Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

A spectroscopic investigation of pigment and ceramic samples from Copán, Honduras

A combination of micro-Raman spectroscopy, micro-infrared spectroscopy and SEM–EDX was employed to characterize decorative pigments on Classic Maya ceramics from Copán, Honduras. Variation in red paint mixtures was correlated with changing ceramic types and improvements in process and firing techniques. We have confirmed the use of specular hematite on Coner ceramics by the difference in intensities of Raman bands. Different compositions of brown paint were correlated with imported and local wares. The carbon-iron composition of the ceramic type, Surlo Brown, was confirmed. By combining micro-Raman analysis with micro-ATR infrared and SEM–EDX, we have achieved a more comprehensive characterization of the paint mixtures. These spectroscopic techniques can be used non-destructively on raw samples as a rapid confirmation of ceramic type.

Limits of spherical blur determined with an adaptive optics mirror

We extended an earlier study (Vision Research, 45, 1967–1974, 2005) in which we investigated limits at which induced blur of letter targets becomes noticeable, troublesome and objectionable. Here we used a deformable adaptive optics mirror to vary spherical defocus for conditions of a white background with correction of astigmatism; a white background with reduction of all aberrations other than defocus; and a monochromatic background with reduction of all aberrations other than defocus. We used seven cyclopleged subjects, lines of three high-contrast letters as targets, 3–6 mm artificial pupils, and 0.1–0.6 logMAR letter sizes. Subjects used a method of adjustment to control the defocus component of the mirror to set the 'just noticeable', 'just troublesome' and 'just objectionable' defocus levels. For the white-no adaptive optics condition combined with 0.1 logMAR letter size, mean 'noticeable' blur limits were ±0.30, ±0.24 and ±0.23 D at 3, 4 and 6 mm pupils, respectively. White-adaptive optics and monochromatic-adaptive optics conditions reduced blur limits by 8% and 20%, respectively. Increasing pupil size from 3–6 mm decreased blur limits by 29%, and increasing letter size increased blur limits by 79%. Ratios of troublesome to noticeable, and of objectionable to noticeable, blur limits were 1.9 and 2.7 times, respectively. The study shows that the deformable mirror can be used to vary defocus in vision experiments. Overall, the results of noticeable, troublesome and objectionable blur agreed well with those of the previous study. Attempting to reduce higher-order aberrations or chromatic aberrations, reduced blur limits to only a small extent.

The influence of oblique viewing on axial and peripheral refraction for emmetropes and myopes

Refraction may be affected by the forces of lids and extraocular muscles when eye direction and head direction are not aligned (oblique viewing) which might potentially influence past findings on peripheral refraction of the eye. We investigated the effect of oblique viewing on axial and peripheral refraction. In a first experiment, cycloplegic axial refractions were determined when subjects' heads were positioned to look straight-ahead through an open-view autorefractor and when the heads were rotated to the right or left by 30° with compensatory eye rotation (oblique viewing). Subjects were 16 young emmetropes (18–35 years), 22 young myopes (19–36 years) and 15 old emmetropes (45–60 years). In a second experiment, cycloplegic peripheral refraction measurements were taken out to ±34° horizontally from fixation while the subjects rotated their heads to match the peripheral refraction angles (eye in primary position with respect to the head) or the eyes were rotated with respect to the head (oblique viewing). Subjects were 10 emmetropes and 10 myopes. We did not find any significant changes in axial or peripheral refraction upon oblique viewing for any of the subject groups. In general for the range of horizontal angles used, it is not critical whether or not the eye is rotated with respect to the head during axial or peripheral refraction.

Numerical investigations of linear least squares methods for derivative estimation

The results of a numerical investigation into the errors for least squares estimates of function gradients are presented. The underlying algorithm is obtained by constructing a least squares problem using a truncated Taylor expansion. An error bound associated with this method contains in its numerator terms related to the Taylor series remainder, while its denominator contains the smallest singular value of the least squares matrix. Perhaps for this reason the error bounds are often found to be pessimistic by several orders of magnitude. The circumstance under which these poor estimates arise is elucidated and an empirical correction of the theoretical error bounds is conjectured and investigated numerically. This is followed by an indication of how the conjecture is supported by a rigorous argument.

Comparison of high-speed videokeratoscopy and ultrasound distance sensing for measuring the longitudinal corneal apex movements

Two different methods to measure binocular longitudinal corneal apex movements were synchronously applied. High-speed videokeratoscopy at a sampling frequency of 15 Hz and a customdesigned ultrasound distance sensor at 100 Hz were used for the left and the right eye, respectively. Four healthy subjects participated in the study. Simultaneously, cardiac electric cycle (ECG) was registered for each subject at 100 Hz. Each measurement took 20 s. Subjects were asked to suppress blinking during the measurements. A rigid headrest and a bite-bar were used to minimize undesirable head movements. Time, frequency and time-frequency representations of the acquired signals were obtained to establish their temporal and spectral contents. Coherence analysis was used to estimate the correlation between the measured signals. The results showed close correlation between both corneal apex movements and the cardiopulmonary system. Unraveling these relationships could lead to better understanding of interactions between ocular biomechanics and vision. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods in the context of measuring longitudinal movements of the corneal apex are outlined.

The statistics of refractive error maps : managing wavefront aberration analysis without Zernike polynomials

The refractive error of a human eye varies across the pupil and therefore may be treated as a random variable. The probability distribution of this random variable provides a means for assessing the main refractive properties of the eye without the necessity of traditional functional representation of wavefront aberrations. To demonstrate this approach, the statistical properties of refractive error maps are investigated. Closed-form expressions are derived for the probability density function (PDF) and its statistical moments for the general case of rotationally-symmetric aberrations. A closed-form expression for a PDF for a general non-rotationally symmetric wavefront aberration is difficult to derive. However, for specific cases, such as astigmatism, a closed-form expression of the PDF can be obtained. Further, interpretation of the distribution of the refractive error map as well as its moments is provided for a range of wavefront aberrations measured in real eyes. These are evaluated using a kernel density and sample moments estimators. It is concluded that the refractive error domain allows non-functional analysis of wavefront aberrations based on simple statistics in the form of its sample moments. Clinicians may find this approach to wavefront analysis easier to interpret due to the clinical familiarity and intuitive appeal of refractive error maps.

Determining the zone of reflection for posterior corneal surface comparison phakometry

Although comparison phakometry has been used by a number of studies to measure posterior corneal shape, these studies have not calculated the size of the posterior corneal zones of reflection they assessed. This paper develops paraxial equations for calculating posterior corneal zones of reflection, based on standard keratometry equations and equivalent mirror theory. For targets used in previous studies, posterior corneal reflection zone sizes were calculated using paraxial equations and using exact ray tracing, assuming spherical and aspheric corneal surfaces. Paraxial methods and exact ray tracing methods give similar estimates for reflection zone sizes less than 2 mm, but for larger zone sizes ray tracing methods should be used.

Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equation model of wages and prices for Australia, underpinned by a competing claims framework of imperfect competition. Two separate co-integrating relationships for wages and prices are identified by imposing the economic hypotheses implied by the theory. The steady-state relationships for wages and prices are then embedded in a parsimonious, dynamic wage-price model. The final model is both simple and parsimonious and able to describe the process of wage and price inflation in Australia

The lived experience of families living with spinal cord disability in Northeast Thailand

The experience of disability in the global South remains relatively underreported in spite of the greater focus on disability as both an impediment to development and frequently as a result of development. This article reports a qualitative study using ethnographic techniques undertaken in the province of Khon Kaen in Northeast Thailand. The primary participants were men who had experienced a severe spinal cord injury at a time when they were breadwinners, a role which is significant in the context of a modernising state that is an active participant in a global economy. The experiences, constructions and beliefs of these men, their family carers, and other informants illustrate the complex ways in which social and cultural factors interact with the opportunities, challenges and constraints of transition to modernity. The findings, interpreted according to the 'three bodies' approach, illustrate the intersection of colonising effects, governmentality and resistance, and embodied experience in a cultural context.

Planning and implementing trajectories for autonomous underwater vehicles to track evolving ocean processes based on predictions from a regional ocean model

Path planning and trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community because automated data collection is becoming more prevalent. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations to perform data collection. In this paper, we present algorithms that determine paths for AUVs to track evolving features of interest in the ocean by considering the output of predictive ocean models. While traversing the computed path, the vehicle provides near-real-time, in situ measurements back to the model, with the intent to increase the skill of future predictions in the local region. The results presented here extend prelim- inary developments of the path planning portion of an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. This extension is the incorporation of multiple vehicles to track the centroid and the boundary of the extent of a feature of interest. Similar algorithms to those presented here are under development to consider additional locations for multiple types of features. The primary focus here is on algorithm development utilizing model predictions to assist in solving the motion planning problem of steering an AUV to high-valued locations, with respect to the data desired. We discuss the design technique to generate the paths, present simulation results and provide experimental data from field deployments for tracking dynamic features by use of an AUV in the Southern California coastal ocean.