Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

Microcosm study of ion mobilization and greenhouse gas evolution in soils of a plantation-forested subtropical coastal catchment

This study examined the potential for Fe mobilization and greenhouse gas (GHG, e.g. CO2, and CH4) evolution in SEQ soils associated with a range of plantation forestry practices and water-logged conditions. Intact, 30-cm-deep soil cores collected from representative sites were saturated and incubated for 35 days in the laboratory, with leachate and headspace gas samples periodically collected. Minimal Fe dissolution was observed in well-drained sand soils associated with mature, first-rotation Pinus and organic Fe complexation, whereas progressive Fe dissolution occurred over 14 days in clear-felled and replanted Pinus soils with low organic matter and non-crystalline Fe fractions. Both CO2 and CH4 effluxes were relatively lower in clear-felled and replanted soils compared with mature, first-rotation Pinus soils, despite the lack of statistically significant variations in total GHG effluxes associated with different forestry practices. Fe dissolution and GHG evolution in low-lying, water-logged soils adjacent to riparian and estuarine, native-vegetation buffer zones were impacted by mineral and physical soil properties. Highest levels of dissolved Fe and GHG effluxes resulted from saturation of riparian loam soils with high Fe and clay content, as well as abundant organic material and Fe-metabolizing bacteria. Results indicate Pinus forestry practices such as clear-felling and replanting may elevate Fe mobilization while decreasing CO2 and CH4 emissions from well-drained, SEQ plantation soils upon heavy flooding. Prolonged water-logging accelerates bacterially mediated Fe cycling in low-lying, clay-rich soils, leading to substantial Fe dissolution, organic matter mineralization, and CH4 production in riparian native-vegetation buffer zones.

Exposure to airborne fungi and bacteria in Brisbane houses after the 2011 flood

A series of flooding events occurred in Queensland, Australia during December 2010 and January 2011. The state’s capital city of Brisbane experienced major flooding in January 2011, when the Brisbane River broke its bank and inundated low lying areas.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Photoelectron spectroscopic study of the oxyallyl diradical

The photoelectron spectrum of the oxyallyl (OXA) radical anion has been measured. The radical anion has been generated in the reaction of the atomic oxygen radical anion (O center dot-) with acetone. Three low-lying electronic states of OXA have been observed in the spectrum. Electronic structure calculations have been performed for the triplet states (B-3(2) and B-3(1)) of OXA and the ground doublet state ((2)A(2)) of the radical anion using density, functional theory (DFT). Spectral simulations have been carried out for the triplet statics based on the results of the DFT calculations. The simulation identifies a vibrational progression of the CCC bending mode of the B-3(2) state of OXA in the lower electron binding energy (eBE) portion of the spectrum. On top of the B-3(2) feature, however, the experimental spectrum exhibits additional photoelectron peaks whose angular distribution is distinct from that for the vibronic peaks of the B-3(2) state. Complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) method and second-order perturbation theory based on the CASSCF wave function (CASPT2) have been employed to study the lowest singlet state ((1)A(1)) of OXA. The simulation based on the results of these electronic structure calculations establishes that the overlapping peaks represent the vibrational ground level of the (1)A(1) state and its vibrational progression of the CO stretching mode. The A, state is the lowest electronic state of,OXA, and the electron affinity (EA) of OXA is 1.940 +/- 0.010 eV. The B-3(2) state is the first excited state with an electronic term energy of 55 +/- 2 meV. The widths of the vibronic peaks of the (X) over tilde (1)A(1) state are much broader than those of the (a) over tilde B-3(2) state, implying that the (1)A(1) state is indeed a transition state. The CASSCF and CASPT2 calculations suggest that the (1)A(1) state is at a potential maximum along the nuclear coordinate representing disrotatory motion of the two methylene groups, which leads to three-membered-ring formation, i.e., cydopropanone. The simulation of (b) over tilde B-3(1) OXA reproduces the higher eBE portion of the spectrum very well. The term energy of the B-3(1) state is 0.883 +/- 0.012 eV. Photoelectron spectroscopic measurements have also been conducted for the other ion products of the O center dot- reaction with acetone. The photoelectron imaging spectrum of the acetylcarbene (AC) radical anion exhibits a broad, structureless feature, which is assigned to the (X) over tilde (3)A '' state of AC. The ground ((2)A '') and first excited ((2)A') states of the 1-methylvinoxy (1-MVO) radical have been observed in the photoelectron spectrum of the 1-MVO ion, and their vibronic structure has been analyzed.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

The French polisher and the unsentimental interior

In January 2011 a swollen Brisbane River broke its banks flooding riverside houses and buildings. The river’s water spread and rose up through storm water drains inundating some 20 000 houses in low-lying land. As the water receded those residents affected by the floods returned to their homes to assess the damage. While some people breathed a sigh of relief others were devastated by the overwhelming damage to their homes and personal belongings. Over the next few weeks the landscape of Brisbane was altered not merely by the mud and debris left by the torrent of water, but by the piles of domestic contents occupying Brisbane streets. Beds, toys, cabinets, plasterboard, tiles and household furniture lined curbsides waiting for collection. Later they would accumulate in public parks and sports centres to await disposal, momentarily creating an unsettling landscape of discarded domestic interiors. While most houses remained standing the heart breaking repercussions were evident in their interiority. Thousands of volunteers flocked to help those affected by the floods to purge the damage left by the water – removing wall and floor linings, discarding furniture and spoilt belongings. In her paper on Hurricane Katrina, Julieanna Preston wrote, ‘What anthropological evidence would we find as we followed their migration – heaps left by the side of the road, the physical weight overcoming the personal value…’ For many of the post flood restored homes and buildings entire interiors have been replaced, eradicating any trace of the significant event that disturbed them only months earlier. There were artifacts that would have survived the floods - furniture of solid timber – these were discarded and with them the patina that marked an important event in history. The patina is beyond technological reproducibility, and as Walter Benjamin writes, this being the whole premise of genuineness. It is the role of the French Polisher to maintain the true wear of the artefact for it is the patina that is most valuable in its ability to narrate the history of a piece. In 2012 two separate exhibitions in Brisbane will take place to display a selected collection of flood-damaged artefacts. This orchestrated way to commemorate the damage left by floods may be a method to compensate for the haste in which the damage was purged from the city. This need for exhibiting damaged artifacts illustrates Andreas Huyssen’s point that "…today memory is understood as a mode of re-presentation and as belonging to the present." This research looks at the dying trade of the French Polisher through conversations and a visual study of flood damaged furniture. The research also investigates the personal loss of artifacts through intimate stories shared by flood victims. This paper seeks to understand why so much was discarded and celebrate what remains.

Genetic analyses in a sample of individuals with high or low BMD shows association with multiple Wnt pathway genes

INTRODUCTION Although the high heritability of BMD variation has long been established, few genes have been conclusively shown to affect the variation of BMD in the general population. Extreme truncate selection has been proposed as a more powerful alternative to unselected cohort designs in quantitative trait association studies. We sought to test these theoretical predictions in studies of the bone densitometry measures BMD, BMC, and femoral neck area, by investigating their association with members of the Wnt pathway, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with BMD in much larger cohorts, in a moderate-sized extreme truncate selected cohort (absolute value BMD Z-scores = 1.5-4.0; n = 344). MATERIALS AND METHODS Ninety-six tag-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) lying in 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes were selected to tag common genetic variation (minor allele frequency [MAF] > 5% with an r(2) > 0.8) within 5 kb of all exons of 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes. The genes studied included LRP1, LRP5, LRP6, Wnt3a, Wnt7b, Wnt10b, SFRP1, SFRP2, DKK1, DKK2, FZD7, WISP3, and SOST. Three hundred forty-four cases with either high or low BMD were genotyped by Illumina Goldengate microarray SNP genotyping methods. Association was tested either by Cochrane-Armitage test for dichotomous variables or by linear regression for quantitative traits. RESULTS Strong association was shown with LRP5, polymorphisms of which have previously been shown to influence total hip BMD (minimum p = 0.0006). In addition, polymorphisms of the Wnt antagonist, SFRP1, were significantly associated with BMD and BMC (minimum p = 0.00042). Previously reported associations of LRP1, LRP6, and SOST with BMD were confirmed. Two other Wnt pathway genes, Wnt3a and DKK2, also showed nominal association with BMD. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that polymorphisms of multiple members of the Wnt pathway are associated with BMD variation. Furthermore, this study shows in a practical trial that study designs involving extreme truncate selection and moderate sample sizes can robustly identify genes of relevant effect sizes involved in BMD variation in the general population. This has implications for the design of future genome-wide studies of quantitative bone phenotypes relevant to osteoporosis.

A new low temperature synthesis route of fraipontite (Zn,Al)3(Si,Al)2O5(OH)4

A low temperature synthesis method based on the decomposition of urea at 90°C in water has been developed to synthesise fraipontite. This material is characterised by a basal reflection 001 at 7.44 Å. The trioctahedral nature of the fraipontite is shown by the presence of a 06l band around 1.54 Å, while a minor band around 1.51 Å indicates some cation ordering between Zn and Al resulting in Al-rich areas with a more dioctahedral nature. TEM and IR indicate that no separate kaolinite phase is present. An increase in the Al content however, did result in the formation of some SiO2 in the form of quartz. Minor impurities of carbonate salts were observed during the synthesis caused by to the formation of CO32- during the decomposition of urea.

On the zeros of the Abelian integrals for a class of Liénard systems

A planar polynomial differential system has a finite number of limit cycles. However, finding the upper bound of the number of limit cycles is an open problem for the general nonlinear dynamical systems. In this paper, we investigated a class of Liénard systems of the form x'=y, y'=f(x)+y g(x) with deg f=5 and deg g=4. We proved that the related elliptic integrals of the Liénard systems have at most three zeros including multiple zeros, which implies that the number of limit cycles bifurcated from the periodic orbits of the unperturbed system is less than or equal to 3.