Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

Radiation effects on natural convection laminar flow from a horizontal circular cylinder

The effect of radiation on natural convection flow from an isothermal circular cylinder has been investigated numerically in this study. The governing boundary layer equations of motion are transformed into a non-dimensional form and the resulting nonlinear systems of partial differential equations are reduced to convenient boundary layer equations, which are then solved numerically by two distinct efficient methods namely: (i) implicit finite differencemethod or the Keller-Box Method (KBM) and (ii) Straight Forward Finite Difference Method (SFFD). Numerical results are presented by velocity and temperature distribution of the fluid as well as heat transfer characteristics, namely the shearing stress and the local heat transfer rate in terms of the local skin-friction coefficient and the local Nusselt number for a wide range of surface heating parameter and radiation-conduction parameter. Due to the effects of the radiation the skin-friction coefficients as well as the rate of heat transfer increased and consequently the momentum and thermal boundary layer thickness enhanced.

Radiation effect on free convection laminar flow along a vertical flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature

The effect of thermal radiation on a steady two-dimensional natural convection laminar flow of viscous incompressible optically thick fluid along a vertical flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature has been investigated in this study. Using the appropriate variables; the basic governing equations are transformed to convenient form and then solved numerically employing two efficient methods, namely, Implicit finite difference method (IFD) together with Keller box scheme and Straight forward finite difference (SFFD) method. Effects of the variation of the physical parameters, for example, conduction-radiation parameter (Planck number), surface temperature parameter, and the amplitude of the surface temperature, are shown on the skin friction and heat transfer rate quantitatively are shown numerically. Velocity and temperature profiles as well as streamlines and isotherms are also presented and discussed for the variation of conduction-radiation parameter. It is found that both skin-friction and rate of heat transfer are enhanced considerably by increasing the values of conduction radiation parameter, Rd.

The effect of temperature dependent viscosity on MHD natural convection flow from an isothermal sphere

Laminar magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) natural convection flow from an isothermal sphere immersed in a fluid with viscosity proportional to linear function of temperature has been studied. The governing boundary layer equations are transformed into a non-dimensional form and the resulting nonlinear system of partial differential equations are reduced to convenient form which are solved numerically by two very efficient methods, namely, (i) Implicit finite difference method together with Keller box scheme and (ii) Direct numerical scheme. Numerical results are presented by velocity and temperature distribution, streamlines and isotherms of the fluid as well as heat transfer characteristics, namely the local skin-friction coefficients and the local heat transfer rate for a wide range of magnetohydrodynamic paramagnet and viscosity-variation parameter.

Scaling analysis of unsteady natural convection boundary layer for instantaneous heating

Natural convection thermal boundary layer adjacent to an instantaneous heated inclined flat plate is investigated through a scaling analysis and verified by direct numerical simulations. It is revealed from the analysis that the development of the boundary layer may be characterized by three distinct stages, i.e. a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady state stage. These three stages can be clearly identified from the numerical simulations. Major scales including the flow velocity, flow development time, and the thermal and viscous boundary layer thicknesses are established to quantify the flow development at different stages and over a wide range of flow parameters. Details of the scaling analysis are described in this paper.

Large-Eddy Simulation of physiological pulsatile non-newtonian flow in a channel with double constriction

Physiological pulsatile flow in a 3D model of arterial double stenosis, using the modified Power-law blood viscosity model, is investigated by applying Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique. The computational domain has been chosen is a simple channel with biological type stenoses. The physiological pulsation is generated at the inlet of the model using the first four harmonics of the Fourier series of the physiological pressure pulse. In LES, a top-hat spatial grid-filter is applied to the Navier-Stokes equations of motion to separate the large scale flows from the subgrid scale (SGS). The large scale flows are then resolved fully while the unresolved SGS motions are modelled using the localized dynamic model. The flow Reynolds numbers which are typical of those found in human large artery are chosen in the present work. Transitions to turbulent of the pulsatile non-Newtonian along with Newtonian flow in the post stenosis are examined through the mean velocity, wall shear stress, mean streamlines as well as turbulent kinetic energy and explained physically along with the relevant medical concerns.

Scaling analysis of the unsteady natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined plate for Pr > 1 following instantaneous heating

The unsteady natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an instantaneously heated inclined plate is investigated using an improved scaling analysis and direct numerical simulations. The development of the unsteady natural convection boundary layer following instantaneous heating may be classified into three distinct stages including a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady state stage, which can be clearly identified in the analytical and numerical results. Major scaling relations of the velocity and thicknesses and the flow development time of the natural convection boundary layer are obtained using triple-layer integral solutions and verified by direct numerical simulations over a wide range of flow parameters.

Natural convection flow in a porous enclosure with localized heating from below

Natural convection flow in a two-dimensional fluid saturated porous enclosure with localized heating from below, symmetrical cooling from the sides and the top and rest of the bottom walls are insulated, has been investigated numerically. Darcy’s law for porous media along with the energy equation based on the 1st law of thermodynamics has been considered. Implicit finite volume method with TDMA solver is used to solve the governing equations. Localized heating is simulated by a centrally located isothermal heat source on the bottom wall, and four different values of the dimensionless heat source length, 1/5, 2/5, 3/5 and 4/5 are considered. The effect of heat source length and the Rayleigh number on streamlines and isotherms are presented, as well as the variation of the local rate of heat transfer in terms of the local Nusselt number from the heated wall. Finally, the average Nusselt number at the heated part of the bottom wall has been shown against Rayleigh number for the non-dimensional heat source length.

Natural convection from a vertical plate embedded in a stratified medium with uniform heat source

Natural convection flow from an isothermal vertical plate with uniform heat source embedded in a stratified medium has been discussed in this paper. The resulting momentum and energy equations of boundary layer approximation are made non-similar by introducing the usual non-similarity transformations. Numerical solutions of these equations are obtained by an implicit finite difference method for a wide range of the stratification parameter, X. The solutions are also obtained for different values of pertinent parameters, namely, the Prandtl number, Pr and the heat generation or absorption parameter, λ and are expressed in terms of the local skin-friction and local heat transfer, which are shown in the graphical form. Effect of heat generation or absorption on the streamlines and isotherms are also shown graphically for different values of λ.

MHD natural convection flow from an isothermal horizontal circular cylinder under consideration of temperature dependent viscosity

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) natural convection laminar flow from an iso-thermal horizontal circular cylinder immersed in a fluid with viscosity proportional to a linear function of temperature will be discussed with numerical simulations. The governing boundary layer equations are transformed into a non-dimensional form and the resulting nonlinear system of partial differential equa-tions are reduced to convenient form, which are solved numerically by two very efficient methods, namely, (i) Implicit finite difference method together with Keller box scheme and (ii) Direct numerical scheme. Numerical results are presented by velocity and temperature distributions of the fluid as well as heat transfer characteristics, namely the shearing stress and the local heat transfer rate in terms of the local skin-friction coefficient and the local Nusselt number for a wide range of magnetohydrodynamic parameter, viscosity-variation parameter and viscous dissipation parameter. MHD flow in this geometry with temperature dependent viscosity is absent in the literature. The results obtained from the numerical simulations have been veri-fied by two methodologies.

Non-Newtonian natural convection flow along an isothermal horizontal circular cylinder using modified power-law model

Laminar two-dimensional natural convection boundary-layer flow of non-Newtonian fluids along an isothermal horizontal circular cylinder has been studied using a modified power-law viscosity model. In this model, there are no unrealistic limits of zero or infinite viscosity. Therefore, the boundary-layer equations can be solved numerically by using marching order implicit finite difference method with double sweep technique. Numerical results are presented for the case of shear-thinning as well as shear thickening fluids in terms of the fluid velocity and temperature distributions, shear stresses and rate of heat transfer in terms of the local skin-friction and local Nusselt number respectively.

Building essential BPM capabilities to assist successful ICT deployment in the developing context : observations and recommendations from Sri Lanka

The role of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) has been identified as an important factor by the United Nations in achieving the millennium development goals (UNAPCICT, 2012)1. The potential for ICT has been identified as a means to reducing poverty, creating global communities by providing access to the internet and mobile networks to rural communities, improving education services, medical services, and information availability. As of today, significant amounts of funds have been invested by the governments and donor organizations in ‘Information and Communication Technologies for Development (ICT4D)’projects by establishing telecenters, e-villages, e-health, electronic and mobile banking, and egovernment systems for citizens in general, and more specifically, rural communities to bridge the digital divide (Heeks & Molla, 2009).

Development of hospital disaster resilience : conceptual framework and potential measurement

Objective Despite ‘hospital resilience’ gaining prominence in recent years, it remains poorly defined. This article aims to define hospital resilience, build a preliminary conceptual framework and highlight possible approaches to measurement. Methods Searches were conducted of the commonly used health databases to identify relevant literature and reports. Search terms included ‘resilience and framework or model’ or ‘evaluation or assess or measure and hospital and disaster or emergency or mass casualty and resilience or capacity or preparedness or response or safety’. Articles were retrieved that focussed on disaster resilience frameworks and the evaluation of various hospital capacities. Result A total of 1480 potentially eligible publications were retrieved initially but the final analysis was conducted on 47 articles, which appeared to contribute to the study objectives. Four disaster resilience frameworks and 11 evaluation instruments of hospital disaster capacity were included. Discussion and conclusion Hospital resilience is a comprehensive concept derived from existing disaster resilience frameworks. It has four key domains: hospital safety; disaster preparedness and resources; continuity of essential medical services; recovery and adaptation. These domains were categorised according to four criteria, namely, robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness and rapidity. A conceptual understanding of hospital resilience is essential for an intellectual basis for an integrated approach to system development. This article (1) defines hospital resilience; (2) constructs conceptual framework (including key domains); (3) proposes comprehensive measures for possible inclusion in an evaluation instrument, and; (4) develops a matrix of critical issues to enhance hospital resilience to cope with future disasters.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.