368 resultados para LIFE EXPECTANCY

em Queensland University of Technology - ePrints Archive


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Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

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The increase of life expectancy worldwide during the last three decades has increased age-related disability leading to the risk of loss of quality of life. How to improve quality of life including physical health and mental health for older people and optimize their life potential has become an important health issue. This study used the Theory of Planned Behaviour Model to examine factors influencing health behaviours, and the relationship with quality of life. A cross-sectional mailed survey of 1300 Australians over 50 years was conducted at the beginning of 2009, with 730 completed questionnaires returned (response rate 63%). Preliminary analysis reveals that physiological changes of old age, especially increasing waist circumference and co morbidity was closely related to health status, especially worse physical health summary score. Physical activity was the least adherent behaviour among the respondents compared to eating healthy food and taking medication regularly as prescribed. Increasing number of older people living alone with co morbidity of disease may be the barriers that influence their attitude and self control toward physical activity. A multidisciplinary and integrated approach including hospital and non hospital care is required to provide appropriate services and facilities toward older people.

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Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

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Temperature is an important determinant of health. A better knowledge of how temperature affects population health is important not only to the scientific community, but also to the decision-makers who develop and implement early warning systems and intervention strategies to mitigate the health effects of extreme temperatures. The temperature–health relationship is also of growing interest as climate change is projected to shift the overall temperature distribution higher. Previous studies have examined the relative risks of temperature-related mortality, but the absolute measure of years of life lost is also useful as it combines the number of deaths with life expectancy. Here we use years of life lost to provide a novel measure of the impact of temperature on mortality in Brisbane, Australia. We also project the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. We show that the association between temperature and years of life lost is U-shaped, with increased years of life lost for cold and hot temperatures. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 �C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. This study highlights that public health adaptation to climate change is necessary.

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The first effective life extension technologies might well become available within the next few years. Experts from the University of Queensland, Australia, explore the possible public reaction to these therapies and the ethical and social concerns they raise, drawing on the experience of assisted reproduction technologies

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BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

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This is an initial report of the PolyU SD part of the team to study Pre-fabricated Building Design and Construction Methodology and marks the completion of Phase 1. It follows our first notes prepared for the meeting on 2 February that identified some critical issues including future lifestyles, life expectancy of buildings, sustainability, size, flexibility and planning considerations. It is also an expansion of our presentation in Dongguan on 23 February. It is not a comprehensive survey of existing approaches or possible ways forward, but it has homed in on certain specific issues and does give specific examples to make the suggestions concrete. It is recommended that more comprehensive research be done to establish previous work and experience internationally. It is also recommended that more research be done on lifestyles as a preliminary to developing at least three concepts for evaluation before proceeding to the detailed design of one concept for full prototyping and market testing. The goal at this point is not to define a single direction but to suggest several future trajectories for further consideration. By the same token, this report is not intended as an exhaustive description of the considerable base of knowledge and ideas brought by the PolyU team to this exciting task. Before taking on an issue of this magnitude and importance in the definition of Hong Kong's future, one must carry out a thoughtful analysis of the issues at hand and an informed definition of paradigms, directions, goals and methods whereby our energies can be best used in the next steps. This report is the result of this analysis

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Heart disease is attributed as the highest cause of death in the world. Although this could be alleviated by heart transplantation, there is a chronic shortage of donor hearts and so mechanical solutions are being considered. Currently, many Ventricular Assist Devices (VADs) are being developed worldwide in an effort to increase life expectancy and quality of life for end stage heart failure patients. Current pre-clinical testing methods for VADs involve laboratory testing using Mock Circulation Loops (MCLs), and in vivo testing in animal models. The research and development of highly accurate MCLs is vital to the continuous improvement of VAD performance. The first objective of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model of a MCL. This model could then be used in the design and construction of a variable compliance chamber to improve the performance of an existing MCL as well as form the basis for a new miniaturised MCL. An extensive review of literature was carried out on MCLs and mathematical modelling of their function. A mathematical model of a MCL was then created in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. This model included variable features such as resistance, fluid inertia and volumes (resulting from the pipe lengths and diameters); compliance of Windkessel chambers, atria and ventricles; density of both fluid and compressed air applied to the system; gravitational effects on vertical columns of fluid; and accurately modelled actuators controlling the ventricle contraction. This model was then validated using the physical properties and pressure and flow traces produced from a previously developed MCL. A variable compliance chamber was designed to reproduce parameters determined by the mathematical model. The function of the variability was achieved by controlling the transmural pressure across a diaphragm to alter the compliance of the system. An initial prototype was tested in a previously developed MCL, and a variable level of arterial compliance was successfully produced; however, the complete range of compliance values required for accurate physiological representation was not able to be produced with this initial design. The mathematical model was then used to design a smaller physical mock circulation loop, with the tubing sizes adjusted to produce accurate pressure and flow traces whilst having an appropriate frequency response characteristic. The development of the mathematical model greatly assisted the general design of an in vitro cardiovascular device test rig, while the variable compliance chamber allowed simple and real-time manipulation of MCL compliance to allow accurate transition between a variety of physiological conditions. The newly developed MCL produced an accurate design of a mechanical representation of the human circulatory system for in vitro cardiovascular device testing and education purposes. The continued improvement of VAD test rigs is essential if VAD design is to improve, and hence improve quality of life and life expectancy for heart failure patients.

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Biotribology, the study of lubrication, wear and friction within the body, has become a topic of high importance in recent times as we continue to encounter debilitating diseases and trauma that destroy function of the joints. A highly successful surgical procedure to replace the joint with an artificial equivalent alleviates dysfunction and pain. However, the wear of the bearing surfaces in prosthetic joints is a significant clinical problem and more patients are surviving longer than the life expectancy of the joint replacement. Revision surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality and has a far less successful outcome than primary joint replacement. As such, it is essential to ensure that everything possible is done to limit the rate of revision surgery. Past experience indicates that the survival rate of the implant will be influenced by many parameters, of primary importance, the material properties of the implant, the composition of the synovial fluid and the method of lubrication. In prosthetic joints, effective boundary lubrication is known to take place. The interaction of the boundary lubricant and the bearing material is of utmost importance. The identity of the vital active ingredient within synovial fluid (SF) to which we owe the near frictionless performance of our articulating joints has been the quest of researchers for many years. Once identified, tribo tests can determine what materials and more importantly what surfaces this fraction of SF can function most optimally with. Surface-Active Phospholipids (SAPL) have been implicated as the body’s natural load bearing lubricant. Studies in this thesis are the first to fully characterise the adsorbed SAPL detected on the surface of retrieved prostheses and the first to verify the presence of SAPL on knee prostheses. Rinsings from the bearing surfaces of both hip and knee prostheses removed from revision operations were analysed using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) to determine the presence and profile of SAPL. Several common prosthetic materials along with a novel biomaterial were investigated to determine their tribological interaction with various SAPLs. A pin-on-flat tribometer was used to make comparative friction measurements between the various tribo-pairs. A novel material, Pyrolytic Carbon (PyC) was screened as a potential candidate as a load bearing prosthetic material. Friction measurements were also performed on explanted prostheses. SAPL was detected on all retrieved implant bearing surfaces. As a result of the study eight different species of phosphatidylcholines were identified. The relative concentrations of each species were also determined indicating that the unsaturated species are dominant. Initial tribo tests employed a saturated phosphatidylcholine (SPC) and the subsequent tests adopted the addition of the newly identified major constituents of SAPL, unsaturated phosphatidylcholine (USPC), as the test lubricant. All tribo tests showed a dramatic reduction in friction when synthetic SAPL was used as the lubricant under boundary lubrication conditions. Some tribopairs showed more of an affinity to SAPL than others. PyC performed superior to the other prosthetic materials. Friction measurements with explanted prostheses verified the presence and performance of SAPL. SAPL, in particular phosphatidylcholine, plays an essential role in the lubrication of prosthetic joints. Of particular interest was the ability of SAPLs to reduce friction and ultimately wear of the bearing materials. The identification and knowledge of the lubricating constituents of SF is invaluable for not only the future development of artificial joints but also in developing effective cures for several disease processes where lubrication may play a role. The tribological interaction of the various tribo-pairs and SAPL is extremely favourable in the context of reducing friction at the bearing interface. PyC is highly recommended as a future candidate material for use in load bearing prosthetic joints considering its impressive tribological performance.

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The obesity epidemic is a global trend and is of particular concern in children. Recent reports have highlighted the severity of obesity in children by suggesting: “today's generation of children will be the first for over a century for whom life expectancy falls.” This review assesses the evidence that identifies the important role of physical activity in the growth, development and physical health of young people, owing to its numerous physical and psychological health benefits. Key issues, such as “does a sedentary lifestyle automatically lead to obesity” and “are levels of physical activity in today's children less than physical activity levels in children from previous generations?”, are also discussed. Today's environment enforces an inactive lifestyle that is likely to contribute to a positive energy balance and childhood obesity. Whether a child or adolescent, the evidence is conclusive that physical activity is conducive to a healthy lifestyle and prevention of disease. Habitual physical activity established during the early years may provide the greatest likelihood of impact on mortality and longevity. It is evident that environmental factors need to change if physical activity strategies are to have a significant impact on increasing habitual physical activity levels in children and adolescents. There is also a need for more evidence-based physical activity guidelines for children of all ages. Efforts should be concentrated on facilitating an active lifestyle for children in an attempt to put a stop to the increasing prevalence of obese children

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Over the years, approaches to obesity prevention and treatment have gone from focusing on genetic and other biological factors to exploring a diversity of diets and individual behavior modification interventions anchored primarily in the power of the mind, to the recent shift focusing on societal interventions to design ";temptation-proof"; physical, social, and economic environments. In spite of repeated calls to action, including those of the World Health Organization (WHO), the pandemic continues to progress. WHO recently projected that if the current lifestyle trend in young and adult populations around the world persist, by 2012 in countries like the USA, health care costs may amount to as much as 17.7% of the GDP. Most importantly, in large part due to the problems of obesity, those children may be the first generation ever to have a shorter life expectancy than that of their parents. This work presents the most current research and proposals for addressing the pandemic. Past studies have focused primarly on either genetic or behavioral causes for obesity, however today's research indicates that a strongly integrated program is the best prospect for success in overcoming obesity. Furthermore, focus on the role of society in establishing an affordable, accessible and sustainable program for implementing these lifestyle changes is vital, particularly for those in economically challenged situations, who are ultimately at the highest risk for obesity. Using studies from both neuroscience and behavioral science to present a comprehensive overview of the challenges and possible solutions, The brain-to-society approach to obesity prevention focuses on what is needed in order to sustain a healthy, pleasurable and affordable lifestyle.

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The paper explores the way in which the life of concrete sleepers can be dramatically affected by two important factors, namely impact forces and fatigue cycles. Drawing on the very limited experimental and field data currently available about these two factors, the paper describes detailed simulations of sleepers in a heavy haul track in Queensland Australia over a period of 100 years. The simulation uses real wheel/rail impact force records from that track, together with data on static bending tests of similar sleepers and preliminary information on their impact vs static strength. The simulations suggest that despite successful performance over many decades, large unplanned replacement costs could be imminent, especially considering the increasingly demanding operational conditions sleepers have sustained over their life. The paper also discusses the key factors track owners need to consider in attempting to plan for these developments.

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Aim: Bone loss associated with trauma, osteo-degenerative diseases and tumors has tremendous socioeconomic impact related to personal and occupation disability and health care costs. In the present climate of increasing life expectancy with an ensuing increase in bone-related injuries, orthopaedic surgery is undergoing a paradigm shift from bone-grafting to bone engineering, where a scaffold is implanted to provide adequate load bearing and enhance tissue regeneration. We aim to develop composite scaffolds for bone tissue engineering applications to replace the current gold standard of autografting. ---------- Methods: Medical grade polycaprolactone-tricalcium phosphate (mPCL/TCP) scaffolds (80/20 wt%) were custom made using fused deposition modelling to produce 1x1.5x2 cm sized implants for critical-sized pig cranial implantations, empty defects were used as a control. Autologous bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) were extracted and precultured for 2 weeks, dispersed within fibrin glue and injected during scaffold implantation. After 2 years, microcomputed tomography and histology were used to assess bone regenerative capabilities of cell versus cell-free scaffolds. ---------- Results: Extensive bone regeneration was evident throughout the entire scaffold. Clear osteocytes embedded within mineralised matrix and active osteoblasts present around scaffold struts were observed. Cell groups performed better than cell-free scaffolds. ---------- Conclusions: Bone regeneration within defects which cannot heal unassisted can be achieved using mPCL/TCP scaffolds. This is improved by the inclusion of autogenous BMSCs. Further work will include the inclusion of growth factors including BMP-2, VEGF and PDGF to provide multifunctional scaffolds, where the three-dimensional (3D) template itself acts as a biomimetic, programmable and multi-drug delivery device.

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Bone loss associated with trauma osteo-degenerative diseases and tumors has tremendous socioeconomic impact related to personal and occupation disability and health care costs. Bone grafting is often critical to surgical therapies. Autogenous bone is presently the preferred grafting material; however, this holds several disadvantages such as donor site morbidity. In the present climate of increasing life expectancy with an ensuing increase in bone-related injuries, orthopaedic surgery is undergoing a paradigm shift from bone-grafting to bone engineering, where a scaffold is implanted to provide adequate load bearing and enhance tissue regeneration. Our group at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) have developed, characterised and tested polycaprolactone/ tricalcium phosphate (PCL/TCP) composite scaffolds for low load-bearing bone defects. These scaffolds are being further developed for application in higher load bearing sites. Our approach emphasizes the importance of the biomaterials’ structural design, the scaffold architecture and structural and nutritional requirements for cell culture. These first-generation scaffolds made from medical grade PCL (mPCL) have been studied for more than 5 years within a clinical setting 1. This paper describes the application of second-generation scaffolds in small and large animal bone defect models and the ensuing bone regeneration as shown by histology and µCT.

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This thesis reports on the findings of a study which sought to explore the relationship between grandparents and their grandchild who has a disability. In contrast to previous studies, it presents the grandparents’ perspective on the roles and relationships they maintain within their families and adopts a qualitative approach to identify the meanings, symbols and beliefs grandparents attribute to their experiences. Grandparents have played and continue to play an important role in the lives of many families, contributing both symbolic and instrumental support to their grandchildren. Changing life expectancy for older people has meant that many more grandparents and grandchildren now have the opportunity to participate in meaningful interactions and to develop strong relationships. In the future, this will be true for great grandparents and in some cases great great grandparents as well. This presents a number of challenges to all concerned as family members negotiate the often complex arena of family life in the 21st Century. Realizing that a grandchild has a disability adds another degree of complexity to the negotiation of roles and responsibilities of grandparents within families. By focussing on grandparents experiences when their grandchild has a disability, this research both explores a knowledge gap in the current literature and more practicably, will inform both grandparents and their families as they negotiate these challenges. This research makes a significant contribution to knowledge in this area by exploring grandparents’ views on the differences in the relationship they have with their typically developing grandchildren and their grandchild with a disability; the impact having a grandchild with a disability had had on their grandparent identity and whether it impacted on quality of life. As well as reporting on the aims of the study, the papers presented in this thesis report on the key topics and themes identified in the analysis of the transcribed interviews conducted with 22 grandparents whose grandchild has a disability. Article 1 presents an overview of the literature which informs current knowledge in relation to grandparents, presenting a historical and theoretical perspective. Additionally, it presents previous literature which discusses the roles and styles grandparents adopt thus providing a framework which is later used to examine the roles and styles adopted by the grandparents in the study. Article 2 addresses the emotional responses grandparents in the study experienced as they grandparented a child with a disability. Comparing these emotions to that of a roller coaster ride, ranging from absolute sadness and grief to pride and delight, these findings highlight their unique experiences and will be reassuring for other grandparents who experience similar emotional responses. Article 3 discusses from the grandparents’ perspective, how having a grandchild with a disability has impacted on their family. Whilst reporting on the day to day challenges of competing family commitments and conflict, a number of grandparents in this study also commented that the experience had made them closer as a family and that there had been significant changes in how some individual family members now viewed people with disability. Article 4 explores the impact having a grandchild with a disability may have on the grandparents’ sense of identity and enactment of the grandparent role, utilising Neugarten and Weinstein’s (1964) classic grandparenting styles and Kornhaber’s (1996) concepts of latent and functional grandparent identity as a basis for comparison. It provides important insight into grandparenting identity when a child has a disability, suggesting that the grandparenting experience and role enactment may be universal with only the context and delivery varying. In summary, this thesis confirms the valuable role grandparents play in the lives of grandchildren who have a disability and their families. It identifies a number of implications and makes recommendations for future research and practice.