Rethinking the value of simulation methods in the information systems research field : a call for reconstructing contribution for a broader audience

The impact of simulation methods for social research in the Information Systems (IS) research field remains low. A concern is our field is inadequately leveraging the unique strengths of simulation methods. Although this low impact is frequently attributed to methodological complexity, we offer an alternative explanation – the poor construction of research value. We argue a more intuitive value construction, better connected to the knowledge base, will facilitate increased value and broader appreciation. Meta-analysis of studies published in IS journals over the last decade evidences the low impact. To facilitate value construction, we synthesize four common types of simulation research contribution: Analyzer, Tester, Descriptor, and Theorizer. To illustrate, we employ the proposed typology to describe how each type of value is structured in simulation research and connect each type to instances from IS literature, thereby making these value types and their construction visible and readily accessible to the general IS community.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Impact of coronary tortuosity on coronary pressure: Numerical simulation study

Background: Coronary tortuosity (CT) is a common coronary angiographic finding. Whether CT leads to an apparent reduction in coronary pressure distal to the tortuous segment of the coronary artery is still unknown. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of CT on coronary pressure distribution by numerical simulation. Methods: 21 idealized models were created to investigate the influence of coronary tortuosity angle (CTA) and coronary tortuosity number (CTN) on coronary pressure distribution. A 2D incompressible Newtonian flow was assumed and the computational simulation was performed using finite volume method. CTA of 30°, 60°, 90°, 120° and CTN of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 were discussed under both steady and pulsatile conditions, and the changes of outlet pressure and inlet velocity during the cardiac cycle were considered. Results: Coronary pressure distribution was affected both by CTA and CTN. We found that the pressure drop between the start and the end of the CT segment decreased with CTA, and the length of the CT segment also declined with CTA. An increase in CTN resulted in an increase in the pressure drop. Conclusions: Compared to no-CT, CT can results in more decrease of coronary blood pressure in dependence on the severity of tortuosity and severe CT may cause myocardial ischemia.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Investigation of the effects of various types of wind turbine generators on power-system stability

It has become more and more demanding to investigate the impacts of wind farms on power system operation as ever-increasing penetration levels of wind power have the potential to bring about a series of dynamic stability problems for power systems. This paper undertakes such an investigation through investigating the small signal and transient stabilities of power systems that are separately integrated with three types of wind turbine generators (WTGs), namely the squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG), the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), and the permanent magnet generator (PMG). To examine the effects of these WTGs on a power system with regard to its stability under different operating conditions, a selected synchronous generator (SG) of the well-known Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC three-unit nine-bus system and an eight-unit 24-bus system is replaced in turn by each type of WTG with the same capacity. The performances of the power system in response to the disturbances are then systematically compared. Specifically, the following comparisons are undertaken: (1) performances of the power system before and after the integration of the WTGs; and (2) performances of the power system and the associated consequences when the SCIG, DFIG, or PMG are separately connected to the system. These stability case studies utilize both eigenvalue analysis and dynamic time-domain simulation methods.

Trans-scale granular modelling of cytoskeleton: A mini-review

Living cells are the functional unit of organs that controls reactions to their exterior. However, the mechanics of living cells can be difficult to characterize due to the crypticity of their microscale structures and associated dynamic cellular processes. Fortunately, multiscale modelling provides a powerful simulation tool that can be used to study the mechanical properties of these soft hierarchical, biological systems. This paper reviews recent developments in hierarchical multiscale modeling technique that aimed at understanding cytoskeleton mechanics. Discussions are expanded with respects to cytoskeletal components including: intermediate filaments, microtubules and microfilament networks. The mechanical performance of difference cytoskeleton components are discussed with respect to their structural and material properties. Explicit granular simulation methods are adopted with different coarse-grained strategies for these cytoskeleton components and the simulation details are introduced in this review.

Tutorial on NK model

NK model, proposed by Kauffman (1993), is a strong simulation framework to study competing dynamics. It has been applied in some social science fields, for instance, organization science. However, like many other simulation methods, NK model has not received much attention from Management Information Systems (MIS) discipline. This tutorial, thus, is trying to introduce NK model in a simple way and encourage related studies. To demonstrate how NK model works, this tutorial reproduces several Levinthal’s (1997) experiments. Besides, this tutorial attempts to make clear the relevance between NK model and agent-based modeling (ABM). The relevance can be a theoretical basis to further develop NK model framework for other research scenarios. For example, this tutorial provides an NK model solution to study IT value cocreation process by extending network structure and agent interactions.

Traffic and climate change impacts on water quality : measuring build-up and wash-off of heavy metals and petroleum hydrocarbons

Understanding the impacts of traffic and climate change on water quality helps decision makers to develop better policy and plans for dealing with unsustainable urban and transport development. This chapter presents detailed methodologies developed for sample collection and testing for heavy metals and total petroleum hydrocarbons, as part of a research study to investigate the impacts of climate change and changes to urban traffic characteristics on pollutant build-up and wash-off from urban road surfaces. Cadmium, chromium, nickel, copper, lead, iron, aluminium, manganese and zinc were the target heavy metals, and selected gasoline and diesel range organics were the target total petroleum hydrocarbons for this study. The study sites were selected to encompass the urban traffic characteristics of the Gold Coast region, Australia. An improved sample collection method referred to as ‘the wet and dry vacuum system’ for the pollutant build-up, and an effective wash-off plan to incorporate predicted changes to rainfall characteristics due to climate change, were implemented. The novel approach to sample collection for pollutant build-up helped to maintain the integrity of collection efficiency. The wash-off plan helped to incorporate the predicted impacts of climate change in the Gold Coast region. The robust experimental methods developed will help in field sample collection and chemical testing of different stormwater pollutants in build-up and wash-off.