Quantifying economic values of coastal and marine ecosystem services and assessing their use in decision-making : applications in New Caledonia and Australia

This thesis deals with the issues of quantifying economic values of coastal and marine ecosystem services and assessing their use in decision-making. The first analytical part of the thesis focuses on estimating non-market use and non-use values, with an application in New-Caledonia using Discrete Choice Experiment. The second part examines how and to what extent the economic valuation of ecosystem services is used in coastal management decision-making with an application in Australia. Using a multi-criteria analysis, the relative importance of ecological, social and economic evaluation criteria is also assessed in the context of coastal development.

The Catlin Seaview Survey – kilometre-scale seascape assessment, and monitoring of coral reef ecosystems

1.Marine ecosystems provide critically important goods and services to society, and hence their accelerated degradation underpins an urgent need to take rapid, ambitious and informed decisions regarding their conservation and management. 2.The capacity, however, to generate the detailed field data required to inform conservation planning at appropriate scales is limited by time and resource consuming methods for collecting and analysing field data at the large scales required. 3.The ‘Catlin Seaview Survey’, described here, introduces a novel framework for large-scale monitoring of coral reefs using high-definition underwater imagery collected using customized underwater vehicles in combination with computer vision and machine learning. This enables quantitative and geo-referenced outputs of coral reef features such as habitat types, benthic composition, and structural complexity (rugosity) to be generated across multiple kilometre-scale transects with a spatial resolution ranging from 2 to 6 m2. 4.The novel application of technology described here has enormous potential to contribute to our understanding of coral reefs and associated impacts by underpinning management decisions with kilometre-scale measurements of reef health. 5.Imagery datasets from an initial survey of 500 km of seascape are freely available through an online tool called the Catlin Global Reef Record. Outputs from the image analysis using the technologies described here will be updated on the online repository as work progresses on each dataset. 6.Case studies illustrate the utility of outputs as well as their potential to link to information from remote sensing. The potential implications of the innovative technologies on marine resource management and conservation are also discussed, along with the accuracy and efficiency of the methodologies deployed.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Coastal development, coral reefs and marine life in Asia: Tourism's double-edged sword

A large proportion of the world's population, including those of Asian countries, live in close proximity to the coastline. Coastlines are being developed at a £aster rate than ever before and there is now a growing body of literature to show that such activities are affecting the quality of coastal ecosystems and its wildlife (see, for example, Jennings, 2004; Siler et al., 2014; Duke eta!., 2007). This in turn is impacting negatively on the fishing and the tourism industries, amongst others. Millions of people depend on these sectors for their livelihoods and, unsustainable development can only make the plight of those who rely on these resources worse. The tourism industry in the coastal regions is particularly at risk since the industry relies heavily on coastal ecosystems to attract visitors. This chapter discusses the strong links that exist between coastal development, tourism, marine ecosystems and its wildlife, drawing attention to two well-known species widely used in tourism, namely whales and sea turtles, and discussing their conservation in relation to tourism. The chapter is divided into six sections. The second section examines why it is important to strike a balance between coastal development and protecting ecosystems. In this section, we discuss the ma.ior identified causes of coastal ecosystem degradation from the published literature, and the third section focuses attention on tourism development in the Asian region, which is one of the major reasons for coastal degradation. A diagrammatic approach is used to illustrate that planning of coastal tourism development which takes into account environmental impacts could result in economic benefits to the areas and regions concerned. The negative impacts on tourism when coastal ecosystems are damaged are discussed in section four. Section five shows the economic benefits resulting from sea turtle and whale watching-based tourism in Australia, and section six examines tourism as a conservation tool. In this section, the differing experiences of sea turtle tourism in Sri Lanka and Australia are discussed based on our published work. The final section concludes.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management

Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as a useful decision-support tool for ecosystem management. However, the extent to which economic valuation of ecosystem services is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of ecosystem services economic valuation in support of coastal and marine management are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across decision-makers groups. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use it. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent’s use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other existing works, and are instructive to reflect on the issue of the usefulness of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also confirm that the survey-based approach developed in this application represents a sound strategy to examine this issue at various scales and management levels.

Glycaemic index and glycaemic load intake patterns in older Australian women

Aims: Dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) have been associated with risk of chronic diseases, yet limited research exists on patterns of consumption in Australia. Our aims were to investigate glycemic carbohydrate in a population of older women, identify major contributing food sources, and determine low, moderate and high ranges. Methods: Subjects were 459 Brisbane women aged 42-81 years participating in the Longitudinal Assessment of Ageing in Women. Diet history interviews were used to assess usual diet and results were analysed into energy and macronutrients using the FoodWorks dietary analysis program combined with a customised GI database. Results: Mean±SD dietary GI was 55.6±4.4% and mean dietary GL was 115±25. A low GI in this population was ≤52.0, corresponding to the lowest quintile of dietary GI, and a low GL was ≤95. GI showed a quadratic relationship with age (P=0.01), with a slight decrease observed in women aged in their 60’s relative to younger or older women. GL decreased linearly with age (P<0.001). Bread was the main contributor to carbohydrate and dietary GL (17.1% and 20.8%, respectively), followed by fruit (15.5% and 14.2%), and dairy for carbohydrate (9.0%) or breakfast cereals for GL (8.9%). Conclusions: In this population, dietary GL decreased with increasing age, however this was likely to be a result of higher energy intakes in younger women. Focus on careful selection of lower GI items within bread and breakfast cereal food groups would be an effective strategy for decreasing dietary GL in this population of older women.

The cost effectiveness of Naltrexone added to cognitive-behavioral therapy in the treatment of alcohol dependence

he purpose of this study was to evaluate the comparative cost of treating alcohol dependence with either cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) alone or CBT combined with naltrexone (CBT+naltrexone). Two hundred ninety-eight outpatients dependent on alcohol who were consecutively treated for alcohol dependence participated in this study. One hundred seven (36%) patients received adjunctive pharmacotherapy (CBT+naltrexone). The Drug Abuse Treatment Cost Analysis Program was used to estimate treatment costs. Adjunctive pharmacotherapy (CBT+naltrexone) introduced an additional treatment cost and was 54% more expensive than CBT alone. When treatment abstinence rates (36.1% CBT; 62.6% CBT+naltrexone) were applied to cost effectiveness ratios, CBT+naltrexone demonstrated an advantage over CBT alone. There were no differences between groups on a preference-based health measure (SF-6D). In this treatment center, to achieve 100 abstainers over a 12-week program, 280 patients require CBT compared with 160 CBT+naltrexone. The dominant choice was CBT+naltrexone based on modest economic advantages and significant efficiencies in the numbers needed to treat.

On democracy

If one clear argument emerged from my doctoral thesis in political science, it is that there is no agreement as to what democracy is. There are over 40 different varieties of democracy ranging from those in the mainstream with subtle or minute differences to those playing by themselves in the corner. And many of these various types of democracy are very well argued, empirically supported, and highly relevant to certain polities. The irony is that the thing which all of these democratic varieties or the ‘basic democracy’ that all other forms of democracy stem from, is elusive. There is no international agreement in the literature or in political practice as to what ‘basic democracy’ is and that is problematic as many of us use the word ‘democracy’ every day and it is a concept of tremendous importance internationally. I am still uncertain as to why this problem has not been resolved before by far greater minds than my own, and it may have something to do with the recent growth in democratic theory this past decade and the innovative areas of thought my thesis required, but I think I’ve got the answer. By listing each type of democracy and filling the column next to this list with the literature associated with these various styles of democracy, I amassed a large and comprehensive body of textual data. My research intended to find out what these various styles of democracy had in common and to create a taxonomy (like the ‘tree of life’ in biology) of democracy to attempt at showing how various styles of democracy have ‘evolved’ over the past 5000 years.ii I then ran a word frequency analysis program or a piece of software that counts the 100 most commonly used words in the texts. This is where my logic came in as I had to make sense of these words. How did they answer what the most fundamental commonalities are between 40 different styles of democracy? I used a grounded theory analysis which required that I argue my way through these words to form a ‘theory’ or plausible explanation as to why these particular words and not others are the important ones for answering the question. It came down to the argument that all 40 styles of democracy analysed have the following in common 1) A concept of a citizenry. 2) A concept of sovereignty. 3) A concept of equality. 4) A concept of law. 5) A concept of communication. 6) And a concept of selecting officials. Thus, democracy is a defined citizenry with its own concept of sovereignty which it exercises through the institutions which support the citizenry’s understandings of equality, law, communication, and the selection of officials. Once any of these 6 concepts are defined in a particular way it creates a style of democracy. From this, we can also see that there can be more than one style of democracy active in a particular government as a citizenry is composed of many different aggregates with their own understandings of the six concepts.

Flexural behaviour and design of the new built-up LiteSteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills. The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using a combined cold-forming and electric resistance welding process. OneSteel Australian Tube Mills is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in a range of applications, such as floor bearers. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity and thus extend their applications further. However, the structural behaviour of built-up beams is not well understood. Many steel design codes include guidelines for connecting two channels to form a built-up I-section including the required longitudinal spacing of connections. But these rules were found to be inadequate in some applications. Currently the safe spans of builtup beams are determined based on twice the moment capacity of a single section. Research has shown that these guidelines are conservative. Therefore large scale lateral buckling tests and advanced numerical analyses were undertaken to investigate the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs connected by fasteners (bolts) at various longitudinal spacings under uniform moment conditions. In this research an experimental investigation was first undertaken to study the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs including its buckling characteristics. This experimental study included tensile coupon tests, initial geometric imperfection measurements and lateral buckling tests. The initial geometric imperfection measurements taken on several back to back LSB specimens showed that the back to back bolting process is not likely to alter the imperfections, and the measured imperfections are well below the fabrication tolerance limits. Twelve large scale lateral buckling tests were conducted to investigate the behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs with various longitudinal fastener spacings under uniform moment conditions. Tests also included two single LSB specimens. Test results showed that the back to back LSBs gave higher moment capacities in comparison with single LSBs, and the fastener spacing influenced the ultimate moment capacities. As the fastener spacing was reduced the ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs increased. Finite element models of back to back LSBs with varying fastener spacings were then developed to conduct a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs. Two finite element models were developed, namely experimental and ideal finite element models. The models included the complex contact behaviour between LSB web elements and intermittently fastened bolted connections along the web elements. They were validated by comparing their results with experimental results and numerical results obtained from an established buckling analysis program called THIN-WALL. These comparisons showed that the developed models could accurately predict both the elastic lateral distortional buckling moments and the non-linear ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs. Therefore the ideal finite element models incorporating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and uniform moment conditions were used in a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back LSB members. In the detailed parametric study, both elastic buckling and nonlinear analyses of back to back LSBs were conducted for 13 LSB sections with varying spans and fastener spacings. Finite element analysis results confirmed that the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) are very conservative while the new design rules developed by Anapayan and Mahendran (2009a) for single LSB members were also found to be conservative. Thus new member capacity design rules were developed for back to back LSB members as a function of non-dimensional member slenderness. New empirical equations were also developed to aid in the calculation of elastic lateral distortional buckling moments of intermittently fastened back to back LSBs. Design guidelines were developed for the maximum fastener spacing of back to back LSBs in order to optimise the use of fasteners. A closer fastener spacing of span/6 was recommended for intermediate spans and some long spans where the influence of fastener spacing was found to be high. In the last phase of this research, a detailed investigation was conducted to investigate the potential use of different types of connections and stiffeners in improving the flexural strength of back to back LSB members. It was found that using transverse web stiffeners was the most cost-effective and simple strengthening method. It is recommended that web stiffeners are used at the supports and every third points within the span, and their thickness is in the range of 3 to 5 mm depending on the size of LSB section. The use of web stiffeners eliminated most of the lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improved the ultimate moment capacities. A suitable design equation was developed to calculate the elastic lateral buckling moments of back to back LSBs with the above recommended web stiffener configuration while the same design rules developed for unstiffened back to back LSBs were recommended to calculate the ultimate moment capacities.

Prioritizing land and sea conservation investments to protect coral reefs

Background: Coral reefs have exceptional biodiversity, support the livelihoods of millions of people, and are threatened by multiple human activities on land (e.g. farming) and in the sea (e.g. overfishing). Most conservation efforts occur at local scales and, when effective, can increase the resilience of coral reefs to global threats such as climate change (e.g. warming water and ocean acidification). Limited resources for conservation require that we efficiently prioritize where and how to best sustain coral reef ecosystems.----- ----- Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we develop the first prioritization approach that can guide regional-scale conservation investments in land-and sea-based conservation actions that cost-effectively mitigate threats to coral reefs, and apply it to the Coral Triangle, an area of significant global attention and funding. Using information on threats to marine ecosystems, effectiveness of management actions at abating threats, and the management and opportunity costs of actions, we calculate the rate of return on investment in two conservation actions in sixteen ecoregions. We discover that marine conservation almost always trumps terrestrial conservation within any ecoregion, but terrestrial conservation in one ecoregion can be a better investment than marine conservation in another. We show how these results could be used to allocate a limited budget for conservation and compare them to priorities based on individual criteria.----- ----- Conclusions/Significance: Previous prioritization approaches do not consider both land and sea-based threats or the socioeconomic costs of conserving coral reefs. A simple and transparent approach like ours is essential to support effective coral reef conservation decisions in a large and diverse region like the Coral Triangle, but can be applied at any scale and to other marine ecosystems.

Thermal performance optimization of building aspect ratio and south window size in five cities having different climatic characteristics of Turkey

The aim of the study is to establish optimum building aspect ratios and south window sizes of residential buildings from thermal performance point of view. The effects of 6 different building aspect ratios and eight different south window sizes for each building aspect ratio are analyzed for apartments located at intermediate floors of buildings, by the aid of the computer based thermal analysis program SUNCODE-PC in five cities of Turkey: Erzurum, Ankara, Diyarbakir, Izmir, and Antalya. The results are evaluated in terms of annual energy consumption and the optimum values are driven. Comparison of optimum values and the total energy consumption rates is made among the analyzed cities.

Stratospheric dust collections : valuable resources for space and atmospheric scientists

Collections of solid particles from the Earths' stratosphere have been a significant part of atmospheric research programs since 1965 [1], but it has only been in the past decade that space-related disciplines have provided the impetus for a continued interest in these collections. Early research on specific particle types collected from the stratosphere established that interplanetary dust particles (IDP's) can be collected efficiently and in reasonable abundance using flat-plate collectors [2-4]. The tenacity of Brownlee and co-workers in this subfield of cosmochemistry has led to the establishment of a successful IDP collection and analysis program (using flat-plate collectors on high-flying aircraft) based on samples available for distribution from Johnson Space Center [5]. Other stratospheric collections are made, but the program at JSC offers a unique opportunity to study well-documented, individual particles (or groups of particles) from a wide variety of sources [6]. The nature of the collection and curation process, as well as the timeliness of some sampling periods [7], ensures that all data obtained from stratospheric particles is a valuable resource for scientists from a wide range of disciplines. A few examples of the uses of these stratospheric dust collections are outlined below.

Polymorphisms of the SIPA1 gene and sporadic breast cancer susceptibility

Background The novel breast cancer metastasis modulator gene signal-induced proliferation-associated 1 (Sipa1) underlies the breast cancer metastasis efficiency modifier locus Mtes 1 and has been shown to influence mammary tumour metastatic efficiency in the mouse, with an ectopically expressing Sipa1 cell line developing 1.5 to 2 fold more surface pulmonary metastases. Sipa1 encodes a mitogen-inducible GTPase activating (GAP) protein for members of the Ras-related proteins; participates in cell adhesion and modulates mitogen-induced cell cycle progression. Germline SIPA1 SNPs showed association with positive lymph node metastasis and hormonal receptor status in a Caucasian cohort. We hypothesized that SIPA1 may also be correlated to breast carcinoma incidence as well as prognosis. Therefore, this study investigated the potential relationship of SIPA1 and human breast cancer incidence by a germline SNP genotype frequency association study in a case-control Caucasian cohort in Queensland, Australia. Methods The SNPs genotyped in this study were identified in a previous study and the genotyping assays were carried out using TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assays. The data were analysed with chi-square method and the Monte Carlo style CLUMP analysis program. Results Results indicated significance with SIPA1 SNP rs3741378; the CC genotype was more frequently observed in the breast cancer group compared to the disease-free control group, indicating the variant C allele was associated with increased breast cancer incidence. Conclusion This observation indicates SNP rs3741378 as a novel potential sporadic breast cancer predisposition SNP. While it showed association with hormonal receptor status in breast cancer group in a previous pilot study, this exonic missense SNP (Ser (S) to Phe (F)) changes a hydrophilic residue (S) to a hydrophobic residue (F) and may significantly alter the protein functions of SIPA1 in breast tumourgenesis. SIPA1 SNPs rs931127 (5' near gene), and rs746429 (synonymous (Ala (A) to Ala (A)), did not show significant associations with breast cancer incidence, yet were associated with lymph node metastasis in the previous study. This suggests that SIPA1 may be involved in different stages of breast carcinogenesis and since this study replicates a previous study of the associated SNP, it implicates variants of the SIPA1 gene as playing a potential role in breast cancer.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.