Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Numerical estimation of 3D mechanical forces exerted by cells on non-linear materials

The exchange of physical forces in both cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions play a significant role in a variety of physiological and pathological processes, such as cell migration, cancer metastasis, inflammation and wound healing. Therefore, great interest exists in accurately quantifying the forces that cells exert on their substrate during migration. Traction Force Microscopy (TFM) is the most widely used method for measuring cell traction forces. Several mathematical techniques have been developed to estimate forces from TFM experiments. However, certain simplifications are commonly assumed, such as linear elasticity of the materials and/or free geometries, which in some cases may lead to inaccurate results. Here, cellular forces are numerically estimated by solving a minimization problem that combines multiple non-linear FEM solutions. Our simulations, free from constraints on the geometrical and the mechanical conditions, show that forces are predicted with higher accuracy than when using the standard approaches.

Commercial Law in East Asia

The shift of economic gravity towards East Asia requires a critical examination of law's role in the Asian Century. This volume explores the diverse scholarly perspectives on law's role in the economic rise of East Asia and moves from general debates, such as whether law enjoys primacy over culture, state intervention or free markets in East Asian capitalism, to specific case studies looking at the nature of law in East Asian negotiations, contracts, trade policy and corporate governance. The collection of articles exposes the clefts and cleavages in the scholarly literature explaining law's form, function and future in the Asian Century.

Planning the unplanned City: The story of the gold coast

One of the distinctive features of Gold Coast urbanisation is its historically ad hoc approach to development with little or no strategic planning to guide it. Many have commented on the lack of planning on the Gold Coast calling it ‘an experiment in freedom’ or ‘free enterprise city’. Following a major restructuring of the Queensland’s local councils, the 1990s witnessed a shift from ad hoc decision making to more systematic planning on the Gold Coast. Understanding the past is important for shaping the future. This paper reviews the history of regulatory planning on the Gold Coast, encompassing decisions affecting the form and development of its earliest settlements through to its periods of greatest construction and most streamlined decision–making. It focuses mainly on past planning processes, the problems identified in each planning exercise and the interventions introduced, asking whether these were implemented or not and why. The paper positions the Gold Coast as a physical embodiment of this history of decision making, assessing the effects on the city as a whole of specific measures either affording freedoms or insisting on accountability to various levels of regulation. It examines how the absence of some planning measures influenced the form of the city and its internal arrangements and considers how the shift from ad hoc decision making towards more systematic planning efforts affected the city’s urbanisation. The lessons that the Gold Coast example provides will resonate with places elsewhere in Australia and the world, if not always in scale definitely in substance.

Body composition and appetite : fat-free mass (but not fat mass or BMI) is positively associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake in humans

The idea of body weight regulation implies that a biological mechanism exerts control over energy expenditure and food intake. This is a central tenet of energy homeostasis. However, the source and identity of the controlling mechanism have not been identified, although it is often presumed to be some long-acting signal related to body fat, such as leptin. Using a comprehensive experimental platform, we have investigated the relationship between biological and behavioural variables in two separate studies over a 12-week intervention period in obese adults (total n 92). All variables have been measured objectively and with a similar degree of scientific control and precision, including anthropometric factors, body composition, RMR and accumulative energy consumed at individual meals across the whole day. Results showed that meal size and daily energy intake (EI) were significantly correlated with fat-free mass (FFM, P values ,0·02–0·05) but not with fat mass (FM) or BMI (P values 0·11–0·45) (study 1, n 58). In study 2 (n 34), FFM (but not FM or BMI) predicted meal size and daily EI under two distinct dietary conditions (high-fat and low-fat). These data appear to indicate that, under these circumstances, some signal associated with lean mass (but not FM) exerts a determining effect over self-selected food consumption. This signal may be postulated to interact with a separate class of signals generated by FM. This finding may have implications for investigations of the molecular control of food intake and body weight and for the management of obesity.

Misunderstanding or Misdirection?: Whistleblower Protection in Queensland

In his report into corruption in Queensland, Fitzgerald listed whistleblower protection as a necessary part of a strong governance regime. "What is required is an accessible, independent body to which disclosures can be made, confidentially (at least in the first instance) and in any event free from fear of reprisals." It was one of the reforms studied by the Electoral and Administrative Review Committee, the report of which resulted in the Whistleblowers Protection Act 1994 (WPA). The need for whistleblower protection was supported by all sides of Parliament. The Premier, Wayne Goss, in his Second Reading Speech on the Public Sector Ethics Bill , said that that Act and the WPA would form a package with the former outlining required behaviour and the WPA encouraging staff to report wrongdoing. The WPA was subsequently passed and has remained virtually unamended for over a decade. Such consistency is either an indication of skilled drafting and effectiveness or the fact that the Act has been neglected. It is the hypothesis of this paper that the latter is the case. This hypothesis will be tested by examining the sincerity and diligence with which the Act has been treated during, and following, its passage.

Free will, moral responsibility and ADHD

One of the oldest problems in philosophy concerns the relationship between free will and moral responsibility. If we adopt the position that we lack free will, in the absolute sense—as have most philosophers who have addressed this issue—how can we truly be held accountable for what we do? This paper will contend that the most significant and interesting challenge to the long-standing status-quo on the matter comes not from philosophy, jurisprudence, or even physics, but rather from psychology. By examining this debate through the lens of contemporary behaviour disorders, such as ADHD, it will be argued that notions of free will, along with its correlate, moral responsibility, are being eroded through the logic of psychology which is steadily reconfiguring large swathes of familiar human conduct as pathology. The intention of the paper is not only to raise some concerns over the exponential growth of behaviour disorders, but also, and more significantly, to flag the ongoing relevance of philosophy for prying open contemporary educational problems in new and interesting ways.

Free will, moral responsibility and ADHD

One of the oldest problems in philosophy concerns the relationship between free will and moral responsibility. If we adopt the position that we lack free will, in the absolute sense—as have most philosophers who have addressed this issue—how can we truly be held accountable for what we do? This paper will contend that the most significant and interesting challenge to the long-standing status-quo on the matter comes not from philosophy, jurisprudence, or even physics, but rather from psychology. By examining this debate through the lens of contemporary behaviour disorders, such as ADHD, it will be argued that notions of free will, along with its correlate, moral responsibility, are being eroded through the logic of psychology which is steadily reconfiguring large swathes of familiar human conduct as pathology. The intention of the paper is not only to raise some concerns over the exponential growth of behaviour disorders, but also, and more significantly, to flag the ongoing relevance of philosophy for prying open contemporary educational problems in new and interesting ways.

Total rural land performance in a free trade economy

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group Developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes and land values. This paper will analyse the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on land use and will compare the total return from rural properties based on world agricultural commodity prices.

Mobile phone use while driving : an investigation of the beliefs influencing drivers’ hands-free and hand-held mobile phone use.

This study explored the psychological influences of hands-free and hand-held mobile phone use while driving. Participants were 796 Australian drivers aged 17 to 76 years who owned mobile phones. A cross-sectional survey assessed frequency of calling and text messaging while driving (overall, hands-free, hand-held) as well as drivers’ behavioural, normative, and control beliefs relating to mobile phone use while driving. Irrespective of handset type, 43% of drivers reported answering calls while driving on a daily basis, followed by making calls (36%), reading text messages (27%), and sending text messages (18%). In total, 63.9% of drivers did not own hands-free kits and, of the drivers that owned hand-free kits, 32% did not use it most or all of the time. Significant differences were found in the behavioural, normative, and control beliefs of frequent and infrequent users of both types of handset while driving. As expected, frequent users reported more advantages of, more approval from others for, and fewer barriers that would prevent them from, using either a hands-free or a hand-held mobile phone while driving than infrequent users. Campaigns to reduce mobile phone use while driving should attempt to minimise the perceived benefits of the behaviour and highlight the risks of this unsafe driving practice.

Structuring free-form tagging in online news

Tagging has become one of the key activities in next generation websites which allow users selecting short labels to annotate, manage, and share multimedia information such as photos, videos and bookmarks. Tagging does not require users any prior training before participating in the annotation activities as they can freely choose any terms which best represent the semantic of contents without worrying about any formal structure or ontology. However, the practice of free-form tagging can lead to several problems, such as synonymy, polysemy and ambiguity, which potentially increase the complexity of managing the tags and retrieving information. To solve these problems, this research aims to construct a lightweight indexing scheme to structure tags by identifying and disambiguating the meaning of terms and construct a knowledge base or dictionary. News has been chosen as the primary domain of application to demonstrate the benefits of using structured tags for managing the rapidly changing and dynamic nature of news information. One of the main outcomes of this work is an automatically constructed vocabulary that defines the meaning of each named entity tag, which can be extracted from a news article (including person, location and organisation), based on experts suggestions from major search engines and the knowledge from public database such as Wikipedia. To demonstrate the potential applications of the vocabulary, we have used it to provide more functionalities in an online news website, including topic-based news reading, intuitive tagging, clipping and sharing of interesting news, as well as news filtering or searching based on named entity tags. The evaluation results on the impact of disambiguating tags have shown that the vocabulary can help to significantly improve news searching performance. The preliminary results from our user study have demonstrated that users can benefit from the additional functionalities on the news websites as they are able to retrieve more relevant news, clip and share news with friends and families effectively.

Vitronectin modulates human mesenchymal stem cell response to insulin-like growth factor-I and transforming growth factor beta 1 in a serum-free environment

The use of animal sera for the culture of therapeutically important cells impedes the clinical use of the cells. We sought to characterize the functional response of human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) to specific proteins known to exist in bone tissue with a view to eliminating the requirement of animal sera. Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), via IGF binding protein-3 or -5 (IGFBP-3 or -5) and transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta(1)) are known to associate with the extracellular matrix (ECM) protein vitronectin (VN) and elicit functional responses in a range of cell types in vitro. We found that specific combinations of VN, IGFBP-3 or -5, and IGF-I or TGF-beta(1) could stimulate initial functional responses in hMSCs and that IGF-I or TGF-beta(1) induced hMSC aggregation, but VN concentration modulated this effect. We speculated that the aggregation effect may be due to endogenous protease activity, although we found that neither IGF-I nor TGF-beta(1) affected the functional expression of matrix metalloprotease-2 or -9, two common proteases expressed by hMSCs. In summary, combinations of the ECM and growth factors described herein may form the basis of defined cell culture media supplements, although the effect of endogenous protease expression on the function of such proteins requires investigation.

The effect of graded levels of exercise on energy intake and balance in free-living men, consuming their normal diet

Objective: To assess the effect of graded increases in exercised-induced energy expenditure (EE) on appetite, energy intake (EI), total daily EE and body weight in men living in their normal environment and consuming their usual diets. Design: Within-subject, repeated measures design. Six men (mean (s.d.) age 31.0 (5.0) y; weight 75.1 (15.96) kg; height 1.79 (0.10) m; body mass index (BMI) 23.3(2.4) kg/m2), were each studied three times during a 9 day protocol, corresponding to prescriptions of no exercise, (control) (Nex; 0 MJ/day), medium exercise level (Mex; ~1.6 MJ/day) and high exercise level (Hex; ~3.2 MJ/day). On days 1-2 subjects were given a medium fat (MF) maintenance diet (1.6 ´ resting metabolic rate (RMR)). Measurements: On days 3-9 subjects self-recorded dietary intake using a food diary and self-weighed intake. EE was assessed by continual heart rate monitoring, using the modified FLEX method. Subjects' HR (heart rate) was individually calibrated against submaximal VO2 during incremental exercise tests at the beginning and end of each 9 day study period. Respiratory exchange was measured by indirect calorimetry. Subjects completed hourly hunger ratings during waking hours to record subjective sensations of hunger and appetite. Body weight was measured daily. Results: EE amounted to 11.7, 12.9 and 16.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=48.26; P<0.001 (s.e.d=0.55)) on the Nex, Mex and Hex treatments, respectively. The corresponding values for EI were 11.6, 11.8 and 11.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=0.10; P=0.910 (s.e.d.=0.10)), respectively. There were no treatment effects on hunger, appetite or body weight, but there was evidence of weight loss on the Hex treatment. Conclusion: Increasing EE did not lead to compensation of EI over 7 days. However, total daily EE tended to decrease over time on the two exercise treatments. Lean men appear able to tolerate a considerable negative energy balance, induced by exercise, over 7 days without invoking compensatory increases in EI.

Obstacle-free range determination for rail track maintenance vehicles

Maintenance trains travel in convoy. In Australia, only the first train of the convoy pays attention to the track sig- nalization (the other convoy vehicles simply follow the preceding vehicle). Because of human errors, collisions can happen between the maintenance vehicles. Although an anti-collision system based on a laser distance meter is already in operation, the existing system has a limited range due to the curvature of the tracks. In this paper, we introduce an anti-collision system based on vision. The two main ideas are, (1) to warp the camera image into an image where the rails are parallel through a projective transform, and (2) to track the two rail curves simultaneously by evaluating small parallel segments. The performance of the system is demonstrated on an image dataset.