An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Political information choices in a media saturated environment : credibility or convenience?

This thesis examines the ways in which citizens find out about socio-political issues. The project set out to discover how audience characteristics such as scepticism towards the media, gratifications sought, need for cognition and political interest influence information selection. While most previous information choice studies have focused on how individuals select from a narrow range of media types, this thesis considered a much wider sweep of the information landscape. This approach was taken to obtain an understanding of information choices in a more authentic context - in everyday life, people are not simply restricted to one or two news sources. Rather, they may obtain political information from a vast range of information sources, including media sources (e.g. radio, television, newspapers) and sources from beyond the media (eg. interpersonal sources, public speaking events, social networking websites). Thus, the study included both media and non-news media information sources. Data collection for the project consisted of a written, postal survey. The survey was administered to a probability sample in the greater Brisbane region, which is the third largest city in Australia. Data was collected during March and April 2008, approximately four months after the 2007 Australian Federal Election. Hence, the study was conducted in a non-election context. 585 usable surveys were obtained. In addition to measuring the attitudinal characteristics listed above, respondents were surveyed as to which information sources (eg. television shows, radio stations, websites and festivals) they usually use to find out about socio-political issues. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to explore patterns of influence between the audience characteristics and information consumption patterns. The results of this analysis indicated an apparent difference between the way citizens use news media sources and the way they use information sources from beyond the news media. In essence, it appears that non-news media information sources are used very deliberately to seek socio-political information, while media sources are used in a less purposeful way. If media use in a non-election context, such as that of the present study, is not primarily concerned with deliberate information seeking, media use must instead have other primary purposes, with political information acquisition as either a secondary driver, or a by-product of that primary purpose. It appears, then, that political information consumption in a media-saturated society is more about routine ‘practices’ than it is about ‘information seeking’. The suggestion that media use is no longer primarily concerned with information seeking, but rather, is simply a behaviour which occurs within the broader set of everyday practices reflects Couldry’s (2004) media as practice paradigm. These findings highlight the need for more authentic and holistic contexts for media research. It is insufficient to consider information choices in isolation, or even from a wider range of information sources, such as that incorporated in the present study. Future media research must take greater account of the broader social contexts and practices in which media-oriented behaviours occur. The findings also call into question the previously assumed centrality of trust to information selection decisions. Citizens regularly use media they do not trust to find out about politics. If people are willing to use information sources they do not trust for democratically important topics such as politics, it is important that citizens possess the media literacy skills to effectively understand and evaluate the information they are presented with. Without the application of such media literacy skills, a steady diet of ‘fast food’ media may result in uninformed or misinformed voting decisions, which have implications for the effectiveness of democratic processes. This research has emphasized the need for further holistic and authentically contextualised media use research, to better understand how citizens use information sources to find out about important topics such as politics.

Development of a data mining-based analysis framework for multi-attribute construction project information

Data mining techniques extract repeated and useful patterns from a large data set that in turn are utilized to predict the outcome of future events. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and develop an efficient framework for multi-attribute project information analysis to predict the performance of construction projects. The research team first reviewed existing data mining algorithms, applied them to systematically analyze a large project data set collected by the survey, and finally proposed a data-mining-based decision support framework for project performance prediction. To evaluate the potential of the framework, a case study was conducted using data collected from 139 capital projects and analyzed the relationship between use of information technology and project cost performance. The study results showed that the proposed framework has potential to promote fast, easy to use, interpretable, and accurate project data analysis.

An assessment system for evaluation of driving competencies

Automobiles have deeply impacted the way in which we travel but they have also contributed to many deaths and injury due to crashes. A number of reasons for these crashes have been pointed out by researchers. Inexperience has been identified as a contributing factor to road crashes. Driver’s driving abilities also play a vital role in judging the road environment and reacting in-time to avoid any possible collision. Therefore driver’s perceptual and motor skills remain the key factors impacting on road safety. Our failure to understand what is really important for learners, in terms of competent driving, is one of the many challenges for building better training programs. Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at decreasing the number of crashes that involve young drivers. Currently, there is a need to develop comprehensive driver evaluation system that benefits from the advances in Driver Assistance Systems. A multidisciplinary approach is necessary to explain how driving abilities evolves with on-road driving experience. To our knowledge, driver assistance systems have never been comprehensively used in a driver training context to assess the safety aspect of driving. The aim and novelty of this thesis is to develop and evaluate an Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) as an automated assessment tool that will help drivers and their trainers to comprehensively view complex driving manoeuvres and potentially provide effective feedback by post processing the data recorded during driving. This system is designed to help driver trainers to accurately evaluate driver performance and has the potential to provide valuable feedback to the drivers. Since driving is dependent on fuzzy inputs from the driver (i.e. approximate distance calculation from the other vehicles, approximate assumption of the other vehicle speed), it is necessary that the evaluation system is based on criteria and rules that handles uncertain and fuzzy characteristics of the driving tasks. Therefore, the proposed IDTS utilizes fuzzy set theory for the assessment of driver performance. The proposed research program focuses on integrating the multi-sensory information acquired from the vehicle, driver and environment to assess driving competencies. After information acquisition, the current research focuses on automated segmentation of the selected manoeuvres from the driving scenario. This leads to the creation of a model that determines a “competency” criterion through the driving performance protocol used by driver trainers (i.e. expert knowledge) to assess drivers. This is achieved by comprehensively evaluating and assessing the data stream acquired from multiple in-vehicle sensors using fuzzy rules and classifying the driving manoeuvres (i.e. overtake, lane change, T-crossing and turn) between low and high competency. The fuzzy rules use parameters such as following distance, gaze depth and scan area, distance with respect to lanes and excessive acceleration or braking during the manoeuvres to assess competency. These rules that identify driving competency were initially designed with the help of expert’s knowledge (i.e. driver trainers). In-order to fine tune these rules and the parameters that define these rules, a driving experiment was conducted to identify the empirical differences between novice and experienced drivers. The results from the driving experiment indicated that significant differences existed between novice and experienced driver, in terms of their gaze pattern and duration, speed, stop time at the T-crossing, lane keeping and the time spent in lanes while performing the selected manoeuvres. These differences were used to refine the fuzzy membership functions and rules that govern the assessments of the driving tasks. Next, this research focused on providing an integrated visual assessment interface to both driver trainers and their trainees. By providing a rich set of interactive graphical interfaces, displaying information about the driving tasks, Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) visualisation module has the potential to give empirical feedback to its users. Lastly, the validation of the IDTS system’s assessment was conducted by comparing IDTS objective assessments, for the driving experiment, with the subjective assessments of the driver trainers for particular manoeuvres. Results show that not only IDTS was able to match the subjective assessments made by driver trainers during the driving experiment but also identified some additional driving manoeuvres performed in low competency that were not identified by the driver trainers due to increased mental workload of trainers when assessing multiple variables that constitute driving. The validation of IDTS emphasized the need for an automated assessment tool that can segment the manoeuvres from the driving scenario, further investigate the variables within that manoeuvre to determine the manoeuvre’s competency and provide integrated visualisation regarding the manoeuvre to its users (i.e. trainers and trainees). Through analysis and validation it was shown that IDTS is a useful assistance tool for driver trainers to empirically assess and potentially provide feedback regarding the manoeuvres undertaken by the drivers.

Towards a smart cancer registry

Aims Pathology notification for a Cancer Registry is regarded as the most valid information for the confirmation of a diagnosis of cancer. In view of the importance of pathology data, an automatic medical text analysis system (Medtex) is being developed to perform electronic Cancer Registry data extraction and coding of important clinical information embedded within pathology reports. Methods The system automatically scans HL7 messages received from a Queensland pathology information system and analyses the reports for terms and concepts relevant to a cancer notification. A multitude of data items for cancer notification such as primary site, histological type, stage, and other synoptic data are classified by the system. The underlying extraction and classification technology is based on SNOMED CT1 2. The Queensland Cancer Registry business rules3 and International Classification of Diseases – Oncology – Version 34 have been incorporated. Results The cancer notification services show that the classification of notifiable reports can be achieved with sensitivities of 98% and specificities of 96%5, while the coding of cancer notification items such as basis of diagnosis, histological type and grade, primary site and laterality can be extracted with an overall accuracy of 80%6. In the case of lung cancer staging, the automated stages produced were accurate enough for the purposes of population level research and indicative staging prior to multi-disciplinary team meetings2 7. Medtex also allows for detailed tumour stream synoptic reporting8. Conclusions Medtex demonstrates how medical free-text processing could enable the automation of some Cancer Registry processes. Over 70% of Cancer Registry coding resources are devoted to information acquisition. The development of a clinical decision support system to unlock information from medical free-text could significantly reduce costs arising from duplicated processes and enable improved decision support, enhancing efficiency and timeliness of cancer information for Cancer Registries.

Enhancing the trust of location acquisition systems for critical applications and location-based security services

This paper identifies a number of critical infrastructure applications that are reliant on location services from cooperative location technologies such as GPS and GSM. We show that these location technologies can be represented in a general location model, such that the model components can be used for vulnerability analysis. We perform a vulnerability analysis on these components of GSM and GPS location systems as well as a number of augmentations to these systems.

Extending the advanced forensic format to accommodate multiple data sources, logical evidence, arbitrary information and forensic workflow

Forensic analysis requires the acquisition and management of many different types of evidence, including individual disk drives, RAID sets, network packets, memory images, and extracted files. Often the same evidence is reviewed by several different tools or examiners in different locations. We propose a backwards-compatible redesign of the Advanced Forensic Formatdan open, extensible file format for storing and sharing of evidence, arbitrary case related information and analysis results among different tools. The new specification, termed AFF4, is designed to be simple to implement, built upon the well supported ZIP file format specification. Furthermore, the AFF4 implementation has downward comparability with existing AFF files.

A visualisation framework for collaborative virtual environment usage information

Due to the popularity of modern Collaborative Virtual Environments, there has been a related increase in their size and complexity. Developers therefore need visualisations that expose usage patterns from logged data, to understand the structures and dynamics of these complex environments. This chapter presents a new framework for the process of visualising virtual environment usage data. Major components, such as an event model, designer task model and data acquisition infrastructure are described. Interface and implementation factors are also developed, along with example visualisation techniques that make use of the new task and event model. A case study is performed to illustrate a typical scenario for the framework, and its benefits to the environment development team.

Personalised ontology learning and mining for web information gathering

Over the last decade, the rapid growth and adoption of the World Wide Web has further exacerbated user needs for e±cient mechanisms for information and knowledge location, selection, and retrieval. How to gather useful and meaningful information from the Web becomes challenging to users. The capture of user information needs is key to delivering users' desired information, and user pro¯les can help to capture information needs. However, e®ectively acquiring user pro¯les is di±cult. It is argued that if user background knowledge can be speci¯ed by ontolo- gies, more accurate user pro¯les can be acquired and thus information needs can be captured e®ectively. Web users implicitly possess concept models that are obtained from their experience and education, and use the concept models in information gathering. Prior to this work, much research has attempted to use ontologies to specify user background knowledge and user concept models. However, these works have a drawback in that they cannot move beyond the subsumption of super - and sub-class structure to emphasising the speci¯c se- mantic relations in a single computational model. This has also been a challenge for years in the knowledge engineering community. Thus, using ontologies to represent user concept models and to acquire user pro¯les remains an unsolved problem in personalised Web information gathering and knowledge engineering. In this thesis, an ontology learning and mining model is proposed to acquire user pro¯les for personalised Web information gathering. The proposed compu- tational model emphasises the speci¯c is-a and part-of semantic relations in one computational model. The world knowledge and users' Local Instance Reposito- ries are used to attempt to discover and specify user background knowledge. From a world knowledge base, personalised ontologies are constructed by adopting au- tomatic or semi-automatic techniques to extract user interest concepts, focusing on user information needs. A multidimensional ontology mining method, Speci- ¯city and Exhaustivity, is also introduced in this thesis for analysing the user background knowledge discovered and speci¯ed in user personalised ontologies. The ontology learning and mining model is evaluated by comparing with human- based and state-of-the-art computational models in experiments, using a large, standard data set. The experimental results are promising for evaluation. The proposed ontology learning and mining model in this thesis helps to develop a better understanding of user pro¯le acquisition, thus providing better design of personalised Web information gathering systems. The contributions are increasingly signi¯cant, given both the rapid explosion of Web information in recent years and today's accessibility to the Internet and the full text world.

A constraints-led perspective to understanding skill acquisition and game play: A basis for integration of motor learning theory and physical education praxis?

Background: In order to design appropriate environments for performance and learning of movement skills, physical educators need a sound theoretical model of the learner and of processes of learning. In physical education, this type of modelling informs the organization of learning environments and effective and efficient use of practice time. An emerging theoretical framework in motor learning, relevant to physical education, advocates a constraints-led perspective for acquisition of movement skills and game play knowledge. This framework shows how physical educators could use task, performer and environmental constraints to channel acquisition of movement skills and decision making behaviours in learners. From this viewpoint, learners generate specific movement solutions to satisfy the unique combination of constraints imposed on them, a process which can be harnessed during physical education lessons. Purpose: In this paper the aim is to provide an overview of the motor learning approach emanating from the constraints-led perspective, and examine how it can substantiate a platform for a new pedagogical framework in physical education: nonlinear pedagogy. We aim to demonstrate that it is only through theoretically valid and objective empirical work of an applied nature that a conceptually sound nonlinear pedagogy model can continue to evolve and support research in physical education. We present some important implications for designing practices in games lessons, showing how a constraints-led perspective on motor learning could assist physical educators in understanding how to structure learning experiences for learners at different stages, with specific focus on understanding the design of games teaching programmes in physical education, using exemplars from Rugby Union and Cricket. Findings: Research evidence from recent studies examining movement models demonstrates that physical education teachers need a strong understanding of sport performance so that task constraints can be manipulated so that information-movement couplings are maintained in a learning environment that is representative of real performance situations. Physical educators should also understand that movement variability may not necessarily be detrimental to learning and could be an important phenomenon prior to the acquisition of a stable and functional movement pattern. We highlight how the nonlinear pedagogical approach is student-centred and empowers individuals to become active learners via a more hands-off approach to learning. Summary: A constraints-based perspective has the potential to provide physical educators with a framework for understanding how performer, task and environmental constraints shape each individual‟s physical education. Understanding the underlying neurobiological processes present in a constraints-led perspective to skill acquisition and game play can raise awareness of physical educators that teaching is a dynamic 'art' interwoven with the 'science' of motor learning theories.

Translating competency statements into desired outcomes : a representational model for conceptualising the competency acquisition process

The need to develop effective and efficient training programs has been recognised by all sectors engaged in training. In responding to the above need, focus has been directed to developing good competency statements and performance indicators to measure the outcomes. Very little has been done to understand how the competency statements get translated into good performance. To conceptualise this translation process, a representational model based on an information processing paradigm is proposed and discussed. It is argued that learners’ prior knowledge and the effectiveness of the instructional material are two variables that have significant bearing on how effectively the competency knowledge is translated into outcomes. To contextualise the model examples from apprentice training are used.

Building the foundations : skill acquisition in children

Introduction: Why we need to base childrens’ sport and physical education on the principles of dynamical systems theory and ecological psychology As the childhood years are crucial for developing many physical skills as well as establishing the groundwork leading to lifelong participation in sport and physical activities, (Orlick & Botterill, 1977, p. 11) it is essential to examine current practice to make sure it is meeting the needs of children. In recent papers (e.g. Renshaw, Davids, Chow & Shuttleworth, in press; Renshaw, Davids, Chow & Hammond, in review; Chow et al., 2009) we have highlighted that a guiding theoretical framework is needed to provide a principled approach to teaching and coaching and that the approach must be evidence- based and focused on mechanism and not just on operational issues such as practice, competition and programme management (Lyle, 2002). There is a need to demonstrate how nonlinear pedagogy underpins teaching and coaching practice for children given that some of the current approaches underpinning children’s sport and P.E. may not be leading to optimal results. For example, little time is spent undertaking physical activities (Tinning, 2006) and much of this practice is not representative of the competition demands of the performance environment (Kirk & McPhail, 2002; Renshaw et al., 2008). Proponents of a non- linear pedagogy advocate the design of practice by applying key concepts such as the mutuality of the performer and environment, the tight coupling of perception and action, and the emergence of movement solutions due to self organisation under constraints (see Renshaw, et al., in press). As skills are shaped by the unique interacting individual, task and environmental constraints in these learning environments, small changes to individual structural (e.g. factors such as height or limb length) or functional constraints (e.g. factors such as motivation, perceptual skills, strength that can be acquired), task rules, equipment, or environmental constraints can lead to dramatic changes in movement patterns adopted by learners to solve performance problems. The aim of this chapter is to provide real life examples for teachers and coaches who wish to adopt the ideas of non- linear pedagogy in their practice. Specifically, I will provide examples related to specific issues related to individual constraints in children and in particular the unique challenges facing coaches when individual constraints are changing due to growth and development. Part two focuses on understanding how cultural environmental constraints impact on children’s sport. This is an area that has received very little attention but plays a very important part in the long- term development of sporting expertise. Finally, I will look at how coaches can manipulate task constraints to create effective learning environments for young children.

Recognition of expertise : an important concept in the acquisition of nephrology nursing expertise

The present article, which is abstracted from a larger study into the acquisition and exercise of nephrology nursing expertise, aims to explore the concept of recognition of expertise. The study used grounded theory methodology and involved 17 registered nurses who were practising in a metropolitan renal unit in New South Wales, Australia. Concurrent data collection and analysis was undertaken, incorporating participant observations and interviews. According to nurses in this study, patients, doctors and other nurses recognized that some nurses were experts while others were not. In addition, being trusted, being a role model and teaching others were important components of being recognized as an expert nephrology nurse. Of importance for nursing, the results of the present study indicate that knowledge and experience are not sufficient to ensure expert practice; recognition of expertise by others is an important function of expertise acquisition.

Library and information science education 2.0 : guiding principles and models of best practice ALTC Fellowship Report

This ALTC Teaching Fellowship aimed to establish Guiding Principles for Library and Information Science Education 2.0. The aim was achieved by (i) identifying the current and anticipated skills and knowledge required by successful library and information science (LIS) professionals in the age of web 2.0 (and beyond), (ii) establishing the current state of LIS education in Australia in supporting the development of librarian 2.0, and in doing so, identify models of best practice. The fellowship has contributed to curriculum renewal in the LIS profession. It has helped to ensure that LIS education in Australia continues to meet the changing skills and knowledge requirements of the profession it supports. It has also provided a vehicle through which LIS professionals and LIS educators may find opportunities for greater collaboration and more open communication. This will help bridge the gap between LIS theory and practice and will foster more authentic engagement between LIS education and other parts of the LIS industry in the education of the next generation of professionals. Through this fellowship the LIS discipline has become a role model for other disciplines who will be facing similar issues in the coming years. Eighty-one members of the Australian LIS profession participated in a series of focus groups exploring the current and anticipated skills and knowledge needed by the LIS professional in the web 2.0 world and beyond. Whilst each focus group tended to draw on specific themes of interest to that particular group of people, there was a great deal of common ground. Eight key themes emerged: technology, learning and education, research or evidence-based practice, communication, collaboration and team work, user focus, business savvy and personal traits. It was acknowledged that the need for successful LIS professionals to possess transferable skills and interpersonal attributes was not new. It was noted however that the speed with which things are changing in the web 2.0 world was having a significant impact and that this faster pace is placing a new and unexpected emphasis on the transferable skills and knowledge. It was also acknowledged that all librarians need to possess these skills, knowledge and attributes and not just the one or two role models who lead the way. The most interesting finding however was that web 2.0, library 2.0 and librarian 2.0 represented a ‘watershed’ for the LIS profession. Almost all the focus groups spoke about how they are seeing and experiencing a culture change in the profession. Librarian 2.0 requires a ‘different mindset or attitude’. The Levels of Perspective model by Daniel Kim provides one lens by which to view this finding. The focus group findings suggest that we are witnessing a re-awaking of the Australian LIS profession as it begins to move towards the higher levels of Kim’s model (ie mental models, vision). Thirty-six LIS educators participated in telephone interviews aimed at exploring the current state of LIS education in supporting the development of librarian 2.0. Skills and knowledge of LIS professionals in a web 2.0 world that were identified and discussed by the LIS educators mirrored those highlighted in the focus group discussions with LIS professionals. Similarly it was noted that librarian 2.0 needed a focus less on skills and knowledge and more on attitude. However, whilst LIS professionals felt that there was a paradigm shift within the profession. LIS educators did not speak with one voice on this matter with quite a number of the educators suggesting that this might be ‘overstating it a bit’. This study provides evidence for “disparate viewpoints” (Hallam, 2007) between LIS educators and LIS professionals that can have a significant implications for the future of not just LIS professional education specifically but for the profession generally. Library and information science education 2.0: guiding principles and models of best practice 1 Inviting the LIS academics to discuss how their teaching and learning activities support the development of librarian 2.0 was a core part of the interviews conducted. The strategies used and the challenges faced by LIS educators in developing their teaching and learning approaches to support the formation of librarian 2.0 are identified and discussed. A core part of the fellowship was the identification of best practice examples on how LIS educators were developing librarian 2.0. Twelve best practice examples were identified. Each educator was recorded discussing his or her approach to teaching and learning. Videos of these interviews are available via the Fellowship blog at .The LIS educators involved in making the videos felt uncomfortable with the term ‘best practice’. Many acknowledged that there simply seeking to do the best by their students and that there was always room for improvement. For this reason these videos are offered as examples of “great practice”. The videos are a tool for other educators to use, regardless of discipline, in developing their teaching and learning approaches to supporting web 2.0 professionals. It has been argued that the main purpose of professional education is transformation (Dall’ Alba, 2009; Dall’Alba & Barnacle, 2007). As such professional education should focus not just on skills and knowledge acquisition but also on helping students to develop ways of being the professionals in question (ie LIS professionals, teachers, lawyers, engineers).The aim of this fellowship was to establish Guidelines for Library and Information Science Education 2.0 it has however become apparent that at this point in time it is not yet possible to fulfil this aim. The fellowship has clearly identified skills and knowledge needed by the LIS professional in web 2.0 world (and beyond). It has also identified examples of ‘great practice’ by LIS educators as they endeavour to develop LIS professionals who will be successful in a web 20 world. The fellowship however has also shown that the LIS profession is currently undergoing significant attitudinal and conceptual change. Consequently, before a philosophy of LIS education 2.0 can be expressed, the Australian LIS profession must first explore and articulate what it means to be an LIS professional in the 21st century (ie a world of web 2.0 and beyond). In short, the LIS profession in Australia must take stock not of “what we know and can do” but on “who we are becoming” (Dall’Alba, 2009, p 34).