Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Dark-energy constraints and correlations with systematics from CFHTLS weak lensing, SNLS supernovae Ia and WMAP5

Aims We combine measurements of weak gravitational lensing from the CFHTLS-Wide survey, supernovae Ia from CFHT SNLS and CMB anisotropies from WMAP5 to obtain joint constraints on cosmological parameters, in particular, the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter w. We assess the influence of systematics in the data on the results and look for possible correlations with cosmological parameters. Methods We implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample the parameter space of a flat CDM model with a dark-energy component of constant w. Systematics in the data are parametrised and included in the analysis. We determine the influence of photometric calibration of SNIa data on cosmological results by calculating the response of the distance modulus to photometric zero-point variations. The weak lensing data set is tested for anomalous field-to-field variations and a systematic shape measurement bias for high-redshift galaxies. Results Ignoring photometric uncertainties for SNLS biases cosmological parameters by at most 20% of the statistical errors, using supernovae alone; the parameter uncertainties are underestimated by 10%. The weak-lensing field-to-field variance between 1 deg2-MegaCam pointings is 5-15% higher than predicted from N-body simulations. We find no bias in the lensing signal at high redshift, within the framework of a simple model, and marginalising over cosmological parameters. Assuming a systematic underestimation of the lensing signal, the normalisation increases by up to 8%. Combining all three probes we obtain -0.10 < 1 + w < 0.06 at 68% confidence ( -0.18 < 1 + w < 0.12 at 95%), including systematic errors. Our results are therefore consistent with the cosmological constant . Systematics in the data increase the error bars by up to 35%; the best-fit values change by less than 0.15.

The'cave' mineral oxammite: a high resolution thermogravimetry and Raman spectroscopic study

The thermal decomposition of natural ammonium oxalate known as oxammite has been studied using a combination of high resolution thermogravimetry coupled to an evolved gas mass spectrometer and Raman spectroscopy coupled to a thermal stage. Three mass loss steps were found at 57, 175 and 188°C attributed to dehydration, ammonia evolution and carbon dioxide evolution respectively. Raman spectroscopy shows two bands at 3235 and 3030 cm-1 attributed to the OH stretching vibrations and three bands at 2995, 2900 and 2879 cm-1, attributed to the NH vibrational modes. The thermal degradation of oxammite may be followed by the loss of intensity of these bands. No intensity remains in the OH stretching bands at 100°C and the NH stretching bands show no intensity at 200°C. Multiple CO symmetric stretching bands are observed at 1473, 1454, 1447 and 1431cm-1, suggesting that the mineral oxammite is composed of a mixture of chemicals including ammonium oxalate dihydrate, ammonium oxalate monohydrate and anhydrous ammonium oxalate.

Micropolar flow in a porous channel with high mass transfer

Two dimensional flow of a micropolar fluid in a porous channel is investigated. The flow is driven by suction or injection at the channel walls, and the micropolar model due to Eringen is used to describe the working fluid. An extension of Berman's similarity transform is used to reduce the governing equations to a set of non-linear coupled ordinary differential equations. The latter are solved for large mass transfer via a perturbation analysis where the inverse of the cross-flow Reynolds number is used as the perturbing parameter. Complementary numerical solutions for strong injection are also obtained using a quasilinearisation scheme, and good agreement is observed between the solutions obtained from the perturbation analysis and the computations.

The effect of mechanochemical activation upon the intercalation of a high-defect kaolinite with formamide

The effect of mechanochemical activation upon the intercalation of formamide into a high-defect kaolinite has been studied using a combination of X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis, and DRIFT spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction shows that the intensity of the d(001) spacing decreases with grinding time and that the intercalated high-defect kaolinite expands to 10.2 A. The intensity of the peak of the expanded phase of the formamide-intercalated kaolinite decreases with grinding time. Thermal analysis reveals that the evolution temperature of the adsorbed formamide and loss of the inserting molecule increases with increased grinding time. The temperature of the dehydroxylation of the formamide-intercalated high-defect kaolinite decreases from 495 to 470oC with mechanochemical activation. Changes in the surface structure of the mechanochemically activated formamide-intercalated high-defect kaolinite were followed by DRIFT spectroscopy. Fundamentally the intensity of the high-defect kaolinite hydroxyl stretching bands decreases exponentially with grinding time and simultaneously the intensity of the bands attributed to the OH stretching vibrations of water increased. It is proposed that the mechanochemical activation of the high-defect kaolinite caused the conversion of the hydroxyls to water which coordinates the kaolinite surface. Significant changes in the infrared bands assigned to the hydroxyl deformation and amide stretching and bending modes were observed. The intensity decrease of these bands was exponentially related to the grinding time. The position of the amide C&unknown;O vibrational mode was found to be sensitive to grinding time. The effect of mechanochemical activation of the high-defect kaolinite reduces the capacity of the kaolinite to be intercalated with formamide.