Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Testing second order cyclostationarity in the squared envelope spectrum of non-white vibration signals

Cyclostationary models for the diagnostic signals measured on faulty rotating machineries have proved to be successful in many laboratory tests and industrial applications. The squared envelope spectrum has been pointed out as the most efficient indicator for the assessment of second order cyclostationary symptoms of damages, which are typical, for instance, of rolling element bearing faults. In an attempt to foster the spread of rotating machinery diagnostics, the current trend in the field is to reach higher levels of automation of the condition monitoring systems. For this purpose, statistical tests for the presence of cyclostationarity have been proposed during the last years. The statistical thresholds proposed in the past for the identification of cyclostationary components have been obtained under the hypothesis of having a white noise signal when the component is healthy. This need, coupled with the non-white nature of the real signals implies the necessity of pre-whitening or filtering the signal in optimal narrow-bands, increasing the complexity of the algorithm and the risk of losing diagnostic information or introducing biases on the result. In this paper, the authors introduce an original analytical derivation of the statistical tests for cyclostationarity in the squared envelope spectrum, dropping the hypothesis of white noise from the beginning. The effect of first order and second order cyclostationary components on the distribution of the squared envelope spectrum will be quantified and the effectiveness of the newly proposed threshold verified, providing a sound theoretical basis and a practical starting point for efficient automated diagnostics of machine components such as rolling element bearings. The analytical results will be verified by means of numerical simulations and by using experimental vibration data of rolling element bearings.

A suitable method for journal bearing wear measurement

Purpose – Ideally, there is no wear in hydrodynamic lubrication regime. A small amount of wear occurs during start and stop of the machines and the amount of wear is so small that it is difficult to measure with accuracy. Various wear measuring techniques have been used where out-of-roundness was found to be the most reliable method of measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings. This technique was further developed to achieve higher accuracy in measuring small wear quantities. The method proved to be reliable as well as inexpensive. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study, the effect of antiwear additives was studied on journal bearings lubricated with oil containing solid contaminants. The test duration was too long and the wear quantities achieved were too small. To minimise the test duration, short tests of about 90 min duration were conducted and wear was measured recording changes in variety of parameters related to weight, geometry and wear debris. The out-of-roundness was found to be the most effective method. This method was further refined by enlarging the out-of-roundness traces on a photocopier. The method was proved to be reliable and inexpensive. Findings – Study revealed that the most commonly used wear measurement techniques such as weight loss, roughness changes and change in particle count were not adequate for measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings. Out-of-roundness method with some refinements was found to be one of the most reliable methods for measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings working in hydrodynamic lubrication regime. By enlarging the out-of-roundness traces and determining the worn area of the bearing cross-section, weight loss in bearings was calculated, which was repeatable and reliable. Research limitations/implications – This research is a basic in nature where a rudimentary solution has been developed for measuring small wear quantities in rotary devices such as journal bearings. The method requires enlarging traces on a photocopier and determining the shape of the worn area on an out-of-roundness trace on a transparency, which is a simple but a crude method. This may require an automated procedure to determine the weight loss from the out-of-roundness traces directly. This method can be very useful in reducing test duration and measuring wear quantities with higher precision in situations where wear quantities are very small. Practical implications – This research provides a reliable method of measuring wear of circular geometry. The Talyrond equipment used for measuring the change in out-of-roundness due to wear of bearings indicates that this equipment has high potential to be used as a wear measuring device also. Measurement of weight loss from the traces is an enhanced capability of this equipment and this research may lead to the development of a modified version of Talyrond type of equipment for wear measurements in circular machine components. Originality/value – Wear measurement in hydrodynamic bearings requires long duration tests to achieve adequate wear quantities. Out-of-roundness is one of the geometrical parameters that changes with progression of wear in a circular shape components. Thus, out-of-roundness is found to be an effective wear measuring parameter that relates to change in geometry. Method of increasing the sensitivity and enlargement of out-of-roundness traces is original work through which area of worn cross-section can be determined and weight loss can be derived for materials of known density with higher precision.

Machine recognition of hand-drawn circuit diagrams

An application of image processing techniques to recognition of hand-drawn circuit diagrams is presented. The scanned image of a diagram is pre-processed to remove noise and converted to bilevel. Morphological operations are applied to obtain a clean, connected representation using thinned lines. The diagram comprises of nodes, connections and components. Nodes and components are segmented using appropriate thresholds on a spatially varying object pixel density. Connection paths are traced using a pixel-stack. Nodes are classified using syntactic analysis. Components are classified using a combination of invariant moments, scalar pixel-distribution features, and vector relationships between straight lines in polygonal representations. A node recognition accuracy of 82% and a component recognition accuracy of 86% was achieved on a database comprising 107 nodes and 449 components. This recogniser can be used for layout “beautification” or to generate input code for circuit analysis and simulation packages

Development of distributed fuzzy systems with a runtime-adaptable mobile components framework

A distributed fuzzy system is a real-time fuzzy system in which the input, output and computation may be located on different networked computing nodes. The ability for a distributed software application, such as a distributed fuzzy system, to adapt to changes in the computing network at runtime can provide real-time performance improvement and fault-tolerance. This paper introduces an Adaptable Mobile Component Framework (AMCF) that provides a distributed dataflow-based platform with a fine-grained level of runtime reconfigurability. The execution location of small fragments (possibly as little as few machine-code instructions) of an AMCF application can be moved between different computing nodes at runtime. A case study is included that demonstrates the applicability of the AMCF to a distributed fuzzy system scenario involving multiple physical agents (such as autonomous robots). Using the AMCF, fuzzy systems can now be developed such that they can be distributed automatically across multiple computing nodes and are adaptable to runtime changes in the networked computing environment. This provides the opportunity to improve the performance of fuzzy systems deployed in scenarios where the computing environment is resource-constrained and volatile, such as multiple autonomous robots, smart environments and sensor networks.

A comparison of methods for classifying clinical samples based on proteomics data : a case study for statistical and machine learning approaches

The discovery of protein variation is an important strategy in disease diagnosis within the biological sciences. The current benchmark for elucidating information from multiple biological variables is the so called “omics” disciplines of the biological sciences. Such variability is uncovered by implementation of multivariable data mining techniques which come under two primary categories, machine learning strategies and statistical based approaches. Typically proteomic studies can produce hundreds or thousands of variables, p, per observation, n, depending on the analytical platform or method employed to generate the data. Many classification methods are limited by an n≪p constraint, and as such, require pre-treatment to reduce the dimensionality prior to classification. Recently machine learning techniques have gained popularity in the field for their ability to successfully classify unknown samples. One limitation of such methods is the lack of a functional model allowing meaningful interpretation of results in terms of the features used for classification. This is a problem that might be solved using a statistical model-based approach where not only is the importance of the individual protein explicit, they are combined into a readily interpretable classification rule without relying on a black box approach. Here we incorporate statistical dimension reduction techniques Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) followed by both statistical and machine learning classification methods, and compared them to a popular machine learning technique, Support Vector Machines (SVM). Both PLS and SVM demonstrate strong utility for proteomic classification problems.

Towards the development of 1-to-n human machine interfaces for unmanned aerial vehicles

Multi-touch interfaces across a wide range of hardware platforms are becoming pervasive. This is due to the adoption of smart phones and tablets in both the consumer and corporate market place. This paper proposes a human-machine interface to interact with unmanned aerial systems based on the philosophy of multi-touch hardware-independent high-level interaction with multiple systems simultaneously. Our approach incorporates emerging development methods for multi-touch interfaces on mobile platforms. A framework is defined for supporting multiple protocols. An open source solution is presented that demonstrates: architecture supporting different communications hardware; an extensible approach for supporting multiple protocols; and the ability to monitor and interact with multiple UAVs from multiple clients simultaneously. Validation tests were conducted to assess the performance, scalability and impact on packet latency under different client configurations.

Robot control of a 3,500 tonne mining machine

The mining industry is highly suitable for the application of robotics and automation technology since the work is arduous, dangerous and often repetitive. This paper describes the development of an automation system for a physically large and complex field robotic system - a 3,500 tonne mining machine (a dragline). The major components of the system are discussed with a particular emphasis on the machine/operator interface. A very important aspect of this system is that it must work cooperatively with a human operator, seamlessly passing the control back and forth in order to achieve the main aim - increased productivity.

Applications of real-time machine vision to the control of mining equipment

The mining industry presents us with a number of ideal applications for sensor based machine control because of the unstructured environment that exists within each mine. The aim of the research presented here is to increase the productivity of existing large compliant mining machines by retrofitting with enhanced sensing and control technology. The current research focusses on the automatic control of the swing motion cycle of a dragline and an automated roof bolting system. We have achieved: * closed-loop swing control of an one-tenth scale model dragline; * single degree of freedom closed-loop visual control of an electro-hydraulic manipulator in the lab developed from standard components.

Assessment of crop insect damage using unmanned aerial systems: A machine learning approach

Agricultural pests are responsible for millions of dollars in crop losses and management costs every year. In order to implement optimal site-specific treatments and reduce control costs, new methods to accurately monitor and assess pest damage need to be investigated. In this paper we explore the combination of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), remote sensing and machine learning techniques as a promising technology to address this challenge. The deployment of UAVs as a sensor platform is a rapidly growing field of study for biosecurity and precision agriculture applications. In this experiment, a data collection campaign is performed over a sorghum crop severely damaged by white grubs (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). The larvae of these scarab beetles feed on the roots of plants, which in turn impairs root exploration of the soil profile. In the field, crop health status could be classified according to three levels: bare soil where plants were decimated, transition zones of reduced plant density and healthy canopy areas. In this study, we describe the UAV platform deployed to collect high-resolution RGB imagery as well as the image processing pipeline implemented to create an orthoimage. An unsupervised machine learning approach is formulated in order to create a meaningful partition of the image into each of the crop levels. The aim of the approach is to simplify the image analysis step by minimizing user input requirements and avoiding the manual data labeling necessary in supervised learning approaches. The implemented algorithm is based on the K-means clustering algorithm. In order to control high-frequency components present in the feature space, a neighbourhood-oriented parameter is introduced by applying Gaussian convolution kernels prior to K-means. The outcome of this approach is a soft K-means algorithm similar to the EM algorithm for Gaussian mixture models. The results show the algorithm delivers decision boundaries that consistently classify the field into three clusters, one for each crop health level. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further research towards automated crop damage assessments and biosecurity surveillance.