Rejoinder to James Hamilton

Hamilton (2001) makes a number of comments on our paper (Harding and Pagan, 2002b). The objectives of this rejoinder are, firstly, to note the areas in which we agree; secondly, to define with greater clarity the areas in which we disagree; and, thirdly, to point to other papers, including a longer version of this response, where we have dealt with some of the issues that he raises. The core of our debate with him is whether one should use an algorithm with a specified set of rules for determining the turning points in economic activity or whether one should use a parametric model that features latent states. Hamilton begins his criticism by stating that there is a philosophical distinction between the two methods for dating cycles and concludes that the method we use “leaves vague and intuitive exactly what this algorithm is intended to measure”. Nothing is further from the truth. When seeking ways to decide on whether a turning point has occurred it is always useful to ask the question, what is a recession? Common usage suggests that it is a decline in the level of economic activity that lasts for some time. For this reason it has become standard to describe a recession as a decline in GDP that lasts for more than two quarters. Finding periods in which quarterly GDP declined for two periods is exactly what our approach does. What is vague about this?

An interview with sound artist Guy Webster by Jillian Hamilton and Jeremy Yuille

Guy Webster is a sound artist who has been featured in numerous festivals, galleries, conferences and theatres in Australia, Japan, UK and Europe. As part of the Transmute Collective he developed the immersive soundscape of Intimate Transactions. On 2nd November, 2005 Jilliann Hamilton and Jeremy Yuille met with Guy Webster to discuss his approach to immersion in soundsapes.

Evaluation of the Hamilton Youth Court Pilot 2003-2005

Pilot Youth Courts were introduced at Hamilton Sheriff Court in June 2003 and at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Although introduced as one of a number of measures aimed at responding more effectively to youth crime (including young people dealt with through the Children’s Hearings System), the Youth Courts were intended for young people who would otherwise have been dealt with in the adult Sheriff Summary Court. The objectives of the pilot Youth Courts were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. Evaluation of the Hamilton and Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court pilots suggested that they had been successful in meeting the objectives set for them by the Youth Court Feasibility Group. Both were tightly run courts that dealt with a heavy volume of business. The particular strengths of the Youth Court model over previous arrangements included the fast-tracking of young people to and through the court, the reduction in trials, the availability of a wider range of resources and services for young people and ongoing judicial review. The successful operation of the pilot Youth Courts was dependent upon effective teamwork among the relevant agencies and professionals concerned. Good information sharing, liaison and communication appeared to exist across agencies and the procedures that were in place to facilitate the sharing of information seemed to be working well. This was also facilitated by the presence of dedicated staff within agencies, resulting in clear channels of communication, and in the opportunity provided by the multi-agency Implementation Groups to identify and address operational issues on an ongoing basis. However, whether Youth Courts are required in Scotland or whether procedural improvement were possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Courts should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Courts were intended. This suggested the need for further discussion of Youth Court targeting and its potential consequences among the various agencies concerned.

Review: "Transfigured Stages : Major Practitioners and Theatre Aesthetics in Australia" by Margaret Hamilton

In Transfigured Stages: Major Practitioners and Theatre Aesthetics in Australia, Margaret Hamilton traces the emergence of a postdramatic performance aesthetic in Australian theatre in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s through what she characterizes as an ‘analysis’ (p. 15) or ‘critique’ (p. 16)of a series of pivotal productions. For Hamilton, the transfigured aesthetic in the spotlight here is one typified by a focus on memory, imagination, desire, fear or disgust as facets of the human condition; by a visual, televisual or interactive dramaturgy; and, most critically, by a metatheatrical tendency to make tensions in the theatre-making process part and parcel of the tensions in the performance itself (pp.18–20)...

Eruption centres of the Hamilton area of the Newer Volcanics Province, Victoria, Australia: Pinpointing volcanoes from a multifaceted approach to landform mapping

Volcanic eruption centres of the mostly 4.5 Ma-5000 BP Newer Volcanics Province in the Hamilton area of southeastern Australia were examined in detail using a multifaceted approach, including ground truthing and analysis of ArcGIS Total Magnetic Intensity and seamless geology data, NASA Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation models and Google Earth satellite image interpretation. Sixteen eruption centres were recognised in the Hamilton area, including three previously unrecorded volcanoes-one of which, the Cas Maar, constitutes the northernmost maar-cone volcanic complex in the Western Plains subprovince. Seven previously allocated eruption centres were placed into question based on field and laboratory observations. Three phases of volcanic activity have been suggested by other authors and are interpreted to correlate with ages of >4 Ma, ca 2 Ma and <0.5 Ma, which may be further subdivided based on preservation of outcrop. Geochemical compositions of the dominantly basaltic products become increasingly alkaline and enriched in incompatible elements from Phases 1 to 2, with Phase 3 eruptions both covering the entire geochemical range and extending into increasingly enriched compositions. This research highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach to landform mapping and demonstrates that additional volcanic centres may yet be discovered in the Newer Volcanics Province

Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Attitudes towards American brands and brand America

A study of 556 students at colleges and universities in Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore explored the relationship between attitude towards the United States and brand attitudes and preferences. Singaporean student attitudes towards both the US Government and US people were higher than were those of the Australian and Hong Kong students. Coke, Nike and McDonald's were among both the most-liked and disliked US brands among the international students, a finding suggesting that brands may possess both a 'lovemark' status, as described in the literature, and its opposite — 'loathemark' status — within the same demographic group. US brand preference scores did not offer support for the belief that international consumers 'vote with their pocketbooks' by refusing to purchase US brands if they have a negative attitude towards the United States. Among Hong Kong and Singaporean students, favourable attitudes towards the purchase of US brands was found to be positively related to favourability towards the US Government.

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Losing their marbles : syntax-free programming for assessing problem-solving skills

Novice programmers have difficulty developing an algorithmic solution while simultaneously obeying the syntactic constraints of the target programming language. To see how students fare in algorithmic problem solving when not burdened by syntax, we conducted an experiment in which a large class of beginning programmers were required to write a solution to a computational problem in structured English, as if instructing a child, without reference to program code at all. The students produced an unexpectedly wide range of correct, and attempted, solutions, some of which had not occurred to their teachers. We also found that many common programming errors were evident in the natural language algorithms, including failure to ensure loop termination, hardwiring of solutions, failure to properly initialise the computation, and use of unnecessary temporary variables, suggesting that these mistakes are caused by inexperience at thinking algorithmically, rather than difficulties in expressing solutions as program code.

Contrasting views and experiences of health professionals on the management of comorbid substance misuse and mental disorders

Objectives: To determine opinions and experiences of health professionals concerning the management of people with comorbid substance misuse and mental health disorders. Method: We conducted a survey of staff from mental health services and alcohol and drug services across Queensland. Survey items on problems and potential solutions had been generated by focus groups. Results: We analysed responses from 112 staff of alcohol and drug services and 380 mental health staff, representing a return of 79% and 42% respectively of the distributed surveys. One or more issues presented a substantial clinical management problem for 98% of respondents. Needs for increased facilities or services for dual disorder clients figured prominently. These included accommodation or respite care, work and rehabilitation programs, and support groups and resource materials for families. Needs for adolescent dual diagnosis services and after-hours alcohol and drug consultations were also reported. Each of these issues raised substantial problems for over 70% of staff. Another set of problems involved coordination of client care across mental health and alcohol and drug services, including disputes over duty of care. Difficulties with intersectoral liaison were more pronounced for alcohol and drug staff than for mental health. A majority of survey respondents identified 13 solutions as practical. These included routine screening for dual diagnosis at intake, and a range of proposals for closer intersectoral communication such as exchanging client information, developing shared treatment plans, conducting joint case conferences and offering consultation facilities. Conclusions: A wide range of problems for the management of comorbid disorders were identified. While solution of some problems will require resource allocation, many may be addressed by closer liaison between existing services.

Explaining International new venture internationalisation: an innovation adoption model

The increasing prevalence of International New Ventures (INVs) during the past twenty years has been highlighted by numerous studies (Knight and Cavusgil, 1996, Moen, 2002). International New Ventures are firms, typically small to medium enterprises, that internationalise within six years of inception (Oviatt and McDougall, 1997). To date there has been no general consensus within the literature on a theoretical framework of internationalisation to explain the internationalisation process of INVs (Madsen and Servais, 1997). However, some researchers have suggested that the innovation diffusion model may provide a suitable theoretical framework (Chetty & Hamilton, 1996, Fan & Phan, 2007).The proposed model was based on the existing and well-established innovation diffusion theories drawn from consumer behaviour and internationalisation literature to explain the internationalisation process of INVs (Lim, Sharkey, and Kim, 1991, Reid, 1981, Robertson, 1971, Rogers, 1962, Wickramasekera and Oczkowski, 2006). The results of this analysis indicated that the synthesied model of export adoption was effective in explaining the internationalisation process of INVs within the Queensland Food and Beverage Industry. Significantly the results of the analysis also indicated that features of the original I-models developed in the consumer behaviour literature, that had limited examination within the internationalisation literature were confirmed. This includes the ability of firms, or specifically decision-makers, to skip stages based om previous experience.