The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Numerical simulations of particle deposition in metal foam heat exchangers

Australia is a high-potential country for geothermal power with reserves currently estimated in the tens of millions of petajoules, enough to power the nation for at least 1000 years at current usage. However, these resources are mainly located in isolated arid regions where water is scarce. Therefore, wet cooling systems for geothermal plants in Australia are the least attractive solution and thus air-cooled heat exchangers are preferred. In order to increase the efficiency of such heat exchangers, metal foams have been used. One issue raised by this solution is the fouling caused by dust deposition. In this case, the heat transfer characteristics of the metal foam heat exchanger can dramatically deteriorate. Exploring the particle deposition property in the metal foam exchanger becomes crucial. This paper is a numerical investigation aimed to address this issue. Two dimensional (2D) numerical simulations of a standard one-row tube bundle wrapped with metal foam in cross-flow are performed and highlight preferential particle deposition areas.

Numerical simulations of particle deposition in metal foam heat exchangers

Australia is a high potential country for geothermal power with reserves currently estimated in the tens of millions of petajoules, enough to power the nation for at least 1000 years at current usage.However, these resources are mainly located in isolated arid regions where water is scarce. Therefore, wet cooling systems for geothermal plants in Australia are the least attractive solution and thus air-cooled heat exchangers are preferred. In order to increase the efficiency of such heat exchangers, metal foams have been used. One issue raised by this solution is the fouling caused by dust deposition. In this case, the heat transfer characteristics of the metal foam heat exchanger can dramatically deteriorate. Exploring the particle deposition property in the metal foam exchanger becomes crucial. This paper is a numerical investigation aimed to address this issue. Two-dimensional(2D numerical simulations of a standard one-row tube bundle wrapped with metal foam in cross-flow are performed and highlight preferential particle deposition areas.

Radiative and total heat transfer measurements to a Titan Explorer model

Radiative and total heat transfer at the flow stagnation point of a 1:40.8 binary scaled model of the Titan Explorer vehicle were measured in the X3 expansion tube. Results from the current study illustrated that with the addition of CH4 into a N2 test gas radiative heat transfer could be detected. For a test gas of 5% CH4 and 95% N2, simulating an atmospheric model for Titanic aerocapture, approximately 4% of the experimentally measured total stagnation point heat transfer was found to be due to radiation. This was in comparison to < 1% measured for a test gas of pure nitrogen. When scaled to the flight vehicle, experimental results indicate a 64% contribution of radiation (test gas 5% CH4/95% N2). Previous numerical results however have predicted this contribution to be between 80-92%. Thus, experimental results from the current study suggest that numerical analyses are over-predicting the radiative heat transfer on the flight vehicle.

Heat of formation of the hydroperoxyl radical HOO via negative ion studies

We present a determination of Delta(f)H(298)(HOO) based upon a negative. ion thermodynamic cycle. The photoelectron spectra of HOO- and DOO- were used to measure the molecular electron affinities (EAs). In a separate experiment, a tandem flowing afterglow-selected ion flow tube (FA-SIFT) was used to measure the forward and reverse rate constants for HOO- + HCdropCH reversible arrow HOOH + HCdropC(-) at 298 K, which gave a value for Delta(acid)H(298)(HOO-H). The experiments yield the following values: EA(HOO) = 1.078 +/- 0.006 eV; T-0((X) over tilde HOO - (A) over tilde HOO) = 0.872 +/- 0.007 eV; EA(DOO) = 1.077 +/- 0.005 eV; T-0((X) over tilde DOO - (A) over tilde DOO) = 0.874 +/- 0.007 eV; Delta(acid)G(298)(HOO-H) = 369.5 +/- 0.4 kcal mol(-1); and Delta(acid)H(298)(HOO-H) = 376.5 +/- 0.4 kcal mol(-1). The acidity/EA thermochemical cycle yields values for the bond enthalpies of DH298(HOO-H) = 87.8 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1) and Do(HOO-H) = 86.6 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1). We recommend the following values for the heats of formation of the hydroperoxyl radical: Delta(f)H(298)(HOO) = 3.2 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1) and Delta(f)H(0)(HOO) = 3.9 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1); we recommend that these values supersede those listed in the current NIST-JANAF thermochemical tables.

Sleep quantity and quality during heat-based training and the effects of cold-water immersion recovery

- Introduction Heat-based training (HT) is becoming increasingly popular as a means of inducing acclimation before athletic competition in hot conditions and/or to augment the training impulse beyond that achieved in thermo-neutral conditions. Importantly, current understanding of the effects of HT on regenerative processes such as sleep and the interactions with common recovery interventions remain unknown. This study aimed to examine sleep characteristics during five consecutive days of training in the heat with the inclusion of cold-water immersion (CWI) compared to baseline sleep patterns. - Methods Thirty recreationally-trained males completed HT in 32 ± 1 °C and 60% rh for five consecutive days. Conditions included: 1) 90 min cycling at 40 % power at VO2max (Pmax) (90CONT; n = 10); 90 min cycling at 40 % Pmax with a 20 min CWI (14 ± 1 °C; 90CWI; n = 10); and 30 min cycling alternating between 40 and 70 % Pmax every 3 min, with no recovery intervention (30HIT; n = 10). Sleep quality and quantity was assessed during HT and four nights of 'baseline' sleep (BASE). Actigraphy provided measures of time in and out of bed, sleep latency, efficiency, total time in bed and total time asleep, wake after sleep onset, number of awakenings, and wakening duration. Subjective ratings of sleep were also recorded using a 1-5 Likert scale. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was completed to determine effect of time and condition on sleep quality and quantity. Cohen's d effect sizes were also applied to determine magnitude and trends in the data. - Results Sleep latency, efficiency, total time in bed and number of awakenings were not significantly different between BASE and HT (P > 0.05). However, total time asleep was significantly reduced (P = 0.01; d = 1.46) and the duration periods of wakefulness after sleep onset was significantly greater during HT compared with BASE (P = 0.001; d = 1.14). Comparison between training groups showed latency was significantly higher for the 30HIT group compared to 90CONT (P = 0.02; d = 1.33). Nevertheless, there were no differences between training groups for sleep efficiency, total time in bed or asleep, wake after sleep onset, number of awakenings or awake duration (P > 0.05). Further, cold-water immersion recovery had no significant effect on sleep characteristics (P > 0.05). - Discussion Sleep plays an important role in athletic recovery and has previously been demonstrated to be influenced by both exercise training and thermal strain. Present data highlight the effect of HT on reduced sleep quality, specifically reducing total time asleep due to longer duration awake during awakenings after sleep onset. Importantly, although cold water recovery accelerates the removal of thermal load, this intervention did not blunt the negative effects of HT on sleep characteristics. - Conclusion Training in hot conditions may reduce both sleep quantity and quality and should be taken into consideration when administering this training intervention in the field.