intensity, vent configuration, and emplacement style. Flood basalts are dominantly effusive Hawaiian-Strombolian, with magma discharge rates of ~10^7-10^8 kg s^-1, and produce dominantly compound pahoehoe flow fields over eruption durations most likely >10 yrs. Most silicic eruptions are moderately to highly explosive, producing cocurrent pyroclastic fountains (rarely Plinian) and suggested to be of short-duration (hours to days) and high intensity (~10^11 kg s^-1). Eruption frequencies are elevated for largemagnitude eruptions of both magma types during LIP formation. In basalt-dominated provinces, large magnitude (>M8) eruptions have much shorter recurrence intervals (10^3-10^4 years) than similar magnitude silicic eruptions (~10^5 years). The huge volumes of magma erupted rapidly in LIPs raises several unresolved issues in terms of locus of magma generation and storage (if any) in the crust prior to eruption, the paths and rates of ascent from magma reservoirs to the surface, and relative aerosol contributions to the stratosphere from the flood basaltic and rhyolitic eruptions.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention to increase physical activity among mothers with young children: A Markov model informed by a randomised controlled trial

Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention. MobileMums is a 12-week programme which assists mothers with young children to be more physically active, primarily through the use of personalised SMS text-messages. Design: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model to estimate and compare the costs and consequences of MobileMums and usual care. Setting: This study considers the cost-effectiveness of MobileMums in Queensland, Australia. Participants: A hypothetical cohort of over 36 000 women with a child under 1 year old is considered. These women are expected to be eligible and willing to participate in the intervention in Queensland, Australia. Data sources: The model was informed by the effectiveness results from a 9-month two-arm community-based randomised controlled trial undertaken in 2011 and registered retrospectively with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12611000481976). Baseline characteristics for the model cohort, treatment effects and resource utilisation were all informed by this trial. Main outcome measures: The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of MobileMums compared with usual care. Results: The intervention is estimated to lead to an increase of 131 QALYs for an additional cost to the health system of 1.1 million Australian dollars (AUD). The expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MobileMums is 8608 AUD per QALY gained. MobileMums has a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD. Varying modelling assumptions has little effect on this result. Conclusions: At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD, MobileMums would likely be a cost-effective use of healthcare resources in Queensland, Australia. Trial registration number: Australian Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12611000481976.

Attitudes Towards Modern Living: The Mid-century Showrooms of Herman Miller and Knoll Associates

The independent manufacturer’s furniture showroom, as defined by Herman Miller and Knoll in the mid-twentieth century, presented a highly controlled and controllable context in which both companies and their designers familiarized American architects, designers and consumers with new ideas about living with modern furniture and architecture. Embracing consumerism within a modernist idiom, these mid-century furniture showrooms provided a unique interior typology wherein the reconciliation of modernism, mass-produced goods and personal expression was not only possible, but also accessible. Challenging long-held practices and beliefs within the nation’s conservative home furnishings market, Herman Miller and Knoll superseded retail buyers by reaching out directly to customers. The independently-run showrooms allowed both companies to engage their customers in a sophisticated and sustained proposition about the role of modern furniture and architecture in daily life. Examining the showrooms designed for Herman Miller and Knoll Associates during the latter 1940s and early 1950s, this article explores the ways in which these spaces were utilized as both laboratories and showcases, demonstrating the adaptability of modern furniture and interiors to individual lifestyles. Key words Charles and Ray Eames display design furniture Herman Miller Knoll Associates modernism showrooms

The Mid-Century Showroom: Knoll, Herman Miller and the Retail Exhibition of Modern American Design

Although occasionally illustrated and referenced in contemporary histories of modern furniture and design, there is surprisingly little critical discussion or consideration of the role of the showroom in the promotion and dissemination of modern design during the mid-twentieth century. In these years, when the American lifestyle was popularly articulated and forcefully propagandized, the furniture showroom served as a principle site of professional and public indoctrination. Appropriating display techniques from modern exhibition design to showcase the American lifestyle as an abstracted, spatially integrated art form, the showroom provided an unencumbered landscape ideally suited to camera’s lens and the public’s imagination. Leading modern American furniture manufacturers, such as Herman Miller and Knoll Associates collaborated with major cultural institutions as well as department stores and retailers to maximize exposure and consumer demand for their products. Through such integrated marketing and merchandising strategies, showrooms also contributed to the broader social project to educate American consumers about modern design and the advantages of modern living. Related to the many model home programs and “good design” exhibitions of the 1950s, the furniture showroom occupies a unique place within the history and discourse of the postwar era. The peculiarities of the furniture showroom and its position as a point of intersection between the trade and the consumer, the commercial and the cultural, and the aesthetic and the ideological form the focus of this study.