Property investment, construction and economic growth : the case of Malaysia

It is generally accepted that there is a close relationship between property investment and construction activity. The construction sector plays a crucial role in economic development, especially for a developing nation such as Malaysia. However, the volume of new properties added to the property market is only a fraction of the total volume of the property market. Is the conventional assumption of the relationship between property investment and construction supported by empirical data? This paper revisits the tripartite relationships between economic growths, property investment and construction activities with official Malaysian 2000Q1-2010Q4 quarterly time series data. The Granger causality tests are used to establish the causality runs from the GDP to the value of property transactions, and the growth of construction activities to GDP growth. The result is expected to be useful for policymakers and industrial practitioners in formulating industrial policies and corporate strategies.

Effect of Oil Price on Emissions Trading Market: VAR Analysis

In this study, we investigated the relationship of European Union carbon dioxide CO2 allowances EUAs prices and oil prices by employing a VAR analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response function. If oil price continues increasing, companies will decrease dependency on fossil fuels because of an increase in energy costs. Therefore, the price of EUAs may be affected by variations in oil prices if the greenhouse gases discharged by the consumption of alternative energy are less than that of fossil fuels. There are no previous studies that investigated these relationships. In this study, we analyzed eight types of EUAs EUA05 to EUA12 with a time series daily data set during 2005-2007 collected from a European Climate Exchange time series data set. Differentiations in these eight types were redemption period. We used the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude price as an oil price. From our examination, we found that only the EUA06 and EUA07 types of EUAs Granger-cause oil prices and vice versa and other six types of EUAs do not Granger-cause oil price. These results imply that the earlier redemption period types of EUAs are more sensitive to oil price. In employing the impulse response function, the results showed that a shock to oil price has a slightly positive effect on all types of EUAs for a very short period. On the other hand, we found that a shock to price of EUA has a slightly negative effect on oil price following a positive effect in only EUA06 and EUA07 types. Therefore, these results imply that fluctuations in EUAs prices and oil prices have little effect on each other. Lastly, we did not consider the substitute energy prices in this study, so we plan to include the prices of coal and natural gas in future analyses.

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia

In this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach used in an Australian study of this type to include energy, capital and labour as separate inputs of production. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space, as are conventional inputs capital and labour. We also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between GDP and energy use. Although the evidence of causality from energy use to GDP was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use, once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality, we found strong evidence of Granger causality from energy use to GDP in Australia over the investigated period. The results are robust, irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models, and are applicable for different econometric approaches.

The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the cointegration and causal relationships between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic output in Australia using data for about five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach of this kind to include ICT and non-ICT capital and other factors to examine long-run Granger causality. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between ICT capital and output, and implies that ICT capital Granger causes economic output and multifactor productivity, as does non-ICT capital.

Energy-output linkages in Australia: Implications for emissions reduction policies

The study investigates the long-run and dynamic relationships between energy consumption and output in Australia using a multivariate cointegration and causality framework. Using both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration approaches, the study finds that energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP, and Granger endogeineity in the system. Since the energy sector largely contributes to carbon emissions in Australia, we suggest that direct measures to reduce carbon by putting constraints on the energy consumption would pose significant economic costs for the Australian economy.

Learning approach and perception of learning context in economics education : a causality test

In the study of student learning literature, the traditional view holds that when students are faced with heavy workload, poor teaching, and content that they cannot relate to – important aspects of the learning context, they will more likely utilise the surface approach to learning due to stresses, lack of understanding and lack of perceived relevance of the content (Kreber, 2003; Lizzio, Wilson, & Simons, 2002; Ramdsen, 1989; Ramsden, 1992; Trigwell & Prosser, 1991; Vermunt, 2005). For example, in studies involving health and medical sciences students, courses that utilised student-centred, problem-based approaches to teaching and learning were found to elicit a deeper approach to learning than the teacher-centred, transmissive approach (Patel, Groen, & Norman, 1991; Sadlo & Richardson, 2003). It is generally accepted that the line of causation runs from the learning context (or rather students’ self reported data on the learning context) to students’ learning approaches. That is, it is the learning context as revealed by students’ self-reported data that elicit the associated learning behaviour. However, other research studies also found that the same teaching and learning environment can be perceived differently by different students. In a study of students’ perceptions of assessment requirements, Sambell and McDowell (1998) found that students “are active in the reconstruction of the messages and meanings of assessment” (p. 391), and their interpretations are greatly influenced by their past experiences and motivations. In a qualitative study of Hong Kong tertiary students, Kember (2004) found that students using the surface learning approach reported heavier workload than students using the deep learning approach. According to Kember if students learn by extracting meanings from the content and making connections, they will more likely see the higher order intentions embodied in the content and the high cognitive abilities being assessed. On the other hand, if they rote-learn for the graded task, they fail to see the hierarchical relationship in the content and to connect the information. These rote-learners will tend to see the assessment as requiring memorising and regurgitation of a large amount of unconnected knowledge, which explains why they experience a high workload. Kember (2004) thus postulate that it is the learning approach that influences how students perceive workload. Campbell and her colleagues made a similar observation in their interview study of secondary students’ perceptions of teaching in the same classroom (Campbell et al., 2001). The above discussions suggest that students’ learning approaches can influence their perceptions of assessment demands and other aspects of the learning context such as relevance of content and teaching effectiveness. In other words, perceptions of elements in the teaching and learning context are endogenously determined. This study attempted to investigate the causal relationships at the individual level between learning approaches and perceptions of the learning context in economics education. In this study, students’ learning approaches and their perceptions of the learning context were measured. The elements of the learning context investigated include: teaching effectiveness, workload and content. The authors are aware of existence of other elements of the learning context, such as generic skills, goal clarity and career preparation. These aspects, however, were not within the scope of this present study and were therefore not investigated.

On Presence, Collective Performance and Assumptions of Causality

The ways we assume, observe and model “presence” and its effects are the focus in this paper. Entities with selectively shared presences are the basis of any collective, and of attributions (such as “humorous”, “efficient” or “intelligent”). The subtleties of any joint presence can markedly influence potentials, perceptions and performance of the collective as demonstrated when a humorous tale is counterpoised with disciplined thought. Disciplines build on presences assumed known or knowable while fluid and interpretable presences pervade humor. Explorations in this paper allow considerations of collectives, causality and the philosophy of computing. Economics has long considered issues of collective action in ways circumscribed by assumptions about the presence of economic entities. Such entities are deemed rational but they are clearly not intelligent. To reach its potential, collective intelligence research needs more adequate considerations of alternate presences and their impacts.

Regional aviation and economic growth : cointegration and causality analysis in Australia

Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.

Research on injury compensation and health outcomes : ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion

Objective This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Study Design and Setting Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims—a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. Results When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. Conclusion To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

Consumers' emotional appraisals and action tendencies arising from mobile viral marketing

This study examines consumers' emotional responses to receiving viral mobile marketing communications in comparison to receiving mobile marketing communications where permission has not been given. The study also examines the relationship between these experienced emotions and what action tendencies consumers might consider as a result of these emotions, as well as how they attribute causality for their emotions. Using scenarios in an experimental design, the findings show that there are differences in consumer emotions as a result of the two marketing approaches. The findings also identify relationships between consumers' causal attributions and action tendencies in relation to themselves, the friend sending the viral m-marketing communication and the company involved.