A proposed role for models and simulations in management research

Overall, computer models and simulations have a rather disappointing record within the management sciences as a tool for predicting the future. Social and market environments can be influenced by an overwhelming number of variables, and it is therefore difficult to use computer models to make forecasts or to test hypotheses concerning the relationship between individual behaviours and macroscopic outcomes. At the same time, however, advocates of computer models argue that they can be used to overcome the human mind's inability to cope with several complex variables simultaneously or to understand concepts that are highly counterintuitive. This paper seeks to bridge the gap between these two perspectives by suggesting that management research can indeed benefit from computer models by using them to formulate fruitful hypotheses.

The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

Train schedule coordination at an interchange station through Agent negotiation

In open railway markets, coordinating train schedules at an interchange station requires negotiation between two independent train operating companies to resolve their operational conflicts. This paper models the stakeholders as software agents and proposes an agent negotiation model to study their interaction. Three negotiation strategies have been devised to represent the possible objectives of the stakeholders, and they determine the behavior in proposing offers to the proponent. Empirical simulation results confirm that the use of the proposed negotiation strategies lead to outcomes that are consistent with the objectives of the stakeholders.

Scheduling Trains with Priorities : a no-wait blocking parallel-machine job-shop scheduling model

The paper investigates train scheduling problems when prioritised trains and non-prioritised trains are simultaneously traversed in a single-line rail network. In this case, no-wait conditions arise because the prioritised trains such as express passenger trains should traverse continuously without any interruption. In comparison, non-prioritised trains such as freight trains are allowed to enter the next section immediately if possible or to remain in a section until the next section on the routing becomes available, which is thought of as a relaxation of no-wait conditions. With thorough analysis of the structural properties of the No-Wait Blocking Parallel-Machine Job-Shop-Scheduling (NWBPMJSS) problem that is originated in this research, an innovative generic constructive algorithm (called NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan) is proposed to construct the feasible train timetable in terms of a given order of trains. In particular, the proposed NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan constructive algorithm comprises several recursively-used sub-algorithms (i.e. Best-Starting-Time-Determination Procedure, Blocking-Time-Determination Procedure, Conflict-Checking Procedure, Conflict-Eliminating Procedure, Tune-up Procedure and Fine-tune Procedure) to guarantee feasibility by satisfying the blocking, no-wait, deadlock-free and conflict-free constraints. A two-stage hybrid heuristic algorithm (NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan-BIH) is developed by combining the NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan constructive algorithm and the Best-Insertion-Heuristic (BIH) algorithm to find the preferable train schedule in an efficient and economical way. Extensive computational experiments show that the proposed methodology is promising because it can be applied as a standard and fundamental toolbox for identifying, analysing, modelling and solving real-world scheduling problems.

Big-five personality factors affecting driving behaviours

The factors affecting driving behaviors are various and interact simultaneously. Therefore, study of their correlations affecting on driving behaviors is of interest. This paper reports a questionnaire survey in China, focusing on the effect of Big-Five factors on speeding, drink driving, and distracted driving while Akers' social learning theory and Homel's deterrence theory were applied. The results showed that personalities had significant effect on speeding and drink driving; social factors had significant effect on speeding and distracted driving; deterrence had significant effect on speeding and drink driving; however, social learning theory did not contribute to drink driving; deterrence did not affect distracted driving. The results were discussed along with the limitation of this study.

Modeling train delays in urban networks

The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.

Spiritual wisdom of Taoism in business : through the lens of interpretation realism in a Cisco end-to-end case study

This paper explores how the amalgamated wisdom of East and West can instigate a wisdombased renaissance of humanistic epistemology (Rooney & McKenna, 2005) to provide a platform of harmony in managing knowledge-worker productivity, one of the biggest management challenges of the 21st century (Drucker, 1999). The paper invites further discussions from the social and business research communities on the significance of "interpretation realism" technique in comprehending philosophies of Lao Tzu Confucius and Sun Tzu (Lao/Confucius/Sun] written in "Classical Chinese." This paper concludes with a call to build prudent, responsible practices in management which affects the daily lives of many (Rooney & McKenna, 2005) in today's knowledgebased economy. Interpretation Realism will be applied to an analysis of three Chinese classics of Lao/Confucius/Sun which have been embodied in the Chinese culture for over 2,500 years. Comprehending Lao/Confucius/Sun's philosophies is the first step towards understanding Classical Chinese culture. However, interpreting Chinese subtlety in language and the yin and yang circular synthesis in their mode of thinking is very different to understanding Western thought with its open communication and its linear, analytical pattern of Aristotelian/Platonic wisdom (Zuo, 2012). Furthermore, Eastern ways of communication are relatively indirect and mediatory in culture. Western ways of communication are relatively direct and litigious in culture (Goh, 2002). Furthermore, Lao/Confucius/Sun's philosophies are difficult to comprehend as there are four written Chinese formats and over 250 dialects: Pre-classical Chinese Classical Chinese Literary Chinese and modern Vernacular Chinese Because Classical Chinese is poetic, comprehension requires a mixed approach of interpretation realism combining logical reasoning behind "word splitting word occurrences", "empathetic metaphor" and "poetic appreciation of word.

A multidimensional model of client success when engaging external consultants

Too often the relationship between client and external consultants is perceived as one of protagonist versus antogonist. Stories on dramatic, failed consultancies abound, as do related anecdotal quips. A contributing factor to many "apparently" failed consultancies is a poor appreciation by both the client and consultant of the client's true goals for the project and how to assess progress toward these goals. This paper presents and analyses a measurement model for assessing client success when engaging an external consultant. Three main areas of assessment are identified: (1) the consultant;s recommendations, (2) client learning, and (3) consultant performance. Engagement success is emperically measured along these dimensions through a series of case studies and a subsequent survey of clients and consultants involved in 85 computer-based information system selection projects. Validation fo the model constructs suggests the existence of six distinct and individually important dimensions of engagement success. both clients and consultants are encouraged to attend to these dimensions in pre-engagement proposal and selection processes, and post-engagement evaluation of outcomes.

Built to last or meant to end : intertemporal choice in strategic alliance portfolios

A salient but rarely explicitly studied characteristic of interfirm relationships is that they can intentionally be formed for finite periods of time. What determines firms' intertemporal choices between different alliance time horizons? Shadow of the future theorists suggest that when an alliance has an explicitly set short-term time frame, there is an increased risk that partners may behave opportunistically. This does not readily explain the high incidence of time-bound alliances being formed. Reconciling insights from the shadow of the future perspective with nascent research on the flexibility of temporary organizations, and shifting the focus from the level of individual transactions to that of strategic alliance portfolios, we argue that firms may be willing to accept a higher risk of opportunism when there are offsetting gains in strategic flexibility in managing their strategic alliance portfolio. Consequently, we hypothesize that environmental factors that increase the need for strategic flexibility—namely, dynamism and complexity in the environment—are likely to increase the relative share of time-bound alliances in strategic alliance portfolios. Our analysis of longitudinal data on the intertemporal alliance choices of a large sample of small and medium-sized enterprises provides support for this argument. Our findings fill an important gap in theory about time horizons in interfirm relationships and temporary organizations and show the importance of separating planned terminations from duration-based performance measures.

The application of social network analysis in the construction industry of Hong Kong

The Hong Kong construction industry is currently facing ageing problem and labour shortage. There are opportunities for employing ethnic minority construction workers to join this hazardous industry. These ethnic minority workers are prone to accidents due to communication barriers. Safety communication is playing an important role for avoiding the accidents on construction sites. However, the ethnic minority workers are not very fluent in the local language and facing safety communication problems while working with local workers. Social network analysis (SNA), being an effective tool to identify the safety communication flow on the construction site, is used to attain the measures of safety communication like centrality, density and betweenness within the ethnic minorities and local workers, and to generate sociograms that visually represent communication pattern within the effective and ineffective safety networks. The aim of this paper is to present the application of SNA for improving the safety communication of ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong. The paper provides the theoretical background of SNA approaches for the data collection and analysis using the software UCINET and NetDraw, to determine the predominant safety communication network structure and pattern of ethnic minorities on site.

The role of emotion in product, service and business model design

Designers have become aware of the importance of creating strong emotional experiences intertwined with new tangible products for the past decade, however an increased interest from firms has emerged in developing new service and business models as complimentary forms of emotion-driven innovation. This interdisciplinary study draws from the psychological sciences – theory of emotion – and the management sciences – business model literature to introduce this new innovation agenda. The term visceral hedonic rhetoric (VHR) is defined as the properties of a product, (and in this paper service and business model extensions) that persuasively induce the pursuit of pleasure at an instinctual level of cognition. This research paper lays the foundation for VHR beyond a product setting, presenting the results from an empirical study where organizations explored the possibilities for VHR in the context of their business. The results found that firms currently believe VHR is perceived in either their product and/or services they provide. Implications suggest shifting perspective surrounding the use of VHR across a firm’s business model design in order to influence the outcomes of their product and/or service design, resulting in an overall stronger emotional connection with the customer.

Crossing boundaries: Implications of advances in basic sciences for the management of addiction.

This set of papers in this issue of "Addictive Behaviors" was presented at the 2004 'Addictions' conference, which, for the first time, was held in the Southern Hemisphere, on the Sunshine Coast of Queensland, Australia. The theme of the conference, Crossing Boundaries: Implications of Advances in Basic Sciences for the Management of Addiction, speaks for itself. The papers derive from a wide range of empirical paradigms and cover issues with relevance to the development of addiction, to the maintenance of problematic use, and to assessment, treatment, and relapse. Research from Europe and the United States is represented, as well as work from Australia. An international perspective is strongly emphasized from the initial paper by Obot, Poznyak, and Moneiro, (see record 2004-19599-015) which describes the WHO Report on the Neuroscience of Psychoactive Substance Use and Dependence, and summarises some of the report's implications for policy and practice. Hall, Carter, and Morley (see record 2004-19599-014) close the issue with a paper on the wide-ranging ethical implications of advances in neuroscience research, including issues arising from the identification of high risk for addiction, the potential for coercive pharmacotherapy, use of medications to enhance function, and risks to privacy.

A forward and backward secure key management in wireless sensor networks for PCS/SCADA

Process Control Systems (PCSs) or Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems have recently been added to the already wide collection of wireless sensor networks applications. The PCS/SCADA environment is somewhat more amenable to the use of heavy cryptographic mechanisms such as public key cryptography than other sensor application environments. The sensor nodes in the environment, however, are still open to devastating attacks such as node capture, which makes designing a secure key management challenging. In this paper, a key management scheme is proposed to defeat node capture attack by offering both forward and backward secrecies. Our scheme overcomes the pitfalls which Nilsson et al.'s scheme suffers from, and is not more expensive than their scheme.

A learning community approach to doctoral education in the social sciences

The paper reports on the findings of a community learning approach to doctoral education involving scholarly writing groups (SWGs) which was developed and implemented in the context of a higher degree research programme within the social sciences in an Australian university. The research evaluated the impact of the teaching intervention on students' perceptions of the community learning experience, their knowledge of scholarly writing and their attitudes towards writing. The findings are suggestive of the advantages of community approaches to learning in higher degree research education as a supplement to independent supervision. The SWGs were associated with improvements in both participants' knowledge of scholarly writing and their attitudes towards writing. However, a variety of characteristics of doctoral education are potential impediments to the creation of ongoing and regular interactions in learning communities such as SWGs. The paper concludes that a flexible approach to the recognition and enhancement of community approaches to learning is required to acknowledge the complex and diverse context of contemporary doctoral education.