A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Review : "Ghosts...of the Civil Dead" -- John Hillcoat

Synopsis and review of the Australian prison film Ghosts...of the Civil Dead (John Hillcoat, 1988). Drawing heavily from the book In the Belly of the Beast by American author and long-term prisoner Jack Henry Abbott, as well as from the historical and philosophical work of Michel Foucault (the credits include ‘Foucault Authority – Simon During’), Ghosts… Of the Civil Dead is a searing critique of the so-called ‘new generation’ prison system developed in the United States and recently introduced in Australia. Director John Hillcoat and producer Evan English conducted extensive research for the film, including spending time at the National Institute of Corrections, a think tank in Colorado, and visiting numerous institutions like the ‘new Alcatraz’ at Marion Illinois and other maximum security prisons across the United States. Using a mix of professionals and non-actors, including former prisoners and prison guards, the ‘story’ was workshopped during a lengthy rehearsal period with many actual events and experiences of participants incorporated into the film. The end result deliberately blurs the line between American and Australian prison experience to make the political point that what had happened in the US – from where many events and characters, and much of the architecture and design of the prison are drawn – was beginning to happen in Australia. The film emphasises the vicious cycle of institutionalisation, and highlights the role state authorities play in manufacturing, provoking and manipulating violence and fear both in prisons and in wider society as a means to augment policing and surveillance of the population, to oppress the working classes, and to maintain the political status quo...

Cosmoscapes and the promotion of uncosmopolitan values

Globality generates increasingly diffuse networks of human and non-human innovators, carriers and icons of exotic, polyethnic cosmopolitan difference; and this diffusion is increasingly hard to ignore or police (Latour 1993). In fact, such global networks of material-symbolic exchange can frequently have the unintended consequence of promoting status systems and cultural relationships founded on uncosmopolitan values such as cultural appropriation and status-based social exclusion. Moreover, this materialsymbolic engagement with cosmopolitan difference could also be rather mundane, engaged in routinely without any great reflexive consciousness or capacity to destabilise current relations of cultural power, or interpreted unproblematically as just one component of a person’s social environment. Indeed, Beck’s (2006) argument is that cosmopolitanism, in an age of global risk, is being forced upon us unwillingly, so there should be no surprise if it is a bitter pill for some to swallow. Within these emergent cosmopolitan networks, which we call ‘cosmoscapes’, there is no certainty about the development of ethical or behavioural stances consistent with claims foundational to the current literature on cosmopolitanism. Reviewing historical and contemporary studies of globality and its dynamic generative capacity, this paper considers such literatures in the context of studies of cultural consumption and social status. When one positions these diverse bodies of literature against one another, it becomes clear that the possibility of widespread cosmopolitan cultural formations is largely unpromising.

Critical reflection on the SIA’s professional project and the body of knowledge

Over the last few years the Safety Institute of Australia (SIA) has developed and implemented a number of strategies to gain professional status for the ‘generalist occupational health and safety professional’. Two of the most significant developments have been the publication of the ‘Core Body of Knowledge for the Generalist OHS Professional.’ and the accreditation of university OHS courses. Despite a considerable amount of work aimed at gaining professional status there has not been any public debate or reflection about how the professionalisation project may impact on OHS and how the project is being conducted. Professionalisation has been vigorously promoted as a sign of maturity for the SIA and which will provide unmitigated benefits for workplace health and safety. The aim of this paper is to critically reflect on the processes of professionalisation (the professional project) and discuss some of the ways in which this project may shape the field of occupational health and safety. The implications for the role of universities will also be discussed.

Fluorescent Fields: electric lighting and the rationalization of the modern corporate workplace

This study investigates the implications of the introduction of electric lighting systems, building technologies, and theories of worker efficiency on the deep spatial and environmental transformations that occurred within the corporate workplace during the twentieth century. Examining the shift from daylighting strategies to largely artificially lit workplace environments, this paper argues that electric lighting significantly contributed to the architectural rationalization of both office work and the modern office environment. Contesting the historical and critical marginalization of lighting within the discourse of the modern built environment, this study calls for a reassessment of the role of artificial lighting in the development of the modern corporate workplace. Keywords: daylighting, fluorescent lighting, rationalization, workplace design

Phylogenetic placement of the sugarcane orange rust pathogen Puccinia kuehnii in a historical and regional context

Sugarcane orange rust, caused by Puccinia kuehnii, was once considered a minor disease in the Australian sugar industry. However, in 2000 a new race of the pathogen devastated the high-performing sugarcane cultivar Q124, and caused the industry Aus$150–210 million in yield losses. At the time of the epidemic, very little was known about the genetic and pathogenic diversity of the fungus in Australia and neighbouring sugar industries. DNA sequence data from three rDNA regions were used to determine the genetic relationships between isolates within two P. kuehnii collections. The first collection comprised only recent Australian field isolates and limited sequence variation was detected within this population. In the second study, Australian isolates were compared with isolates from Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, China and historical herbarium collections. Greater sequence variation was detected in this collection and phylogenetic analyses grouped the isolates into three clades. All isolates from commercial cane fields clustered together including the recent Australianfield isolates and the Australian historical isolate from 1898.The other two clades included rust isolates from wild and garden canes in Indonesia and PNG. These rusts appeared morphologically similar to P. kuehnii and could potentially pose a quarantine threat to the Australian sugar industry. The results have revealed greater diversity in sugarcane rusts than previously thought.

Hypercapitalism: language, new media and social perceptions of value

Using examples from contemporary policy and business discourses, and exemplary historical texts dealing with the notion of value, I put forward an argument as to why a critical scholarship that draws on media history, language analysis, philosophy and political economy is necessary to understand the dynamics of what is being called 'the global knowledge economy'. I argue that the social changes associated with new modes of value determination are closely associated with new media forms.

Historical and Personal Perspectives on the Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989: address to 20th anniversary forums.

The story of the fall of the Berlin Wall was an aspect of the “imagination gap” that we had to wrestle with as journalists covering the collapse of the Eastern Bloc in Europe. It was scarcely possible to believe what you found yourself reporting, and that work became a two-track process. On one hand a mass social movement was dictating the pace and direction of events; on the other, the institutional business of politics as usual, to provide a framework for all the change that was happening, had to be managed – and reported on. In later analyseds we could see, that crisis in the Soviet Union led to the crisis over the Berlin Wall; and from the fall of the Wall, came Germany’s reunification, and with that also, formation of the European Union as it is today. The government of the Federal Republic of Germany convinced its neighbours that a reunited Germany, within an expanded EU, would be a very acceptable “European Germany” -- not the leader of a “German Europe”. It committed itself financially, supporting the new Euro currency. The former communist states of Eastern Europe demanded to join and expand the EU; in order to remove themselves from the Soviet Union, enjoy human rights, and share in Western prosperity. So today, following on from the events of 1989, the European Union is an amalgam of 27 member countries, with close to 500 million citizens and accounting for 30 % of world Gross National Product.

Queensland Aborigines, multiple realities and the social sources of suffering: Psychiatry and moral regions of being (Part 1)

This two part paper considers the experience of a range of magico-religious experiences (such as visions and voices) and spirit beliefs in a rural Aboriginal town. The papers challenge the tendency of institutionalised psychiatry to medicalise the experiences and critiques the way in which its individualistic practice is intensified in the face of an incomprehensible Aboriginal „other‟ to become part of the power imbalance that characterises the relationship between Indigenous and white domains. The work reveals the internal differentiation and politics of the Aboriginal domain, as the meanings of these experiences and actions are contested and negotiated by the residents and in so doing they decentre the concerns of the white domain and attempt to control their relationship with it. Thus the plausibility structure that sustains these multiple realities reflects both accommodation and resistance to the material and historical conditions imposed and enacted by mainstream society on the residents, and to current socio- political realities. I conclude that the residents‟ narratives chart the grounds of moral adjudication as the experiences were rarely conceptualised by local people as signs of individual pathology but as reflections of social reality. Psychiatric drug therapy and the behaviourist assumptions underlying its practice posit atomised individuals as the appropriate site of intervention as against the multiple realities revealed by the phenomenology of the experiences. The papers thus call into question Australian mainstream „commonsense‟ that circulates about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people which justifies representations of them as sickly outcasts in Australian society.

The geometric modelling of social frames and contexts

How do humans respond to their social context? This question is becoming increasingly urgent in a society where democracy requires that the citizens of a country help to decide upon its policy directions, and yet those citizens frequently have very little knowledge of the complex issues that these policies seek to address. Frequently, we find that humans make their decisions more with reference to their social setting, than to the arguments of scientists, academics, and policy makers. It is broadly anticipated that the agent based modelling (ABM) of human behaviour will make it possible to treat such social effects, but we take the position here that a more sophisticated treatment of context will be required in many such models. While notions such as historical context (where the past history of an agent might affect its later actions) and situational context (where the agent will choose a different action in a different situation) abound in ABM scenarios, we will discuss a case of a potentially changing context, where social effects can have a strong influence upon the perceptions of a group of subjects. In particular, we shall discuss a recently reported case where a biased worm in an election debate led to significant distortions in the reports given by participants as to who won the debate (Davis et al 2011). Thus, participants in a different social context drew different conclusions about the perceived winner of the same debate, with associated significant differences among the two groups as to who they would vote for in the coming election. We extend this example to the problem of modelling the likely electoral responses of agents in the context of the climate change debate, and discuss the notion of interference between related questions that might be asked of an agent in a social simulation that was intended to simulate their likely responses. A modelling technology which could account for such strong social contextual effects would benefit regulatory bodies which need to navigate between multiple interests and concerns, and we shall present one viable avenue for constructing such a technology. A geometric approach will be presented, where the internal state of an agent is represented in a vector space, and their social context is naturally modelled as a set of basis states that are chosen with reference to the problem space.

The economics of awards, status and performance: the John Bates Clark Medal and the Fellowship of the Econometric Society

This thesis investigates whether receiving an important award in academia raises recipients’ subsequent research productivity and status compared to a synthetic control group of non-recipient scholars with similar previous research performance. It examines the case of being awarded the John Bates Clark Medal and becoming a Fellow of the Econometric Society finding evidence of positive incentive and status effects that raise both productivity and citation levels.

Communication and the casualisation of nursing : a critical ethnography

The contemporary working environment is being rapidly reshaped by technological, industrial and political forces. Increased global competitiveness and an emphasis on productivity have led to the appearance of alternative methods of employment, such as part-time, casual and itinerant work, allowing greater flexibility. This allows for the development of a core permanent staff and the simultaneous utilisation of casual staff according to business needs. Flexible workers across industries are generally referred to as the non-standard workforce and full-time permanent workers as the standard workforce. Even though labour flexibility favours the employer, increased opportunity for flexible work has been embraced by women for many reasons, including the gender struggle for greater economic independence and social equality. Consequently, the largely female nursing industry, both nationally and internationally, has been caught up in this wave of change. This ageing workforce has been at the forefront of the push for flexibility with recent figures showing almost half the nursing workforce is employed in non-standard capacity. In part, this has allowed women to fulfil caring roles outside their work, to ease off nearing retirement and to supplement the family income. More significantly, however, flexibility has developed as an economic management initiative, as a strategy for cost constraint. The result has been the development of a dual workforce and as suggested by Pocock, Buchanan and Campbell (2004), associated deep-seated resentment and the marginalisation of part-time and casual workers by their full-time colleagues and managers. Additionally, as nursing currently faces serious recruitment and retention problems there is urgent need to understand the factors which are underlying present discontent in the nursing profession. There is an identified gap in nursing knowledge surrounding the issues relating to recruitment and retention. Communication involves speaking, listening, reading and writing and is an interactive process which is central to the lives of humans. Workplace communication refers to human interaction, information technology, and multimedia and print. It is the means to relationship building between workers, management, and their external environment and is critical to organisational effectiveness. Communication and language are integral to nursing performance (Hall, 2005), in twenty-four hour service however increasing fragmentation due to part-time and casual work in the nursing industry means that effective communication management has become increasingly difficult. More broadly it is known that disruption to communication systems impacts negatively on consumer outcomes. Because of this gap in understanding how nurses view their contemporary nursing world, an interpretative ethnographic study which progressed to a critical ethnographic study, based on the conceptual framework of constructionism and interpretativism was used. The study site was a division within an acute health care facility, and the relationship between increasing casualisation of the nursing workforce and the experiences of communication of standard and non-standard nurses was explored. For this study, full-time standard nurses were those employed to work in a specific unit for forty hours per week. Non-standard nurses were those employed part-time in specific units or those nurses employed to work as relief pool nurses for shift short falls where needed. Nurses employed by external agencies, but required to fill in for shifts at the facility were excluded from this research. This study involved an analysis of observational, interview and focus group data of standard and non-standard nurses within this facility. Three analytical findings - the organisation of nursing work; constructing the casual nurse as other; and the function of space, situate communication within a broader discussion about non-standard work and organisational culture. The study results suggest that a significant culture of marginalisation exists for nurses who work in a non-standard capacity and that this affects communication for nurses and has implications for the quality of patient care. The discussion draws on the seven elements of marginalisation described by Hall, Stephen and Melius (1994). The arguments propose that these elements underpin a culture which supports remnants of the historically gendered stereotype "the good nurse" and these cultural values contribute to practices and behaviour which marginalise all nurses, particularly those who work less than full-time. Gender inequality is argued to be at the heart of marginalising practices because of long standing subordination of nurses by the powerful medical profession, paralleling historical subordination of women in society. This has denied nurses adequate representation and voice in decision making. The new knowledge emanating from this study extends current knowledge of factors surrounding recruitment and retention and as such contributes to an understanding of the current and complex nursing environment.

New media and the transformation of higher education

One set of public institutions that has seen growing discussion about the transformative impact of new media technologies has been universities. The higher education sector, historically one of the more venerable and stable areas of public life, is now the subject of almost continuous speculation about whether it can continue in its current form during the 21st century. Digital media technologies are often seen as being at the forefront of such changes. It has been widely noted that moves towards a knowledge economy generates ‘skills-biased technological change’, that places a premium upon higher education qualifications, and that this earnings gap remains despite the continuing increase in the number of university graduates. As the demand for higher education continues to grow worldwide, there are new discussions about whether technologically-mediated education through new forms such as Massively Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are broadening access to quality learning, or severing the vital connection between teacher and student seen as integral to the learning process. This paper critically appraises such debates in the context of early 21st century higher education. It will discuss ten drivers of change in higher education, many of which are related to themes discussed elsewhere in this book, such as the impact of social media, globalization, and a knowledge economy. It will also consider the issues raised in navigating such developments from the perspective of the ‘Five P’s’: practical issues; personal issues; pedagogical issues; policy issues; and philosophical issues. It also includes a critical evaluation of MOOCs from the point of view of their educational qualities. It will conclude with the observation that while universities will continue to play a significant – and perhaps growing – role in the economy, society and culture, the issues raised about what Clayton Christensen and Henry Eyring term the ‘disruptive university’ (Christensen and Eyring 2011) are nonetheless pressing ones, and that cost and policy pressures in particular are likely to generate significant institutional transformations in higher education worldwide.