Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

A Best Practice Process for Fleet Safety Training

This paper outlines a process for fleet safety training based on research and management development programmes undertaken at the University of Huddersfield in the UK (www.hud.ac.uk/sas/trans/transnews.htm) and CARRS-Q in Australia (www.carrsq.qut.edu.au/staff/Murray.jsp) over the past 10 years.

Occupant health and productivity : an Australian perspective

The issue of whether improved building services such as air quality, provision of daylight, thermal comfort etc, have a positive impact on the health and productivity of building occupants is still an open question. There is significant anecdotal evidence supporting the notion that health and productivity of building occupants can be improved by improving the quality of the indoor environment, but there are actually few published quantitative studies to substantiate this contention. This paper reports on a comprehensive review of the worldwide literature which relates health of building occupants with the different aspects of the indoor environment which are believed to impact of these issues, with a particular focus on studies in Australia, The paper analyses the existing research and identifies the key deficiencies in our existing understanding of this problem. The key focus of this research is office and school buildings, but the scope of the literature surveyed includes all commercial buildings, including industrial buildings. There is a notable absence of detailed studies on this link in Australian buildings, although there are studies on thermal comfort, and a number of studies on indoor air quality in Australia, which do not make the connection to health and productivity. Many international studies have focused on improved lighting, and in particular the provision of daylight in buildings, but again there are few studies in Australia which focus in this area.

Passive solar systems for heating, daylighting and ventilation for rooms without an equator-facing facade

Spaces without northerly orientations have an impact on the ‘energy behaviour’ of a building. This paper outlines possible energy savings and better performance achieved by different zenithal solar passive strategies (skylights, roof monitors and clerestory roof windows) and element arrangements across the roof in zones of cold to temperate climates typical of the central and central-southern Argentina. Analyses were undertaken considering daylighting, thermal and ventilation performances of the different strategies. The results indicate that heating,ventilation and lighting loads in spaces without an equator-facing facade can be significantly reduced by implementing solar passive strategies. In the thermal aspect, the solar saving fraction reached for the different strategies were averaged 43.16% for clerestories, 41.4% for roof monitors and 38.86% for skylights for a glass area of 9% to the floor area. The results also indicate average illuminance levels above 500 lux for the different clerestory and monitor arrangements, uniformity ratios of 0.66–0.82 for the most distributed arrangements and day-lighting factors between 11.78 and 20.30% for clear sky conditions, depending on the strategy. In addition, minimum air changes rates of 4 were reached for the most extreme conditions.

Improving daylighting performance of mirrored light pipes

This paper assesses and compares the performances of two daylight collection strategies, one passive and one active, for large-scale mirrored light pipes (MLP) illuminating deep plan buildings. Both strategies use laser cut panels (LCP) as the main component of the collection system. The passive system comprises LCPs in pyramid form, whereas the active system uses a tiled LCP on a simple rotation mechanism that rotates 360° in 24 hours. Performance is assessed using scale model testing under sunny sky conditions and mathematical modelling. Results show average illuminance levels for the pyramid LCP ranging from 50 to 250 lux and 150 to 200 lux for the rotating LCPs. Both systems improve the performance of a MLP. The pyramid LCP increases the performance of a MLP by 2.5 times and the rotating LCP by 5 times, when compared to an open pipe particularly for low sun elevation angles.

Monitoring the Australian Blogosphere through the 2007 Australian Federal Election

This paper examines the observable patterns of content creation by Australian political bloggers dur‐ing the 2007 election and its aftermath, thereby providing insight into the level and nature of activity in the Australian political blogosphere during that time. The performance indicators which are identi‐fied through this process enable us to target for further in‐depth research, to be reported in subse‐quent papers, those individual blogs and blog clusters showing especially high or unusual activity as compared to the overall baseline. This research forms the first stage in a larger project to investigate the shape and internal dynamics of the Australian political blogosphere. In this first stage, we tracked the activities of some 230 political blogs and related Websites in Australia from 2 November 2007 (the final month of the federal election campaign, with the election itself taking place on 24 Novem‐ber) to 24 January 2008. We harvested more than 65,000 articles for this study.

Mapping the Australian political blogosphere

Network crawling and visualisation tools and other datamining systems are now advanced enough to provide significant new impulses to the study of cultural activity on the Web. A growing range of studies focus on communicative processes in the blogosphere – including for example Adamic & Glance’s 2005 map of political allegiances during the 2004 U.S. presidential election and Kelly & Etling’s 2008 study of blogging practices in Iran. There remain a number of significant shortcomings in the application of such tools and methodologies to the study of blogging; these relate both to how the content of blogs is analysed, and to how the network maps resulting from such studies are understood. Our project highlights and addresses such shortcomings.

Assessment of Speech Dialog Systems using Multi-Modal Cognitive Load Analysis and Driving Performance Metrics

In this paper, cognitive load analysis via acoustic- and CAN-Bus-based driver performance metrics is employed to assess two different commercial speech dialog systems (SDS) during in-vehicle use. Several metrics are proposed to measure increases in stress, distraction and cognitive load and we compare these measures with statistical analysis of the speech recognition component of each SDS. It is found that care must be taken when designing an SDS as it may increase cognitive load which can be observed through increased speech response delay (SRD), changes in speech production due to negative emotion towards the SDS, and decreased driving performance on lateral control tasks. From this study, guidelines are presented for designing systems which are to be used in vehicular environments.

Entrepreneurship and family firms : growth and survival

Family businesses dominate in a majority of economies (Astrachan and Shanker, 2003; Chrisman, Chua, and Sharma, 2005; Morck and Yeung, 2004). As entrepreneurial activities have been shown to be central to economic growth it is essential that family businesses, irrespective of ownership patterns, not only survive but also grow thus growing the economy overall. While a great deal is known about entrepreneurial activities and a body of knowledge is being developed in relation to entrepreneurial processes in family firms, more needs to be understood in relation to the dynamics of entrepreneurial activities at the individual family firm level. One area of particular interest is the dynamics within the business and the family and how these dynamics impact upon entrepreneurial activities. Specifically how relationships between and among family members engaged in the business can interact with professional non-family member senior executives. The senior executives can actively use their positions in such ways that initiatives suggested by family members are less successful than they might be. This paper addresses how ‘family’ aspects of a business can assist or impede the entrepreneurial activities of individuals. It takes into account some of the unique features of family businesses – such as the importance of ‘familiness’ as a competitive advantage; the direct links between ownership and control of a business and the recognition (often implicit) that individuals in families do make a difference to how the business functions (Habbershon and Williams, 1999, Sharma, 2004; and Tokarczyk, Hansen Green, and Down, 2007). This emphasis on individuals in families fits well with the idea of entrepreneur as individual, as expressed by Schumpeter (1934), Baumol et al (2007). The theoretical approach that adopted to explore the dynamics of processes occurring within family firms is structuration theory combined with a theory of embeddeness (Dacin, Ventresca and Beal, 1999; Giddens, 1979, 1984, Jack and Anderson, 2002; and Sarason, Dean and Dillard, 2006).

Daylighting design in the architectural design studio

This paper discusses two different approaches to teaching design and their modes of delivery and reflects upon their successes and failures. Two small groups of third year design students have been given projects focussing on incorporation of daylighting to architectural design in studios having different design themes. In association with the curriculum, the themes were Digital Tools and Sustainability. Although both studios had the topic of daylighting, the aim and methodology used were different. Digital Tool studio’s aim was to teach how to design daylighting by using a digital tool, where as, Sustainability studio aimed at using scale modelling as a tool to learn about daylighting and integrating it into design. Positive results for providing student learning success within the University context were the students’ chance to learn and practice some new skills –using a new tool for designing; integration of the tutors’ extensive research expertise to their teaching practice; and the students’ construction of their own understanding of knowledge in a student-centred educational environment. This environment created a very positive attitude in the form of exchanging ideas and collaboration among the students of Digital Tools students at the discussion forum. Sustainability group students were enthusiastic about designing and testing various proposals. Problems that both studios experienced were mainly related to timing. Synchronizing with other groups of their studios and learning of a new skill on top of an already complicated process of design learning were the setbacks.

The self-Googling phenomenon : investigating the performance of personalized information resources

This paper investigates self–Googling through the monitoring of search engine activities of users and adds to the few quantitative studies on this topic already in existence. We explore this phenomenon by answering the following questions: To what extent is the self–Googling visible in the usage of search engines; is any significant difference measurable between queries related to self–Googling and generic search queries; to what extent do self–Googling search requests match the selected personalised Web pages? To address these questions we explore the theory of narcissism in order to help define self–Googling and present the results from a 14–month online experiment using Google search engine usage data.

Impact of cognitive load and frustration on drivers’ speech [Abstract]

Secondary tasks such as cell phone calls or interaction with automated speech dialog systems (SDSs) increase the driver’s cognitive load as well as the probability of driving errors. This study analyzes speech production variations due to cognitive load and emotional state of drivers in real driving conditions. Speech samples were acquired from 24 female and 17 male subjects (approximately 8.5 h of data) while talking to a co-driver and communicating with two automated call centers, with emotional states (neutral, negative) and the number of necessary SDS query repetitions also labeled. A consistent shift in a number of speech production parameters (pitch, first format center frequency, spectral center of gravity, spectral energy spread, and duration of voiced segments) was observed when comparing SDS interaction against co-driver interaction; further increases were observed when considering negative emotion segments and the number of requested SDS query repetitions. A mel frequency cepstral coefficient based Gaussian mixture classifier trained on 10 male and 10 female sessions provided 91% accuracy in the open test set task of distinguishing co-driver interactions from SDS interactions, suggesting—together with the acoustic analysis—that it is possible to monitor the level of driver distraction directly from their speech.