Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among oil prices, clean energy stock prices, and technology stock prices, endogenously controlling for structural changes in the market. To this end, we apply Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to the economic system consisting of oil prices, clean energy and technology stock prices, and interest rates. The results indicate that there was a structural change in late 2007, a period in which there was a significant increase in the price of oil. In contrast to the previous studies, we find a positive relationship between oil prices and clean energy prices after structural breaks. There also appears to be a similarity in terms of the market response to both clean energy stock prices and technology stock prices. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Do socially responsible investment indexes outperform conventional indexes?

The question of whether more Socially Responsible (SR) firms outperform or underperform other conventional firms has been debated in the economic literature. In this study, using the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) indexes and conventional stock indexes in the US, the UK and Japan, first and second moments of firm performance distributions are estimated based on the Markov Switching (MS) model. We find two distinct regimes (bear and bull) in the SRI markets as well as the stock markets for all the three countries. These regimes occur with the same timing in both types of market. No statistical difference in means and volatilities generated from the SRI indexes and conventional indexes in either region was found. Furthermore, we find strong comovements between the two indexes in both the regimes.

Universal codes from switching strategies

We discuss algorithms for combining sequential prediction strategies, a task which can be viewed as a natural generalisation of the concept of universal coding. We describe a graphical language based on Hidden Markov Models for defining prediction strategies, and we provide both existing and new models as examples. The models include efficient, parameterless models for switching between the input strategies over time, including a model for the case where switches tend to occur in clusters, and finally a new model for the scenario where the prediction strategies have a known relationship, and where jumps are typically between strongly related ones. This last model is relevant for coding time series data where parameter drift is expected. As theoretical contributions we introduce an interpolation construction that is useful in the development and analysis of new algorithms, and we establish a new sophisticated lemma for analysing the individual sequence regret of parameterised models.

Power network in the loop : subsystem testing using a switching amplifier

“Hardware in the Loop” (HIL) testing is widely used in the automotive industry. The sophisticated electronic control units used for vehicle control are usually tested and evaluated using HIL-simulations. The HIL increases the degree of realistic testing of any system. Moreover, it helps in designing the structure and control of the system under test so that it works effectively in the situations that will be encountered in the system. Due to the size and the complexity of interaction within a power network, most research is based on pure simulation. To validate the performance of physical generator or protection system, most testing is constrained to very simple power network. This research, however, examines a method to test power system hardware within a complex virtual environment using the concept of the HIL. The HIL testing for electronic control units and power systems protection device can be easily performed at signal level. But performance of power systems equipments, such as distributed generation systems can not be evaluated at signal level using HIL testing. The HIL testing for power systems equipments is termed here as ‘Power Network in the Loop’ (PNIL). PNIL testing can only be performed at power level and requires a power amplifier that can amplify the simulation signal to the power level. A power network is divided in two parts. One part represents the Power Network Under Test (PNUT) and the other part represents the rest of the complex network. The complex network is simulated in real time simulator (RTS) while the PNUT is connected to the Voltage Source Converter (VSC) based power amplifier. Two way interaction between the simulator and amplifier is performed using analog to digital (A/D) and digital to analog (D/A) converters. The power amplifier amplifies the current or voltage signal of simulator to the power level and establishes the power level interaction between RTS and PNUT. In the first part of this thesis, design and control of a VSC based power amplifier that can amplify a broadband voltage signal is presented. A new Hybrid Discontinuous Control method is proposed for the amplifier. This amplifier can be used for several power systems applications. In the first part of the thesis, use of this amplifier in DSTATCOM and UPS applications are presented. In the later part of this thesis the solution of network in the loop testing with the help of this amplifier is reported. The experimental setup for PNIL testing is built in the laboratory of Queensland University of Technology and the feasibility of PNIL testing has been evaluated using the experimental studies. In the last section of this thesis a universal load with power regenerative capability is designed. This universal load is used to test the DG system using PNIL concepts. This thesis is composed of published/submitted papers that form the chapters in this dissertation. Each paper has been published or submitted during the period of candidature. Chapter 1 integrates all the papers to provide a coherent view of wide bandwidth switching amplifier and its used in different power systems applications specially for the solution of power systems testing using PNIL.

A database ATP simulated waveforms of shunt reactor switching cases with vacuum breakers on motor circuits

This paper presents a database ATP (Alternative Transient Program) simulated waveforms for shunt reactor switching cases with vacuum breakers in motor circuits following interruption of the starting current. The targeted objective is to provide multiple reignition simulated data for diagnostic and prognostic algorithms development, but also to help ATP users with practical study cases and component data compilation for shunt reactor switching. This method can be easily applied with different data for the different dielectric curves of circuit-breakers and networks. This paper presents design details, discusses some of the available cases and the advantages of such simulated data.