Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

An examination of the microscopic simulation models to identify traffic safety indicators

Evaluating the safety of different traffic facilities is a complex and crucial task. Microscopic simulation models have been widely used for traffic management but have been largely neglected in traffic safety studies. Micro simulation to study safety is more ethical and accessible than the traditional safety studies, which only assess historical crash data. However, current microscopic models are unable to mimic unsafe driver behavior, as they are based on presumptions of safe driver behavior. This highlights the need for a critical examination of the current microscopic models to determine which components and parameters have an effect on safety indicator reproduction. The question then arises whether these safety indicators are valid indicators of traffic safety. The safety indicators were therefore selected and tested for straight motorway segments in Brisbane, Australia. This test examined the capability of a micro-simulation model and presents a better understanding of micro-simulation models and how such models, in particular car following models can be enriched to present more accurate safety indicators.

The influence of fleet safety climate on occupational driver behaviours

The concepts of traffic safety culture and climate hold considerable impact on road safety outcomes. Data sourced from four Australian organisations revealed a five factor structure that was consistent with previous research, which were: management commitment; work demands; relationships; appropriateness of rules; and communication. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to identify which aspects of fleet safety climate were related to driver behaviours. The findings suggest that organisations may be able to reduce the likelihood of employees engaging in unsafe driving behaviours as a result of fatigue or distractions through increasing aspects of fleet safety climate, including: management commitment; level of trust; safety communication; appropriateness of work demands; and appropriateness of safety policies and procedures. To assist practitioners in enhancing fleet safety climate and managing occupational road risks, recommendations are made based on these findings, such as fostering a supportive environment of mutual responsibility.

Traffic safety culture : what can we learn from Australia?

-- The role of traffic safety culture in Australia -- A comparison of drink driving (a success story) and speeding (a work in progress) ―Countermeasure approaches ―Community attitudes, perceptions and behaviors -- Lessons from Australia for the further development of the traffic safety culture concept

A framework for conceptualising traffic safety culture

Traffic safety culture is a relatively new concept which has recently gained attention in the field of traffic safety. There is currently little known regarding the nature of the concept, nor how it should be defined. Preliminary definitions have tended to focus on specific road safety problems and the anticipated effect of a strong traffic safety culture. The literature to date has tended to emphasise how traffic safety culture might be created or shaped. However, without a better understanding of the nature and structure of traffic safety culture, discussions regarding changes to traffic safety culture are restricted. An examination of different conceptualisations and definitions of organisational safety culture provides a preliminary theoretical framework for traffic safety culture. Two high risk driving behaviours within the Australian context are compared to illustrate how key factors within this framework can be used to understand and improve road safety outcomes.

Rural and remote road safety study : final report

• Introduction: Concern and action for rural road safety is relatively new in Australia in comparison to the field of traffic safety as a whole. In 2003, a program of research was begun by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) and the Rural Health Research Unit (RHRU) at James Cook University to investigate factors contributing to serious rural road crashes in the North Queensland region. This project was funded by the Premier’s Department, Main Roads Department, Queensland Transport, QFleet, Queensland Rail, Queensland Ambulance Service, Department of Natural Resources and Queensland Police Service. Additional funding was provided by NRMA Insurance for a PhD scholarship. In-kind support was provided through the four hospitals used for data collection, namely Cairns Base Hospital, The Townsville Hospital, Mount Isa Hospital and Atherton Hospital.----- The primary aim of the project was to: Identify human factors related to the occurrence of serious traffic incidents in rural and remote areas of Australia, and to the trauma suffered by persons as a result of these incidents, using a sample drawn from a rural and remote area in North Queensland.----- The data and analyses presented in this report are the core findings from two broad studies: a general examination of fatalities and casualties from rural and remote crashes for the period 1 March 2004 until 30 June 2007, and a further linked case-comparison study of hospitalised patients compared with a sample of non-crash-involved drivers.----- • Method: The study was undertaken in rural North Queensland, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) statistical divisions of North Queensland, Far North Queensland and North-West Queensland. Urban areas surrounding Townsville, Thuringowa and Cairns were not included. The study methodology was centred on serious crashes, as defined by a resulting hospitalisation for 24 hours or more and/or a fatality. Crashes meeting this criteria within the North Queensland region between 1 March 2004 and 30 June 2007 were identified through hospital records and interviewed where possible. Additional data was sourced from coroner’s reports, the Queensland Transport road crash database, the Queensland Ambulance Service and the study hospitals in the region.----- This report is divided into chapters corresponding to analyses conducted on the collected crash and casualty data.----- Chapter 3 presents an overview of all crashes and casualties identified during the study period. Details are presented in regard to the demographics and road user types of casualties; the locations, times, types, and circumstances of crashes; along with the contributing circumstances of crashes.----- Chapter 4 presents the results of summary statistics for all casualties for which an interview was able to be conducted. Statistics are presented separately for drivers and riders, passengers, pedestrians and cyclists. Details are also presented separately for drivers and riders crashing in off-road and on-road settings. Results from questionnaire data are presented in relation to demographics; the experience of the crash in narrative form; vehicle characteristics and maintenance; trip characteristics (e.g. purpose and length of journey; periods of fatigue and monotony; distractions from driving task); driving history; alcohol and drug use; medical history; driving attitudes, intentions and behaviour; attitudes to enforcement; and experience of road safety advertising.----- Chapter 5 compares the above-listed questionnaire results between on-road crash-involved casualties and interviews conducted in the region with non-crash-involved persons. Direct comparisons as well as age and sex adjusted comparisons are presented.----- Chapter 6 presents information on those casualties who were admitted to one of the study hospitals during the study period. Brief information is given regarding the demographic characteristics of these casualties. Emergency services’ data is used to highlight the characteristics of patient retrieval and transport to and between hospitals. The major injuries resulting from the crashes are presented for each region of the body and analysed by vehicle type, occupant type, seatbelt status, helmet status, alcohol involvement and nature of crash. Estimates are provided of the costs associated with in-hospital treatment and retrieval.----- Chapter 7 describes the characteristics of the fatal casualties and the nature and circumstances of the crashes. Demographics, road user types, licence status, crash type and contributing factors for crashes are presented. Coronial data is provided in regard to contributing circumstances (including alcohol, drugs and medical conditions), cause of death, resulting injuries, and restraint and helmet use.----- Chapter 8 presents the results of a comparison between casualties’ crash descriptions and police-attributed crash circumstances. The relative frequency of contributing circumstances are compared both broadly within the categories of behavioural, environmental, vehicle related, medical and other groupings and specifically for circumstances within these groups.----- Chapter 9 reports on the associated research projects which have been undertaken on specific topics related to rural road safety.----- Finally, Chapter 10 reports on the conclusions and recommendations made from the program of research.---- • Major Recommendations : From the findings of these analyses, a number of major recommendations were made: + Male drivers and riders - Male drivers and riders should continue to be the focus of interventions, given their very high representation among rural and remote road crash fatalities and serious injuries.----- - The group of males aged between 30 and 50 years comprised the largest number of casualties and must also be targeted for change if there is to be a meaningful improvement in rural and remote road safety.----- + Motorcyclists - Single vehicle motorcycle crashes constitute over 80% of serious, on-road rural motorcycle crashes and need particular attention in development of policy and infrastructure.----- - The motorcycle safety consultation process currently being undertaken by Queensland Transport (via the "Motorbike Safety in Queensland - Consultation Paper") is strongly endorsed. As part of this process, particular attention needs to be given to initiatives designed to reduce rural and single vehicle motorcycle crashes.----- - The safety of off-road riders is a serious problem that falls outside the direct responsibility of either Transport or Health departments. Responsibility for this issue needs to be attributed to develop appropriate policy, regulations and countermeasures.----- + Road safety for Indigenous people - Continued resourcing and expansion of The Queensland Aboriginal Peoples and Torres Strait Islander Peoples Driver Licensing Program to meet the needs of remote and Indigenous communities with significantly lower licence ownership levels.----- - Increased attention needs to focus on the contribution of geographic disadvantage (remoteness) factors to remote and Indigenous road trauma.----- + Road environment - Speed is the ‘final common pathway’ in determining the severity of rural and remote crashes and rural speed limits should be reduced to 90km/hr for sealed off-highway roads and 80km/hr for all unsealed roads as recommended in the Austroads review and in line with the current Tasmanian government trial.----- - The Department of Main Roads should monitor rural crash clusters and where appropriate work with local authorities to conduct relevant audits and take mitigating action. - The international experts at the workshop reviewed the data and identified the need to focus particular attention on road design management for dangerous curves. They also indicated the need to maximise the use of audio-tactile linemarking (audible lines) and rumble strips to alert drivers to dangerous conditions and behaviours.----- + Trauma costs - In accordance with Queensland Health priorities, recognition should be given to the substantial financial costs associated with acute management of trauma resulting from serious rural and remote crashes.----- - Efforts should be made to develop a comprehensive, regionally specific costing formula for road trauma that incorporates the pre-hospital, hospital and post-hospital phases of care. This would inform health resource allocation and facilitate the evaluation of interventions.----- - The commitment of funds to the development of preventive strategies to reduce rural and remote crashes should take into account the potential cost savings associated with trauma.----- - A dedicated study of the rehabilitation needs and associated personal and healthcare costs arising from rural and remote road crashes should be undertaken.----- + Emergency services - While the study has demonstrated considerable efficiency in the response and retrieval systems of rural and remote North Queensland, relevant Intelligent Transport Systems technologies (such as vehicle alarm systems) to improve crash notification should be both developed and evaluated.----- + Enforcement - Alcohol and speed enforcement programs should target the period between 2 and 6pm because of the high numbers of crashes in the afternoon period throughout the rural region.----- + Drink driving - Courtesy buses should be advocated and schemes such as the Skipper project promoted as local drink driving countermeasures in line with the very high levels of community support for these measures identified in the hospital study.------ - Programs should be developed to target the high levels of alcohol consumption identified in rural and remote areas and related involvement in crashes.----- - Referrals to drink driving rehabilitation programs should be mandated for recidivist offenders.----- + Data requirements - Rural and remote road crashes should receive the same quality of attention as urban crashes. As such, it is strongly recommended that increased resources be committed to enable dedicated Forensic Crash Units to investigate rural and remote fatal and serious injury crashes.----- - Transport department records of rural and remote crashes should record the crash location using the national ARIA area classifications used by health departments as a means to better identifying rural crashes.----- - Rural and remote crashes tend to be unnoticed except in relatively infrequent rural reviews. They should receive the same level of attention and this could be achieved if fatalities and fatal crashes were coded by the ARIA classification system and included in regular crash reporting.----- - Health, Transport and Police agencies should collect a common, minimal set of data relating to road crashes and injuries, including presentations to small rural and remote health facilities.----- + Media and community education programmes - Interventions seeking to highlight the human contribution to crashes should be prioritised. Driver distraction, alcohol and inappropriate speed for the road conditions are key examples of such behaviours.----- - Promotion of basic safety behaviours such as the use of seatbelts and helmets should be given a renewed focus.----- - Knowledge, attitude and behavioural factors that have been identified for the hospital Brief Intervention Trial should be considered in developing safety campaigns for rural and remote people. For example challenging the myth of the dangerous ‘other’ or ‘non-local’ driver.----- - Special educational initiatives on the issues involved in rural and remote driving should be undertaken. For example the material used by Main Roads, the Australian Defence Force and local initiatives.

The effect of traffic lane widths on the safety of cyclists in urban areas

This literature review examines the relationship between traffic lane widths on the safety of road users. It focuses on the impacts of lane widths on motor vehicle behaviour and cyclists’ safety. The review commenced with a search of available databases. Peer reviewed articles and road authority reports were reviewed, as well as current engineering guidelines. Research shows that traffic lane width influences drivers’ perceived difficulty of the task, risk perception and possibly speed choices. Total roadway width, and the presence of onroad cycling facilities, influence cyclists’ positioning on the road. Lateral displacement between bicycles and vehicles is smallest when a marked bicycle facility is present. Reduced motor vehicle speeds can significantly improve the safety of vulnerable road users, particularly pedestrians and cyclists. It has been shown that if road lane widths on urban roads were reduced, through various mechanisms, it could result in a safety environment for all road users.

Designing university, government and industry community engagement to build informed and effective interventions in the area of road safety

Individuals, community organisations and industry have always been involved to varying degrees in efforts to address the Queensland road toll. Traditionally, road crash prevention efforts have been led by state and local government organisations. While community and industry groups have sometimes become involved (e.g. Driver Reviver campaign), their efforts have largely been uncoordinated and under-resourced. A common strength of these initiatives lies in the energy, enthusiasm and persistence of community-based efforts. Conversely, a weakness has sometimes been the lack of knowledge, awareness or prioritisation of evidence-based interventions or their capacity to build on collaborative efforts. In 2000, the Queensland University of Technology’s Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) identified this issue as an opportunity to bridge practice and research and began acknowledging a selection of these initiatives, in partnership with the RACQ, through the Queensland Road Safety Awards program. After nine years it became apparent there was need to strengthen this connection, with the Centre establishing a Community Engagement Workshop in 2009 as part of the overall Awards program. With an aim of providing community participants opportunities to see, hear and discuss the experiences of others, this event was further developed in 2010, and with the collaboration of the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, the RACQ, Queensland Police Service and Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd, a stand-alone Queensland Road Safety Awards Community Engagement Workshop was held in 2010. Each collaborating organisation recognised a need to mobilise the community through effective information and knowledge sharing, and recognised that learning and discussion can influence lasting behaviour change and action in this often emotive, yet not always evidence-based, area. This free event featured a number of speakers representing successful projects from around Australia and overseas. Attendees were encouraged to interact with the speakers, to ask questions, and most importantly, build connections with other attendees to build a ‘community road safety army’ all working throughout Australia on projects underpinned by evaluated research. The workshop facilitated the integration of research, policy and grass-roots action enhancing the success of community road safety initiatives. For collaboration partners, the event enabled them to transfer their knowledge in an engaged approach, working within a more personal communication process. An analysis of the success factors for this event identified openness to community groups and individuals, relevance of content to local initiatives, generous support with the provision of online materials and ongoing communication with key staff members as critical and supports the view that the university can directly provide both the leadership and the research needed for effective and credible community-based initiatives to address injury and death on the roads.

Evaluation of the GHR car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

An outcome evaluation of the ‘Skipper’ designated driver program

The general aim of designated driver programs is to reduce the level of drink driving by encouraging potential drink drivers to travel with a driver who has abstained from (or at least limited) consuming alcohol. Designated driver programs appear to be quite widespread around the world, however a limited number have been subject to rigorous evaluation. This paper reports results from an outcome evaluation of a designated driver program called ‘Skipper’, which was trialled in a provincial city in Queensland, Australia. The outcome evaluation included surveys three weeks prior to (baseline), four months following (1st follow-up), and 16 months following (2nd follow-up) the commencement of the trial in both the ‘intervention area’ (baseline, n = 202; 1st follow-up, n = 211; 2nd follow-up, n = 200) and a ‘comparison area’(baseline, n = 203; 1st follow-up, n = 199; 2nd follow-up, n = 201); and a comparison of random breath testing and crash data before and after the trial. The survey results indicate that awareness of the program in the intervention area was quite high four months following its introduction and that this was maintained at 16 months. The results also suggest that the ‘Skipper’ program and the related publicity had positive impacts on behaviour with an increase in the proportion of people participating in designated driver as a passenger. It is less clear, however, whether the ‘Skipper’ program impacted on other behaviours of interest, such as drink driving or involvement in alcohol-related crashes. Suggestions for further research and program improvement are discussed as well as limitations of the research.

Traffic safety at road-rail level crossings using a driving simulator and traffic simulation

A number of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) were used with an advanced driving simulator to assess its influence on driving behavior. Three types of ITS interventions namely, Video in-vehicle (ITS1), Audio in-vehicle (ITS2), and On-road flashing marker (ITS3) were tested. Then, the results from the driving simulator were used as inputs for a developed model using a traffic micro-simulation (Vissim 5.4) in order to assess the safety interventions. Using a driving simulator, 58 participants were required to drive through a number of active and passive crossings with and without an ITS device and in the presence or absence of an approaching train. The effect of driver behavior changing in terms of speed and compliance rate was greater at passive crossings than at active crossings. The difference in speed of drivers approaching ITS devices was very small which indicates that ITS helps drivers encounter the crossings in a safer way. Since the current traffic simulation was not able to replicate a dynamic speed change or a probability of stopping that varies based on different ITS safety devices, some modifications of the current traffic simulation were conducted. The results showed that exposure to ITS devices at active crossings did not influence the drivers’ behavior significantly according to the traffic performance indicators used, such as delay time, number of stops, speed, and stopped delay. On the other hand, the results of traffic simulation for passive crossings, where low traffic volumes and low train headway normally occur, showed that ITS devices improved overall traffic performance.

Disability due to road traffic crashes and the management of road safety in developing countries

Injury as a result of road traffic crashes is one of the most significant public health problems in developing countries. It intersects with disability as a development issue because a substantial proportion of people injured in road traffic crashes experience disability, both short term and long term. While there have been significant steps towards better management of road safety globally, especially in developing countries, the implications for road safety policy and practice of disability due road traffic crashes is not fully appreciated. In particular, qualitative information on the lived experience people with a long term disability as a result of a road traffic crash can inform better road safety policy and practice, as demonstrated in a case study from Thailand. The benefits of better policies and practices are likely to accrue to a wide range of road users, and to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development.

Policing of road safety in Oman: Perceptions and beliefs of traffic police officers

With increasing motorisation, road safety has become a major concern within Oman. Internationally, traffic policing plays a major role in improving road safety. Within Oman, the Royal Oman Police's (ROP) Directorate General of Traffic is responsible for policing traffic laws. Many common enforcement approaches originate from culturally different jurisdictions. The ROP is a relatively young policing force and may have different operational practices. Prior to applying practices from other jurisdictions it is important to understand the beliefs and expectations within the Directorate General of Traffic. Further, there is a need for individuals to understand their role and what is expected of them. Therefore, it is important to explore the agreement between levels of the ROP to determine how strategies and expectations transfer within the organisation. Interviews were conducted with 19 police officers from various levels of the ROP. A number of themes and findings emerged. Individuals at the upper level of the traffic police had a clear knowledge of the role of the ROP, believed that traffic police know what is expected of them, are well trained in their role and can have a very positive influence on road safety. These beliefs were less certain lower within the organisations with traffic officers having little knowledge of the role of the ROP or what was expected of them, felt undertrained, and believed their peers have little positive impact on road safety. There is a need to address barriers within the ROP in order to positively impact road safety.

An investigation into drink driving among aboriginal and Torres strait islander peoples in regional and remote Queensland and the development of the 'Hero to Healing' program

This program of research investigated the factors facilitating drink driving in Indigenous communities in Far North Queensland. Drink driving-related road crashes are a significant health burden for Indigenous people, as they die in road crashes at three times the rate of other Australians and are 30% more likely to be seriously injured. This research provided information to develop and pilot a culturally-specific program, 'Hero to Healing'. The main motivation to drink drive was related to 'kinship pressure; where drivers were pressured by family members to drive after drinking. The underlying responsibility for transporting family members was related to cultural values and involved responding to family needs as a priority. Exposure to older family members drink driving was considered to play a role in normalising the behaviour, leading to imitation into adulthood. The research highlighted the need to treat drink driving as a community issue, rather than an individual phenomenon.